It's a bad number. Just 22,000 jobs, and with revisions June went negative to -13,000. Worse, deeper into the data you can see that the theory of Trumponomics is failing. It's not too late to change course, but it would require dramatic action they won't take. Let's dig in. /1

Miran saying we need both 5 cuts AND (probably) saying the economy is going to be grow above 2% for the next 3 years. Lol, lmao even.

Our chips are fried in BEEF TALLOW! Made with just Potatoes, Tallow, and Salt From the farm, not the factory. 🐮

Note that low outlier 2.9% rate at the end of 2025 (likely from Miran) is rate associated with the Fed's neutral rate (see the green box). It's the estimate you'd give in if you think inflation is or will be fully at target. (Or that unemployment will be higher, like ~5%.)

Here's @econJaredB on that budget update under Trump.

As CEA director, Miran likely signed off on Trump's recent comical budget claim that GDP will be 3%+ in 2026-2027 and longer-term 2.9%. This is far outside ~1.8-2% consensus from Blue Chip, CBO, and, notably, FOMC. Will he make one big outlier datum in FOMC projections tomorrow?

It’s time to take back our city—and our country—from bullies inside and outside the government. I'm running for Congress to take on corporate greed and stand up for working people in IL-07 and across the country. Together, we can fight back against concentrated power, and win.

My book UNBEARABLE: Five Women and the Perils of Pregnancy in America comes out on October 28. It builds on my years of reporting on reproduction to weave together history, politics, and the staggering stories of five women.

Now we know who will be at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

Some Senate Republicans said they were not concerned about how independent Miran would be after speaking with him. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis said that he was not convinced that Miran would be independent — but that he didn’t see it as a problem because Miran’s term would

Checking in on reels

The president has pretty clearly realized how much he screwed up here.

The explicit MAGA argument, developed from American Compass to Project 2025, is that farmers will be capable of simply automating all this labor once working immigrants leave, maybe with a nudge from the government. It's a pure "assume a can opener" with no sense of trade-offs.

"short-termism" debates circa 2014-2016 + monkey paw.

Any common sense look at the data suggests there is consumer price pressures across a range of different categories that are impacted by the tariffs, and that's with only a portion of the current tariff impact flowing through. h/t @mtkonczal

The mortgage fraud claim against Lisa Cook is false, per documents obtained by Reuters. Bill Pulte's accusation, the sole pretext Trump used to fire her from the Fed, was that she claimed two homes as primary residence. These docs show she did not.

Consumer sentiment is currently just a pinch lower than the worst of the financial crisis, in a range associated with June and July of 2022, when inflation was at 8%.

It's probably not great for us as a country that our predominant information ecosystems are built to incentivize lying and incitement

Utah Governor Spencer Cox: Social media is a cancer right now. I would encourage you all to log off, be with your family, and touch grass.

Kudlow worked under Paul Volcker at the New York Fed in the 1970s. He was an associate director at OMB under Reagan and has had a lot of financial markets experience. I find what he's saying about the Fed recently frankly shocking.

The increase in goods prices is very clear in the data, here are several categories that people had been tracking as likely tariff targets. Good question of where this levels, and how much it has a downward trend again. But in PCE, core goods is adding ~0.5% to target inflation.

And let the hot takes begin! Real wages are flat since May, once Liberation Day really got started. Average hourly earnings divided by overall CPI have not grown since May. People aren't making it up, and it's not surprising that consumer sentiment is at very bleak levels. 5/5