E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni
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Economist for @Heritage, @Comm4Prosperity, @VinceCoglianese, @Richzeoli, @dbongino, and @RichValdes I may be wrong but it’s highly unlikely; VAMO
Washington, DC
Joined January 2023
Never fails:.
JIM CRAMER: “I DON’T SEE HOW HE [DONALD TRUMP] WINS”. There it is.
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Trump is inheriting a Federal Reserve w/ not only unprecedented losses of $218 billion, but it's still losing money; the Fed won't send the Treasury a dime for the entirety of Trump's term; that's never happened since the inception of the Fed - another challenge for Trump.
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This isn't a meme stock, some third world country's currency, or the balance sheet of a failed regional bank - it's the losses at the Fed, and it just exceeded $130 billion:
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Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment has increased 1.3 million; we're just swapping out American workers at this point, not growing the pie for everyone.
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🚨The massive downward revisions to jobs data are set to continue: latest from PHL Fed has early benchmark indicating jobs DECLINED in Q2 of this year while the initial monthly job reports estimated gains of 653k - the labor market's strength is a fiction.
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If a private banker lost $207 billion, they'd be in jail. When a central banker loses $207 billion, it's just a Wednesday.
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History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes. Trump is being handed a ticking time bomb.
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55 cents out of every dollar the federal gov't spent in Aug was borrowed. we're in trouble.
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Dec jobs report 🧵: there's SO much bad news under the hood of this report, including the economy shedding 1.5 million full-time jobs in a single month, big downward revisions, and a true unemployment rate between 6.4% and 7.5% - here's the truth you should know.
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"Job growth was overestimated by more than 770,000 last year. Put differently, about one in every four jobs that was supposedly added last year never existed. That’s like completely eliminating all of the jobs gained in three whole months of 2023. ".(Article linked in reply)
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🚨Federal debt explodes on 1st day of the new fiscal year, jumping $204 billion to new record of $35.669 trillion, but it gets worse: Treasury also had to draw down its cash balance by $72 billion - that's over $275 billion in the red FOR JUST ONE DAY:
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@RealCandaceO I wonder if there's also a BBC documentary about the hundreds of thousands of German civilians who starved to death after World War One because the British kept the naval blockade in place and refused to let in food, even after the armistice. .
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Latest Jobs Report looks good w/ headline numbers blowing away expectations, but the devil is in the details - here's a plain-English thread on why this is a very troubling report🧵.
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Employment level is more than 7 million below its pre-pandemic trend:
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The federal debt has fallen $77 billion over the last 2 days, but only b/c Treasury has simultaneously drained $104 billion from its cash account; sure seems like Yellen is trying to set up her replacement at Treasury for failure - a short 🧵
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It took 63% of all personal income taxes in Feb to pay the interest on the debt - no roads, no military, no schools, no social security - JUST INTEREST:
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Whenever there's turmoil in the Middle East, it's always comforting to know we have a sizeable Strategic Petroleum Reserve. *had.
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We're gonna need a bigger graph: Fed is now over $110 billion in the hole after suffering another week of losses in an unprecedented streak or red ink - the same people telling you the banking system is safe and sound found a way to lose money despite having a money printer:
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Has no one else noticed this from Q4 GDP report? Annualized interest on the federal debt now exceeds $1 trillion and is projected to breach $3 trillion, annualized rate, by Q4 2030 - INSANE and UNSUSTAINABLE:
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It's official: the Fed is now $150 billion in the hole; congrats Powell & Co. - it takes a special level of incompetence to have a money printer and still lose money.
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Don't forget that today's massive downward benchmark revision (2nd largest on record) is on top of the existing downward revision to the initial monthly jobs report figures - btwn all the revisions, job growth for the 12-month period was wildly overestimated almost 1.2 million:
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I'm starting to think all this "economic growth" is really just a debt bomb:
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Here's the CPI🧵 on today's dumpster fire of a report - hint: inflation isn't dead, you're $6,800 poorer b/c of it, and it's poised to get much worse next year.
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If you had losses like these at your job, you'd be fired. Fortunately, these aren't your losses - they're the Fed's.
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This isn't some random crypto coin, meme stock, junk bond, or 3rd world country's currency - it's the losses at the Fed. The people w/ a money printer somehow managed to lose money. Billions of dollars.
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For convenience, here's all the info on the Mar jobs report in a single thread - sorry to be the bearer of bad news, especially regarding American citizens losing so much ground in this economy.
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In the last year, native-born Americans have lost 823k jobs while foreign-born workers have gained 1.2 million jobs:
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Full-time jobs are DOWN 1.6 million over the last year and part-time jobs are up 1.8 million - the economy is hemorrhaging full-time employment, and all the net job growth is gig work.
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Americans have been completely left behind in this economy: foreign-born employment is not only several million above its pre-pandemic level but is even above its pre-pandemic trend, while native-born Americans have made no progress in 4 years - in fact, they've gone backwards:
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$16 billion doesn’t even pay for 6 days of interest on the $34 trillion federal debt….
The spending agreement CUTS $16 billion in Democrat spending priorities — the first nondefense spending cut in several years. This is a step in the right direction as House Republicans fight for conservative policy riders and reprioritizing funds.
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What is #Bidenomics? In a word, failure. Talking points aside, here's a thread of nothing but the facts on how the American people have been impacted.
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Jan jobs report🧵- here's what you need to know that the talking heads and gov't statisticians won't tell you, including why the real unemployment rate is btwn 6.3% and 7.4%.
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Holy $#!*. The quarterly census of employment and wages shows a DROP of 192k private sector jobs in Q3 last year after BLS said nonfarm payrolls rose 640k over that same time! Note that unlike the monthly job estimates, the quarterly census covers more than 95% of US jobs:
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“The Biden administration has basically turned the U.S. labor market into a Temp Agency for foreign workers. American workers aren’t getting jobs - they’re losing them…”
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This is the worst start to a fiscal year EVER:.- Spending is up 10.9%.- Receipts are down 2.2%.- FYTD deficit up 39.4% at $711 billion.They're handing Trump a ticking time bomb.
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Food has never been so expensive - about one quarter of renters had to skip meals in the last year to stay current on their bills; this is a cost-of-living crisis:
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The average weekly paycheck has never been larger, but it buys less than it did in Jan '21 - put simply, we've gone backwards:
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This isn't a meme stock, failed regional bank stock, or even some random $#!+ coin; it's the losses at the Fed, and it just passed $200 billion - the people w/ a money printer figured out how to lose money.
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In the last year, 651k native-born Americans have lost jobs, while 1.3 million foreign-born workers have gained jobs:
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Employment among foreign-born workers has increased 4.4 million since pre-pandemic (and is back on trend) while jobs among native-born Americans have fallen 833k over that same time - literally no progress in 5 years.
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Right on schedule: Powell & Co. have officially managed to lose a whopping $100 BILLION - and you're paying for it; difficult to overstate the level of incompetence needed to have a money printer and still lose money; next stop: $200 billion.
One more week - two tops - before Fed hits $100 billion in the hole; welcome to the new normal, and you're paying for it.
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So strange—what happened in 1913…?.
Shelter is a basic human need . Housing and land have always been valuable . Homes did not magically become “more” valuable . The dollar became less valuable. It’s crucial to understand the difference.
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Not only has the Biden admin racked up $8.4 trillion in debt, but they've also run down Treasury's cash balance by $1.0 trillion - that's a net overspending of $9.4 trillion, or more than 1/4 of the entire federal debt:
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Here's your "price gouging" narrative: average costs paid by businesses have risen just as much as costs charged to consumers - if businesses are being "greedy," they're doing it all wrong.
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Aug jobs report shows more pain for native-born Americans, who've lost more than 1.3 million jobs over the last year, while foreign-born workers have gained over 1.2 million jobs - the American worker has been left behind in this "recovery".
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This morning's revised data show the gov't is basically "buying" GDP w/ debt, but getting only 50 cents on the dollar - worst deal ever.
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🚨Uh oh. looks like job growth in Q4 '23 was wildly overestimated - business employment dynamics report shows a net employment gain of 344k private jobs while the monthly job reports from that time showed nonfarm payrolls jumping by 637k; so, almost half the jobs were fake?
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Household wealth increased substantially faster under Trump than the current admin, but the much bigger difference is the inflation-adjusted change:.27.9% vs. 3.2% - about 9 times faster, and in less time.
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It's amazing what removing 5 million people from the unemployment rate calculation can do - you're not unemployed, you're uncounted.
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What kinds of jobs were added? Entirely part-time (+151k); in fact, we LOST full-time jobs (-22k); last 3 months have seen part-time jump 1.2 million while full-time fell 700k (most since lockdowns); double counting of multiple jobholders (123k) was 37% of job gains.
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The federal budget is on a collision course with Archimedes: most of the spending is on autopilot and will continue to grow out of control, even if Congress cuts discretionary spending to the bone. And don't think we can inflate our way out of this by devaluing the dollar further
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In the last 24 hours, we learned that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve apparently can't be fired, despite having never been elected - power over all, accountable to none.
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Trump is inheriting a ticking time bomb - the new admin really has their work cut out for them, cleaning up this inflation mess:
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"The debt actually rose $6.5 trillion during Trump’s entire term—and is up $7.9 trillion in less than four years of Biden’s tenure. All told, Biden will likely oversee a net increase in the debt of more than $9 trillion in a single term—a new record. ".(Article linked in reply)
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All of the net job growth in Aug was part-time employment (+527k), while full-time jobs plummeted (-438k); we're hemorrhaging higher-paying jobs w/ benefits and replacing them with multiple part-time ones - these higher payroll numbers are a sign of impoverishment, not growth:
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62.5% of the personal income taxes you paid to the federal gov't last month were for interest on the debt -.No roads or bridges.No schools or hospitals.No military of Social Security.Just interest:
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@d0n77ru57 Only when you set your own accounting standards and have no one to regulate you can you call losses a "deferred asset" - Orwellian word games give a patina of stability and soundness, but nothing more. .
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More than half of last 12-months of job growth has come from gov't and the gov't-dominated healthcare sector; it's all tax-payer funded, and it's not at all sustainable:
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Here's a plain-English 🧵 on the Oct jobs report, that not only points to recession, but that something is seriously wrong w/ BLS' initial data, and it needs to be taken with a BIG grain of salt.
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Sep CPI comes in hot, as forecasted, w/ no sign inflation is going away; typical American family effectively $7,300 poorer compared to Jan '21🧵. CPI 3.7% Y/Y and 0.4% M/M
*I stand by my previous Sep CPI estimate of 0.4% M/M, 3.7% Y/Y, and 4.2% Core - Street's consensus estimate is lower, but we'll see who's right tomorrow at 8:30AM EDT. .
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How about we abolish every department/agency/bureau that can’t pass an audit?.
While X users have been rightly focused on the Pentagon’s 7th straight audit failure, the Department of Education proves YET AGAIN we spend too much money for too little learning. Time to clean house.
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“Our economy has grown 3.2% per year under the Biden Harris Administration—stronger than during the previous administration. Incomes are up almost $4,000, after adjusting for inflation.”.- Lael Brainard.Are you familiar with your own data, Ms. Brainard?
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Well color me shocked: growth in real hourly compensation for Q2 was revised down almost to zero. Yet again.
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About half of all personal federal income taxes are going just to interest on the debt; grab your most recent paystub and realize that half your income tax is not going to roads, bridges, the military, schools, hospitals, or Social Security - JUST INTEREST:.
We’ve now topped $1 trillion in federal interest payments - much more than we spend on the military 😳 - and the fiscal year isn’t even over yet…. Well over $8,000 per household just in interest each year!. This is the debt death spiral we’ve been warning about.
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Gov't accounted for a third of all job gains last month - completely unsustainable:
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TLDR: people supplementing incomes w/ part-time jobs are goosing the headline numbers while underlying economic fundamentals remain weak; people absent from workforce pushing down unemployment rate; earnings not keeping up with inflation; don't expect the job gains to last.
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Biden-Harris has added over $8 trillion to the federal debt in less than 4 years while also running down Treasury's cash by about $1 trillion over that period - fiscal malfeasance!
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43% of all dollars the gov't spent in July were borrowed - the Treasury is spending almost twice as much as it takes from us; we're driving toward the fiscal cliff, and Congress is clueless. or complicit.
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More than half the jobs added in the last year were either in gov't or paid for by tax dollars, like when the gov't gives a grant to a hospital, which then uses that money to hire a nurse - it's essentially an indirect hire by gov't:
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Who would do business or invest in NYC after what we just witnessed? What good are business contracts in a place that doesn't respect the rule of law? And how can you possibly trust a gov't that politicizes the justice system to repay its debts?
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Hot CPI numbers as expected - inflation accelerated again in Aug; here’s a plain-English, deep dive thread explaining the real-life impact of inflation 🧵.
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Native-born employment is not only way below pre-pandemic trend but also 1 million below pre-pandemic level, losing ground over the last 4 years; conversely, foreign-born employment has been back to pre-pandemic trend for months, and now 3.3 million above its pre-pandemic level:
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The number of people employed by the government rose by 438k in '24, an unsustainable rate of increase that has also artificially depressed the unemployment rate at taxpayer expense:
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When the news tells you that. "Inflation is slowing" or "inflation has come down". What they mean is "food prices have never been this high before".
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"Interest on the federal debt is now so immense that it’s consuming 40% of all personal income taxes. If federal finances continue on their current path, we are only a few years from the entirety of income taxes being needed to finance the debt. ".(Link in reply)
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Consumer prices have never been higher, but I'm also curious what changed in Jan '21. ?
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To date, the Biden admin has run up federal debt by $8.4 trillion while running down Treasury cash by $840 billion - that's a total of nearly $9.3 trillion in the red!. What a legacy.
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Pointed this out in the fourth quarter of last year and the trolls came out in force to “educate” me on my incomparable ignorance - I love having the last laugh….
BLS plans to revise down jobs by roughly a million. Hilarious that they’re just openly-- and massively -- changing the number like it’s no big whoop 🤡.
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Native-born Americans still have fewer jobs today than before the pandemic (-873k) while all net job growth has gone to foreign-born workers (+3.7 million); many Americans aren't happy w/ the economy b/c they're not the ones w/ the jobs.
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Gov't was the 2nd largest source of job growth over the last year, behind only healthcare, which is a gov't-dominated sector where many of the jobs are funded by taxpayer dollars - this direct and indirect gov't hiring accounts for about 60% of all job growth over the last year:
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Full-time jobs have now fallen 1.3 million since Jun '23 - welcome to the gig economy where you lose your full-time job w/ benefits and work 3 part-time jobs to try and make ends meet.
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This is absolutely insane: Powell & Co. are planning to FORCE all banks to utilize emergency credit so that the market can’t tell safe banks from distressed banks - great job highlighting this, @Fxhedgers; it’s scary stuff but worth a read:
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The economy has hemorrhaged a full 1 million jobs over the last year and only added part-time work, on net - how is this a sign of prosperity? No wonder people disapprove of the economy:
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This isn't the earnings chart of some failed regional bank. It's the Fed.
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Gen. Milley said it was cheaper to leave our weapons behind in Afghanistan. Who knew civilian lives were so cheap?.
Through pure lunacy and incompetence, Biden's Admin armed the Hamas butchers. When the left cries for more of your paycheck and more inflation taxes to fund more bureaucrats, this is what they want. It's time to end the DC Cartel before it ends us.
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More than half of all net job growth in '24 was either direct or indirect hiring by gov't, in other words, paid for w/ taxpayer dollars - this is completely unsustainable and points to a much weaker labor market than the headlines make it appear:
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Employment of native-born Americans is not only millions below its pre-pandemic trend, but is 208k below its pre-pandemic level, while foreign-born employment has risen 3.9 million over the last 5 years and back on its pre-pandemic trend; Americans have been left behind.
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The real minimum wage was, is, and always will be zero:.
$20 hour minimum wage and this is how McDonald's responds. No registers open. No menus turned on. Self serve ONLY. Thoughts on this? . 🚨🚨🚨
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And yes, there are different methodologies for these three estimates, but they usually track very closely; after '20, there have been significant divergences that still haven't been rectified, leading to the abnormally large and consistently downward revisions to jobs data.
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Economy shed 625k full-time jobs last month and only added part-time ones; does this look like a "strong and resilient" labor market to you?
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$628 million.Per day.That the Fed is printing.To control inflation.Yes, you read that right
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And there it is: report from BLS today confirms what the early data from the PHL Fed indicated: private sector saw a net DECLINE of almost 200k jobs in Q2; that means the initial estimates overstated job growth by over 800k for a single quarter.
🚨The massive downward revisions to jobs data are set to continue: latest from PHL Fed has early benchmark indicating jobs DECLINED in Q2 of this year while the initial monthly job reports estimated gains of 653k - the labor market's strength is a fiction.
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New month, same story: we're losing full-time jobs and only adding part-time work:
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$34.6 trillion in debt w/ annual interest costs over $1 trillion, no exit strategy, inflation not going away, weaponization of the dollar abroad, and they wonder why gold and bitcoin keep hitting record highs.
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Trump inheriting a mess: Fed has permanently broken loanable funds market and now must continue its extraordinary measures ad infinitum; when next crisis comes, they'll respond w/ new "innovations," and more costs to taxpayers; Fed interest payments currently ~$475 million/day.
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You may not think you're paying for this $36 trillion of federal debt, but you are - every time you pay more for gas, rent, groceries, insurance, whisky, utilities, or clothing, it's b/c the gov't spent too much and printed the money to pay for it all.
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Market is beginning to realize that these deficits are unsustainable and Biden admin has no plan to change course; no one wants to be holding the bomb when it goes off. Treasuries:.30-year: 5.102%.20-year: 5.334%.10-year: 4.988%.2-year: 5.171%.3-month: 5.487%
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Powell says he's not leaving but a Fed chair can be removed for cause - how's this for a reason: the Fed now has losses exceeding $210 billion. @DOGE needs to seriously reduce head count at the Fed, and Powell should be first to go:
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