Mike Konczal
@mtkonczal
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Personal account. Former Special Assistant and Chief Economist, National Economic Council. Liberal. #Rstats. Dad. Chicago guy.
DC/MD
Joined June 2009
After asking Powell why the Fed has so consistently gotten the natural rate of unemployment wrong in the same direction, @AOC follows-up by discussing the breakdown of the Phillips Curve, and the idea that unemployment could be much lower without inflationary worries.
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The initial August jobs number of 235K started a wave of economic panic in the press. It was actually 483K, nearly half a million jobs (!). September's 194K, which signaled malaise, is revised to 312K. Revisions are big in 2021, averaging 99K/month; press hasn't managed it well.
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A 5 percent cap and:. "proposed rule would fully cover the borrower’s unpaid monthly interest, so that—unlike with current [IDR] —a borrower’s loan balance will not grow so long as they are making their [. ] payments.". A more just, humane, policy.
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Me, before: "wealth taxes are simple, practical, and necessary for democracy and to check plutocracy.". Me, now: "as the father of a daughter, wealth taxes are simple, practical, and necessary for democracy and to check plutocracy.". Welcome baby Vivian.
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Good time to revisit this question from @RashidaTlaib to Powell: if the Federal Reserve can provide emergency liquidity to the financial sector in a crisis, why can't they do the same for public entities like cities and states in the same crisis?
Interesting back and forth where @RashidaTlaib asks Powell that if the Fed can backstop the financial sector in a credit crisis and recession, why can't it do the same for public entities like states, cities and municipalities when they are in crisis?
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Well that's about the best inflation print ever. Core PCE has a monthly value below 2 percent annualized (the Fed's target) for the first time since the lockdowns. But under the hood it's even better - it's all in the right directions. Let's dive in. /1
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Here's @AOC in 2019 pushing Powell on whether relationship b/w inflation and unemployment was falling apart. Powell agrees, saying they've "learned that the economy can sustain much lower unemployment than we thought without troubling levels of inflation."
After asking Powell why the Fed has so consistently gotten the natural rate of unemployment wrong in the same direction, @AOC follows-up by discussing the breakdown of the Phillips Curve, and the idea that unemployment could be much lower without inflationary worries.
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I still find that people don't actually believe college was free for most of our history. Here's a 1951 UCLA catalogue casually says tuition is free; fees are $400 in today's dollars. Watch out for that out of state tuition, almost $2K in today's dollars!
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Wow. And there you have it. Six-month core PCE is at 1.87 percent, under the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. I was cautiously optimistic about 2023 - I have some 'soft landing' blog posts from a year ago - but this disinflation is far beyond what I imagined. Let's dig in. /1
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Actual candidate Joe Biden, in the general campaign with “Build Back Better,” called for about $5 trillion in new spending, split between recovery from COVID and investments in care, manufacturing, and climate, partially paid by high-end taxes. Which is what he is doing.
Candidate Biden suggested he would be a moderate, transitional president. Nearly three months in, President Biden has blazed a different path, aiming to be a transformational president – using his narrow majority to ram through the biggest expansion of government since LBJ.
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Very here for @ewarren going industry by industry (this one for exploitative agribusiness) naming her enemies, giving actual solutions grounded in a real transfer of power away from corporations, with a vision of labor and markets that work for people.
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That the occupation of the Capitol was far more violent, and had the capacity for far more violence, than I understood while it was happening is the most jarring thing I’ve learned about the putsch over the subsequent days. It’s terrifying.
We just did a long segment on this, which we’ll post but I truly think it is under appreciated how very close things came on Wednesday to a massacre.
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That the Democrats don't control either the Senate or the White House but have to act as the governing party, as the GOP doesn't want a federal response to the crisis, is so important to understanding the response dynamics. It makes normal hardball stuff much more complicated.
“Republicans believe the government is incompetent and then get elected and prove it,” says Sen. @BrianSchatz. “They don’t want the federal government to work and we do. That’s what’s going on here, and I don’t have a quick, facile solution to it."
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It's crazy when David Brooks and others describe free college as if it is some weird, foreign import, as opposed to the lived norm of American life from the founding till the 1970s. Here's the Indiana state constitution from 1816, which has free college!
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Wordle 226 4/6. ⬛🟨⬛⬛⬛.⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩.⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛.🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩. Leadership means making the hard calls, like forgoing the 25% chance of a third guess win, to instead ruthlessly weed out the potential remaining letters to guarantee the guess four win.
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Forget the zero headline; core inflation takes a dive last month, coming in at an annualized 3%, driven by a decrease in services. Compare it to the ~5% average it's been at since October 2021. One month doesn't make a trend, but the most encouraging print I could have imagined.
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Will never get sick of this image: Real GDP versus CBO's projection from before Covid. No scarring on this recovery.
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It's worth watching from earlier: @AOC listing off the Fed's estimates of the long-run unemployment rate over the past five years, noting that unemployment is below all of them without any rise in inflation, and Powell agreeing that they got it wrong. More of this from the Dems.
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Here is today's Real GDP number against the CBO prepandemic projections from January 2020. I still believe this recovery to trend is a remarkable achievement that is worth defending.
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Interesting back and forth where @RashidaTlaib asks Powell that if the Fed can backstop the financial sector in a credit crisis and recession, why can't it do the same for public entities like states, cities and municipalities when they are in crisis?
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@sewcialism @melissagira "The good Dale is in the Lodge and he can't leave. The bad Dale is out here and endorsing Bloomberg. Write it in your diary.”
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I’m available to send the following daily to any interested lawmakers. This could be us.
Every morning around 830a, Manchin gets a text from a staffer on what the national debt is (photo below). Dems have discussed putting a chunk of revenues/savings to deficit reduction as an enticement. I asked him about that. “That’s music to my ears.”.
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@jyarow Here's Warren in 2009, being ridiculed on Planet Money for saying underwater mortgages and foreclosure wave was a serious macroeconomic crisis; Not just a matter of bailing out Wall Street. She was absolutely right, as "deleveraging" was shown to be a serious recession driver.
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When you bring down unemployment and core inflation in the same month
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This is why I think conservatives messaging against socialism is going to be hard, and maybe even a disaster. Here's Rubio laying out the case against socialism by discussing "free health care" and "free education." Those are winning, popular issues! /1
Democratic Socialism sounds benign. It’s not. It’s built on Marxism.
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A thing on Warren's proposals coverage misses: it's less about lists of good, thought-out ideas (which they are) but more an intellectual overhaul that comes once you realize how broken the current economy is. It's like putting on new glasses, and seeing everything differently.
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For the last 7+ months I’ve been saying that the Left should claim, highlight, and center the fight over extending the massive expansion of UI, not just as an important program but as a model for reinvigorating Social Security. My read is that this didn’t happen. Why is that?.
Unemployment insurance expansion was a big victory for progressive priorities: social insurance, fighting labor fissuring, empowering workers, especially low-wage ones. It's also helping to fight a depression. Why isn't the Left rallying on its extension?
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If you were confused why people dug in so hard on free college debates, even if it seemed like the stakes were so low, it's because this targeted vs. universalism really is a giant chasm within the left-liberal space. Shows up all the time, including now.
As Congress considers the next steps, the Speaker believes we should look at refundable tax credits, expanded UI & direct payments—but MUST be targeted.
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This shows a level of disdain for what the actual liberal infrastructure has been thinking, building, and arguing. It's not "fashion." The deficit isn't a priority while rates remain low, lower than growth, and we desperately need decarbonizing investment.
Pete Buttigieg says Democrats should focus on cutting the deficit, which fell under Obama and is soaring under Trump. “The time has come for my party to get a lot more comfortable owning this issue. It’s not fashionable in progressive circles to talk too much about the debt.”.
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I don't think the commentary class is mentally ready for the amount of additional spending and deficits we'll need over the next several years. $5 trillion in new spending is both a necessary and responsible initial, early start. For COVID, recovery, care, climate, and more.
"For now, and for at least the next few years, large-scale deficit spending isn’t just OK, it’s the only responsible thing to do," writes @PaulKrugman
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You: neoliberalism doesn't exist, you dolt. Today: Paulo Guedes, the Minister of Economy under Bolsonaro, will be introduced by Niall Ferguson at a special Mont Perlerin Society meeting. Peter Thiel gives closing remarks Friday. (h/t @zeithistoriker) .
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I like how there isn't even a pretense of "if elected, we will pass the XYZ Act, which would unleash this and reform that and do another thing" now, policies to pitch and sell to voters. Literally "we will run our agenda from the judiciary here on out."
Sen. Lindsey Graham: "1 in 4 judges in America are Trump appointees. Can you imagine 4 more years of being able to appoint conservative judges?"
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Yeah I’m a bit of a “watch guy.” Like I’ll drop $6 to $8 grand on a watch every 4 months. That but replace “watch” with “child care.”.
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Someone just pointed me to this Warren poster from her Presidential campaign. Noteworthy to me because it references my favorite political poster of all time, this one from FDR's 1940 campaign.
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That neoliberalism has cornered owning growth, innovation, dynamism and competition in the popular imagination. while ruling an era of slow growth, productivity stagnation, and massive profits combined with weak investment. is one of the all-time great political mystifications.
One thing about the early nordic social democrats is, while they were largely marxists, they were also obsessed with improving the productive capacity of capitalism. You need a good economic base to build socialism on.
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One of the smartest and most prescient things I've read about current higher education was written in 1974, by the great education editor Fred Hechinger, who predicted splitting aid by income would create a "class war over tuition." Relevant for today. /1.
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Student loans as a replacement for public funding of higher ed (the norm for centuries) is a recent experiment, and it failed. There's a shadow game where experts know this; they just privately say we'll cancel it after 25 years. Yet life-cycle carnage is happening as a result.
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These graphics still floor me. Medicare administrators required absolute desegregation of hospitals, no "full deliberate speed" stuff, complete with exams informed by local civil rights groups, to get any Medicare dollars. Black infant mortality collapsed.
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6-month core PCE: 1.86%.3-month core PCE: 1.52%. A year ago these numbers were above 4 percent. I understand the yawns and the sense it's old news, but this is just a massive and wild achievement. Let's dig in and discuss the last mile and what just happened. /1
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I'm honored to join the National Economic Council and get to work with this great team. And I'm excited to help continue building this strong, broad-based, dynamic economic recovery.
New: Biden is making a pair of appointments to his economic team. Navtej Dhillon will become a deputy director of the National Economic Council, after serving as NEC chief of staff, and @mtkonczal is joining the administration as a macroeconomic adviser.
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@caroljsroth Attend a public college before the 1970s, when it was tuition free by design, for centuries in fact.
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Dobbs and the criminalization of reproductive choice isn’t just going to change the dynamics for women voters.
New Fox poll shows men moved +2D since May. But Dads moved +28. May August DIFF.Men +13R +11R +2D.Dads +20R +8D +28D. Dads, what changed? Inquiring moms want to know. 👊.
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In celebrating today's labor force participation rate, remember that it's not just beating the pre-American Rescue Plan estimate, it's beating the estimate that the Congressional Budget Office assumed we'd have *without covid happening.*. That's how strong this recovery is.
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We love to see it - real GDP comes in at 3.3%, so it is still clocking in above CBO's January 2020, pre-pandemic, projections.
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There it is: core inflation right at 2017-2019 levels. This is preloaded - and look, it's right there!. This is after ~9 months of it being stuck around 5 percent. More, when we look under the hood, there's reasons to believe this may continue. Let's dive in. /1
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Pretty great outcome. All people who understand how important executing the recovery and getting to full employment will be. They’ll also have strong antibodies against cynical debt hysteria and conservative boilerplate.
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No matter what happens with the book, I’ll be happy that I made this table of contents exist.
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If Biden wins tomorrow, we could be entering an Era of Large Numbers. Massive spending, giant deficits, a high debt-to-GDP ratio: all fantastic and necessary.
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It’s true, I was stumped.
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Broke: You can't just overhaul 18% of the economy overnight by legislating single-payer, too much uncertainty. Woke: Six random conservative operators are going to determine 18% of the economy in the next few hours, none of us have any clue what they'll legislate.
At 10 a.m., the Supreme Court will hear a case that could overturn the entire Affordable Care Act. You can listen to the oral arguments live here: .
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Early gift for the White House: an absolutely perfect PCE inflation print, with core at 2% (!) target. War is over, if you want it. Many, including myself, were worried about divergence with CPI; and PCE is what the Fed actually watches. But that didn't happen. Let's dig in. /1
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This graphic is the key point. If you strip out autos and pandemic-affected services, rest of the economy actually had a deceleration of inflation, continued from May. The scary, non-transitory stories about inflation need "other" to accelerate; instead, once again, it is lower.
Without cars and pandemic-affected services, core inflation rose 0.22 percent month-over-month, relative to 0.28 percent in May and 0.31 percent in April 4/
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I know everyone has done their Summers's graph take, but Krugman's point here really stands out if you redo the Summers graph with unemployment as the x-axis. The 1973-1976 episode he compares now to goes straight to the right; ours loops straight to the left. It's pretty wild.
Mid-70s disinflation was achieved via a huge rise in unemployment; reasons to wonder what would happen as U came down again 2/
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Rest in peace Nancy Konczal, my mom, a beloved parent and grandmother. She passed away last week and was laid to rest this week; she'll be remembered by her loving children and grandchildren as an adventurer and caring friend.
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If you want to get a sense of what the fight looked like in real-time in 2018, against the deregulation bill (2155) people are linking to SVB,. Here I was in the Times, making what was the overall case against it. Rereading it today, yup.
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Friendly reminder that on the few times that the filibuster has blocked the GOP agenda since 2017 they have immediately removed that part of it. (it was never blocking any of their multiple attempts to repeal the ACA.)
NUCLEAR OPTION TRIGGERED: Senate votes 51-48 to change the rules and cut debate time for certain nominations from 30 hours to 2 hours. The move was led by Mitch McConnell; all Republicans except Susan Collins and Mike Lee voted to nuke the rules. Kamala Harris was absent.
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For more on how economists are taking a serious, critical reexamination of the Phillips Curve and the idea of NAIRU, see this:
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I get the narrative of the jobs numbers has to be determined within 5 minutes of 8:30am. But imagine in August the press didn't use a 235K number to whip out their Jimmy Carter thesaurus. and instead correctly said "even under Delta, Biden's economy added half a million jobs.".
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This strikes me as the biggest norm-breaking threat to democracy, being carried out by the everyday, state-level foot soldiers of the conservative movement.
Wisconsin insanity. GOP plans to use its final weeks in full power to: slash early voting, shrink powers of Attorney General (Dem ousted GOP incumbent), change election calendar to boost its chances of winning a Supreme Court seat, & more. The NC template.
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Monthly job growth has averaged 561,000 jobs a month in 2021. It's 612,000 a month since March. The average for June-July was 1.026 million jobs a month. Big upside revisions, never really covered, are part of why you aren't aware of this, but also because it's off narrative.
LET'S TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMIC BOOM. People are talking these days like we did some huge MMT experiment and now we're stuck in a stagflationary quagmire. In today's @markets newsletter I wrote about how that's nonsense. For one thing, we're seeing a boom.
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No matter what happens with the Mueller report, the Dems spent the last two years doing what they needed: taking back the House with a wave election, started building the next generation of leaders, worked on motivating their coalition, and debated their agenda for a new era.
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Just traveled to NYC for my first in-person meeting in a year and a half. I’m going to say “this is like a zoom meeting but in person ha ha ha”. I have a lot riding on this line. Any suggestions on how to punch it up and deliver it better are appreciated.
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There was an excellent 2016 @DanaGoldstein piece on De Blasio's pre-K program which consciously benefitted everyone, even the 1%. 2 things stood out: (1) universality made it successful and (2) policy gatekeepers *hated* it because it benefitted everyone.
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Given how this debate is professionals talking among themselves, it's not well appreciated how ~40% of people with student loans don't have college degrees. A subset of debtors we've consigned to the worst of both worlds through our questionable educational financing choices. /4.
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Given the way every other country with universal health care actually works, from the UK to Sweden still having private insurance, the "single payer means the abolition of all private insurance" line has taken single-payer conversation down a wrong turn.
a majority of *liberals* do not want to see private insurance done away with, even if 90 percent of them want to create a national insurance program for all Americans
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Rubio et al wanted the credit for going Denmark, but they wanted to do it on the cheap and small, and they wanted the deservingness optics of just helping small business. They've ended up with the worst of every possible world instead. It was all predictable and was predicted.
The outrage shouldn't be directed at the companies -- Congress was very clear the PPP *was* meant for larger restaurant and hotel chains too. It should be directed at Congress for making the program too small given this policy choice.
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Very encouraging dynamic. Democrats are using feedback on best implementation practices to push better and further than what they had been envisioning in the past. They are also getting how big the moment is, this is precisely what we need post-pandemic.
NEWS: Senior Dems drafting plan to directly send $3K per kid (& $3,600/young kid) to millions. Aides say effort to look more like direct checks -- aiming for direct monthly deposit of $300 -- than traditional tax credit offsetting liability. Details -->.
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@JStein_WaPo As in he's arguing that the UI is causing the unemployment that is making the economy weak?.
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David Graeber's Debt was just an amazing book, big ideas across history, insights from economic anthropology that were mind-blowing for those like me who had not encountered them before. For economics-minded readers, here's a great overview by @JWMason1:
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@FrankLuntz It fails on virtually everything that needs to be done. It's not just the bailouts, as gross as those are. It's not up to the moment.
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Wild how the parliamentarian and the reconciliation process will let through things like Arctic drilling (2017) or the fever swamps “Restoring Americans' Healthcare Freedom Act” (the ACA-repeal-and-delay bill vetoed by Obama in 2016). but not things that help everyday workers.
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This is an excellent dive by @jleibenluft into how stronger European labor laws made it easier to manage the pandemic and better structure their economic response. It's a really key cross-country comparison point that gets overlooked. (1/2)
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This is a leading intellectuals in the conservative movement. Rather than argue for, say, a carbon tax, his climate change agenda is that more babies means more engineers and innovators to solve it in the future. We're doomed trying to meet this halfway.
The solution to climate change is not this unserious resolution, but the serious business of human flourishing – the solution to so many of our problems, at all times and in all places: fall in love, get married, and have some kids.
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Fantastic. Couldn't ask for more. Rohit redefined debate about student loans through serious enforcement against predatory for-profit colleges last time he was at the CFPB; excited to see what he does in charge. Now let's make sure to have a pro-enforcement replacement at FTC.
🚨 Joe Biden is tapping FTC Commissioner Rohit Chopra, an ally of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, to head his Consumer Financial Protection Bureau . Breaking via @politico
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A child allowance can be online immediately, paying monthly soon after. A public option is ~1 year to get setup. Shovel-ready green investment jobs can move quickly. All can pass immediately in 2021 through party-line reconciliation, show results, and be on the ballot in 2022.
Sen. Toomey 2022 retirement announcement is a reminder that Dems should not/must not assume 2022 will inevitably be a backlash year, like 1994 or 2010. Don't just burn capital, strategize to gain Senate seats--PA, IA, WI, FL, NC, OH. All states in play, and seats Rs won in 2106.
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Warren is right, you won't touch wealth through income taxes, and this is even more true post-Trump taxes. Check out how little the very rich make from salaries, from Batchelder and Kamin.
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Big ideological evolution to talk about the era of the last 40 years as one of slow growth, excessive profits, massive concentration, weak investments and innovation. Rather than just "wild and booming but sometimes unfair and unequal" - the way Democrats used to normally do it.
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The difference between the 1% and the professional class is whether you disassociate yourself into an LLC to get the full Trump tax cuts or whether you disassociate your family into shell families in order to get free college.
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Brutal. One of the more telling data pieces I've seen, and also helps explain why we simply can't freeze work in place with our levels of poverty and lack of worker voice or security. Staying at Home During Coronavirus Is a Luxury.
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I know they upheld individual mandate, but it’s still infuriating Roberts made up a principle that tying federal funding to state action is coercion in order to weaken Medicaid expansion. Have you heard of this principle since? Say, Trump cutting funds to “anarchist” cities? No.
Not only that! In Shelby County, Justice Roberts straight up invents a constitutional principle out of thin air that says you have to treat all the states the same so that he cangut the Voting Rights Act.
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Not only is the job number fantastic for our "are we in a recession?" moment, it's great for basically any month period. To put how good 372,000 new jobs are in context, it's higher (as a percent of employment) than 79 percent of monthly job numbers since 1980. (1/2)
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A reminder, we can just send checks to everyone. George W. Bush did it, *twice.*. In 2001 the IRS did an advance payments of a tax credit in the form of a mailed-out check. They sent out another check in 2008 for the Great Recession.
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In addition to cutting child poverty in half. Support already built among Senate Dems, passable immediately through reconciliation, implementable *that year*, and Democrats can run on continuing it in 2022, noting that the GOP would throw children and families into insecurity.
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@JDVance1 Ok but is it liberating for mothers to work 90 hours a week in fast-food and other low-wage industries in order to receive the full value of a child allowance/child tax credit?.
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New research brief: I look at 123 PCE inflation categories, their respective changes in price and quantities, to figure out what is driving the disinflation we've seen in 2023. And the answer is pretty clear: 73 percent of it is from expanding supply. /1
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@TomPhilipson45 A whole lifetime of work, and this will be what you are remembered for. There are professionals working in the executive branch trying to push back on the worst instincts of this administration who deserve our respect; and then there's you, now, here, when it mattered.
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The 6-month core PCE change is now very well below the value when President Biden took office, even over half a percentage point lower. Because inflation was already on the rise in January 2021, as the economy started reopening from the global shock. /5
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Inflation thread: we've had single good months in the past year, hopes that were quickly dashed with reversion. But now we have two in a row, the first since summer/fall 2021. But as opposed to then, the underlying trends are all pointing in the right direction. Let's dig in. /1
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Oh why not. Quick, short post, only 1.4% of the spending on free public higher education would go to the children of millionaires and billionaires. 98.6% would go to everyone else.
Instead of providing free college tuition for the children of millionaires and billionaires, I will open doors of opportunity for Americans who choose not to go to college with massive investments in apprenticeships, workforce training, and lifelong learning programs.
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The simply asymmetry of the Senate filibuster: it takes 60 votes to build something, but only 50 to tear it down. The filibuster no longer binds the core conservative agenda in any way; it blocks and deforms everything the left needs to do. My latest:
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Great thread. If today is the day to air grievances, I'll add the media/left portrayal of the #resistance as TV-glued hysterics, rather than a political movement lead by middle-aged women that built a bottom-up House majority out of hard work, was an across-the-board failure. /1.
For the first 3 or so years of Trump's term there was certain mode of analysis fairly common among self-styled savvy centrists, #Resistance averse leftists, and tons of conservatives that basically held that everyone freaking out about Trump was being overwrought and hysterical.
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One of the first GOP slogans was "Vote Yourself a Farm." Their initial agenda was successfully giving away free land in the Homestead Act and creating free public colleges across the country.
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A great number. Pay particular attention to the 6-month trend, which Powell had emphasized was stuck throughout 2022. At the beginning of this year, the 6-month core CPI reading was 5.3 percent; it's now 3.2 percent, even as the economy added 1.9 million jobs. Let's dig in. /1
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The American Rescue Plan has $30 billion in federal transit funding. Rather than self-perpetuating cycles of austerity, the ARP solidifies balance sheets across the nation. And not just for families; transit, states, schools, pensions, and more of our necessary institutions. 1/3.
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I don't think it's appreciated how low interest rates are, and how cheap it is for the government to borrow to solve pressing issues like a pandemic and global warming. Even I'm still shocked when I see it in an imagine like this. Rates are very low!
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“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit:. There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”. —Frank Wilhoit.
Only days into his diagnosis, the first thing President Trump does when he gets back to the White House is take his mask off.
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For the book, I wanted to read a bunch of primary sources around race and the New Deal, especially why black voters moved so decisively to the Democrats in 1936. With the help of the excellent @FDRLibrary staff, here's some neat stuff I found to share. (1/9).
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