Sleepwell🛌
@SleepwellCap
Followers
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Following
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Statuses
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Looking for investments to sleepwell (Public+Private). Music, Consumer, Tech and Luxury. Independent artist & engineer. Opinions my own,disclaimers on Substack.
Miami (or likely traveling)
Joined November 2020
I'm back! New piece published. Rolex is counterintuitively one of the best known brands in the world, but one of the least known businesses. It can teach us what it takes to be a true luxury brand. This was incredibly fun to research. I hope you enjoy!.
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A big part of becoming a better investor is not very intuitive: Studying non-investing related fields like psychology, history, physics, complex adaptive systems, non-linearity, probability and statistics. Here are my 10 favorite non-investing investing books📚. Thread 🧵👇.
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@SahilBloom Starbucks writing the names of millions of people in wrong and funny ways to get them to post their cups in all of Social Media. For Free.
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Ed Thorpe is 91 years, yet he looks like he’s in his 60s. To paraphrase @FoundersPodcast, this guy has mastered life across all aspects.
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Investor type based on the watch you wear:. Seiko: Value .Grand Seiko: GARP.Tudor: Quality.Rolex: Compounder Bro.Casio: Deep value.Apple Watch: just buys tech.Audemars Piguet: 13F copycat.Patek Philippe: never sell.Hublot: Meme stonk.Richard Mille: YOLO.
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Two years ago from today, I left JPMorgan and emailed Jamie on my last day. Haters will say it was his secretary responding, but my gut says it’s legit😅
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• Death.• Taxes.• Chamath disappearing from Twitter when his portfolio is down.
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$GOOG Services segment operating margin: 36%.$LVMH Fashion & Leather Goods segment operating margin: 41%
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Buffett originally offered $850 for $Y but said he wouldn't pay a dime to Investment Bankers; so the final price subtracts Goldman's $27mm fee (who advised Alleghany) to result in a $848.02 price per share for shareholders.
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@pitdesi Independent artist and long time investor here. A few thoughts:. - You were wrong in hindsight clearly but it would have been incredibly tough to see how this was going to play out early on while it was private. Music industry is a cemetery of startups trying to disrupt the.
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Sell-Side Equity Research gets its fair share of criticism from investors, but it’s also a good training ground where you can learn about the investment process and become a better investor. Here are 10 things I learned during my time on the sell-side. 👇🧵.
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Which private companies would you consider buying if they were public? . For me Chick-fil-A, Trader Joe’s and Patagonia.
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Todd Combs mentioned 4 books in The Art of Investing podcast, all seem worthwhile:.-Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World.-Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.-Just Six Numbers: The Deep Forces That Shape The Universe.-Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen.
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Dear NYTimes: You still underestimate my ability to click ctrl+A➡️ctrl+C in under 20 milliseconds.
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Lots of debate around the Labels vs. $SPOT narrative in the last two days with UMG news. Also a lot of misunderstandings. Long thread with my views and clarifications . Let’s go 💽👇🏽🎶.
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🔸KASHKARI: I PUT A 40% PROBABILITY ON A SCENARIO WHERE FED WILL HAVE TO RAISE RATES SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TO BEAT INFLATION.
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Why doesn’t YouTube allow all of its users to listen to videos with the app closed/phone locked?. It would instantly become the biggest audio company in the world (2.1B+ users) and change its consumer habits. If they were serious about audio, they would have done this already.
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Make this guy Fed Chairman right now.
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$AMZN tried to launch in Mexico without using $GOOG ads, as an experiment. It didn’t work and they quickly caved.
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Hermès results (+15% organic) are a good reminder that true luxury is a rare occurrence and that luxury is a wide spectrum with vastly different economics
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-So what’s your edge?.-I’m from Latin America so I avoid Latam stocks.
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$NFLX 10-K came out and I can finally update this chart. Produced content assets are now 55% vs 45% last year and 13% 5 yrs ago. This is content where they own the IP. Licensed includes Netflix Originals made by other studios, which are exclusive but they don’t own, and re-runs
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@ParikPatelCFA The @mjmauboussin Papers. My favorites are:.1) Managing the Man Overboard Moment.2) Calculating ROIC.3) What does Price-to-Earnings mean?.4) Measuring the Moat.5) Reflections on the 10 Attributes of Great Investors.6) Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills.
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Berkshire’s $AAPL position now a 5X; worth $155B or 24% of $BRK market cap.
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Peloton paid more royalties to the music industry than TikTok in 2022 ($267m vs $220m) according to Goldman Sachs.
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Hello Twitter👋 I deeply believe in the power of this platform so I’m asking for your help. Looking for opportunities on the buyside—here’s my anonymous CV📜. I’d greatly appreciate if you can share or pass along to whoever comes to mind and hopefully I can payback in some way 🙏🏼
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You guys like to call Warren and Charlie “outdated” but they have been working remotely since 1959.
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This Bezos quote about $AMZN also applies to investing:. “If everything you do needs to work on a 3-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a 7-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people”.
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Some pretty unbelievable places I’ve been to these past few days road-tripping in Northern Spain. Saludos a todos🤟🏼
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One big takeaway of this slide is how weak LVMH’s watch portfolio is, which must be driving Arnault crazy. Probably the only vertical where they don’t own any real luxury businesses.
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I had no idea L'Oreal $OR had a Loyalty Share Program. Shareholders can register shares under their name, hold them for 2 years and get a 10% higher dividend (6.60 vs 6.0) It's supposed to incentivize long-term ownership. Any other companies that do this?.
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Had no idea that $NFLX had an $AMZN AWS pitch on their 10-K
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Marina Industry Fundamentals:. -Fragmented Industry: Top 5 operators make up ~4%.-Industry dynamics: High barriers to entry + decline of total marina supply + steady increase of boat demand & size.-Supportive demographics: Retiring baby boomers. source: $SUI
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$UHAL CEO just laughed at loud when an Analyst asked him about April and May trends.
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$GOOG growing top-line 15-20%, high incremental margins and trading close to 20x ’22 EPS is a “don’t try to reinvent the wheel you idiot” idea. And no, I’m not adjusting for cash, SBC, losses in other bets/cloud,etc. Also buybacks are still a joke: share count down <5% since 2018.
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The Investor’s Dilemma: . If valuation is so difficult (or impossible) to pinpoint, is it worth spending too much time on it?.
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TCI (Chris Hohn) going activist on $GOOG:.“We are writing to express our view that the cost base of Alphabet is too high and management needs to take aggressive action. The company has too many employees and the cost per employee is too high.”. Letter:
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A few serial acquirers, last 10 years vs. the $SPY. Some of these still have a very decent runway ahead of them.
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Ok repeat after me:. Sum of the parts is meaningless if you’re never going to get ‘the parts’.
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How did he do it? Focused on 5 Key Areas (from @FoundersPodcast):.1) Lifelong learning.2) He's rich, but was never in a hurry.3) Took care of his health, eats well and exercises .4) Good relationships, spends time with friends and family.5) Treats life like an adventure, has fun.
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What are some examples of companies with physical network effects?. - Railroads.- $AMZN.- $UHAL .- $FDX / $UPS.- $V / $MA.
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Finally finished reading the Nick Sleep (Nomad) Letters, which are outstanding in every sense. 219 pages worth reading, 13 year track record – 18.4% net-of-fees CAGR vs. MSCI 6.5%. I also looked up the US holdings of his foundation today, no surprises….
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What is the most successful American luxury brand? . I can't think of many to begin with.
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Good day to remind everyone that being an asshole has a negative net present value. Everything compounds, be kind.
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Patek Philippe: “It's estimated that for a Patek Philippe Nautilus, you could be on a wait time for around 5 to 8 years. In some instances, you may be even watch-gazing for up to a decade.”. Marinas: “Hold my beer”
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Reddit is such an underrated investment research tool, especially for consumer names.
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Excellent graphic by the @WSJ showing where the money being spent on a concert is going to across the value chain. (varies case by case but this is the general idea for a big act)
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$LVMH organic growth by group, including 2021 comps. insane
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Best selling high-end watch brands:. 1. Rolex.2. Cartier.3. Omega.4. Audemars Piguet.5. Patek Philippe. (unchanged vs 2021). source: Morgan Stanley
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Controversial Tweet of the Day: Berkshire should acquire Netflix. Solves $BRK huge cash and elephant problem in a sector they understand, while $NFLX can focus on their goal without the quarterly stock market noise/volatility. Ok logging off now, have a great weekend everybody.
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$SPOT Q3: .-640mm MAU +11%.-252mm subs +12%.-Total revenues +21% fxn.-Gross Margin 31.1% (+460bps, premium GM 33.5%).-EBIT margin 11.4% (vs 1% y/y).-Opex down 8% (-14% adj for FX and social charges). Taking a small metaphorical victory lap on this one today, been a bumpy ride.
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A few takeaways from the Morgan Stanley 7th Annual Swiss Watch report:. Polarization continued the Big 4 (Rolex, Patek, AP and Richard Mille) gaining share (+200 bps) and capturing 44% of the market (vs 36.9% in 2019)
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Every time I see someone pitch an Auto OEM stock saying the PE is 4x and it could conservatively go to 6x
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Regardless of the view you have on $RH stock, Gary's explanation of why he bought back 17% of their shares in the quarter deserves a lot of credit. Crazy how 99%+ companies don't think like this.
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The story from the Hermès @AcquiredFM podcast that they hired some consultants in the 70s and they recommended that they should cut prices, increase the number of SKUs and outsource production is the most consulting thing ever.
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Ackman’s best trait is his ability to deal with failure and constantly evolve as an investor. Just incredible.
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Any good pieces/podcasts on the history and success of $MNST Monster beverage? . Trying to reverse engineer how something like this happens. 29% CAGR over 31 years (2400x). I included $AAPL and $BRK for comparison, you can barely see them
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After 5 years of following the story and understanding the business model, I finally fixed one my biggest thumb-sucking mistakes of omission. Long $NFLX 📀.
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For your convenience, I've summarized all the tech earnings calls below
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A simple yet powerful exercise: .If you own 5 stocks for 20 years and: .a) 1 is wiped out .b) 3 grow at the broad market-rate .c) 1 grows at 2x the market-rate. You outperform by 250bps annually and 58% total. Not very intuitive. Lesson: long term compounding can hide mistakes.
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Everybody: we’re entering a recession. $LVMH: Q3 organic sales were up 19% y/y with strong performance across all regions and business groups.
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$BRK outperforming $ARKK since right before the pandemic started. Interesting times. Valuation matters. [Not dunking on anyone here]
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$RH just unveiled its first ever Gallery in Europe: RH England. Pictures look stunning (and expensive).
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So let me get this straight: . Tomorrow at open $NFLX stock will be ~6% higher than it’s pre-pandemic price (Feb-20) but with 33% more subs and 50% higher revenues. Oh, and also *below* 2018 levels. Mr. Market you’re a manic-depressive nut job.
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$AAPL Q1’22—These numbers literally can’t fit in your head. -Products: $104B (+9%).-Services: $19.5B (+24%).-Total Rev +11%.-Gross margin 43.7%.-Op margin 33.5% (+3.5%).-FCF $44.2 (+25%).-$202B cash+securities,$123B in total debt.-Buybacks $20b (-20%, makes sense given valuation).
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Interesting recent VIC Writeup on $NTDOY by 08ird (short summary):. "Nintendo has already expanded its operating margin from ~4% in FY15 to ~35% today. Incredibly, its stock has hardly seen any multiple expansion, despite numerous value-unlocking events that have happened."
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An interesting exercise, inspired by a convo with @eboroian . How to break a DCF:.-Operating leverage.-Accelerating revenue growth.-Completely new businesses.-Tons of M&A or buybacks.-Issuing lots of debt.-Long forecast periods.-others?. More importantly: which companies do this?.
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Which Twitter account is so good that you can get lost on their timeline for hours looking back through Tweets?. @10kdiver comes to mind.
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I want to make sure I follow the best experts on here for each sector. Please tag an account below and specify which sector/companies you consider them experts on. Example:.$BRK @rationalwalk @ChrisBloomstran .Luxury @Retail_Guru @eboroian.EVs @forwardcap .Semis @FoolAllTheTime.
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Even more insane is that AirPods have higher revenues than the *entire* Recorded Music Industry🤯.
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Did I overpay for this or is this the next Margin of Safety?. Anyway look forward to it.
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Buffett with Berkshire’s 2004 federal tax return (pile of 10,000+ pages) and his first tax return filed at age 13 (page on his hand)
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Highlights from the $CSU Compensation Program, which is rare for a public company. The objective is attracting highly skilled executives and reward and retain those who create long-term value for shareholders, but the way they do it is quite unique. 1/n
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The Polarity Portfolio, according to Nick Sleep (Nomad):.“Several large, simple, high conviction holdings, and a tail of more complicated and less certain ideas (but which may have more upside)”. Top 5 holdings 50% of the portfolio, Top 10 75%, and the remaining tail is 20 names.
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An industrial that doesn’t get enough attention:. $AME makes electronic instruments and electromechanical devices, serial acquirer. 80+ acquisitions since 2000.~100% FCF deployed to acquisitions.23% EBIT margin.19% 10yr CAGR.Net Debt/EBITDA 1.4x.~22x fwd P/FCF.ROIC 16%.ROTCE 100%
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I posted the below in an investment forum where someone asked the differences between $ROP and $CSU. This is a very valid question since both acquire and manage VMS businesses. I've followed both closely for a few years and quite a few differences come to mind.
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It’s been 8 years since $FB bought WhatsApp. 1. Why has the pace of innovation been so slow?.2. Why isn’t it being properly monetized? Can it be?.3. Are messaging apps just too hard to monetize? .4. Any tangible evidence this will change soon?. (DMs open if answer is too long).
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Pretty insane that $FB capex for this year is equal to 75% the amount that $TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, will spend… $32B vs. $42B.
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Are you allowed to post your portfolio if you’re underperforming the market YTD?.
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wow. lack of words for this. Rest In Peace giant🙏. Forever grateful for your infinite wisdom and inspiration
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JPMorgan 2023 Best Ideas – Internet.Growth $AMZN .Value $IAC
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One of the most interesting aspects on the online luxury industry is that $AMZN has had close to zero success in breaking in. Probably stays that way too. One less (potentially huge) competitor.
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What company has (>10 years) compounded FCF per share at a far higher rate than their share price has appreciated?. h/t Locked Account (such an excellent question so I wanted to give it more visibility).
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$RACE with a cool 45% incremental margin while shipments grew just 3%. Talk about pricing power.
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🎼Second article out now👩🏼🎤🎵 ‼️. 💿 Everything you always wanted to know about Music Streaming Royalties but were afraid to ask. All in one place, like it’s being explained to a 5-year old🎙. Thank you all! If you enjoy please subscribe and share🙏🏼.
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⚠️New Substack Piece on Investing Conviction⏳. This was a difficult one. It’s such a complex yet fascinating topic that doesn’t get enough attention. It’s also highly personal but hope you can get something out of it. Please share if you enjoy! .
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Sat next to someone on the plane who sold his company to $BRK. Said the process is just as advertised: they leave you alone to do your thing, just send a monthly report to Buffett. Greg was great, took his time to make sure they were comfortable. Seemed very happy with outcome.
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