Brad Kaellner
@bkaellner
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Compounding on the shoulders of giants 📈 Trying to be a little less stupid today than I was yesterday 📚🤯
Asheville, NC
Joined January 2010
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
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🧵Warren Buffett released a masterclass on how to achieve success in business yesterday
Here are my 10 most powerful insights from his annual letter to shareholders 👇
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When Charlie Munger was asked if he drinks alcohol…
Why would I take money out of my pocket to put something in my body that makes my head work less well?
😂🍻
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I don't want a 100-page investment write-up
I want one page like this
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If you can invest in a quality company, one where you can foresee growth and pretty consistent returns, and you can buy it at a free cash flow yield at or above the long bond yield, just buy it
-Terry Smith
Below are FCF yields of Fundsmith's biggest bets, and 10-yr bond yield
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If I didn't own $AMZN I would absolutely buy it here
I would probably put 20% on Amazon if I were building a portfolio today
Maybe 10% in $FB, $BABA & $GOOGL
I think $MSFT & $AAPL are expensive
-Bill Miller, May 2022
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Charlie Munger explains to Li Lu why he still flies commercial, despite having access to a private jet 🛩
H/T
@iancassel
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Chesky to Bezos: "Jeff, what's the best advice Warren Buffett ever gave you?"
Bezos: I asked Warren "Your investment thesis is so simple... you're the richest guy in the world, and it's so simple. Why doesn't everyone just copy you?"
Buffett: "Nobody wants to get rich slow."
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Mohnish Pabrai bought $AMZN in 2002 at $10/share
He sold shortly thereafter at $14/share
If Pabrai had simply left the position alone it would be worth twice as much as his entire fund today 🤯
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Chris Mayer, author of 100 Baggers, routinely discloses his positions on X and his blog
It has been 6 months since I posted his holdings
Here is the price appreciation on those holdings over the last 6 months...
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Chris Mayer wrote the sequel to the classic book on finding 100 bagger stocks 📈
Here are the 11 stocks in his portfolio 👀
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In 2005 Nick Sleep shared his Costco investment thesis with Value Investor Insight
Here it is 👇
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Chris Mayer's current holdings as of March, 2023
Perhaps a few 100 baggers in here!
What stands out to you?
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Notable buys from SuperInvestors (part 2)
Chris Hohn $V
Mohnish Pabrai $MU
David Tepper $M $GM
Li Lu $FB
Sequoia $W
Jeff Ubben $FISV
Bill Miller $MAT $OVV $COIN
Stephen Mandel $AMZN $MA
Warren Buffett $CVX $LSXMA $NU
Pat Dorsey $WIX $POSH
Yen Liow $GTLB
What am I missing? 🤷♂️
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Compounded annual gains for clone-worthy investors, both battle-tested and emerging 📈
Who am I missing? Send me a DM 📨
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Updated list of 1,000 Baggers to date, covering last 4 decades in US market
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One of Terry Smith's favorite metrics for identifying quality companies is Gross Margin
Here are the Fundsmith businesses that can make things for less than $1 and sell them for $3+
Gross margin tells you something about your defense against inflation & your pricing power
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Terry Smith recently bought $AMZN after years of taking a pass ✋
In a podcast episode with
@marymcdougall13
he explained what changed 🎙
See my transcription of that exchange below 👇
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The best 1-minute explanation I’ve ever heard on how the stock market works 🔥
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I'm thinking about aggregating hedge fund letters each quarter and including stock buys & sells for each manager, perhaps even noting size of companies (small/mid/large/megacap)
Is this something you would use?
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Words of wisdom from Ted Weschler’s final letter to Peninsula Capital investors 10 years ago, right before starting at Berkshire Hathaway
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Charlie Munger's 25 Cognitive Biases, along with antidotes for how to avoid them
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You’ve heard of NVR, but what other companies have crushed it buying back stock over the last decade? 👇
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Todd Combs gave a rare interview this week as a prelude to the Berkshire AGM
Here are my highlights
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Notable buys so far from SuperInvestors...
Rob Vinall - $CVNA
Terry Smith - $AMZN, $GOOGL
Charlie Munger - $BABA
Bill Ackman - $NFLX
What am I missing?
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How Bill Miller thinks about the valuation of $AMZN...
AWS worth $1.5T ($57bn ttm Revenue at 26x multiple)
Advertising worth $250bn ($31bn ttm Revenue at 8x multiple)
You get the entire global retail business for free
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The $49 education that runs circles around a degree from the London School of Economics
@MohnishPabrai
presenting to students at LSE 😂
#nofilter
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Concentrated fund managers that have survived multiple stock market crashes
Fertile hunting ground for new investment ideas
H/t
@Scott_Reardon_
for the great list of investors with 20+ year track records
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In "The Money Masters" Warren Buffett reveals the 11 characteristics of a wonderful business
Grab a coffee and let's go!
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Here are 39 stocks to dig into from the latest 13F filings!
What am I missing?
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Fintwit loves to hate on Warren Buffett, but here's why he's the GOAT:
• CAGR of 20.2% over 56 years
• Let others ride along for free (no fees)
• Took $100K salary w/out bonus or stock options
• Donated $100B of stock so far
What am I missing?
H/T
@honam
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If you exclude a single investment, Benjamin Graham (the father of value investing) underperformed the S&P 500
The investment that made him a winner didn’t even fit his value framework
Few understand this 👇
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If I were starting out today with a small amount of capital, I would put all my time & energy into Turkey
-Mohnish Pabrai, July 2022
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Six qualities you must have to succeed as an investor, from the 🐐
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Elon getting people to Mars is a higher probability than $FB dominating the metaverse
-Pabrai
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Playing around with idea generation filters from John Spears and Michael Burry
Companies in this list satisfy the following criteria...
1. Six-figure+ insider buys from C-suite
2. VIC writeup in last 2 years
3. Current price within striking distance of 10-15% above 52-week low
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BREAKING: Mohnish Pabrai boosts $BABA stake by 53% in Q2 2021
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Warren Buffett’s full portfolio in 1962, the year he became a millionaire & bought his first shares in Berkshire Hathaway 🐐
H/T
@prathravi
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Significant buys for SuperInvestors in Q4!
What am I missing?
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1/
Warren Buffett spoke with Becky Quick in Japan earlier this week for 3 hours on a wide range of timely topics
I spent hours combing through the transcript of that interview to pull out my biggest highlights
Here they are...
Source
@CNBC
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Chuck Akre on the importance of writing / communication in the investment business
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Stanley Druckenmiller gave a rare interview last week at the NBIM investment conference
Here are my highlights
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Here are the buyback kings of the last 5 years!
All of them are profitable (positive LTM EBIT) and less than 16x EV/EBIT
Courtesy of
@theTIKR
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10 Baggers over the last decade in the US that are still small caps
Can they do it again?
H/t
@marketplunger1
&
@dede_eyesan
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Mohnish Pabrai: $FB is a likely double in 2-3 years
But I'm not willing to pay anything for the metaverse optionality
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Here is Li Lu’s recommended reading list for value investing, finance & capitalism 📚
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The average investor would have been better off buying homes over the last 20 years than investing in the stock market, even though the S&P 500 performed twice as well!
Why? Lack of liquidity encourages more rational behavior
H/t
@SagaPartners
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Mohnish Pabrai on $AMR & $CEIX...
"Recently, the two stocks that I found in the US are like IPSCO.
I never thought I'd find that again, where the guaranteed cash flows exceed the market cap."
IPSCO went from $42 to $157 in 15 months, returning 3.7x for Pabrai Funds
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“Probably the 2 best records of people managing money professionally are Dennis Lynch at Morgan Stanley and James Anderson at Baillie Gifford”
-Bill Miller
Here are their largest holdings as of April 30, 2022 👇
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The
@FundsmithLLP
screen, courtesy of
@theTIKR
ROIC > 25%
Gross Margin > 60%
FCF Yield > 2.8%
Industries: Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Technology
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Guy Spier with a flurry of activity in Q2, hops aboard the $BABA train 🚂
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"We never read analyst reports," says Buffett
“If I did it's because the FUNNY PAPERS weren't available”
J.P. Morgan downgrades $BABA
Forecasts tell us more about the forecaster than the future
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Q: Are you concerned about ownership in $BABA through the VIE structure?
Charlie Munger: Our ownership in Alibaba is a derivative type of ownership
Assuming there’s a reasonable honor among civilizations, that risk doesn’t seem that large to me
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1/
Charlie Munger shared his wisdom for 2 hours last week during the Daily Journal Annual Meeting
Here's a thread of my highlights!
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According to someone familiar with the matter...
Mohnish Pabrai's Big 3 Bets in Turkey 🇹🇷
$RYSAS Reysas Tasimacilik ve Lojistik Ticaret
$TAVHL TAV Havalimanlari Holding
$AEFES Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayii Anonim Sirketi
Back to fishing 🎣
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When you locate a bargain, you must ask, 'Why me, God? Why am I the only one who could find this bargain?'
-Charlie Munger
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Warren Buffett has bought 80-90 businesses in the last 50 years
At least 30 of them did not work out
The key is to have patience with the businesses that do work out
@MohnishPabrai
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If you want to go deep into fund manager letters, this is a fantastic resource
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In my whole adult life I’ve never hoarded cash waiting for better conditions
I’ve always just bought the best thing I could find
-Charlie Munger, $DJCO meeting
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The 25 oldest "family-owned" public companies in the world, per Credit Suisse
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I think if someone really digested "Poor Charlie's Almanack," it's better than most 4-year college degrees
-Mohnish Pabrai
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Nick Sleep has generated a 15% CAGR on 3 businesses over the last 2 decades: $BRK.A, $COST, and $AMZN
Here were the market caps of each when he bought...
Berkshire: $63bn
Costco: $18bn
Amazon: $22bn
He still owns them today
Lesson: You don't need to trade microcaps to get rich
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Mohnish Pabrai adds $BAM to the US portfolio! He has spoken highly of Bruce Flatt many times
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Mohnish Pabrai building that position in Brookfield, which has been a popular investment among superinvestors in Q4!
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Why a great business is not necessarily a great investment
$CRM grew sales 10x over the last 10 years
P/S contracted from 6.9x to 3.9x
Shares outstanding ballooned from 586m to 989m
Return = 10x * 0.57x * 0.6x = 3.3x (12.6% CAGR)
Business growth is only 1/3 of the equation!
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If the market tanks in the next 1-2 years and presents an opportunity to buy $AMZN, $BRK & $COST at bargain prices, will you take the baton from Nick Sleep and put your portfolio on auto-pilot?
It's a compelling thought
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The plot thickens for $BABA owners! Charlie changing his mind?
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Mohnish Pabrai had dinner with Bill Gates earlier this year for 2.5 hours in Omaha
He asked Bill "What are your top technology stocks to go long?"
Bill's reply...
$AMZN
$MSFT
$AMD
I know Bill doesn't manage the Gates Foundation Trust, but interesting no $AMZN & $AMD 👀
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Q: Why hasn’t Warren Buffett invested in $BABA?
Charlie Munger: Warren likes to invest where he’s personally comfortable
For some reason I’m more comfortable with China than Warren is
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Breaking: Mohnish Pabrai sold $BABA for two reasons…
1. Tax loss harvesting
2. He concluded after buying Alibaba that he likes Prosus better (as a discounted play on Tencent)
Disclosed today via Everything Money interview 🔥
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Poor Charlie's Almanack has gone digital
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I'm compiling a list of public companies with remarkable corporate cultures...
-Mainfreight
-Amazon
-Constellation Software
-Berkshire Hathaway
-Costco
-Southwest Airlines
-Apple
-Netflix
-Airbnb
-Brookfield Asset Mgmt
What else would you include?
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The largest position we have now is $MU
If you look at an Amazon data center and it costs them $100-200m to put that up, 30% of that is going to the memory guys
It’s a tax on all the streaming, e-commerce, shopping, everything
I get to collect that 30% tax
@MohnishPabrai
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Mohnish Pabrai's Top 5 Spawners in his portfolio or the free lunch portfolio...
1. Reysas
2. TAV Airports
3. Tencent (via Prosus)
4. Brookfield ($BAM & $BN)
5. Microsoft
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Mohnish Pabrai: Focus on sub-$500m market cap companies to maximize your growth runway
Also Mohnish: Buys Prosus & Brookfield Asset Management
Pay more attention to actions than words
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Ironic that his last big investment was $BABA
But why should it be easy to get rich?
Lessons within lessons in a never ending kaleidoscope
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Hunting for 10 Baggers in the US?
Study these companies
They've all returned 10x over the last decade with reasonable starting EV/EBIT multiples
And they're still small caps
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What I'm digging into this week...
-Constellation Software breakdown by Akre's Chris Cerrone
-Bonsai Partners Q4 letter
-Ray Dalio on Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast w/
@WilliamGreen72
-How to calculate ROIC by
@mjmauboussin
Sources below
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Warren: Is it wise to criticize people at all?
Charlie: Probably not but I can’t help it
#BerkshireHathaway
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The one thing we never do is we never say "It's cheap today but it'll be cheaper in six months so we'll wait"
If it's cheap we buy it
-Howard Marks, Nov 2022
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