Paper Bag Investor
@PaperBagInvest
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Searching for high-conviction, multiBAGger investment opportunities. Look from many angles, research deep, then invest big. 29% CAGR since 2009. IT’S IN THE BAG
Canada
Joined July 2020
With many newcomers looking at $LMND 🍋 for the first time, I created a video introducing the thesis: The @Lemonade_Inc Bull Thesis in 20 Minutes
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RT @bjmtweets: Reminder: $LMND could already be profitable. It's all about scale and becoming an autonomous organization. This is why we mo…
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New $LMND 8K
$LMND has renewed their @generalcatalyst growth financing for 2026 with the same terms (16% IRR and they can finance up to 80% of total growth spend with it). The maximum amount they can possibly borrow is increasing, from: ▪️$150M in 2024 ▪️$140M in 2025 ▪️$200M in 2026 This likely means that in 2026 we will see continued acceleration in their growth spend. For reference, @Lemonade_Inc's growth investment will likely be: ▪️~$120M in 2024 ▪️~$168M in 2025 ▪️Maybe $200M+ in 2026?? 8-K details attached
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@Ashton_1nvests $LMND
With many newcomers looking at $LMND 🍋 for the first time, I created a video introducing the thesis: The @Lemonade_Inc Bull Thesis in 20 Minutes
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@MatchasmMatt Haha I was just going to post this! Imagine the gains if someone had actively traded the two whenever the ratio went out of whack..
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Someone from the $LMND 🍋 community messaged me recently, saying their friend lives at the top of a hill in an SF Bay Area community where traditional insurers have stopped providing coverage due to high wildfire risks. However, Lemonade still insures homes there, but at a higher premium. The neighbourhood is rated 8/10 on the fire factor according to Is Lemonade taking on unusually high risk, or does its risk assessment model suggest lower risk than other insurers perceive? @shai_wininger @daschreiber
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Every time Institutional flows have reappeared on the 4hr chart, the average move seen thereafter is 70%. It just reappeared. $LMND
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@ArranGray9 What’s the approximate timeline for thereafter typically been? Or just coincides with a major event like earnings?
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I still have trouble seeing how $LMND 🍋 will spend 40% more on growth in 2025 (ie, spending ~$168M), but only grow to $1.2B of In Force Premium. Would be 26% growth if Q4 is $950M. I am modelling potentially $1.3B or thereabouts for the end of 2025. Something at least north of ~$1250M seems more realistic. I’ll be releasing a Q4/2025 preview video where I’ll look at it all in detail.
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I still have trouble seeing how $LMND 🍋 will spend 40% more on growth in 2025 (ie, spending ~$168M), but only grow to $1.2B of In Force Premium. Would be 26% growth if Q4 is $950M. I am modelling potentially $1.3B or thereabouts for the end of 2025. Something at least north of ~$1250M seems more realistic. I’ll be releasing a Q4/2025 preview video where I’ll look at it all in detail.
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@ArranGray9 It looks good. $LMND does a really good job of reports imo. The average report from most companies is much much worse.
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