@Big_Orrin Agreed with Qatar. On the other hand seems probable Trump tries to bully countries into signing contracts in exchange for not having tariffs - similar to the Japan visit the other day

@Big_Orrin If there are beneficiaries it’ll be outside the US - likely LNG exports. The nuclear approval piece is interesting but even with faster approvals that’s a multi-decade event.

@aaronmchow @Caveatlector12 The asset is total garbage as anyone who knows anything about oil and gas in the US knows (and I know you know). The idea that capital isn’t plentiful if this asset were 1/10 as good as is claimed is absurd.

@TaviCosta Chinese construction/industrial demand is still larger than demand for the energy transition and is a significant risk to copper demand. The bull case feels overly consensus imo.

@WAR527 None of the main operators are trying to grow production this year, and budgets are set. Unless he’s going to give a subsidy for drilling I’ve no idea what he can really do.

@BillBrewsterTBB @UpslopeCapital Billions over a long period of time.

@Wexboy_Value Or we’ll just go full Japan with rate suppression / Fed buying to monetize.

@Wexboy_Value That's just not the political culture of this country I feel confident saying living here. This administration can cut foreign aid and all the DEI programs they want, it'll barely move the deficit. It's all easy and ignores the hard decisions which need to be made

@Wexboy_Value The issue is actually exemplified by what you said further down your thread - we're focused on shutting down USAID rather than entitlements or defence which drive bulk of the deficit.

@max_gagliardi @EnergyCynic 1) This just means the importer is making less profit which reduces the capital they have to spend or invest. The accounting net is the same 2) You said we would get a trillion instantly and now you need more incentives for US businesses to invest? 3) Down to the fed

@max_gagliardi @EnergyCynic Yeah - that’s the part which is fantasy. The system is dynamic, you can’t raise the price of everything by 25% and have US consumers spend the same amount. How would that be possible?

@max_gagliardi @EnergyCynic Well we just got 25% tariffs so I’ll watch out for the 50% cut in the deficit you’ve asserted is imminent.

@max_gagliardi @EnergyCynic Complete fantasy.

@msttrader @anasalhajji We can’t make gasoline without Canadian heavier oil due to the way refineries are set up. It’s not about pumping more.

@GSpier Guy even if that was 100% true, that isn’t why he’s in jail. That decision had no jail time. It’s because he decided not to respect that judgement repeatedly and was convicted of contempt of court. They are different things which you are conflating.

@GSpier It’s irrelevant because he breached the court order, knowingly, and I think the allusions that somehow there is some conspiracy to jail him are ridiculous and unsubstantiated as I said. Agree to disagree.

@DeepSailCapital @APazyryk But the Federal government spent $6 trillion in 2023. So $10bn isn’t even pocket change. There are like 2.5m civilian personnel. Get rid of half and if they make 200 grand each that’s $250bn. Doesn’t touch the sides.