Alex
@AnalysisOp
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M. Eng. ⚡ 〰️ Data & Analysis. Value investing. Undervalued and Special Situations. Jokes (some) are allowed 🦔 🧔🏻
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Inside a LNG storage tank 👀
It looks like a spaceship or something 😅 Imagine the tanks for ultra-pure methane (> 99.9% purity) 😱
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$TELL
"We [the FERC] will grant the requested three-year extension of time to complete construction of the Driftwood LNG Terminal and Driftwood Pipeline Project" 🔥🔥💪
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7
43
Guys, have you noticed that $TELL wants to COMPLETE ALL the five trains, the 27 MTPA of capacity, by year 2029? 🔥 The extension wasn't only for the first trains! 📈📈💪
Official statement from the company issued today (link in post below):
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#natgas
Current US 🇺🇸 LNG exporting projects with FERC authorization and DOA non-FTA exporting authorization (Operating/Under construction/Pending FID).
The rest of the projects..... will have to wait 🤷♀️
[Thx. Mr. Truth_Hunter for the chart]
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8
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Associated
#natgas
production from oil wells in the Permian basin [EIA data]
Interesting the huge increase due to higher GOR. Permian is getting gassier (no new news anyway, but the chart is very visual)
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10
31
As reminder,
@TellurianLNG
$TELL can x2 its exporting capacity thanks to its 2nd site 💪 Fully completed (Driftwood + Site II), could export up to 60 MTPA 🔥🔥
That's what I call long-term prospects 📈
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4
28
"In view of the recent Tokyo Gas and Chesapeake transactions, $TELL 's assets [upstream] may fetch in the range of $800 MM" - Mr. Brian Lidsky, Energy Advisors Group
If happens, that transaction would leave the company debt-free and even with a cash surplus 👀
Source ⬇️
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2
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$EQT is forecasting as base case a growth of 10 Bcf/d in
#natgas
demand by year 2030 (due
to the AI revolution); last data was more modest: between 5 - 7 Bcf/d 🔥🔥
BUT a PLAUSIBLE more aggressive scenario is projecting 18 Bcf/d !! 😱
[Thx.
@BlueFlameBlues
for the info.]
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10
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@stopabolicion
Es más fácil detener a un put ro que ir a por las bandas criminales de somalíes 🤷♀️
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$TELL
Not a friend of rumors in financial matters, but w0w, this one looks like pretty solid 👀
Thx. Justin for sharing 👍
Interesting way to legitimize the rumors. Driftwood LNG is happening and getting FID this year. $TELL
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@ZmansEnrgyBrain
It's starting guys 🙏
#natgas
production in Haynesville basin dropping consistently
1
6
22
"
@TellurianLNG
sees market support for higher [
#natgas
] liquefaction fees"
"We are in various stages of discussions with a broad spectrum of industry participants for over 25 MTPA of
#LNG
[...]we'd hope that we have incremental announcements later this summer and fall" 👀🔥
⬇️
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1
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Well, this is scalating quickly... 😅
"US LNG developer
@TellurianLNG
$TELL sends production workers home amid sale talks" 🔥🔥
"Tellurian has said it was evaluating SEVERAL BIDS for the property, and [...] the firm expects to make a decision in the coming weeks" 💪
Source ⬇️
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Berkshire Hathaway Energy Completes Acquisition of Additional Stake in Cove Point LNG.
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"Williams Executive VP. Mr. Chad Zamarin said [he considers] the export project [of $TELL] too risky [because] it doesn't have the commercial contracts on the demand side"
LOOL 😂 What else do you want Mr. Zamarin? 90% of the construction done? An LNG carrier too? All for $1/sh🤦♀️
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0
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#natgas
This is HUGE 🔥 "current LNG capacity + FID capacity (⚠️) insufficient to meet demand towards 2040"
We already know that, but it's good to see that more and more people are reporting it
Main points from the Chairman of
@IEEJ_Japan
message “Pause on Pending Approvals of LNG Exports: Problems that need to be addressed”
TLDR: need more
#LNG
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#natgas
news
"
@TellurianLNG
$TELL is in discussions with Saudi
@aramco
and Woodside Energy over the two companies investing in its
#LNG
export project in Louisiana" 🚢⚓️💦
Source ⬇️ (several, but I post Yahoo!Finance)
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1
18
$TELL
Mr. Souki is back? 🤔
Charif Souki said he plans to raise $100 million from investors to buy a stake in Tellurian, the US natural gas development firm he co-founded and which fired him in December.
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Not only
@Shell
,
@TotalEnergies
,
@Chevron
...., also $BAC Bank of America forecasts that global
#LNG
demand will exceed supply in the medium-term.
You know what that means for global prices and
#natgas
related stocks 📈📈 💪
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#natgas
"[...] it confirms Gulfstream LNG’s view that it has ‘secured one of the last remaining permittable LNG export project sites on the US 🇺🇸 Gulf Coast.’"
Daily reminder: there are almost no suitable sites left for building LNG export facilities 🚢⚓️💦
A moat is emerging?
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0
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Mr. Andrew Dittmar, Enverus Intelligence's senior vice president:
"The $TELL
@TellurianLNG
one [
#natgas
upstream for sale] should be interesting [...] considerably smaller deals obviously than Southwestern or Rockcliff deal [but] probably like a $500 million type deal there"
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0
15
"Ryan Duman, director of Americas upstream research at
@WoodMackenzie
, said interest in
#natgas
acquisitions could grow in the second half of 2024 🔥
One of the biggest prizes could be
@TellurianLNG
$TELL 's approximate 31,000 net acres in [Haynesville]"
Source ⬇️
2
1
15
Very important news 🔥🔥 ANOTHER
#natgas
company, an US 🇺🇸 one this time, that is negotiating an indexation pricing formula (TTF / JKM) to deliver several MTPA of LNG to its customers.
Some weeks ago we learned that Qatar was doing something similar.
⬇️
Today at the Wood Mackenzie Conference in London:
Chesapeake Energy is negotiating
#LNG
supply deals at JKM/TTF pricing. They are looking to sell 4-6 mtpa and are considering 5-6 liquefaction facilities.
$CHK
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"[LNG] Demand is projected to incrementally grow by at least 250 million tonnes globally by 2030" - Vivek Chandra, PhD. [Founder and CEO of Gulfstream LNG] 🔥💪 📈
#natgas
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@AllthingsLNG
Incredible post 🔥 We all are now absolute experts in the Novatek's business model 😅👏
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"Goldman predicts that infrastructure investments will drive up global LNG supplies by 50% in the next five years, leading to a halving of
#natgas
prices over the period."
A rather bold statement by
@GoldmanSachs
🤔
Source:
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2
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Huge LNG demand increase expected in India 🇮🇳 by year 2030, a +260% from today figures 🔥📈
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1
15
"Germany 🇩🇪 is set to agree a deal [...] for the construction of several NEW
#natgas
power plants"
"Germany wants to use some 24 GW of H2 and natgas power plants to cover gaps in wind and solar"
Of course forget the part about hydrogen 😂 EVERYTHING will be natgas 😂💪
Source ⬇️
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1
15
$TELL
"'I can confirm we hired Lazard and they are helping us as we seek equity partners', spokesperson Joi Lecznar said on Thursday" - Reuters [source in next post ⬇️]
No sales at all. Only moving forward in the search for EP
And about the """article""" from Bloomberg 🤮:
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2
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@EIAgov
It'd be very interesting to know power consumption data of "regular" data centers and the new AI data centers 🧐
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"As it stands, LNG export projects seeking permit extensions to ship their cargoes to non-FTA nations ARE NOT SUBJECT to the Biden admin.'s pause" 🔥👍
- FERC extension ✅
- DOE extension.... almost ✅
Remember we HAVE non-FTA permit until 2050, BUT we need an extension
Source ⬇️
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🚨 Breaking news $TELL
#natgas
"[...]CFM and Dr. Chatterjee may each be deemed to beneficially own, in the aggregate, 46,161,082 shares of Common Stock as of Dec. 22, 2023, which represents approximately 7.3% of the Issuer’s issued and outstanding shares of Common Stock"
[1/2] ⬇️
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"Indian Oil 🇮🇳 is in talks with nearly a dozen LNG suppliers for long-term contracts [...] including
@TellurianLNG
and Abu Dhabi national Oil" 🔥🔥
$TELL, one of the last available exporting projects in US and already 30% advanced in its engineering phase
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1
15
Mr. Buffett no longer loves Solar 👴💔🌞
🤷♀️
#Buffett
responding to a question on why they are not leaning more towards solar energy:
"Solar will never be the only source of electricity..barring some real breakthroughs in storage and that sort of thing"
$BRK.A $BRK.B
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@Justin_McD01
To note: the EIG investing fund is also involved with Aethon 🔥
Are all the pieces fitting together?
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1
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@pwrhungry
Or more summarized: EVs were children of "cheap money" 🤷♀️
10 years of low interest rates let stup d politicians and stup d decisions in everything: economy, energy, demographics...
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#natgas
"Asian LNG Prices at Highest in 2024 on Resilient Summer Buying" 🚢💦 📈
"Gujarat State Petroleum Corp. bought a cargo for late-June to early-July delivery to India 🇮🇳 at about $11.2 / MMBtu"
And I add, more to come 😉💪
Source ⬇️
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@anasalhajji
"The state energy firm [
@aramco
] is in talks with
@TellurianLNG
to buy a stake in its 27.6 MTPA Driftwood LNG plant"
"Aramco is also in talks with NextDecade for a long-term gas purchase agreement"
- NEXT HoA/SPA ✅
- $TELL EP: Next "big thing" 😉💪
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Global demand 🌍 for
#natgas
in the decades to come 📈
According to several forecasters and Cheniere $LNG , there will be a sustained demand for decades, with a pronounced growth through 2031
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@luo_yuehan
Typical of countries with much more population than university capacity 🤷♀️
The real story begins at the moment you set a foot in the labor market
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$TELL drama summary
It's all explained in the own Woodside presentation:
"Additionally, our existing US presence [...] will simplify integration, including welcoming the Tellurian team into Woodside"
Tellurian BoD sells below fair price in exchange for a position in Woodside 🤦♀️
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#natgas
"
@TellurianLNG
$TELL and Aethon Energy announced a HoA for Aethon to purchase 2 MTPA of
#LNG
from Tellurian’s Driftwood LNG plant" 🔥🔥 🫡
"Today’s agreements with Aethon take us several steps closer to developing the Driftwood LNG project"
Source ⬇️
1
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@TellurianLNG
$TELL institutional ownership. It's not bad that big guys are still holding the bag despite the recent collapse in the SP 💰💎🫲
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13
As reminder: 🇨🇳China sets the ceiling in oil prices 🛢️📉 They have a huge inventory to deplete 🤷♀️
[Thx. Mr.
@anasalhajji
for your help]
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1
12
$ET doesn't trust ERCOT a lot 😂
"Energy Transfer is planning to build several [...]
#natgas
-fired electric generation facilities in Texas to [...] keep things running if the state’s grid can’t"
The future of AI data centers: local grid powered by natgas-fired power plants
⬇️
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"Asian
#natgas
[LNG] buyers are signing contracts linked to HH ranging between 119% and 121% + constant factor to cover liquefaction and freight costs, estimated to be around $4.5/MMBtu"
BUT... ⬇️ (bad news...)
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Updated news on
@TellurianLNG
recent rumors
"[
@aramco
] is in talks with $TELL, opens new tab to buy a stake in its 27.6 MTPA Driftwood LNG plant"
"[...] also in talks with NextDecade [...] for a long-term
#natgas
SPA from its $18 billion Rio Grande"
TELL: EP
NEXT: SPA
Source⬇️
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Bullish LNG 🔥
Bangladesh 🇧🇩 is buying LNG under a short-term contract for the first time 📈📈
#natgas
0
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@LNG_Investor_
@Justin_McD01
🚀🚀🚀
natgas on water by 2027 💪 Official commercial operations by early 2028, let's go!
0
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@ericnuttall
Political invention to steal money from the taxpayers' pockets and to impose dystopian controls and bans 🤷♀️
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#natgas
As reminder: Shell, Chevron, Qatar.... and multiple other think-tanks and consultancy services agree that LNG demand for the near future will increase in great numbers 🔥📈
This time is the Australian 🇦🇺 company 'Woodside Energy' ⬇️
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"The request for an extension [for three more years, until 2029] is simply a “just in case” formality and normal for an infrastructure project of this size"
"We are still on track, and anticipate being able to produce
#LNG
in 2027" 💪
comments $TELL's EVP Mrs. Joi A. Lecznar
⬇️
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10
@SStapczynski
The value of $TELL is there: one of the last best sites in the Gulf Coast for exporting activities (the location is not a joke, can add huge extra costs to the liquefaction), already in construction and with more than $1 B invested
0
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"Asia coal demand is equivalent to ~3000mpta of LNG"
Imagine the possibilities just displacing.... ¡a mere 10% of the coal consumption in Asia with LNG! That would mean almost x2 the global LNG demand in 2023 (around 400 MTPA) !!
#natgas
@SStapczynski
@JesseJenkins
LNG is heading into the world's most coal intensive region. Asia coal demand is equivalent to ~3000mpta of LNG. Lots of that coal is domestic and will eventually be displaced by renewables, but there will still be plenty of coal left to displace. Source:
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From the J.P. Morgan report 🔥 According to its forecast, by year 2038, the power demand of the (AI) Data centers will be more than x2 the Residential 👀
Do your math: what energy source can provide that amount of power NOW?
#natgas
will be the 👑 for the medium-term
Power demand from data centers is reshaping the industry.
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170
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4
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"Global demand for
#natgas
is expected to rise [beyond 2040 and more]" - Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, minister of Energy of Qatar and President and CEO of QatarEnergy 🇶🇦 🔥🔥📈
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4
12
#natgas
is the fuel of the future 🔥
AGA Pres and CEO
@karenaharbert
gave the facts at
@CERAWeek
-
#naturalgas
is essential to the future of energy.
"We know the facts - we know that we're going to need more energy. We know that by exporting LNG we're reducing emissions. The facts have spoken."
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#natgas
"China’s 🇨🇳 LNG imports rose 12.6 % in 2023, and the country overtook Japan 🇯🇵 as the world’s largest LNG importer" 🔥👀
"In March, the country received 6.65 MT of LNG, up by 25.1 % YoY"🔥📈📈
It seems price plays a huge role; below $9 / MM Btu China buys like a madman
0
0
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Curious prediction from NextEra Energy $NEE about the costs for power generation for different energy sources 🧐
Disregarding fantasy 😉, we have that
#natgas
is the cheapest source of energy for powergen along with ALREADY built Nuclear
(by the way, sorry "SMR bros" 😂)
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2
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@ACCIONA
La cantidad de acero y hormigón que hay que utilizar para ubicar un disparate de EROI negativo o que roza el negativo 🤦♀️😂😂
0
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$LNG Cheniere
What nonsense is that guys? Despite 'Revenue' is much higher in 2022 (imagine, remember the LNG prices - TTF/JKM- and the HH back then), the 'Net Income' in 2023 is in turn much higher due to $25 B (!!!) in 'Cost of sales' in year 2022 🤔
#natgas
8
0
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@SusanSakmar
$TELL will continue doing what has been doing until now: to look for EPs / SPA customers etc. 🤷♀️
Fortunately it's a company, not a one-man business. Mr. Simoes and Mr. Houston have as many tons of experience as Mr. Souki. The company will be fine 💪
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@LNG_Investor_
@PotenPartners
Bullish for $TELL for sure 💪 It seems to me two years of advantage is a big advantage
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Things are getting interesting in the current LNG 🚢💦 landscape:
- First was Brazil 🇧🇷 buying LNG (remember, the country of the hydro)
- After Egypt 🇪🇬
- And now even more surprising, possibly Indonesia 🇮🇩
"LNG exporters are turning into importers" 🔥
US
#natgas
/LNG to the🌛?
LNG exporters are turning into importers due to falling domestic production 🚢 👀
🇮🇩 Indonesia’s utility PLN considers importing its first LNG shipment (They may need 15 cargoes/year!)
🇪🇬 Egypt is buying and is in talks to rent a floating import terminal
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@AllthingsLNG
Every project outside US or EU or a very few more countries will face A LOT of problems. The lack of specialized labor force, the inflation and the order queues of the very few contractors in the world able to build those things are the final bottle-neck in the industry
0
0
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Chinese 🇨🇳
#natgas
demand for the future is expected to be very strong 📈 And LNG is expected to meet a large share of this growth
0
2
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Dominion (an US 🇺🇸 energy and electric utility company) expects that by year 2038, 56.6% of its total sales would be consumed by data centers! 🔥🔥 (as reminder, Dominion operates in 16 states!)
#AI
revolution
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@lngglobal
Not a word about the costs 🤷♀️
I can $TELL you about a company with an impressive cost structure which can put gas on the water for $ 5 / MM Btu
#natgas
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"China's 🇨🇳
#LNG
apparent consumption reached >12 MT in the first 4 months of 2024, an increase of 35.52% YoY[...]mainly driven by the demand growth from the transport sector" 👀🔥
But wait, there is more: "The vehicle LNG consumption, took up 49.97% of TOTAL LNG consumption"
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#natgas
Info. about acreage acquisition in Haynesville-Bossier 🧐 Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) acquired recently around 11,000 acres equivalent* of natgas production for $125 MM in the basin. See the slide for details about production
Will $TELL be able to replicate such deal?
0
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The AI boom is just beginning, and look at the increase in power consumption for the new Nvidia cards 🔥
#natgas
only can 📈
"Nvidia's next-gen AI GPUs could draw an astounding 1000 Watts each, a 40 percent increase - $DELL spills the beans on B100 and B200 in its earnings call"
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"
#natgas
will be a material component of global energy system for a long, long time. There is no substitute that provides its positive characteristics (abundant, affordable, easy to store, energy dense, clean-burning) at massive scale in the near term" 🔥💪
The most powerful methane detection satellite ever built was just launched into space. MethaneSat will offer unmatched accuracy and precision in measuring global methane emissions across time.
I am proud to be a funder and adviser to the project. I come from the nat gas
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#natgas
"Everything is in place and heading towards a 130-to-140 MTPA market in China 🇨🇳 alone [as of 2030]"
LNG can only go up 📈📈
China’s demand for LNG imports may double over next decade: largest US exporter Cheniere Energy
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Petrovietnam Gas Corporation to launch LNG Business by Truck
"LNG, with its superior advantages in terms of energy efficiency,ease of long-distance transportation, abundant supply and less impacts on the environment, is the key product in PV's Opt. Energy Solution for the market"
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"Locations for AI data-centers may largely be determined by the locations of upstream
#natgas
. Further help may come from a cooler, wetter climate, lowering the energy and financial costs of data-center cooling" 🧐 🔥🔥
[Thx.
@energy_said
for the report]
4) Moving data costs 30% less than moving gas and 90% less than moving power. Proximity to power is the leading indicator of where future data centers will be built.
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w0w, today is journey of huge news 🔥
The summary: more
#natgas
-fired power plants are required "to bring that reliability longer-term in our system [and] for powering the future of energy"💪
We already know that... but this time has been said by Berkshire Hathaway companies 👀
The CEOs of two Berkshire Hathaway Energy subsidiaries called for more natural gas power plants at this week's S&P Global Power Markets conference.
"We are seeing these [natural gas plants] are needed to bring that reliability longer-term in our system," said Cindy Crane of
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🇪🇺 "We project a year-on-year increase of 8% in European
#natgas
demand and 2.9% in power demand in 2024" 📈
The Euro
#natgas
,
#power
&
#carbon
analysts at
@ICISOfficial
have published their 2024 outlook!
Check out their free white paper.
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@GlobalLNGnews
@aramco
wants LNG supply contracts 🧐 The US project
@TellurianLNG
has the volumes, with its exporting facility completed at 30% 💪It seems a good deal to me 🤝
1
0
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@ira_joseph
@SusanSakmar
Technically he's not "out", with almost 60 MM shares and still in the BoD. And for ppl. who has followed the company for years, it's to understand he has resigned due to his court case, not for other reason.
So I'm not going to vote your poll 🤷♀️
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Take note guys, 'Texas LNG' signing 20-year tolling agreements 🧐
Could it also be the model for $TELL? 🤔 I've already seen other recent deals under this pricing model
🚨Texas LNG Sells Over Half of Offtake with an Additional 1.5 mtpa
#LNG
Tolling Agreement with $EQT
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"India 🇮🇳 simplifies
#natgas
pipeline tariffs and plans to build strategic natgas storage" (India has no underground storage sites and limited LNG storage capacity).
Important to know for the future LNG spot price landscape 🧐
Source ⬇️
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"Amazon $AMZN plans to spend $9 B expanding its cloud computing infrastructure in Singapore 🇸🇬" 🔥
Well, you know what's the main (almost the only one 😅) source of power there, don't you? 😉
"About 95 % of Singapore's electricity is generated from
#natgas
" [in form of LNG]
⬇️
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