Arnab Datta
@ArnabDatta321
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Personal Account. Views my own & RT/Likes do not equal endorsements. Currently at @employamerica , @ifp
Washington, DC
Joined January 2017
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Pinned Tweet
Weekend read
@FTAlphaville
: "Reimagining the SPR" from Daleep Singh and me.
We adapt the Fed’s playbook for risk management to commodities.
(Note: we wrote this well before Daleep's decision to rejoin the admin, views are in our personal capacity).
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This, the supposed serious position, totally ignores how supremely unserious the debt ceiling is. It’s the true end-run around the political process, allowing Congress to use the threat of global economic catastrophe to achieve what it can’t through the normal political process.
Invoking the 14th Amendment to avoid default on the debt is a terrible idea, not for legal reasons, but political. It would be an end-run around the political process, and set a terrible precedent for future end-runs by Republicans when they are in a position to do it.
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Staggering. This puts a lot of context on the scale and challenge of building a domestic EV industry.
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THREAD 1/n:
@SenatorBennet
just released a fantastic, comprehensive reform proposal for unemployment insurance (UI). He’s been working on it for months, it’s not intended to be a response to the COVID crisis, but should be considered as we think about UI reform moving forward.
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All I want for Christmas is permitting reform
President Biden has privately flashed impatience to his senior advisers, expressing deep frustration that he can’t show off physical construction of many projects that his signature legislative accomplishments will fund, sources say w/
@Kevinliptakcnn
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THREAD (1/n):
@ChrisCoons
intro'd a great bill to strengthen supply chain resilience and revive America’s manufacturing, (w/
@MarkWarner
,
@SenatorBennet
,
@AmyKlobuchar
,
@SenatorWarnock
,
@ChrisVanHollen
,
@SenGaryPeters
). Link:
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Strike me as one of those things companies can just announce without providing any actual evidence...
Target says it's closing these 9 stores due to theft/crime
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THREAD (1/n): Sometime soon, Leader McConnell will release his plan for economic stimulus moving forward. It’s too late. Even with an extension, many states will not be able to reprogram their computers in time to avoid a lapse in the $600 payments.
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🚨🚨🚨 GOOD LEGISLATING ALERT!
Sens.
@MittRomney
and
@SenatorShaheen
introduced a bill giving DOD's Office of Strategic Capital the authority to make limited equity investments.
Most importantly - it includes a budgetary fix so that OSC can make full use of the authority. 🧵
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Seeing this a few places -- I love YIMBY but the idea that
@ewarren
is new to this is wrong. She's been a leader on increasing housing supply for years.
Here's her Housing and Economic Mobility Act, which through several levers, sought to build/refurbish over 3 million homes.
The incredible success of the YIMBY movement is a reminder that change is possible in public policy.
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I’m sure this point has been made before but remember how people lionized Mark Zuckerberg for dropping out of college? Feel like a few ethics, history, or social science classes would’ve been good for that guy
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This brief is the first argument I’ve seen that lays out the Presentment Clause challenge for the debt ceiling (admittedly though I haven’t read everything). I think it’s a great arg, and here’s the basics. Quick thread.
Interesting...
The National Association of Government Employees has today filed for an emergency injunction in their case challenging the constitutionality of the debt ceiling statute.
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@mattyglesias
@PEWilliams_
I suspect that Paul read this tweet as implying that labor organizers are the ones pushing buy-in to the full progressive agenda — a fair reading imho
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This is good. The US should work with allies like South Korea to build reserves integrated into financial markets to stabilize prices and ensure sufficient production.
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Next-gen geothermal has a capital problem. In our fourth installment of Hot Rocks,
@ash_georgexx
and I show how policymakers can encourage capital investment for next-gen geothermal projects. 1/
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I really want to emphasize a point here: expectation of higher demand is not enough to drive production. The producer tends to be profitable in a time of scarcity. We need a policy shift so that abundance is profitable.
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Here it is folks -- the final rule issued by DOE. Will have more to say shortly, but this is the big part, DOE can now use fixed-price contracts for acquisition.
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Generally, govt investment in better, faster data collection would be a huge win
Sen.
@MittRomney
pushes CDC’s Walensky on covid data lags.
Businesses get daily data reports to make decisions, Romney says - so why is US data picture so bad?
ROMNEY: “Do we need to invest in either developing a new subagency or a task force to get... immediate data?”
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Reminder: decarbonization is fundamentally a challenge of investment.
We need to utilize every policy lever to ensure the environment is ripe for investment.
One of the world's largest producers of Lithium says it may reduce capex because of low current spot prices
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BFD from
@BLMNational
, issuing a categorical exclusion for geothermal energy.
Bravo, look forward to digging into this.
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Really excited about this piece from me and
@IrvingSwisher
, the second in the joint series “Hot Rocks” by
@employamerica
and
@IFP
.
This one explores how public policy played a key role in accelerating the shale revolution. 1/
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Would like to see this get even one tenth the attention that fossil projects get from activists.
If this holds, it is a generational setback for climate policy in the United States. Worse than the Mountain Valley pipeline. Worse than the Willow oil project in Alaska. Making drivers pay to pollute in city centers is a TIER ONE climate policy issue in America.
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THREAD (1/5): Pretty clear articulation of how important the added UI benefits have been, and what's at stake from
@SenatorBennet
. "Had we not done this, tens of millions of families ... would have seen their incomes drop by 60%, 70%, or more. We prevented that from happening."
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I know inflation’s bad but we just got this ugly table for free and I reassembled it while catching up on supply chain episodes of Odd Lots
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Really excited to announce Hot Rocks: Commercializing Next-Generation Geothermal Energy, a joint project of
@employamerica
and
@IFP
. This will be a multi-part series examining the potential to commercialize next-generation geothermal energy. 1/
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(2/n): That $600 payment has kept families in their homes, prevented child hunger, and capped a rise in poverty. Without an extension, 32,003,330 unemployed workers will see upto 60-70% income cuts overnight. And the fault of that is entirely on Mitch McConnell.
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New piece out with
@alexbhturnbull1
, the 1st in a set of pieces on how a critical minerals club can limit price volatility of lithium. In it, we argue that a club should focus on spodumene, a lithium precursor. .
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Check out this great piece from
@AidanRMackenzie
. Amongst permitting reforms we can make, putting geothermal on the same regulatory footing as fossil fuels is a total no-brainer.
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@AlecStapp
Interesting paper! Seems worth mentioning that the major purpose/benefit of the law can't really be quantified (and isn't at all here, which paper readily admits).
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Reminder that one of the most harmful forces of structural racism is NIMBYism.
Here's "local control:" after Palo Alto voters killed 60 affordable apts for seniors, 16, 4000 sq. ft. homes selling for $5 million will be built on the site.
@cayimby
@anniefryman
@PaloAltoYimby
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A new report from me,
@alexbhturnbull
&
@vebaccount
, on why
@ENERGY
can and should help build and support the financial and market infrastructure for critical minerals.
Short answer: it would make our clean energy supply chain more resilient. A thread 🧵1/
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Thread (1/n): Wrote a piece with
@IrvingSwisher
and
@vebaccount
on how the White House can curb inflation by driving down healthcare prices. Lots of great pieces from others as well.
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THREAD (1/n): With the spate of recent stories and podcasts on automatic stabilizers, I thought it would be worth a thread about a less discussed benefit of automatic stabilizers: as a forcing mechanism to improve administrative capacity and response for an economic crisis.
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New piece up on the
@employamerica
blog. Congress has a meaningful opportunity to reduce inflation through the healthcare sector. Thread.
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Or alternatively, it can't force the President to make cuts that aren't authorized. The spending cuts that the debt ceiling would force have not passed through that process, and therefore, would be unconstitutional.
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This is a legislative policy decision that Treasury is not authorized to make.
NEW: Treasury officials are quietly laying the groundwork to start potentially delaying payments after June 1.
They're briefing other federal agencies on the contingency plan for a debt limit breach.
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Kudos to
@ENERGY
! They just announced a July 2024 contract for the SPR. Pretty awesome to see future, fixed-priced acquisition almost six months out!
DOE getting closer to a timeline that matches the shale investment cycle.
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**NEWS**
@ENERGY
just announced a MAY solicitation for 3m barrels.
This is the furthest out they’ve been able to execute a fwd contract, another big step fwd, and comes on the heels of an April solicitation just a week ago.
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With spot prices rising -- this is the type of flexibility you want
@ENERGY
to exercise.
If prices fall and settle in a lower range, they can issue new solicitations. But with some tightness and risk right now, there's no need to take supply off the private market.
❖ US DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY SAYS IT WILL NOT AWARD OIL SUPPLY CONTRACTS FOR THE BAYOU CHOCTAW SPR SITE IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER DUE TO OIL PRICE
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Probably a good idea for folks talking about what Dems did wrong to explain how their analysis squares with flipping MI, WI, probably Pa back, and picking up Ga and Az (probably)... almost like it’s a complicated situation that doesn’t beget(?) simple, CW analysis...
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(25/n): Too often, the federal government has not socialized enough of the gains from its grants. The problem with “the Solyndra program” wasn’t Solyndra--it was that we didn’t collect any equity upside from our support to Tesla. See
@MazzucatoM
, .
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New piece from me and
@IrvingSwisher
. The Administration’s lawyers seem to be walking it into a constitutional crisis. A thread.
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I passed the bar! I now look forward to a lifetime (hopefully less) of trying to abolish it. cc and big props to
@dp4dc
.
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Friday SPR thread: really exciting to see
@ENERGY
successfully acquire 2.7m barrels of crude for delivery in January, and announce a new solicitation for Feb for another 3m barrels. 1/
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$73 per barrel is a great price for refill. Possible they basically got market price + a small premium for delivery to Big Hill, a $22/barrel return for the Federal government! Kudos to
@ENERGY
and
@POTUS
for achieving something transformative here.
*DOE: 3M BARRELS OF OIL TO BE BOUGHT AT AVERAGE $73 PER BARREL
*DOE: SOLICITING PURCHASE OF ADDITIONAL 3M BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL
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Check out the new
@employamerica
research report from
@vebaccount
and me: Expanding the Capacity Frontier, An Approach to Increasing Energy Commodity Production
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Given that we’re going to need a lot of lithium to decarbonize, it would be great to prevent the entire market from bottoming out and hastening a plunge in investment…
Lithium prices are plunging around the world, according to Bloomberg, but especially in China, where it is trading at a 35% discount to world prices.
via
@markets
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Last year, poor countries like Pakistan got absolutely crushed because of LNG shortages.
Further LNG export capacity beyond what is already under construction & permitted (enough to more than TRIPLE current US export capacity by the way!) which is what Biden Admin is pausing to reconsider, would really going to Asia. No value statement. Let's just get facts straight.
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DOE just announced a March SPR contract! Inching closer to long-term. Would love to see a long-term context soon, Dec 2024 or into 2025. More here.
New from me and
@ash_georgexx
:
@ENERGY
should buy a LOT more oil. This week, DepSec Turk told
@AriNatter
that 3MM barrels per month is DOE's "physical limit." He said "we will buy back as much as we possibly can, but there are some physical constraints."
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42 had some thoughts
NEWS: Biden administration officials have quietly debated for months whether the Constitution compels the federal government to keep issuing debt to pay its bills, even if Congress fails to raise the debt limit before the X-date.
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1/ Great to see the Biden admin finalize a rule to allow fixed price contracts for SPR acquisition. Execution is critical, but this is an important shift. Admin is capitalizing on US ability to affect the market & using SPR to support price stability & long-term energy security.
Here it is folks -- the final rule issued by DOE. Will have more to say shortly, but this is the big part, DOE can now use fixed-price contracts for acquisition.
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Alex Turnbull and I suggested exactly this April of last year.
This is the craziest opportunity. Someone, please, let's buy a shit ton of spodumene concentrate and warehouse it in Perth or Minas Gerais for 2 years. We're gonna 4x our money.
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Not gonna lie - I love credit for things
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Thread (1/n): Tomorrow, the federal unemployment insurance programs established in the CARES Act will expire. It’s hard to understate how transformative these programs have been.
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THREAD: (1/n)
@SenatorBennet
just released the Food for Families in Crisis Act of 2020, a great new proposal to improve SNAP as an automatic stabilizer, and to modernize the program permanently by expanding eligibility.
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@DKThomp
This is my newest big pet peeve. Also I can’t find Google Maps anymore because it’s so unintuitive compared to the last icon, which was... a map.
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This is just excellent legislating. Taking the right lessons from the New Deal!
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Thread 1/ New piece from
@vebaccount
and me on the budgetary treatment of equity investments. The upshot: Right now, the budget rules require that equity be treated as if it's a grant with no market value and no prospect of market returns.
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New research report out from
@PrestonMui
,
@ash_georgexx
, and me.
Beyond Monetary Policy: Site-Neutral Medicare Payments Can Help Secure a Soft Landing
We found that site neutral payments in Medicare could reduce core PCE by 15-32 basis pts.
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Tight labor markets FTW
In 1983, Black Americans were unemployed at a rate 12 percentage points higher than whites. Today, that gap is just 2.6 percentage points.
@Morning_Joe
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Fantastic
@crampell
on why we need automatic stabilizers, "We need to minimize the number of desperate American families either party might take hostage. Especially when at least one party appears more than willing to actually destroy those hostages."
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This was a great event, congrats to
@heatmap_news
.
Best energy publication going.
I don't know what makes this image more DC...
Seeing
@robinsonmeyer
&
@JigarShahDC
hash it out on a random Thursday evening.
Or the fact that this is taking place in the middle of
@chaiatacos
🌮
Happy 1st Anniversary to
@heatmap_news
... can't believe it's only been a year!🍾
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A lot of people were skeptical that the SPR could meaningfully affect prices (“a million barrels is a drop in the bucket!”) But prices move at the margins and luckily Biden admin didn’t listen to the skeptics.
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Wow,
@JerusalemDemsas
really killing the podcast circuit lately. Check out all her recent podcasts on EK Show, Macro Musings with
@DavidBeckworth
, and The Weeds. Unique reasons for each.
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Next in our series exploring lithium, w/
@vebaccount
and
@alexbhturnbull1
: to boost production & competition, secure the supply chain, and reduce price volatility, the USG should help establish a benchmark contract for lithium tied to a physical reserve.
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**NEWS**
@ENERGY
just announced an April forward contract for 3mm barrels of sour crude for the SPR.
Bids due in a week for Apr. delivery. Great to see a 3-month contract, would love to see a 9+ month contract. We provided a roadmap here:
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Thread (1/7):
@IndivarD
and I wrote a piece about extending UI. We are reckoning with structural racism and how our policy choices harm communities of color. To advance racial justice, we must
#ExtendUI
and
#Savethe600
. A few points worth highlighting:
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(2/n): The Industrial Finance Corporation Act follows the best tradition of government corporations like the Reconstruction Finance Corporation or the TVA, by working with private actors to marshal resources to achieve big, public goals.
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This is very exciting. If you’re interested in learning more about next-gen geothermal, check out the joint series Hot Rocks from
@IFP
and
@employamerica
.
1/We
@fervoenergy
are excited to announce our new geothermal drilling results. We have achieved a 70% YoY reduction in drilling times, dramatically outpacing predictions, and are poised to unleash a new wave of geothermal decades ahead of schedule. THREAD.
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This is a huge success that we shouldn’t take for granted.
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Very lucky to work with a great team at EA and also folks like
@alexbhturnbull
to work on interesting, important challenges.
Can confirm what a profound impact these two have had. Even more excited to see them now extending these same instincts to clean energy supply chain needs. Bravo & thanks
@IrvingSwisher
@ArnabDatta321
@employamerica
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A point we made in our
@IFP
&
@employamerica
series last year. Congress should authorize and appropriate money for OCED to support next-gen geothermal.
Government funding in the US for competing technologies is 50-100X what it is for geothermal. The situation has gotten even more imbalanced since this chart came out in March. This is a major barrier to deployment as we compete for investors and customers with these technologies.
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🧵(1/): The House version of USICA dropped this week, the COMPETES Act. It could go to the full floor for a vote as early as this week. It's a behemoth, but I want to amplify a key section that’s really good, the Subtitle on Supply Chain Resilience.
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Cc:
@ENERGY
Me rooting for oil to be neither too hot (bad for consumers) nor too cold (throw future production into doubt), but stay in a nice predictable range of $70-75/barrel:
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Great piece from
@robinsonmeyer
. Oil prices hit the President’s repurchase range this week again, without a peep from
@energy
. It’s not time for lame excuses, it’s time for action.
"This might sound like heresy from a climate-change reporter, but here goes: President Joe Biden should start buying oil soon. A lot of it."
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1/ New piece- With SVB market fallout, oil prices are within the President’s refill range. Markets act fast. By limiting costs and using existing market infrastructure, DOE can act just as fast to stabilize oil markets in the event of a sustained dip.
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@mattyglesias
Been a while since I read about it but I always thought the Texas 10% rule was a good one
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Since the US is the world’s leading oil producer, available storage space in the SPR is possibly as valuable an asset as actual oil in storage— at least for managing price volatility.
SPR still has 400m bbls, which is a lot. More importantly, the US is going to be refilling it to stabilize prices, correcting for downward pressure the same way it corrected for upward pressure this Summer.
Price bulls don't like it, but the US govt is now a market actor.
#OOTT
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Ultimately, reduced supply means higher prices in the future, translated into higher EV prices and decelerated decarbonization.
If we want an abundant supply of lithium for EVs, we need better tools to limit downside risk for producers. cc:
@jennifermharris
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GOP star witness, Les Neilly, on the staggering work disincentive provided by added UI benefits, "I was very happy that no one refused to come back and everyone was in agreement and said 'fine, we'll see you tomorrow.' It was a relief that I didn't have any pushback from them."
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(4/n): On May 15, 2020, the House passed the HEROES Act, its coronavirus aid package, which extended enhanced UI benefits into next year.
@SenateDems
released a package that would extend the benefits until the economy recovers.
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Under current budget rules, equity investments are "scored" as grants as if there is no market value and no prospect for return.
Unfortunately, that makes it much harder for agencies to deploy that "patient capital" as
@vebaccount
and I wrote about.
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Yep
The detailed FTX bankruptcy filings are just… go and read them, cover to cover. There are so many highlights but my personal favourite is the bit where JJR points at that one of FTX silos was audited by a firm headquartered in the metaverse
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1/ New piece up w/
@alexbhturnbull1
on
@employamerica
, the next in our series about how a critical minerals club might execute a lithium reserve. As important as deciding what to store (spodumene), is deciding where to store it. This was a fun one.
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(6/n): During a global pandemic, he confirmed two circuit court judges who are committed to overturning the Affordable Care Act, Justin Walker, his family friendand Cory Wilson.
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My own labor market anecdote: was traveling this past week and ate at a few restaurants. Two young servers said they returned even though they were making more on UI. The reason? “got vaccinated and felt safe to come back.”
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My headline: Dumb fascist (see Jan. 6) proposes Dumb idea (see wealth of research on work reqs)
Inbox: Sen.
@HawleyMO
introduces plan for fully-refundable "Parent Tax Credit:"
- $6k for single-parents/$12k for married couples
- Tied to work; no income cap but families must report earnings of $7,540
- Delivered through monthly payments via IRS
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3/n:
@dylanmatt
says it “answers an important need…legislation that expands UI even when Congress is too busy arguing to do so. If Bennet’s bill had been passed... we arguably wouldn’t have needed an emergency intervention by Congress in response.” .
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