Floebertus
@Floebertus
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Result of 10 positive quarters of micro cap investing
H1 24: +10%
2023: +42%
2022: +66%
Fun quarter with big wins on new positions in $SOWG, $DBA group and $NCI.V, offsetting weakness in $4mass
Better late than never. :)
Q1 2024: +7%
Top positions March 31st:
1. 4Mass
2. Decibel cannabis
3. Atende sa
4. Canaf investments
5. Euro-tax sa
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Ahum ... Poland is a great place for hunting for Microcaps, in this thread, I dig through the find the most profitable, cheap, high quality stocks in this market with 701 stocks, across Newconnect and GPW, based on the screener I made myself 🧵🧵👇👇👇🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱
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Poland is an interesting hunting ground for micro-caps!
Did you know there are 715 listed companies in Poland, and ~ 80% are microcaps?
Which is your favorite?
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I just submitted a quick post on my favorite company, on Micro Cap Club. Here's a quick summary of the thesis, for your input and thoughts. 👇🧵
Before buying/selling, make sure to do your own analysis, and point out the gaps in mine.
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Poland is an interesting hunting ground for micro-caps! 🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱
Today we will sift through 721 listed companies in Poland, of which ~ 80% are microcaps...
Which is your favorite? 🧵🧵🧵
#GPW
#Newconnect
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Itssss time for the Q1 Update!!!! 🚨
Poland is a great place for hunting for Microcaps, in this thread, I dig through the find the most profitable, cheap, high quality stocks in this market with 696 stocks, across Newconnect and GPW
🧵🧵🧵🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱
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Waauw,
@AltaFoxCapital
really nailed this one...
Daktronics 4x this year $DAK
Still even looks cheap at 13x past 6 months earnings
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Every Polish company on GPW:
Ladies and gents shareholders, now that we have uplisted from NC to GPW, we're going to stop reporting Q4 on valentines day and instead send you a 120p report end of April in untranslatable xhtml.xades format, with 50 Mb in photos of our employees
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4Mass announces extra-ordinary general meeting to vote in a buy-back plan covering up to 4% of the shares, at a price between 3 and 13 PLN
Cheers lol 🍾
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Three reasons why Polish stocks are better than other European/US stocks:
1. Lower valuations / Higher GDP growth
2. Clear investor calendar with upcoming earnings
3. Clear buyback price windows set (Inspired by WEB)
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Here we go again... on popular demand 😀
The Polish market is more active than ever, offering >700 listed companies. 🇵🇱🇵🇱
Which are the diamonds in the rough? Which am I missing? Let's check it out 🧵👇👇👇🙃
Updated for Q2 2023:
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So...
With all that, here's 18 interesting Polish stocks, some microcaps, and some known names:
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Sold my stake in Spyrosoft. Still like it a lot, but think there’s more value in other things - though to let go after the 197% rise in the past 18mo. Replaced it with S4E, another Polish micro-cap..... 🧵👇👇👇
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Returns of 8 quarters of micro cap investing...
2022: 66%
2023: 42%
Past quarter was pretty weak. Main winner Synektik, main loser Careerlink japan. Sitting on my hands a lot.
Returns of 7 quarters of micro cap investing...
Q1 2022: 3% (Only Spyrosoft)
Q2 2022: 35% (Only Spyrosoft)
Q3 2022: 3% Mistake WriteUp co
Q4 2022: 16%
Q1 2023: 3% Mistake Centralnic
Q2 2023: 28% Everything working out a bit
Q3 2023: 5% 4Mass up, Wittchen down
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$Exa, Examobile.
The company is great but has only 1 employee.
Meanwhile, the employee ..... 🇵🇱🐊
I think Examobile S.A. $EXA is one of the funniest stocks around. A Polish maker of mobile games, extremely cheap:
PE is 7.5
TEV/FCF is 4
What's the catch?
It is basically one dude making apps. The annual report only lists 1 full-time employee....
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Retweet if you like my balls
Notes (1/n)
- Mexpolska earnings was just covid stimulus
- Muza driven by rodzina Monet
- Elektrotim seems to keep adding one-off contracts
- Digital network looks great but suspicious (related party trans)
- S4E narrow margin but keeps going
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Do you like momentum? I sure do.
Momentum is one of the most counter-intuitive factors. Intuition says "buy cheap, and buy the dip", but data says, "winners win" ...
Filtering for positive momentum, we retain 16 Polish stonks...
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So... With all that, here's 17 interesting Polish stocks, some microcaps, and some known names:
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Every now and then Eurosnack $ECK looks very attractive to me - but I can't invest in it....
Last summer, they figured it would be a good idea to hand out 5% of the company to a sales director
Count this as salary, and the earnings multiple is 25x instead of 11x 🤮
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Microcaps I studied that multibagged the past 2 years
Spyrosoft - 3x
S4e - 3x (sold after 20% rise 😅)
Xplus - 2x but ~no liquidity
4mass - 2.5x
- 2x
The key is sifting through the 99% rubble and identifying the real gems.
Most days you don't find any
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Like your pumpkins to carry some momentum? Avoid the market smelling out something you didn't?
Momentum is the most counter-intuitive factor. I keep getting less strict on it but removed some dropping daggers.
We retain 20 potential diamonds in rough... Which do you like?
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@PeterHamby
My girlfriend: Why is Facebook down?
Me: Combination of me buying the stock and karma ...
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Today 4Mass jumped as CEO Joanna Kasperska disclosed that she had bought another 0.1% of the company on Friday after earnings
Joanna and her team have been increasing their stake in 4Mass through insider buying, and company buybacks, consistently for over a year now
$4MS
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When you find a new Polish microcap gem, and you realise now you have 50 tabs of regulated filings to translate before rejecting your thesis...
#Newconnect
🇵🇱🇵🇱🇵🇱
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Main positions going into Q1:
1. 4mass sa
2. Decibel cannabis
3. Suntech sa
4. Atende sa
5. Euro-tax sa
These are getting more illiquid so please handle with care.
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Better late than never. :)
Q1 2024: +7%
Top positions March 31st:
1. 4Mass
2. Decibel cannabis
3. Atende sa
4. Canaf investments
5. Euro-tax sa
Returns of 8 quarters of micro cap investing...
2022: 66%
2023: 42%
Past quarter was pretty weak. Main winner Synektik, main loser Careerlink japan. Sitting on my hands a lot.
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@willis_cap
It makes no sense. Goog is also growing significantly faster.
Now try to add $KO to that mix to get your mind blown.
Anyway that's basically the start of my investing process. Plot EV/EBIT vs growth. Then think about the business
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I think this time of year, to make alpha, one can just:
1. List 50 growing small/microcaps with growth >20%, PEG ratio < 2, margin >5%
2. Check for clear insider buying in the past 30 days
3. Buy and hold until q4 results
Not doing for the moment but seems to always work
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Do you like momentum? I sure do.
Momentum is one of the most counter-intuitive factors. Intuition says "buy cheap, and buy the dip", but data says, "winners win"...
I've been a bit less strict on momentum, we retain 19 Polish stonks...
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Slawomir Lutek, chairman of 4Mass, bought some more stock last week, of his own company. (0.2% of the mkt cap)
This purchase has the same size as the insider buys of the CEO 2 weeks ago, although she hit it at ~10% lower price.
We like it when we see it.
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Time for a quick thread on my favorite cannabis stock.
Decibel cannabis has captured 7.5% of the cannadian cannabis market, grows 60%+ and is currently priced at about 4.5x earnings. 🧵🧵🧵👇👇👇
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Q1 reports are in - I updated the picture of Polish gold nugget stocks - Several fell out as momentum or ROE fell back, but most kept doing excellent. We welcome 7Fit in the list after a blow-out Q1.
Disclosure: I own the 4 cheapies on the right except Netwise (delisting)
🥳
Do you like momentum? I sure do.
Momentum is one of the most counter-intuitive factors. Intuition says "buy cheap, and buy the dip", but data says, "winners win" ...
Filtering for positive momentum, we retain 16 Polish stonks...
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Today 4Mass sa reported
Revenue +65%
Expenses +40%
Net profit +250%
- Product expansion into skin care
- Geo expansion into Latam
- Healthy cash position even after a small acquisition
Stock up a decent 40% in the past 7 wks.
Favorite position keeps ticking the boxes:
Current Quarterly EPS up 95% YoY
Annual Earnings double upon double
New 2yr High, new products
Skin in the game (CEO owns 10%)
Leading market share growth
Institutions getting in (Uplisting)
Market idc
Keeps performing -> I keep adding
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@Atulsingh_asan
Buffett bought Berkshire from 60 to 65 and he bought American Express in 1964 during the salad oil crisis.
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Americans and Canadians often underestimate the power of the Polish economy, many times larger than the French or German economies
Rzeczywisty rozmiar polskiej gospodarki względem innych krajów Europy.
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Busy holiday season at 4Mass sa:
- Completed their skin care investment (factory) and filed to receive the subsidy
- Completed their tiny bolt on merger with Cosmex sa
- CEO Joanna K. bought shares for 60kEur (0.2% of mkt between Xmass and New Year. 🍾🍾🍾
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lol just found this coincidentally...
My first find. Oldie but goldie.
Should have written it up on
@MicroCapClub
, it's a great community I meanwhile have joined
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I found my own way to a first multi bagger 2 years ago with Spyrosoft, but
@PaulAndreola
helped connect the dots and converting it into a process.... A process for consistently winning with hidden micro-caps, providing superior investments versus much discussed large caps
Paul Andreola (
@PaulAndreola
) nailed a 100-bagger ($XPEL) by using a very focused investment strategy.
He runs a newsletter called small cap discoveries.
Here's what we can learn from his investment process in 13 easy steps:
👇
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Updating this one after today's report. Organic growth and margin expansion at work.
1. Over the past 7 yrs, 4Mass sa has delivered exceptional growth, from 1.1m to 90m, a 92% CAGR.
In the short to mid-term, I expect 4Mass to extend its current growth path, growing from 0.5-1% to 5-10% market share in the European nail polish market, driven by its hybrid formula
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I had a quick look at Sescom.
Looks good at first sight (6x earnings, 50% growth, nice chart) ...
... but after some cleaning up of the numbers, looks more like 13x earnings and 20-30% organic growth, so reasonably priced, not the best out there.
On to the next
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@JG_VALUE_GROWTH
, thank you for sharing this one. I don't really like dried nuts, so will reply with makaroni polska:
Rev +11% Yoy (6M/6M)
EBITDA +50%
EPS +105%
PE 5.5x (LTM)
@BrowarekMateusz
@IggyOnInvesting
@ToffCap
@uv_shares
@david_katunaric
@systvest
@DomanGPW
ATLANTA POLAND - one of the largest company operating in Poland on the wholesale market of dried fruit and nuts 🧐📈
Rev +11% yoy
EBIT +124%
Net profit +107%
ROIC 19,3%
PE 5,4x
PB 0,80x
market cap 80 mln PLN
@Floebertus
@BrowarekMateusz
@IggyOnInvesting
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Gold is ripping today, as someone on Reddit suggested that "It's basically physical bitcoin" ...
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3/ Autopartner is the great cheap Polish compounder for those who this 1 billion $ market cap is a smallcap :). One hell of a chart though. Cheers
@LukeWolgram
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Nice insider buy at 4Mass - Chairman bought 140k PLN worth of this 100m PLN company in the open market last week.
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Dilution is not always a bad thing.
The best companies need to raise capital to fund assets and ingredients to grow their business and deliver products and services to customers. This provides the biggest opportunities out there for investors
Look at 4Mass, or Sow Good $SOWG
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Returns of 6 quarters of micro cap investing...
Q1 2022: +3% (Only Spyrosoft)
Q2 2022: +35% (Only Spyrosoft)
Q3 2022: +3% Mistake WriteUp co
Q4 2022: +16%
Q1 2023: +3% Mistake Centralnic
Q2 2023: +28% Everything working out a bit
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Nice Q4 result from 4Mass - We used to not make that much money in Q4s 😅
#4mass
podał wyniki za 4Q. Poniższe wykresy najlepiej oddają skale zmian jakie zaszły w spółce w minionym roku. 4mass osiągnał w 2023 roku 101,5 mln zł przychodów (52% r/r) oraz 19,3 mln zł zysku netto (przy 8,5 mln zł ZN rok wcześniej). Zobaczymy co pokażą w 2024. Ja jestem
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The most unique 13Fs are those of Michael Bury. He's been wrong his entire career but people still deeply care what he's buying
What are some of the most unique-looking 13fs you have seen?
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Favorite position keeps ticking the boxes:
Current Quarterly EPS up 95% YoY
Annual Earnings double upon double
New 2yr High, new products
Skin in the game (CEO owns 10%)
Leading market share growth
Institutions getting in (Uplisting)
Market idc
Keeps performing -> I keep adding
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4/ Voxel at a PE of 14 is still a little bit above where I typically like to enter, although the business is delivering very well, diagnostic imaging with 10x last q annualized, and ~30% growth. Looks like an easy 15% return CAGR for years, not advice here
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Sold Decibel at 12.2 at the open today. I need to stop investing in companies that do the same as other companies. Always knew it didn't have a moat but thought 5x earnings at 60% growth would work out well. Of course growth and earnings disappeared as market saturated
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Well this aged well...
Sold my stake in Spyrosoft. Still like it a lot, but think there’s more value in other things - though to let go after the 197% rise in the past 18mo. Replaced it with S4E, another Polish micro-cap..... 🧵👇👇👇
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So this simple post explains why I like the company and the stock.
Thanks
@MichaelR_Quant
,
@mszepczynski
,
@Paul_Wildcat
for the joint learning about this company, as it develops
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In microcaps, imo, the reason why growth is better than value (dividend), is that as a microcap grows, it increases in liquidity and market cap, creating additional returns from the multiple expansion (size & illiquidity discounts fading)
What cheaper to you?
15% growth 5% dividend yield?
Or straight up 20% dividend yield?
And why?
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I highly recommend that you check out this interview with
@PaulAndreola
He is an excellent investor, and is highly transparent about his approach, and why it has worked so well for decades
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Investing in micro caps requires the spirit of an explorer. Each venture responds to the call of uncharted territory. With courage, patience, a weathered eye for storms, and lessons from past journeys, treasures can be unearthed, on paths never walked before. 💰🚀
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10/ 4Mass we already talked about a little bit. I'm still waiting for you guys to send me the results of your home styling sessions testing the products :D
Posted a nice Q with q4 profits x3
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13/ Finally, Euro-tax, I actually missed this one for a long long time, just because their ball dropped out of the chart, as their ROE was >100%. Great stable compounding business, with high cash position, very cheap and asset light. I own some although very illiquid.
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Some of these look familiar 😀
We've seen...
@IggyOnInvesting
on $ECK
@VanVianney
on $NTW
@GeckoResearch
on $SUN
@LukeWolgram
on $APR
and I know
@MicroCapSpotter
likes $SED
Which more have you seen?
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If you like this post, feel free to like, subscribe, and retweet, or point out a mistake I might have made, or a stock I might not know yet. It's not investing advice, it's a bull posting goldballs on a platform that is named after a car, that was named after a website
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High Quality author meets high Quality stock 👇👇👇
Dino Polska - Where are we now?
A new update on Dino Polska (DNP.WA)
Fundamentals, future, valuation, and portfolio.
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I sold Synektik $SNT in Q1 because the backlog I puzzled together based on their announcement flow, was going down dramatically...
The market didn't care and pushed it 70% higher after my sale, but has started to re-evaluate since the company posted a grim update this week
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5/ Synektik, medical robot distributor, is a real success story at a very low price. I did sell it recently though because their backlog is not above where it was 1 year ago. Stock is up 20% since I sold it, cheers to the buyers :-)
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Portfolio making a soft landing down from 20% YTD to 2% YTD... Still up but less elegantly
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Large cap bro's
Why did you miss $NVIDIA, $META, and $CRWD ?
Micro cap bro's
Why did you miss $ALAR, $Shelly, $XPEL?
Me
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David demonstrating discipline here, getting out as the thesis doesn't materialise. Whatever your process is, this type of iron discipline and sharp view helps enormously in avoiding mistakes.
1/
I completely sold my $ARNT position for a 6-7% capital gain.
It was a value trap.
I have watched their Croatian Capital Markets Day presentation and asked a few questions to the management.
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7/ APS, 7Fit and S4E are too illiquid to buy, otherwise perfect. All performing well
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@GiacintoSalerno
@Logan_JH1
Hey wait a sec, I quadrupled in 5 months just by following Masters flawless calls. Trust the process
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@nonprophetcap
@puppyeh1
Tomorrow Polish IT Firm Spyrosoft moves from penny to main.
- Guided 'no negative business impact from Ukraine' and '2022 margin and growth like 2021'
- 50% orgrowth last y, PE 15
- 90% founder owned/lead who previously created & sold German IT co 'intive', now 4x larger in HC
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@ValueStockGeek
Idk man when I started working I only had money for a total crap car but my income was pretty solid. Had to replace it a couple years later due to increasing maintenance and gas costs.
Would have been better to get a more decent one with a small loan and proper insurance
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@PnigroCR
@s2fmultiple
Hi Andreas. It's because that's a log chart so 31623 is in the middle between 10.000 and 100.000. (Sqrt 10)
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6/ Suntech sa, up over 30x over the past years, is a software provider for telecom and traffic networks, with a global customer base
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Do you like any, do you own any? Please be careful in the market, and do your own work. Just look at the "Quality stock" Livechat falling from grace.
I own 4Mass, KBJ and Euro-tax, and should do a bit more work on CDA, Votum and APN Promise
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Top 5 positions:
1. 4Mass sa
2. Careerlink Japan
3. Wittchen sa
4. Canadabis
5. Muza sa
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In investing, the best strategies (with highest ROI) are often those that only work with the smallest sums of capital...
This is the big advantage of the small investor
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Synektik with a strong update today.
Q3 Revenue up ~180% YoY
Q3 Profit up ~250% YoY
Q3 Backlog up ~60% YoY
Trade at 12x adjusted earnings
Liquidated Muza last week and bought some more Canadabis + Synektik (today and last week)
Interested in critical thought on $SNT
#Synektik
wynikami nie zawiódł 💪
⬆️Przychody 101,7 mln
🔹EBITDA 20,9 mln konsensus analityków pobity o 27% 👍
✔️Zysk netto 13,5 mln konsensus pobity o 41% 🤯
Dla porównania prognozy mBanku na zdjęciu. 🧐
#SNT
#portfelGPW
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12/ Elektrotim has been an interesting story, I am not a buyer still, because they are all based on one-off projects, but they sure keep finding them nicely
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This weeks edition of Toffcap's Monday monitor led us to some interesting discussions about $4Mass 😁
@JonCukierwar
,
@Paul_Wildcat
🍻
#Mrmarket
$4ms
We're out with a new Toffcap Monday Monitor, our regular overview of interesting event-driven trades and companies. Once again a lot is going on 🔥.
Special thanks this week to
@Floebertus
,
@DeepValuePlay
and
@EgweneAlVer
.
$4MS $PPSI $MMM $GE $MDU $SMLP $SHCR $KA $GRWG $GYRO
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And there's one more thing... Do you like commodities, game publishers, solar companies, real estate developers? You might, but I don't. Too lumpy, too unpredictable, too hard to understand. I like businesses that deliver great numbers every month of the year. The others?
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9/ Digital network, I think is an amazing stock as well. I did miss this one at 15 PLN because they were lending money to customers which I thought was a bit sketchy. I understand it better now, and this is a great biz, but hard to buy now at 40 PLN. cheers
@Wojciechowski19
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C: Current q eps growth >20%
A: Annual earnings growth
N: New countries, verticals
S: High insider ownership
L: Leader in nearshoring
I: Institutions starting to watch
M: Momentum positive, cup & handle break out
#spyrosoft
#canslim
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@twebs
Process:
1. Screen 100.000 smallcaps for stable growth, high ROA, low price
2. Exclude EM, Japan
3. Exclude telco, financials, old retail, media and travel
4. Read annual reports
5. Reject scams, overacquirers, covid beneficiaries
Result: 0 left 🤓 except for ********
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Poland Newconnect market, where every other report contains an obvious typographical error, to be corrected in the next report...
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Tip from the gym: Nvidia stock.
Main properties: It goes up quickly.
Can be a good alternative to s&p500.
Because you can't expect 500 stocks to go up quickly at the same time.
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Returns of 7 quarters of micro cap investing...
Q1 2022: 3% (Only Spyrosoft)
Q2 2022: 35% (Only Spyrosoft)
Q3 2022: 3% Mistake WriteUp co
Q4 2022: 16%
Q1 2023: 3% Mistake Centralnic
Q2 2023: 28% Everything working out a bit
Q3 2023: 5% 4Mass up, Wittchen down
Returns of 6 quarters of micro cap investing...
Q1 2022: +3% (Only Spyrosoft)
Q2 2022: +35% (Only Spyrosoft)
Q3 2022: +3% Mistake WriteUp co
Q4 2022: +16%
Q1 2023: +3% Mistake Centralnic
Q2 2023: +28% Everything working out a bit
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8/ Eurosnack,
@IggyOnInvesting
spotlighted this, is one I missed, and actually lead me to make my own screening system, not to miss them. It reported some interesting past couple quarters with dropping growth, and rocketing margins, moving from growth to value
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@inglouriouscap
Summary of previous memo:
- Likes his sun. Sun gmi
- Sun likes crypto. Crypto going up
- It means sun = genius and crypto gmi
- Hedges... maybe ngmi but maybe gmi
- Sun smart in any case
- Might talk more with sun next time
- Forgot to mention sun can gfhs if crypto down
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Small cap investing is pretty easy you just have to avoid the bad ones.
They are easy to identify though, you make a list of 100 smallcaps, odds are pretty good they're all bad ✅
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Poland is a country with incredibly cheap stocks, so we don't lose many of them by looking only below 20 or 25x PE
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