Is Alibaba value trap? Understanding Alibaba's Scale and Business Model 1/ Alibaba has the largest GMV in the world, nearly $1.5 trillion. Combine Amazon + PDD, or PDD + JD, and even other platforms—Alibaba's scale still can't be matched. $baba

@zoomyzoomm @FIREvLondon Great advice

@zoomyzoomm That's actually bold move. As WB says, Diversification is protection against ignorance. I also have a big position in $PDD and own $TCEHY as well.

@joecarlsonshow 100x revenue,and growing 30% YoY. This needs to grow for the next 20 years just to justify the revenue alone. How many companies have you seen grow 30% for about 20 year? Whatever this 20% revenue rule is, it applies to more reasonable valuations.

@zoomyzoomm Oh man! We've seen this before a few times,didn't we? I am long for $pdd and $tcehy anyway

RT @ruima: Lololol

@LunchInvesting Thanks

@AJButton2 $BABA is losing market share to $PDD because they have a stronger low-cost M2C advantage. E-commerce is a low-barrier-to-entry business, and having a low-cost advantage while working directly with manufacturers is a great advantage over others. It will make them safer.

@kevinlhr88 Source please?

@timothyhliu5 Thanks no English subtitles can't understand. Thanks anyway

To be successful investors, one needs to be interested in how the world works and how businesses operate.

What makes great companies are not only their products and customers, but their people. I’ve recently realized this is something I’ve always overlooked when investing in a company. When #CharlieMunger said, “The most important thing is not to interrupt compounding unnecessarily,” he meant that this is only possible if you invest in great companies and hold them for the long term. To invest in great companies, you need to find great valuations as well. So far, I’ve focused too much on products, customers, competition, and business economics, but I’ve always overlooked the people. People are the ones who turn good companies into great ones: $TSLA, $BRK.A, $AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $AAPL. Here’s an example about deep learning and why people are so important. Google $GOOGL has been working on deep learning for many years. They started researching this field long before anyone else. They had all the resources in the world to make it happen. If you’d asked anyone following this field, they would have told you Google was far ahead. But then OpenAI disrupted everything with #ChatGPT. #OpenAI put all the other companies behind with their LLMs. Now Google and others are trying to catch up, but they’re far behind compared to ChatGPT. Google had massive data from its search business and unlimited money, but they couldn’t make it happen before ChatGPT. On the other hand, ChatGPT was initially funded by #ElonMusk as a non-profit organization. A group of ambitious people who believed in AI created LLMs with limited resources compared to Google’s billions of dollars. How did this happen? If you listen to #SamAltman you’ll see how much he believes in AI and its future. He’s passionate about his work. It’s not just about money for him—it’s his childhood dream, as he explained in a recent interview. #ElonMusk, #JeffBezos, #WarrenBuffett #SteveJobs and more who created something valuable for themselves and others all shared the same ambitions. For example, when Warren Buffett took over Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A it was one inch away from bankruptcy. Look at the value has been created over many years.. The definition of great businesses isn’t just about products, customers, or balance sheets—it’s about the people

Over the years, Warren Buffett has gotten a lot of questions about how he values businesses, thinks about risks, and identifies real opportunities. Many books have been written trying to teach his methods, but I'd like to share his explanation from the 2005 Berkshire annual meeting on why he invested in PetroChina and how he thought about valuations and risks. It's simple but not easy. 👇 ------ Warren Buffett We bought PetroChina a few years ago, again after reading the annual report, and fortunately, it was in English. It was the first Chinese stock—and really the last one we've owned so far. We put about $400 million into it at the time. It still produces about three percent of the world's oil, which is a lot. It produces probably 80 percent or so as much as ExxonMobil will produce. It's a huge company. Last year, it earned $12 billion. If you look at the Fortune 500 list, my guess is you won't find more than about five companies in the United States that earn $12 billion or more. At the time we bought it, the total market value was $35 billion. So, we bought it at about three times what it earned last year. It does not have unusual amounts of leverage. In the annual report, they say something very few companies do but which I think is fairly important. They state they will pay out about 45 percent of the amount they earn. If you can buy it at three times earnings—which turned out to be three times earnings—you get 45 percent of 33 percent. You're getting a 15 percent cash yield on your investment. It's a very good annual report. We would have bought more, but the price jumped up. We are happy to have our 1.3 percent or whatever it is. We think they’ve done a good job running the business. They’ve got large gas reserves, which they’re starting to develop now. It’s a very major enterprise that employs almost 500,000 people. A few years ago, relatively few people in the investment world probably even thought about PetroChina. It was a much larger business than almost any oil company in the world, except for BP and ExxonMobil. I should emphasize, had any contact with the management before we bought the stock. We never attended an investor presentation or anything of the sort. The annual report of PetroChina was easy to read and understandable. They declared their policies, and anybody could get it and read it. We just sat in the office, read those things, and were able to put $400 million out. That’s now worth about a billion or two. It was interesting at the time. I think I’m right on this. At the time. Warren Buffett - 2004 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

@ahern_brendan How can I watch the video?

I’d suggest everyone read Tulipomania. It’s about how people sold their valuables, livestock, and homes to buy a single tulip bulb, hoping someone else would pay more. Another good book about manias and bubbles is TrendWatching.

@andrewrsorkin @dealbook @andrewrsorkin great questions great interviews! Thank you

For me, the question is: if I am wrong, what would I lose? It’s hard to predict which stock will outperform over 3 or 5 years, as there are many variables. I can’t be certain which will appreciate more, but I can analyze today what I think the potential downside is and assess what I might lose if I’m wrong with my investment in $BABA. Investment isn’t about chasing speculative returns; it’s about achieving steady portfolio growth over many years.

Worth a read $INTC