Marc Goldwein
@MarcGoldwein
Followers
21K
Following
113K
Media
6K
Statuses
115K
Proud dad. Nonpartisan budget wonk + econ prof. Tweeting on fiscal & economic policy & the world. Thoughts are 𝐦𝐲 𝐨𝐰𝐧!
Washington, DC
Joined November 2011
Our new baby boy arrived! . 9 pounds and healthy!. Our gestational carrier (surrogate) is doing great as well. Please consider donating to her daughters college fund:.
76
7
510
If Sadam has to ability to travel through time and space and still lost two Gulf Wars, that’s really on him.
27
1K
18K
Raise your hand if you want this plane landing in your town?. America paid unimaginable costs in Afghanistan because of uniparty globalists who dominated the Bush & Obama administrations. No more…
80
2K
15K
Student debt cancellation will:. ⚫️ Cost $400 to $600 billion. ⚫️ Wipe out Inflation Reduction Act savings twice over. ⚫️ Add up to a quarter point to inflation . ⚫️ Benefit MDs, JDs, and MBAs. ⚫️ Drive up tuition costs. ⚫️ Increase risk or recession . Great job, folks.
1K
3K
12K
Q. Can you microwave a metal fork?. A. Yes. The microwave is big enough to fit the fork, and will turn on with the fork in it if you hit the start button.
Q: Can we afford a #GreenNewDeal?.A: Yes. The federal government can afford to buy whatever is for sale in its own currency.
172
2K
8K
Hello, police: I'd like to report a felony chart crime.
125
626
7K
Every $1 you cut IRS funding will lose about $2 of revenue. So that means this bill would add about $30 billion to the deficit.
NEWS w @bresreports -- HOUSE REPUBLICANS' Israel aid bill is out. It offsets $14.3 billion in Israel aid with $14.3 bllion in cuts to IRS from the Inflation Reduction Act. This offset will NEVER, EVER fly. Dems will reject it out of hand. Here's the bill:.
175
2K
4K
1) Regressive.2) Expensive.3) Makes inflation worse.4) Drives Up Tuition .5) Totally Unfair.6) Leads to more bogus degree programs.7) Disproportionately benefits MDs & JDs making 6 figures.8) Does nothing for the 87% of people - disproportionately poorer - with no student debt.
I still haven’t heard a reason against student debt cancelation that isn’t rooted in cruelty.
306
605
4K
I very strongly support President Biden's call for a broad vaccine mandate, and think it takes real leadership to call for it. But I do think it's true that if Trump had proposed the same policy, most of left-twitter would be freaking out right now.
3K
190
3K
This isn’t antisemitism.
Hey @Delta - did you add Palestine as a new summer route?. Your customers on a Boston to West Palm Beach flight yesterday were perplexed to see your flight attendant adorning a flag of Palestine pin.
16
43
3K
Sad to see he couldn’t turn his life around.
A judge gave a drug dealer a second chance. Sixteen years later, he swore him in as a lawyer.
23
214
2K
ANALYSIS - rescinding IRS funding will increase the deficit by 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 $𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, encourage tax cheating, and cut the tax enforcement budget well below what President Trump wanted.
249
922
2K
Very misleading & dangerous. In this analysis, vaccines prevent ~80% of Delta infections (much larger share of sickness). That 80% CANNOT spread the virus. This is only about the other 20%, and even there it’s speculative. Getting vaccinated protects you and your community!.
Breaking News: The Delta variant is as contagious as chickenpox and may be spread by vaccinated people as easily as the unvaccinated, an internal C.D.C. report said.
44
497
2K
She’s Palestinian!. If she hangs a Hamas flag, we can talk. Otherwise, lay off!.
New: Rep. Rashida Tlaib still has a Palestinian flag hanging outside her House Office amid Hamas’ invasion of Israel. Story: .
88
100
2K
I’m sorry, but this refrain boils my blood. A family of 5 with *no* income loss will ultimately receive $17,000 to $25,000 from COVID relief bills. If one earner in that family lost their job, they may receive $50,000 to $100,000 (including state UI) plus health care.
A one-time $1,400 check is simply not enough to pay the bills. We’re one year into this pandemic, and many Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. Let’s pass $2k monthly checks.
84
324
2K
In the federal budget system, the policy is made by two separate, yet equally important, committee staff: the tax staffers, who raise the money; and the health and retirement staffers, who spend it. These are their stories.
33
270
2K
🚨WOW🚨. Thanks to the SALT 🧂 cap increase, over two-thirds of millionaires will get a TAX CUT under Build Back Better.
99
657
2K
🚨FINAL ANALYSIS🚨 . Vice President Harris would add roughly $4 trillion to the national debt, under our central estimate. President Trump would add almost $8 trillion to the national debt, under our central estimate. READ: via @BudgetHawks . Short 🧵
123
492
2K
This would be a $500 BILLION TAX CUT, with over $400 billion going to the top 5% of households. This is more than they are spending on ANYTHING ELSE in the bill. It's 2.5x as much as they are spending on child tax credit and EITC combined!.
NEWS in @PunchbowlNews Midday: Democrats eyeing a 5-year SALT deductibility cap delay, per multiple sources. Final decision this afternoon. VERY TENTATIVE. More shortly in midday edition — out in the next 10 minutes. From @bresreports and me.
91
672
1K
Cancelling student debt AND opposing new housing units. So progressive.
44
37
1K
Obviously I sell partial rights to the $50 million to institutional investors at a discount and walk away with a guaranteed ~$20 million.
If you could choose only one button. Which one do you choose and why?
17
52
1K
Imagine paying for $10,000 of debt cancellation and an extended pause for mostly higher-income households with a flat 0.2% payroll tax on all workers, including those who didn’t go to college. That’s basically what the WH is discussing .
89
399
1K
Revenue idea - what about a very tiny email tax - say .01 cents per sent email. For the typical person, this might mean a tax of a couple bucks per year. But it would put a price on email marketing, spamming, etc.
101
109
1K
I wasn’t the biggest fan of how PPP was designed. But I find the inability to understand the difference between emergency business grants and after-the-fact student debt forgiveness either very cynical or very troubling.
Some of the same Republicans in Congress who strongly opposed giving relief to students got hundreds of thousands of dollars of relief for themselves to keep their businesses open. I find this hypocrisy stunning.
156
135
1K
Higher taxes reduce inflation and reduce recession risk.
237
123
995
@ImtiazMadmood This is true. But also, Palestinians live there now -- especially in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem. And so there should be a Palestinian state. For the first time.
521
37
1K
A typical unemployed workers will receive $35,000 over the course of a year (closer to $40k if they have a family) even if the Biden plan isn’t enacted.
America has ppl begging for ONE $2k check, when Australia gave $24,000 in a year.
27
148
966
Black Lives Matter. No Human is Illegal. Love is Love. Women's Rights are Human Rights. The Wealthiest Americans Must Be Able to Deduct All of Their State & Local Taxes.
27
130
952
Stewart is incorrect here. In addition to the $277 billion of new funding, the bill reclassified $390 billion of EXISTING discretionary funding as mandatory. Here is the Congressional Budget Office:
186
335
909
WSJ has a bit more: Moderna wants to do a smaller 50cc dose to reach more people and have fewer side effects. FDA wants 100cc to reduce confusion from changing dosages and avoid wastage from discarding unused doses in a vial. Policy Qs not efficacy Qs.
25
148
862
So we're just making stuff up now, I guess.
Guess what? It also grows the economy. Benefits everybody. Hurts nobody.
58
80
912
Meanwhile, this was the UN during a presentation on the sexual violence of October 7.
Kill 26,000 people, execute children and women in Iran, forcibly displace 7 million Syrians, fund and plan the October 7th genocide in Israel, support terrorists in Yemen, Gaza, and Iraq, and chant "death to America." Then, die in a helicopter crash, and the UN will stand for a
13
147
897
Folks who claimed inflation would last ~3 months and go away on its own are now declaring they were right because it lasts (at least) 20 months and seems to (hopefully) be fading after 400 basis points of rate hikes.
We'll get more data in the weeks ahead, but at this point the burden of proof lies on anyone claiming that we had more than a, well, transitory inflation spike that's mostly behind us 6/.
60
158
895
Struggling borrowers in need of student debt cancellation and SALT cap relief.
How would you describe the socioeconomic status of this neighborhood?
9
67
848
🚨HOLY MOLY🚨 Extending the 2017 tax cuts (TCJA) would add almost $𝟯.𝟱 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 to the debt.
57
305
749
Only 1/4 of student debt is paid by people in the bottom 60% of the income spectrum.
Student debt cancellation is racial justice. Student debt cancellation is gender justice. Student debt cancellation is economic justice.
22
120
808
Hi Twitter, it’s me Marc Goldwein — the guy who has been screaming we are going to have/having high inflation for 14 months and pushing back against all the desperate “team transitory” arguments. Inflation is July was 0%.
30
50
784
Cheat sheet on who would get how much in $2,000 checks -
176
297
774
Here’s about $2 trillion, if you did the most aggressive version of each policy:.1) prevent Medicare Advantage ‘upcoding’.2) pay hospitals the same as doctors offices.3) prevent states and hospitals from colluding to inflate their federal Medicaid match.4) end Medicare Advantage.
The government can legitimately save trillions over a decade by reducing waste and improving efficiency — and I hope we do. Achieving these savings requires major changes to how and how much we pay for health care. That’s the ball game!.
72
166
801
If you lost your job on April 1 and are helping to support a family of 5, you’ve gotten ~$22,000 of cash aid.
6 months. One $1200 stimulus check. If that doesn't convince you we need to flip the Senate, I don't know what will.
60
106
734
🚨Holy Moly🚨 We're on course to spend $𝟎.𝟗 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏.𝟒 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 on debt cancellation. That's more than we spent ALL higher education spending before 2020, and as much as we are on course to appropriate for TOTAL education over the next decade.
72
276
755
But you lived there the whole time!.
If you bought a home in the United States in the year 2000 for $250,000 cash and it is worth $433,000 today, you did not actually make any money. You just kept up with average inflation. And if you add in any cost of maintenance, you’ve actually lost money on the ‘investment’.
17
32
690
This kind of vigilante justice is totally unacceptable.
The group of around 100 young Californian Jews and their allies continues to tear down the encampment at UCLA. The arrived on campus after a young Jewish girl was beaten unconscious by the pro-Hamas students and activists occupying campus grounds
335
47
641
A 5-Year SALT cap repeal would be the LARGEST part of Build Back Better. Even just the part going to the top 5% would be. Budgeting is about values. Are these really our values?
68
212
627
The pause itself costs almost twice as much as the entire Pell Grant program. But while Pell Grants go to low- and middle-income undergraduate students, the debt pause disproportionately benefits high-income Americans with advanced degrees.
23
199
628
This is the money to help schools re-open this Spring or maybe next Fall. See anything suspicious?
45
197
621
I'm just a simply country policy guy, but maybe the politicians should have been a little more worried about dumping $2 trillion into an economy that only faced a $400 billion output gap?.
Yup. Basically the whole story: if prices don't come down, Democrats are completely, utterly hosed, no matter what else they do or what message they choose.
34
88
632
Let’s be clear - the first line doesn’t describe the House bill, and the logic train from there is riddled with errors. Whoever wrote this must have bombed the LSAT.
I hear House Republicans out on TV saying they would never vote to cut veterans’ benefits. In case there’s any confusion, I made a little chart that could help them out.
58
106
635
Literally her pinned tweet is a proposal to swap the $600 for $2000, not add $2000 to it
Tlaib’s proposal from last month literally strikes the $600 to replace it with $2000. By my math, $2000-$600=$1400.
12
81
574
@mattyglesias I’m glad it’s a joke for u Matt and that you’re lucky enough to get access to great childcare, but for those who have to spend all day with their kids, it’s not funny. Hope you can have a little more empathy, especially today.
42
0
598
🧵𝐖𝐨𝐧𝐤-𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝🧵 . With interest rates at a 16-year high and surging, it’s a good time to talk what 𝐑 𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐮𝐬 𝐆 means for debt dynamics. In summary: .⦿ 𝐑<𝐆 improves debt sustainability.⦿ 𝐑<𝐆 doesn't guarantee sustainability.⦿ 𝐑>𝐆 now, so that's bad!. 🧵.
35
183
612
There is no justification for this extension. The unemployment rate is likely to be near the lowest in 50 years by May, and household balance sheets as strong as ever. Repayment pause costs more than Pell Grants and higher ed tax credits combined.
228
95
582
🚨 BREAKING 🚨 - Pres Trump’s campaign plans would lead to a 𝟑𝟑 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐂𝐮𝐭 ✂️ by driving the #SocialSecurity to 𝒊𝒏𝒔𝒐𝒍𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒚 by 𝟐𝟎𝟑𝟏. See . 1/. The Trump plans will drain $𝟐.𝟑 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 from
48
323
524
The average middle class family gets a 15 𝑑𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑟 tax cut from SALT cap repeal. You read that correctly!. But don't worry, the top 1% gets $35,660 on average.
34
89
556
@kevinbaum013 1) we shouldn’t when it’s just for the sake of giving them cash – – – which is why we got a cut farm subsidies a lot.2) when we do, it should be to ensure adequate and stable food supply. Same applies for student debt borrowers — subsidies make sense to help people afford college.
44
5
559
@besttrousers @JeffBezos @LHSummers BBB was not “fully paid for” in any meaningful way, particularly not in the early years when inflation threat is greatest.
21
27
537
This was the last letter my grandfather received from his father, who was murdered in Auschwitz. #HolocaustMemorialDay
25
85
499
So there’s going to be like $500 billion of cancellation, isn’t there?. If so, I. don’t want to hear another word about how this WH is using Fiscal policy to fight inflation.
72
62
554
Rumored "skinny repeal" is NOT reconciliation compliant. Needs $133b of on-budget savings (per AHCA), only has $78b.
23
345
441
Make this your legacy, @realDonaldTrump. Spend the next 2 months smoothing this process, explaining how safe and important these vaccines are to your followers, and passing federal aid to get us from now through when we're all vaccinated.
Another Vaccine just announced. This time by Moderna, 95% effective. For those great “historians”, please remember that these great discoveries, which will end the China Plague, all took place on my watch!.
80
57
463
Who do you think is better off?.1) a doctor making $250,000 per year with $200,000 of debt and $100,000 of investment. 2) A waitress making $40,000 a year with $2,000 in her bank account. On paper, the waitress is much wealthier.
The majority of student loans are held by those with zero, or negative household wealth. Imagine thinking canceling student debt is “elitist.”.
32
45
526
After 3 days of review, I feel comfortable saying pretty definitively — no they didn’t.
Last year, for the first time on record, the 400 wealthiest Americans paid a lower total tax rate than any other income group.
14
88
490
🚨NEW ANALYSIS🚨 -- Build Back Better might deliver a net TAX CUT to the rich in the first two years. A new @BudgetHawks analysis shows why SALT cap repeal could consume all the tax increases on the highest earners, and then some.
42
245
472
Fact check: SALT repeal has almost no direct effect on state finances. It just raises taxes on rich people IN those states - most of who will still get a net tax cut.
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are launching a coalition to sue the federal government to reverse the unjust tax law. We will not stand idly by as the federal government attacks the fiscal health of our states.
69
224
451
“So, why did so many forecasters, and I, get this so wrong?. …I unfairly dismissed the most boring, Econ 101 explanation for why inflation happens: that there was too much money sloshing around for the amount of stuff the economy was able to produce.”
58
92
490
This guy needs to be fired.
Parents, don’t hold your breath… CDC & FDA abandoned their posts. Keep sticking with your intuition and keep those COVID jabs away from your kids.
38
33
380
@Noahpinion Isn’t the saying that you don’t have to read the papers cited in the papers you’re citing?. That would be having to read dozens or hundreds of papers for every paper you cite.
21
2
488
🚨WHOA🚨 - The cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts is 𝟓𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 than originally believed. That's like a $1.2 trillion increase, and it's been growing every year!.
32
250
409
Reminder that this is exactly what happened last time there was a 50-50 Senate and Republican President.
Odds that Mitch McConnell would agree to even numbers on committees if there were a Republican president and a 50-50 chamber. ZERO.
24
63
419
Less than 1% of the benefit will go to the middle class.
Salt isn’t just for bagels! The SALT deduction provides real relief to middle class taxpayers in New Jersey and across the country. Tom is working on the bipartisan SALT caucus to restore this essential deduction for his constituents. #SummerOfSALT
18
96
444
JCT JUST ESTIMATED THE TAX BILL WILL INCREASE AVERAGE GROWTH BY LESS THAN 0.02% PER YEAR! 0⃣. 0⃣2⃣%! THAT'S WHY WE BLEW A $1.5 TRILLION HOLE IN DEFICIT? ARE YOU KIDDING ME.
26
223
375
I You are comparing inflation-adjusted wages to nominal prices, my man.
26
37
416
The true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its weakest doctors, lawyers, and MBAs.
Psaki: Biden executive action on canceling some student debt "still on the table"
15
46
430
🚨ANALYSIS🚨 - If the @POTUS cancels student debt, it will wipe out virtually ALL of the fiscal and inflationary gains from the Inflation Reduction Act.
147
103
413
Adjusted for inflation, inflation is 0.
Real Inflation is less than 2%.
9
12
422
A two-year SALT cap repeal will cost more than TEN years of universal pre-k, or paid family leave. It will cost nearly as much as ten years of expanded EITC and child care credit credits. And it will cost more than making the current law CTC refundable permanently.
I’m fighting tirelessly to ensure that the reconciliation bill includes a repeal of the SALT cap — to deliver a much-needed tax cut to hard-working middle class families across Northern New Jersey. The SALT cap has hurt New Jersey families for too long.
20
107
406
@tedfrank @realStevenWalk Seems unfair to trans women without uteruses or cis women who has hysterectomies.
7
3
411
Bring on the “actually doctors and lawyers making over $250,000 a year are middle class”.
27
5
391
Politico does not say any of these people were hanging out, it only says they were at the same Christmas party. Even if they were hanging out, not clear to me what the story is….
Brett Kavanaugh was seen hanging out at a Republican party with Matt Gaetz, Sebastian Gorka, Sean Spicer, and Erik Prince, per @politico.
52
65
415
For the cost of all this debt cancellation, we could have 𝒕𝒓𝒊𝒑𝒍𝒆𝒅 or perhaps 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐝𝐫𝐮𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐝 Pell Grants. Instead, we're paying doctors, lawyers, and MBAs who already have their degrees!.
🚨Holy Moly🚨 We're on course to spend $𝟎.𝟗 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏.𝟒 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 on debt cancellation. That's more than we spent ALL higher education spending before 2020, and as much as we are on course to appropriate for TOTAL education over the next decade.
22
119
410
I’m not sure who needs to hear this, but revenue increases — especially from cutting tax breaks — would help to fight inflation, slow interest rate growth, and reduce the risk of a recession.
48
30
379
Excited to announce we’re expecting a baby boy via a gestational carrier (surrogate) this Election Day. It’s been a long journey, and we’re so grateful to our surrogate. In lieu of gifts, please contribute to her daughters’s college fund: .
62
8
403
He's either lying or he's stupid. Either way, seems problematic that the head of the UN doesn't know about 30,000 dead Ukrainian civilians, the 300,000+ Syrian civilians who died, or the 400,000-600,000 Ethiopian deaths. These are all (rounded) UN numbers.
“We are witnessing a killing of civilians that is unparalleled and unprecedented in any conflict since I have been Secretary General”- UN chief @antonioguterres
31
92
394
I’m pretty confident you can’t raise the minimum wage through reconciliation, but I bet you could make wages below $15/hour non deductible for businesses.
It’s long past time to raise the minimum wage, so hardworking people earn at least $15 an hour. I hope that Democratic control of the House and Senate will ensure prompt action to get it done.
22
38
353
Fun fact -- the Inflation Reduction Act will probably reduce net federal SPENDING by 2027 or so.
11
37
353
California is now running a $25 billion SURPLUS. Explain to me why we're sending than $41 billion more?
NEW: CA is now projected to have $10.3 billion more than we projected in our #CABudget. That’s more support for our small businesses, vaccine administration, schools, and more.
45
129
369
🚨WOW 🚨. President Trump added $𝟖.𝟒 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 to the debt when in office, and President Biden has added $𝟒.𝟑 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 so far. Via @BudgetHawks . 1/3
36
111
351
1) Actual savings are closer to 6% of Medicare costs.2) Savings would REDUCE costs for beneficiaries, and mostly resemble those in Obama budgets & Obamacare.3) If people can't stomach these savings, no way they'll be able to stomach payment reductions required for #Medicare4All.
Donald Trump just made it official: He wants to cut Medicare by 10%
16
113
342
Write the tax law you want and then enforce it. We should be funding the IRS so we can collect taxes as accurate as possible - enforcement shouldn’t be a tool for redistribution.
The IRS will “substantially” decrease audits on refundable tax credits that benefit low-income taxpayers in an effort to reduce racial disparities, the agency said.
28
35
358
Permitting reform, might’ve helped with this, just saying.
President Biden has privately flashed impatience to his senior advisers, expressing deep frustration that he can’t show off physical construction of many projects that his signature legislative accomplishments will fund, sources say w/@Kevinliptakcnn
7
44
354
If firms don’t raise prices in the face of constrained capacity and surging demand, the other option is shortages. Does that seem preferable to folks?.
38
25
354