RAWenergy
@WAR527
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Top guru all things energy; multi-millionaire CEO; Pres. local chapter, 'Liar's Anonymous'
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Prof Damodoran, a noted expert on corporate valuation, just updated his data through '22. An article and chart on his site shows how FCF (either FCFF or FCFE) SHOULD be calculated. I have calculated it similarly for decades, since well before E&P mgts bast***ized the defn
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Tough day. Sorry to say that my younger sister, Cathy, passed away today from complications of ALS. Although the end result was expected, the timing was not, and she is definitely one who will be missed.
She was instrumental in getting the recent ALS legislation adopted,
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Serious question: Do readers want to see summaries and/or analysis of E&P releases, etc.? Cos are about to ramp up their disclosures for reserves, financials, presentations, guidance, etc., and while I do review most or all or those, I do not need to post them here if they /1
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Do readers find the posts re earnings useful? I do it mostly for myself so I can go back and review easily. If it is a bother in the Twitterverse just let me know
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Too much sharing tonight ... a bit nostalgic. Please pray for my younger sister, who found out a year ago she has ALS. She is enrolled in a stem cell program at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN and has a progress report tomorrow. Thanks!😢
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I despise buybacks. Give investors a bigger dividend and let them decide if a co. deserves to have its shares purchased, rather than leave it in the hands of incentivized mgts. That is all.
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On a more serious note, ‘Good Friday’ was hardly that for our family, as our son had to be hospitalized due to COVID. He is roughly the same age as many of you, was an athlete in college and is in good health otherwise, but he was not concerned about wearing a mask, about /1
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This is more like it!
Exxon Mobil is closing in on a deal to buy Pioneer Natural Resources, a blockbuster takeover that could be worth roughly $60 billion
via
@WSJ
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The bubble chart below depicts the nat gas hedging status of ~45 cos. for the remainder of '21, when hedging positions are the highest. It does not include basis swaps, NGLs, is not Pro Forma for deals that were in progress, etc. Research should be done to confirm. Test case.
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@AdrianCovert
@nytimes
Boats did not sink. They were merely going to evaluate the safety of the lakebed.
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$CVX's latest 'FU' to politicians-- $75 B repo
Chevron Increases Quarterly Dividend; Announces $75B Stock Repurchase Program
-
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To my Mom, 2 days gone 😢
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I have several quarts of oil in my garage that I have been holding in reserve for emergency use. I now plan to release them into the market in the coming days. We all need to do our part. You're welcome.
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Today is remembered as the Ides of March, but for me it will always be remembered as the day my sister, Cathy, passed away. Only 2 years after discovery in what we thought would be a 2-5 year battle. I think about her every day and regret that I was not there for her more.
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Six oil drillers have shut offshore production following an oil spill that’s shaping up to be the largest in the US since the Deepwater Horizon disaster
via
@markets
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$CDEV: Congratulations to Will Hickey and the Colgate team for executing their grow and sell/merge strategy to near perfection! I cannot remember a non-public co I have received more comments and DMs about than Colgate ... all along the lines of "when do you think they will
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What follows is my own review of the $XEC/ $COG Proxy, which may be too long for some and too short for others. Hard to summarize something as long as a Proxy on Twitter using Twitter text, so I have typed it in Word and am copying it into Twitter as a jpeg; hope it works!
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WSJ...Shale companies are generating record amounts of cash. Instead of more drilling, they are paying off debt and sharing it with investors.
via
@WSJ
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@brutapologist
So McConnell has been sitting on that bill as well as the House stimulus bill since Spring. And that Trump ceased negotiations with Dems so he could step in and "save" everyone with his EOs, then blame Dems, even though he had the last say? Gotcha.
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Chevron plans to sell its current headquarters in California and is offering to move some employees to Texas
via
@WSJ
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Today's epiphany: I'm beginning to believe that (-$37/bbl) may have been the low for oil prices
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FINALLY! First deal for 2024: $APA to buy $CPE. A $CPE deal has been high on the list of rumored deals to me, so now it is public. All-stock transaction valued at $4.5 B overall will generate some interesting discussions about use of cash flow and B/S
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Once again a reminder that E&P stocks climb the stairs on the way up, then jump out the window on the way down
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@ProjectLincoln
It's at times like these that I feel REALLY old! But obviously smarter! 😉
1976 Ford
1980 - 1984 Reagan
1988 - 1992 GHWB
1996 Dole
2000 - 2004 GWB
2008 McCain
2012 Romney
2016 None
2020 Biden
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Ok, what else do I have to do on a Sat. night but design around-the-world travel itineraries within Texas for Texans on a budget?! Here goes a longer version for adventurous travelers!
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Reuters Exclusive: Energy producer Ovintiv nears $4 billion Permian oil deal
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E&P earnings so far: "Everything is great; better than ever before."
Investors (so far): "Yes, as expected. But what have you done for us lately?"
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Following through with a commitment I made to myself to go through the $XEC/ $COG proxy, all 200+ pages. Trying to summarize and condense is not going as I had hoped, partly because I teared up when I saw the fees and exec comp packages! I will try to post something tomorrow
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OMG, the stock market crashed today, -3%
Oct. 19., 1987 --- hold my beer (-22%)
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toward govt control, masks, lockdowns, etc.
End of rant, which I expect will do little to change readers' feelings but makes me feel a bit better.
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Investors discovering that the Fayetteville and Haynesville are, in fact, two distinct shale plays. $XOM
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$DVN to acquire Encap Bakken portco Grayson Mill for $5 B, consisting of $3.25 B in cash and $1.75 B in stock. Expands stock repo.
PR:
Presentation:
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The U.S. loves solar power, but the panels are made using Chinese coal. Governments and companies are looking for emissions cuts at the source. via
@WSJ
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The headline you probably will not see today: "Counterparties rake in $12 B in profits from E&P hedges"
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Is Sen. Warren going after the turkey lobby because she heard that deep fried turkey was cooked in oil? Asking for most everybody, I think
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OK, WHO ISSUES A PRESS RELEASE ON A SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUMMER?
$CVX, that's who. IR Dept clearly got heatstroke. Beats reduced guidance; Permian production +11%.
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Awesome strategy! $CVX swoops in while $XOM is "busy" and agrees to buy $HES for $53B in stock. Also interesting is that there were no expectations that $HES was ready to sell, no co. statements for same and no leaks!!
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Very interesting deal announced today, for many reasons. As
@Landmannery
posted earlier, Surge Energy has agreed to acquire Grenadier Energy Partners II for $420 mm. The backstory behind Grenadier is interesting by itself. Gren II was formed in 2012 by EnCap and Kayne, /1
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Today my mind is still in Glacier National Park, this time to a place I have never been to ... because it is not accessible to many visitors. The still shot of the moving water in the 3 different falls (Triple Falls) with the sun barely peeking over the mtn. is so relaxing ..zzz
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Last post on this, to give people some idea of the person my sister was. Hard to pick best picture from among many more! Love you, sis! 💗
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are not of general interest to many. Feel free to respond below or via DM, or simply by clicking 'like' to show interest in such going forward. Any suggestions or other comments (usually!) appreciated.
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Reuters: Enverus says US may blow through its storage limit by fall if Haynesville activity does not slow
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$VTLE agrees to buy Point Energy for $1.1 B, with $NOG taking 20% of deal.
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New thread for large, "secretive" lists of E&P cos. in each basin, esp those who might be interested in an exit or are likely targets ... worthwhile?
Appalachia - Ascent, Encino, PennEnergy ... ?
Haynesville - Aethon, Rockcliff ... ?
Bakken - Grayson Mill ...?
Rockies - Terra, ?
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$TALO Announces Acquisition of QuarterNorth Energy for $1.29 B in cash and stock
PR:
Presentation:
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Gearing up for acquisitions?
$PR Announces $500.0 Million Private Placement of Additional 7.000% Senior Notes Due 2032
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Not seeing much of a groundswell to repeal the Jones Act, one of the most outdated of all "energy polices." Free the NE USA!
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E&P 2022 Capex apples vs. Production oranges: I get a kick out of seeing E&P capex and production estimates that compare the previous year to the current year. In fact, this year maybe more so than ever before. I’m not sure anyone but myself will find this interesting, but
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Hart Energy list of top 25 private operators, in order of BOE/d. Oil producer list shrinking, natty not so much (yet). As of YE23.
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$MCF: Transaction with KKR confirmed; essentially a rollup/smashco of several different E&P entities including $MCF. KKR and its affiliates will own a majority of the equity and will manage the co via mgt svs agts; $MCF will be a consolidated sub pursuing acquisitions.
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If $CHK/ $SWN do agree to merge as rumored, I pick $DVN/ $MRO as the next most likely merger... or not.
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Morningstar Partners LP, formed by fmr. XTO execs Simpson, Hutton and Venneberg, file S-1 to create TXO Energy Partners. Acreage 846k gross/460k net in Permian and San Juan Basins. 130mmboe proved reserves, 23kboepd. No terms disclosed
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Reminder to E&P officers overseeing M&A: Time is running out on 2023 opportunities. Need to buy something so your reserves won't decline by year-end?Need to prop up those "accretive" metrics to meet bonus objectives? "Friendly" competition got you down? Time's a'wastin'; call now
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M&A tied to Parker & Parsley:
2020 -- Parsley Energy (Brian Sheffield, son of $PXD CEO Scott) sold to $PXD for $4.5 B
2021 -- Concho Resources (Tim Leach) sold to $COP for $13.3 B
2023 -- $PXD (Scott Sheffield et al) to be sold to $XOM for $60 B
2024 -- Crownquest (Tim Dunn)?
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(Boy, who could have predicted this one!)
Blackstone-backed gas producer GeoSouthern exploring $2 billion sale -sources
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What better way to spend a July 4 weekend than reviewing a deal Proxy, amirite? In this case, I mean the deal between $SWN and Indigo Resources, which was announced June 2. $SWN agreed to issue 339 mm shares of stock, valued at $1.6 B, and pay Indigo S/Hs $400 mm in cash.
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$SM breakout and parabolic move despite the absolute worst hedge book, with 75-80% of 2Q-4Q oil production hedged at ~$40. 🚀🤡
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I am going to apologize in advance for the length of this thread by the time I am done. We’ll see how it goes…
$CPE reported a net loss of $2.5 B for 2020, primarily due to impairments. Adjusted EBITDA was $710 mm and FCF was $11 mm ($122 mm in “adjusted FCF” over the last /1
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E&P news of the day: Colgate (Energy, not the University) agrees to buy $500 mm in Permian assets from $OXY. As usual, "core" assets for Colgate, "non-strategic" assets for $OXY.
This follows closely an all-stock deal that Colgate did to acquire Luxe Energy earlier this
/1
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tracheotomy to allow her to breathe, and her appendix ruptured. She's "ok" now, but NO ONE DESERVES IT, not even your worst enemy. And she is an angel on earth. 😭
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Breaking news: More than a dozen E&Ps are looking into a merger with CrownRock, which has announced it may sell. ... RAW
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Or maybe they should be the acquiree rather than the acquirer?
Devon Energy has been studying major acquisitions, including potential takeovers of Marathon Oil and CrownRock
via
@markets
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A few thoughts for the day: (1) If E&P mgts want investors and others to trust them more, why not quit the silly insistence on publishing wellhead IRRs?; (2) Similar to (1), quit publishing single year "FCF" figures without extrapolation further, preferably through debt
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In recent ***BROKEN NEWS ***, PE bros continue their very successful rounds of portco sales/exits. First up was NGP, which in Apr. was reported by Reuters to be offering its Hibernia and Tap Rock assets/portcos for up to $7 B. The announced sales were for $5.7 B, including
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This is not a plea for pageviews here or on Seeking Alpha, but I will be posting links to 5 "recent" articles I wrote so that hopefully anyone wishing to read them can by SA's paywalls. No biggie to me either way, but it is more or less a test case.
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No cynicism to this post ... Thank you to the people who have helped me reach 5,000 followers (ok, 1 short at the moment, but assuming ...). It is truly appreciated. For the many recent adds, please don't expect me to toe the corporate lines of cos., but hopefully I can help
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I am running a special, only 96 followers from 3,000. If you agree to follow me, I will let you .... Ends Sunday!!
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$VTLE and $BTE rushing to extend maturities while the market window is open. "Raise capital when you can, not when you have to"
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Is there interest in providing co. PR, Presentation and other links here? If it's just more clutter I can cease. Have fallen behind on analysis due to a health issue that may limit work a bit.
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For sale: One U5 boys' soccer team. 8 players, including 1 who has skill, 5 with some form of ADHD. Top skills include hanging on goal, watching other team dribble down and score ...repeatedly, scoring own goals, snacks. Parents included. $1 includes ball, cones, whistle
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$CIVI to buy Vencer (Vitol) assets in Midland Basin for $1.55B in cash + 7.3 mm shares of stock = $2.1 B total. Priced at 2.8X '24 FCF and provides 5% uplift to FCF (with ~75% of pp in cash!)
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Sheffield: "Now that we have just spent $14 B to acquire 2 cos., we would like to warn other cos. about trying to spend too much as oil prices rise. Thank you for your support."
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My personal lesson in not taking things, and friends, and family, for granted. Tomorrow is not promised for anyone....
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Now that I read my post, a Colgate/Luxe/Oxy tie in looks like an ad for a new toothpaste!! "New and improved: Colgate Luxe toothpaste now with Oxy-clean!"😉
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@JenniferJJacobs
"You're getting COVID ... You're getting COVID too ... All of you are getting COVID!"
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