Ruo Shui
@RuoshuiResearch
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wafers and builders
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for traders, this is understanding expectations and the probability distribution then taking a position out of consensus
for Fed, this is understanding how rate sensitive sectors respond to the yield curve then estimating the time lag between demand growth and supply expansion
In a time of information overload and sophisticated data tools, I think the real edge in macro is on the softer side of things.
Doing the soft things that machines and models can’t do, like contextualization, understanding social meaning, reconciling opposing truths, etc.
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seems like a good day to share my favorite follows in no particular order
Traders/Investors:
@EconstratPB
@wabuffo
@ResearchQf
@selling_theta
@Fullcarry
Macro:
@ernietedeschi
@PrestonMui
/
@IrvingSwisher
@Econ_Parker
@RenMacLLC
@sonusvarghese
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@MichaelKantro
just wanted to say that the best charts for this cycle came from you and
@fundstrat
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@EconstratPB
"Remember. The shape of the yield curve is a policy choice.
Powell is trying to thread a firehose through a needle and steepen the curve at a higher level without a recession.
Bonkers if he gets it done."
i swear i'm not a stalker, i just take notes when David talks
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not many people believed
@robin_j_brooks
last year...
We've been warning of an echo of last year's start-of-year price resets that made inflation in early 2023 look much worse than it really was. That's what today's CPI is. Every category is up, just like a year ago. These start-of-year effects are noise. The Fed should ignore them.
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boomers living their best life and have no idea what to do with their money
will eventually turn into down payments for houses and senior homes
The impact is likely materially lower as well. Much of the interest income earnings is concentrated in high income/wealth cohorts who have a high propensity to save rather than spend.
Even a 50% spend rate (high) would have only added 50bps to nominal GDP over the last 9 qtrs.
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@netcapgirl
just wait until public markets realize technology that reduces the marginal cost of filling out administrative forms to almost zero isn't great for administrative positions
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why
@wabuffo
and
@pinebrookcap
are must follows
even if you do not agree with them
@wabuffo
@davevermilion
You and
@pinebrookcap
have been in nonrecessionary slowdown and were basically the only macro accounts tweeting about productivity on Thursday.
David's statement below blew my mind a bit when I saw it
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@therobotjames
it's about the journey not the destination
and the friends you make along the way
idk tho. stay hydrated
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@mtkonczal
it's worth noting the openings are in lower paying sectors, especially education and health services
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@GasBuddyGuy
@THELumberGuru
not really debatable. capacitor worked as intended
there are many people that don't appreciate just how well we dealt with the pandemic reopening and Russian war
not to mention how the current administration obtained the title of "Best Oil Trader of Pandemic"
H/T
@JosephPolitano
,
@Macrodispatch
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@wabuffo
just in case people say no market call was made...
@Venturinglist
@dampedspring
@EconstratPB
@BobEUnlimited
Gonna hurt when long end drops below 4% again this year, eh?
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@profplum99
no, my point is tech stock correlations flipped and iwm was the only green index on cpi day. and that wasn't by accident
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@DiMartinoBooth
got rent growth?
Apartment renters renewing their leases in 2024 are likely to see much smaller rent increases than they saw in any of the prior 3 years. Why? Because operators have a lot less runway on rents right now.
We measure this through what the industry calls "loss-to-lease" -- the
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there are many people that don't appreciate just how well we dealt with the pandemic reopening and Russian war
not to mention how the current administration obtained the title of "Best Oil Trader of Pandemic"
H/T
@JosephPolitano
,
@Macrodispatch
hawks continue to ignore productivity growth
for them, inflation is only a demand growth story and supply never expands
for some reason, some of them like quoting crude prices without mentioning crack spreads
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@John_J_Ahearn
@EconstratPB
@stevehouf
the worst part is it's become apparent a lot of bond bears have been just expressing their political bias
if these "experts" can't even admit they have been wrong, the average voter won't be able to tell the difference between "inflation" and borrow cost
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@talmonsmith
@DeanBaker13
@joebrusuelas
@EconomicPolicy
@WhiteHouseCEA
@keds_economist
@peterdwilliams
@employamerica
@PrestonMui
think new business creation needs more public discourse
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reports of the death of 60/40 have been greatly exaggerated (albeit a bit expensive)
Rolling 60-day correlation between changes in S&P 500 and 10y Treasury yield now at highest in more than a year
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@BBKogan
yeah, but this courtship of disillusioned millennials needs to be taken seriously
housing needs to be the number one issue
@Brendan_Duke
Satoshi would say "none"
@KamalaHarris
needs to take this seriously as it is courting younger generations disillusioned with the gov amid low housing affordability and wide asset gaps
"strategic homebuilder reserve" might be a decent counter
H/T
@PEWilliams_
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Sports betting legalization reduces net investments of households by nearly 14% overall.
$1 of sports betting reduces net investment
by over $2, increases credit card debt, but has no effect on participation in lotteries or other online gambling
outlets.
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imagine thinking cash is king for 18 months straight
during a raging bull market
the type of person who has been riding NVDA up almost 100% in 2 months: do you think when they sell they are more likely to just sit in cash, or do they take a bunch of those profits and and buy other stocks?
this explains some of the psychology of what's been happening
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i think my favorite thing this weekend is r* fell from one NFP print
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@stevehouf
it's been weird to see financial folks not being able to see the connection between regulatory capture and wealth gap
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@EconstratPB
@KingLurker12
"I'm at that stage in life where I stay out of discussions. Even if you say 1+1=5, you're right - have fun."
- Keanu Reeves
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@mikesimonsen
US 30yr is truly overpowered
georgie crossing the delaware so we can get 30-year fixed mortgages, and not that british variable junk
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oof
“Oh I was right Buffett was selling AAPL”
“Oh I was right AAPL earnings were shit”
“Oh I was right they have no growth”
😎💀😎
Did you make any money though?
Still waiting for that 150 eh!
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@Claudia_Sahm
now, a clever man would say cut because he would know that only a great fool would reach for pause. i am not a great fool so i can clearly not choose cut, but you must have known i was not a great fool; you would have counted on it, so i can clearly not choose pause
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if i could only follow two people, it would probably be
@ResearchQf
and
@EconstratPB
probably will find out who actually understands AI and housing on a longer timeframe this quarter
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alone from start to finish
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@EPBResearch
fiscal impulse that slows in 2H
US population grew +3.8M in 2023 - the largest one-year increase in US history.
(We think a recent Census estimate of +1.6M growth underestimated immigration flows.)
The surge is likely short-lived as its almost all from immigration, which is conditional on policy,
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@robin_j_brooks
while i agree the g vs r math could use some improvement, i think the reverse repo chart probably gives some context for the short term issuance
if one zooms in on the pandemic period - its obvious reverse repo (RRP) operations filled the need for more safe cash-equivalent assets. Without the RRP, the US would've seen negative yields. The Bill issuance in 2023 is normalizing things - and not Yellen manipulating rates
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i don't know who needs to hear this but trading isn't a team sport, typically with < 4 months timeframe
i define investing with > 2 years intended allocation with rebalancing at (subjectively perceived) market pivots
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@dampedspring
@Citrini7
@netcapgirl
@wabuffo
@jam_croissant
@pinebrookcap
In no particular order, these people have helped me prepare for March 2024
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@SaaSletter
@GavinSBaker
@atelicinvest
@matt_slotnick
similar to everything else, might need to disaggregate by generation
2) might guess. More detailed productivity comments in this table.
I literally asked almost anyone I've talk to since last summer how much AI improved productivity, personally or at their employers, be it finance, tech or otherwise.
Some are v impressive Millennials or Gen Z's.
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the "p" word and the fiscal/monetary dance
$SPX $QQQ $SGOV $IEF $TLT
$NVDA $MSFT $LLY $NVO $WW
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an issue with this place is that people are obsessed with being "right" and "wrong"
and then say the market is wrong
maybe. maybe not...but good takes usually don't start out with credentials and a red book...assuming the book exists...
for anyone interested in being less wrong, mental toughness and insight into unique aspects of financial and market plumbing i strongly recommend following my friend James. he’s long been a resource to the institutional risk taking community and is opening up here.
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Whether productivity growth is "real" is probably the most important question for 2024
The key to sustaining the deficit is productivity growth, which provides downward pressure on inflation while maintaining NGDP growth
H/T
@MarcGoldwein
,
@NickTimiraos
and
@kylascan
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the housing squad...and probably the most important follows for this quarter
@calculatedrisk
@mikesimonsen
@jayparsons
@odetakushi
@RickPalaciosJr
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@salolrac
@EconstratPB
@zerohedge
to a certain extent, social media amplifies extreme vibes and makes it harder to be optimistic long term as people just try to live and improve their lives
especially when moderate opinions are silent
📢New Preprint!📢
@JayVanBavel
,
@KareenadelRosa
and I go inside the "Funhouse Mirror Factory" of Social Media to explain how SM is distorting our perception of social norms-- by making moderate opinions practically invisible and over-representing the most extreme voices.
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@talmonsmith
the disconnect with millennials without homes seems to be treating borrow cost as "inflation"
basically interpreting prospective interest payments as "future consumption"
meanwhile, low affordability (although improved slightly recently) has been driving service spending
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@conorsen
been having similar thoughts
@vebaccount
think the twist is some consumption would be reduced if homes were more affordable
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@Claudia_Sahm
when people disagree and ask great questions is one thing
if a comment detracts from the twitter experience is another thing
Last week, I wrote on why blocking is an essential part of any healthy social media site. That Elon wants to eliminate it proves my point: The people who most hate blocking are those who don't want to be disciplined for being anti-social on the internet.
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@nope_its_lily
missing productivity
inherent to most fiscal dominant arguments is that there is no productivity growth, hence some of these folks seek out gold and bitcoin
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@wabuffo
@TimM44950627
@BobEUnlimited
@pinebrookcap
Labor is the best analog to the 70s. Not oil. Powell gave his levels for wage growth and productivity (and that was before GPT-4 and GLP-1)
@wabuffo
I think wage growth = inflation rate is a misconception. Powell even talked about the level of wage growth consistent with 2% inflation at Brookings last year
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@dampedspring
Doesn't this ignore supply though?
@BobEUnlimited
@pinebrookcap
Even ignoring real rates...the answer is supply
whether that's in the form of apartments/houses, refineries, green energy, data centers, robots, work force increase from employment (empowering disabled and healthier) remains to be seen
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