Connor Haley
@AltaFoxCapital
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Long-term focused investment firm out of Fort Worth, TX. https://t.co/MxZR00Yvgf
Fort Worth, Texas
Joined February 2018
Here is a link to the full "Makings of a Multibagger" research analysis: Please retweet if you enjoy it!. @MicroCapClub @iancassel.
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It is rare to find a business trading at a ~20% free cash flow yield and 7x fwd earnings that can grow mid teens EPS organically over the medium term. Significant confusion in the market has created what we believe is a very attractive risk/reward. More details tomorrow.
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Investors who successfully utilize the collaboration tools available to the modern investor will inevitably run circles around those who don’t. I’m very appreciative of fintwit and my close network of investors— I’ve learned a ton from all of them and have hopefully contributed.
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Tomorrow, pre-market, Alta Fox will be releasing our highest conviction idea. We believe our research is the most in-depth analysis of this company’s growth prospects and valuation. It has probably been the most fun I have had researching a company since CLCT.
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There are a lot of fintwit geniuses that like to hate on small funds and managers, beat them down when they post bad results, etc. I respect anyone willing to take their own shot, publicly post results (good or bad), and carve out their own niche in a very competitive industry.
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1: Tomorrow, pre-market, Alta Fox will release our highest conviction long position. The business is benefitting from a strong secular trend, and we believe it is about to experience a significant acceleration in profitability. The obviousness of this impending inflection point.
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Investing is truly the world’s greatest game. The combination of a global setting, intense competition, mix of strategy and psychology, many possible investing styles, and lofty rewards make it exhilarating. I’m always amazed you can get paid to play it!.
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Being on a corporate Board should be an honor and a service to the company and its constituents (employees, customers, shareholders). It should NOT be a way to get paid lavishly while sitting on numerous Boards and having zero skin in the game.
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The Alta Fox Q2-2021 letter to investors is available here:
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This is. aggressive math.
ii) I looked at my relative performance vs the S&P500 - 3.6% vs 2.3% = 56% above the benchmark. I’m no huge fan of being up 3.6% but right now I need to find confidence in this. iii) I looked at my portfolio and remodeled everything I’m invested in. I’m still proud of it all.
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I just pitched one of our favorite ideas at the moment, $HUMBLE, at Sohn San Francisco. The full deck can be accessed here:
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The Alta Fox Capital Q4-2020 letter is now available here:
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We have just released our high conviction research on $IDT here: Disclosure: Long.
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A lot of panic out there. Focus on the 3-year normalized earnings/free cash flow and a lot of things are starting to look very attractive even with scary macro and significant uncertainty.
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Had a management meeting recently. I overheard the CEO change his hotel for an ideas conference from a $300/night place to $100/night around the corner. It’s a $1B+ market cap that has crushed it in the public markets. Have to respect a CEO watching every shareholder dollar.
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This is pretty funny $DIS. Hat tip to Nelson Peltz for this gem:. Peltz told CNBC on Thursday that he paid a visit to Disney World last week. “It was fascinating because … we didn’t have any special passes. We didn’t have any tour guides. … Everybody was nice. I mean, Magic.
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A quick thread of my own on allocators—since that seems to be of recent interest:.
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The Alta Fox Q1-2021 letter is now available here: In the letter, we discuss winding down $CLCT and a new idea that we believe has tremendous upside potential: $VQS CN.
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Many college students had promising summer finance internships derailed by COVID-19. This summer, Alta Fox tried to do our part by having 3 remote interns. They worked on one major project over the summer-- studying the best performing small-cap stocks over the last 5 years.
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Call me crazy, but it seems like it could be a great structural decade for l/s hedge funds. Consensus is they are dead. More top talent chasing tech vs finance. Even within finance, PE is the sexy route these days. Moreover, difficult environment to launch and raise capital,.
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Today, we are publishing on a new, high-conviction idea. It is an off the radar, leading player in an attractive essential services oligopoly with a ~3 year backlog of demand and meaningful operating leverage. We believe margins can double in the near-term as the impact of ~40%.
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Need some new companies to read up on today. Anyone have suggestions for some off the run, competitively advantages businesses?.
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The Alta Fox Capital Q2-2020 letter is available here: In the letter, we also highlight our newest long position: $NLAB.
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Excited to share one of our highest conviction names in the portfolio and a new position for us. Good and improving biz, oligopoly industry structure, and rapid earnings growth at a discounted price. I think it’s the type of idea Buffett would probably buy (if he had a lot less.
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It amazes me how many people in this industry enjoy tearing down others by either minimizing someone's success or (even worse) kicking someone when they are down. I try to genuinely root for the good guys to succeed and be helpful when possible. It's a happier way to live!.
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It is that time of year. What is your highest conviction stock idea heading into 2025?.
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I am skeptical of fundamental investors that 1) say they don’t build valuation models and/or 2) don’t value talking to management teams. Yes, Buffett has said he doesn’t do #1 but it’s not 1980 and you’re probably not Buffett.
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The $NLAB deal goes from 40 to 53. We are pleased to support this new deal and to have fought successfully for all minority shareholders.
Kudos to @AltaFoxCapital @IsozHans @ludvvigs for representing minority shareholders strongly and extracting a fairer price.
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1: We have just released a research report on Pollard Banknote Ltd. ($PBL CN), currently our highest conviction long. The detailed report can be accessed at:
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For new Twitter followers, two podcasts in which I discuss my investment philosophy:. 1) The Planet Microcap podcast: 2) The Acquirer's Podcast: .
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Excited to share one of our highest conviction ideas tomorrow at the Sohn San Francisco conference. We will be sharing a copy of the presentation here after we are done presenting. It’s an under the radar European name that we believe is trading for a mid-teens FCFE yield on our.
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I came across a Reddit post of someone depressed after losing $500K, their life savings, after buying OTM calls. There were a couple of decent and reasonable replies. followed by people telling him the answer is to just buy different OTM calls. That upsets me.
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There is a financial literacy crisis in this country. This is not a game to swing your life savings in. Seeing celebrities who are not even close to resembling financial experts encourage this behavior is maddening.
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I enjoyed reading the Nelson Peltz $DIS deck. Peltz is a legend. It is hard for me to fathom that a Board could credibly look at an investor of his caliber, with his track record, that owns an almost $1B stake, and say “no, he can’t add a valuable perspective to our Board.”.
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A lot of fear out there and indiscriminate selling. What’s your highest conviction idea that you are buying today?.
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Today we will be releasing information on our highest conviction long position since inception of the fund.
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$CLCT is our highest conviction long position since the fund's inception. We have taken an activist position to increase shareholder value. Please see the press release here: As well as our open letter to shareholders here:
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Would highly recommend TIKR for anyone that doesn’t have access to Bloomberg. In fact, I once found filings for an obscure Korean company on TIKR that I couldn’t even find on Bloomberg.
BIG NEWS:.1) We are launching our global equity screener today!.2) Anyone can sign up for TIKR's free beta with this link: In this thread, we talk about TIKR's mission, how the screener works, and more. Thank you everyone for your support!.
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Full 100-page presentation on our Hasbro $HAS thesis can be downloaded here:
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Unfortunately, @jimcramer did not do his homework today. He said that "[Hasbro] has been a great performer." No Jim, it has not. This is a fact. I understand that CNBC has ties to the PR firm advising Hasbro, but let's please at least get the facts right.
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It's humorous to see trolls trying to poke fun at $HAS (and wonder why they are blocked). Yes, we made a mistake. Ironically, getting out when we did (end of 2022) and returning LP capital when we did not have to is something I am proud of. It would have been easier to "keep.
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Are there any good books that discuss stock market history with a short description of returns and key events by year? Ex: a couple pages on each year in the market since 1980 or something like that.
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Alta Fox is excited to announce a direct investment in NRS, a subsidiary of $IDT. We believe NRS is a high-quality business with an exceptional management team. Additional NRS analysis can be found here:
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A fun concert at Alta Fox HQ today to celebrate the last day of Lewis, our quant intern (on 1st violin). Joined by a Senior Analyst on the cello and his girlfriend (2nd violin).
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The Alta Fox Q1 2022 letter is available. We discuss markets and three of our favorite names: $NGMS, $DSKE, $XPEL. Available here:
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We have released a letter to all Hasbro $HAS shareholders. We have nominated 5 highly qualified directors to the company's Board. Enjoy the fan-made card below and read on to #FreeTheWizards. Letter to Shareholders: Full Website:
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Our latest qtrly letter is available here: $EVBG $HAS $NGMS $XPEL $LEO.
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Fun thread if people are interested. What stocks are long-term and structural under-performers vs the market?.
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One of the reasons I tell young students/investors to start a blog is it timestamps/archives your investing views, process, and ideas over time. That is more valuable to someone in a hiring seat than any potential case study, which is by definition at a single point in time.
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Noticed I hit 25K followers today. Thanks to all. I don’t tweet all that often, but try to add value when I do. I’ve made so many great connections through fintwit so thanks to all.
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A large allocator recently asked me what question is rarely asked but should be when speaking with portfolio managers. My suggestion: Ask where the firm is directing incremental capital in its research process. Just as investors scrutinize portfolio companies' incremental.
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Most public companies have no idea what their stock is worth, how it should be valued, and therefore what a sound capital allocation policy looks like. Companies like $IDT and $IAC that buck that trend can create tremendous value for shareholders.
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@_inpractise asked about the excellent economics at $EVO, one of our favorite companies and what made their economics sustainable. This is a questions we have spent a lot of time on recently so I figured I would share our thoughts:.
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Satya is only 56. It is fun to think about where he will end up on the Mount Rushmore of all-time CEO's. Absolute killer.
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Analysis of $EVO competitive advantages can be found here: We think it is a great business run by an excellent management team that can compound capital at attractive rates for a long time. Very underfollowed in the US (for now).
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Excellent day hosting some extremely talented undergraduates. The Alta Fox Capital 2022 small-cap competition finalists:
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Who is one investor you greatly respect that has a different style of investing than you? I’ll go first: Boaz Weinstein @boazweinstein . While AFC does not (at least currently) do closed end fund activism, it’s greatly needed and hard to do (like all activism imo). His firm, Saba.
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The Alta Fox Q1 2020 letter is available here: $GAN $EVO $MMMB.
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Chris Cocks handpicked Cynthia Williams to lead WOTC even though she had never played MTG. This is on him. Cocks has managed to alienate both MTG and D&D fans in such a short period of time. One of the worst starts to a CEO tenure of recent memory.
@Nash076 I don't even think it's Hasbro. When Chris Cocks moved up from President of WotC to CEO of Hasbro, they appointed an ex-Microsoft ex-Amazon executive to President of WotC. Who then pushed out the former head of D&D to put in another ex-Microsoft ex-Amazon executive in charge.
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We are pleased to announce Alta Fox’s $25mm investment into Daktronics $DAKT, a company with a 50+ year history. We believe the stock is trading at ~4.5x run-rate EBITDA and could triple using reasonable assumptions.
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Alta Fox is one of the largest shareholders of $EG7. We believe the company is extremely cheap at ~4x EBITDA and a ~15% FCF yield. Today, we issued the following letter to the BOD, urging them to unlock this value for shareholders.
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$IDT NRS revenue just grew 134% y/y. EBITDA margins were 36%+. Rule of 40 = an absurd 170. A very non-promotional management team just suggested NRS will do $80M+ of revenue and $30M+ of EBITDA next year.
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Very thankful for the fintwit community and network. Very helpful in discussing and doing diligence on ideas with investors across the globe. Less thankful for the keyboard warriors that troll, do zero diligence, make accusations, etc. I used to call out silly statements, but.
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Clearly some undisciplined selling in $EG7 today. The company beat consensus EBITDA by 45% and the stock is down ~20%. The business is now trading for ~3x run-rate EBITDA. Our strong suspicion is that one or more of the large legacy holders puked the stock irrationally.
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Fintwit is great and I am very thankful for the many excellent contributors. It more than makes up for the tomato throwing spectators from the stands— who have apparently never made a mistake in an investment! 😂.
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Alta Fox is excited to announce our national undergraduate stock pitch competition! It's a great opportunity for undergraduates to compete against their peers, network with an incredible panel of judges we have lined up, and potentially earn internship opportunities and $.
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$NLAB Enlabs’ Board has recommended that shareholders accept $ENT Entain’s recent tender offer at 40 SEK/share. Simply put, this is the second-worst Board-recommended tender offer I have ever seen. Below, we respond to specific comments that both Entain and the Enlabs board.
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As one of the largest shareholders in $NLAB, we felt compelled to share our views on the recent offer by @EntainGroup.
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In honor of that milestone, if there’s any interest: ask me anything.
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Watching an awesome conversation live with the great Ryan Pape of $xpel and @EightTrack180 at the @MicroCapClub Summit about the learnings of XPEL and leadership over time. Jason hilariously brought in $4,901 in cash, which equaled XPEL’s working capital balance in 2009! It is
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I may have to do a tweet thread at some point on what I’ve learned about the allocator community. .
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Exciting news: Alta Fox has launched a Junior Analyst Development Program for aspiring fundamental research analysts. It is open to college juniors looking for a summer internship, which can develop into a full-time offer. Details can be found here:
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$PBL Q4 print is a gamechanger. After 6 years, PBL has finally broken out iLottery revenues/earnings. The results were even better than we expected. Now that the sell side and buy side can clearly see that PBL's iLottery business is growing triple digits with 61% incremental PBT.
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@SellToOpen007 @Indestructoboy @Wizards They are leaderless. We tried to put people on the BOD that would a) care about the community b) think strategically about these issues and c) had subject matter expertise. Chris Cocks in a very short span has managed to alienate both MTG and DnD core customers. Sad.
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We are looking to add an investment analyst to our team. If you know any outstanding candidates that are passionate about investing and would be excited about this DFW-based role, please let us know at: info@altafoxcapital.com.
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Another incredible quarter from $DAKT. People just don’t listen 😂. I’m not sure I’ve ever had such a high conviction idea people people have ignored all the way up. It’s difficult (but lucrative) to identify situations in which the future looks very different than the past.
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After having the "Chief Purpose Officer" present 2050 climate goals, $HAS cuts revenue guidance for the year and the stock is now negative on a massive up day for S&P 500. Very on brand.
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This is a slap in the face of shareholders who have supported the company at its most challenging moments. Now with the business booming and materially undervalued, you accept a 1.1% premium? $NLAB @niklasbraathen @Enlabs_AB.
Second deal that I wrote about in November coming through this week (GVC/ Enlabs) after the MGM/ GVC deal on Monday✅. However, unlike the MGM deal, this deal is completely unacceptable to shareholders. Premium of 1% is a joke and materially undervalues the company. 🤯.Not right.
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Much healthier to root (and network) with others. A ton of smart people on here and everyone goes through periods of difficult performance. I am certainly thankful for the advice and help of others when I was contemplating launching a few years ago (but that’s a future thread).
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I want to like $DIS, but just feels like it's in the "too hard" pile given the potential to be a value trap. When a stock has materially underperformed like $DIS, you need a) new blood b) a passionate shareholder base to support real change and c) a look at all options.
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Thanks to everyone for the outpouring of messages of support from both players and investors. We are reviewing every single response and deeply appreciate the feedback. There are few brands that have customers that care as much as MTG & D&D!.
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The WNBA is putting on a masterclass on how to ruin a great marketing moment. Caitlin Clark is a national story and bringing an entirely new level of attention to the league. In response:. -Veterans like Taurasi play Clark down and suggest her game won’t translate to the WNBA.
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Pleased to see the fantastic financial results reported from $IDT yesterday. The business and mgt is firing on all cylinders. A few high level thoughts on the quarter: . 1)Mobile-Top up revenue +42% year over year. This is the 6th consecutive quarter of 20%+ revenue growth.
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I enjoyed going though the Coatue materials as well as rebuttals. My quick take would be: yes there are things to be worried about, but if you only use the dot com bust and Great Depression as historical bear market examples, of course your conclusion will be to go to cash.
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Hit 10K followers today. Thanks to all for taking an interest in what we do. We continue to get amazing value by following others on fintwit. We don’t tweet a lot but try to add a little bit of value when we do.
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We recently brought back the link to “Makings of a Multibagger.” It can be found here:
3 must reads if you want to learn about stocks that go boom:. 1. 100-Baggers by @chriswmayer. 2. Global Outperformers by @dede_eyesan. 3. Makings Of A Multibagger by @AltaFoxCapital.
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There should be a “Wall of Shame” reporting service, or specialist within an existing major media outlet that covers egregious failures of governance. Public shaming and personal reputation risk is sometimes the most effective incentive to keep Boards and management teams honest.
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I was honored to be the keynote speaker at the University of Texas for their intercollegiate investment club competition. Events like this were a big part of my college experience and it’s great to see the next wave of talent.
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What are the best books on being a great boss/manager and fostering a world class culture?.
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This seems like a market where long-term investors will take $ from short-term investors who panic. Yes the next year will be choppy, but many things to like about the medium to long-term setup. Great businesses with strong balance sheets will do just fine.
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I love this quote from the great Kobe Bryant:. "If you're going to lollygag through this scrimmage, through this drill, I'm going to beat you, I'm going to let you know I beat you, and I'm going to want you to reconsider your professional life choice. And for the most part,.
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Had the pleasure of hosting @willis_cap at the office today and chatted investing. Great conversation— even if the picture turned out to make us look blue 😂.
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Semi-regular thread: what are the best publicly traded businesses that are not achieving their full potential (due to wrong strategy, poor alignment, etc)? Bonus points for small-caps.
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