LNG Investor
@LNG_Investor_
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LNG, Energy, and other news I find interesting.
Joined March 2023
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👀 Keep an eye on the $TELL borrow fees which have exploded to all time highs while short interest is also at all time highs.
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536
🇺🇸Goldman Sachs is projecting an 80% increase in global
#LNG
supply by 2030, driven largely by low cost U.S. natural gas.
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144
Shell CEO sets ruthless course
“Ultimately what we need to do is generate longterm value for our shareholders.The answer cannot be,‘I am going to invest in clean energy projects & have poor returns & that’s going to vindicate my conscience’.That’s wrong.”
10
21
126
Bloomberg reports that Golden Pass
#LNG
is likely to be delayed from 1H25 to 2H25 with up to $6B in cost overruns. $XOM
8
19
112
Cheniere is forecasting an additional ~135 MTPA of
#LNG
supply still required to meet expected demand after 2027
5
23
92
The Chatterjee Group, a multibillion dollar private equity firm, acquires 7% of Tellurian common stock $TELL
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14
82
This might be the most bullish
#LNG
demand forecast I’ve seen, calling for an incremental 145 mtpa supply needed by 2030 and 375 mtpa by 2040.
5
27
79
🇸🇦🇦🇪Saudi Aramco and ADNOC are likely to pick up more
#LNG
assets over the next few months and years as they seek to build an LNG portfolio similar to international oil companies, says consultancy Qamar Energy
9
17
74
Wood Mackenzie - “We expect a pressing need for additional supply beyond the current wave. Delays in US
#LNG
investments - due to DOE’s pause in non-FTA approval - and the time required to develop projects elsewhere will result in supply growth slowing significantly beyond 2029.”
3
18
70
Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway are betting big on
#LNG
and so am I.
$SRE $LNG $NEXT $TELL $NFE
3
10
67
Tellurian insider, Jonathan Gross, purchases 120k shares of $TELL.
4
8
68
🚨BP’s 2024 Energy Outlook
In the current trajectory,
#LNG
demand growth will require 300 Bcma of additional liquefaction capacity to come online post-2030.
3
22
67
Tellurian insider, Jonathan Goss, purchases 100k shares of $TELL.
7
4
66
🚨Shell and Equinor backed, Tanzania LNG project costs soar to $42B from prior estimates of $30B.
#LNG
$SHEL $EQNR
6
21
65
Below is a compilation of various Tellurian Upstream Valuations. Both the median and average values exceed the net debt by a respectable margin. $TELL
10
6
65
🚨Zachry files complaint in excess of $1B against Golden Pass LNG
🧵A thread of claims for the project plagued with exploding costs and substantial delays that forced Zachry into bankruptcy 🏦
5
11
63
🇮🇳Indian Oil in Talks For
#LNG
as It Determines Long-Term Gas Needs
🔹Companies include Tellurian and ADNOC among others
🔹 Discussions depend on lOC's outlook after Modi's election miss
🔹 India's government wants to boost share of gas in energy mix from 6.7% to 15%
$TELL
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10
62
Woodside Energy sees massive global
#LNG
supply and demand gap towards the middle of the century.
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$TELL
Charif Souki said he plans to raise $100 million from investors to buy a stake in Tellurian, the US natural gas development firm he co-founded and which fired him in December.
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🚨Energy Transfer announced today that it has entered into 3 non-binding Heads of Agreement related to long-term
#LNG
offtake from its Lake Charles LNG project for an aggregate of 3.6 mtpa.
Customers include Chesapeake/Gunvor, a Japanese consortium, and a U.S customer. $ET $CHK
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OK Ben, it’s showtime.
August 8- “If you took him out, then I think those contracts get signed and people come back” $TELL
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55
🇸🇦Saudi Arabia Finally Joins the
#LNG
Wave
More investments are on the horizon. Aramco said in an email the company is looking for more acquisitions. Officials have been in talks with exporters in the US. Prior negotiations were upended by COVID.
4
12
56
13 years ago John Paulson sold 1/2 of his Cheniere stake for $6 because he was “tired”, merely months before Charif Souki shocked the world, setting America on a course to become a top LNG exporter.
The same setup exists with Tellurian and he’s going to shock many again soon.
15
8
52
The IEA expects Chinese LNG demand to grow 10% and Indian LNG demand to grow 7% in 2024.
Bangladesh & Pakistan are also expected to import more LNG in 2024 due to the combination of rapidly declining domestic gas production & the commissioning of new gas-fired power plants.
#LNG
3
19
51
The DOE clarifies that the
#LNG
export authorization pause does not apply to authorized projects seeking an extension. The extension request will follow the April 2023 policy statement.
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Qatar Energy Minister says the U.S.
#LNG
pause will hit small American producers.
“Buyers will not go for these sellers if every day the government could stop the process. It’s very difficult to have long-term planning when you have that.”
6
12
54
Shell and BP call on Washington & Brussels to intervene in Venture Global
#LNG
dispute
VG calls the move “bullying to increase their own profits beyond record highs”
Claims Shell is targeting VG due to their own “catastrophic execution mistakes”
$SHEL $BP
5
17
53
Exxon signs a 14 year gas supply agreement with Golden Pass
#LNG
for 100 MMcf/day, thereby creating an integrated position for themselves in the facility they partly own. $XOM
5
10
52
Baker Hughes expects 200 mtpa of LNG FID’s in the next 3 years as the LNG market remains tight.
$BKR $TELL
#LNG
$SRE
6
11
51
Tellurian: On To Greener Pastures
🔹Tellurian is 1 of 3 unbuilt projects not subject to the
#LNG
pause
🔹Despite the market’s dislike of the price, $TELL upstream assets were middle of the pack. With the asset sold, the company can focus on Driftwood LNG
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The Chatterjee Group has added 1.5M shares to their $TELL holdings, bringing their total to 47.6M.
The Chatterjee Group, a multibillion dollar private equity firm, acquires 7% of Tellurian common stock $TELL
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🇸🇦Aramco to enter global LNG business by acquiring stake in MidOcean Energy for $500M with option to increase size of shareholding
#LNG
2
10
47
Morgan Stanley provides updates to their
#LNG
coverage this morning
Price Target Upside⤵️
$LNG - 18%
$EE - 59%
$NFE - 64%
$NEXT - 66%
$TELL - 54%
The opportunity is vast to invest in the LNG space! 📈
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47
FERC when they received the Driftwood LNG permit extension request
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🇺🇸🤝🇸🇦Aramco and Sempra announce Heads of Agreement for equity and offtake from Port Arthur LNG Phase 2
The HoA contemplates 5 mtpa of
#LNG
offtake for 20 years and a further 25% equity investment in Phase 2.
4
11
46
Tellurian Gets a Lifeline as Texas LNG Falls Behind
It was one step forward, one step back for US export projects this week, as Driftwood LNG developer Tellurian was thrown a critical lifeline & the backer of Texas
#LNG
signaled construction delays.
0
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Tellurian Closes $260 Million Asset Sale and Retires Senior Secured Debt
“The partnership between Aethon and Tellurian is vital as we continue securing buyers for Driftwood’s remaining capacity and advance its development.” $TELL
2
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Tellurian expands Lazard’s engagement to include a potential sale of the company. $TELL
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44
Recently Tellurian set the record for the deepest 9.875” drillout in Webster Parish, Louisiana.
$TELL
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45
🚨
@PotenPartners
says that projects can be delayed 2 years or even be canceled due to the Biden
#LNG
pause.
They added the pause is “a lot worse than people realized” and creates a “big problem” for developers.
4
10
45
As India seeks new LNG supplies, speculation over possibilities of reviving a 2019 deal with U.S. firm Tellurian
“The offers received, including that from Tellurian, are under evaluation for shortlisting the most suitable offer” said GAIL
$TELL
#LNG
4
10
42
Manchin: We Will Get to the Facts on Administration’s LNG Pause
“I will hold a hearing on
#LNG
in the coming weeks to unveil the facts about the true state of play in the markets, this Administration’s motivations, and their implications,” said Manchin.
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🇮🇳 🇺🇸 With so much smoke around Tellurian and India, one has to wonder, when will there be fire? 🔥
#LNG
$TELL
6
3
42
📝For the first time, Venture Global
#LNG
has publicly released its SPA contract terms with BP relating to “commercial operations”, arguing the conditions have not been met.
3
20
44
Cheniere Scales Back Sabine Pass Expansion
Cheniere has thrown out plans to build three 6.5 mtpa trains at its proposed Sabine Pass expansion, but has laid out a scheme to develop two larger liquefaction units instead at the Louisiana site.$LNG
#LNG
5
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44
Nextdecade is set to shortly announce a 2 mtpa agreement with a liquefaction fee of ~$2.40-$2.50/mmbtu
$NEXT
4
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43
🚨SPA Alert
Cheniere Announces Long-Term Integrated Production Marketing Agreement with ARC Resources
The IPM Agreement will be indexed to TTF at a term of 15 years for 0.85 mtpa.
$LNG $ARX
#LNG
5
9
43
🇷🇺In 2021 Russia released a forecast where
#LNG
production would grow from 30 mtpa to 140 mtpa by 2035. Rystad forecasts the production will actually reach 40 mtpa by that time. 100 mtpa short from their goal.
An absolutely massive miss‼️
4
8
42
🇯🇵Japan's Kyushu Electric mulls 10% stake in U.S.
#LNG
project
🔸Kyushu weighing 10% purchase in Lake Charles LNG
🔸Considering 1.6 mtpa LNG for 20 years along with other utilities
🔸Intends to sell stakes to partners to help realize the project
4
11
42
Gas Is Here to Stay for Decades, Say Fossil Fuel Heavyweights
The biggest fossil fuel players are making the message clear: the transition to a green future will require much more natural gas.
#LNG
2
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Tellurian seeking two or three equity partners for Driftwood LNG
Simões said Tellurian was in conversation with a number of players including oil majors & trading houses, and expects to announce equity partners in the 2nd half of 2023.
#LNG
$TELL
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“Out of the $12B or $13B we’re going to need for Driftwood’s Phase 1, we’re now sure we have 9 of them.We’re highly confident that there’s other mezzanine financiers who will come in. So $2B from equity partners. It’s not going to be very hard.”
$TELL
#LNG
3
3
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🇶🇦Qatar’s energy minister warns ‘worst is yet to come’ for Europe’s oil & gas shortages
Demand is so great that all the expanded production from NFE and NFS could be tied up in long term deals by end of year.
#LNG
6
12
41
Ten long-delayed LNG export terminals could lose approvals under new policy
Projects include Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles LNG and NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG among others, according to Oil & Gas Watch
$NEXT $ET
#LNG
6
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37
FERC orders Venture Global to provide its customers with documents that it had previously deemed privileged related to a request for an extension to place the facility in service.
#LNG
6
10
41
🇺🇸US
#LNG
terminal developer
@TellurianLNG
is working with
@bakerhughesco
to secure long-lead items for its Driftwood project, while engineering and construction giant
@Bechtel
continues to progress initial work at the site in Louisiana. $TELL
2
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ONEOK didn’t mention the Saguaro Pipeline that will feed Mexico Pacific
#LNG
on their earnings call. Even more, it was removed from their investor presentation.
This is very odd for a project so close to FID. It could be nothing but worth mentioning. $OKE
3
6
40
Traders See Big Opportunity in LNG Market
"We are seeing
#LNG
as the biggest growing market in the oil and gas complex," the chairman of Swiss trading house Gunvor, Torbjorn Tornqvist, told Energy Intelligence
4
10
39
Keep an eye on Chesapeake, who aims to substantially increase their access to global markets. $CHK
This morning
@TellurianLNG
Executive Chairman Martin Houston provided his latest update to shareholders $TELL
#USLNG
#LNG
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Below are the highest potential short squeeze candidates in the energy sector from a screener I built.
Do any of them stand out to you as good opportunities?
$CRK $VTLE $ACDC $TELL $WTI $VTNR
#ONGT
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Natural gas has probably bottomed out in the United States at $2.25/mmbtu…I think the number that is required is somewhere around $3.00/mmbtu.
Says Charif Souki
$TELL
#NatGas
3
4
37
The announcement was made today. The stock is up 25% since this tweet. Congrats to the longs. 💪
Nextdecade is set to shortly announce a 2 mtpa agreement with a liquefaction fee of ~$2.40-$2.50/mmbtu
$NEXT
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38
Zachry notifies all Golden Pass
#LNG
employees they have been officially separated and gives times when they can get their stuff. $XOM
5
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Stifel increases their price target on $NEXT from $9 to $13 a share, a ~60% premium to current trading price.
Their long term price objective is $27/share in 8-10 years assuming all 5 trains are developed.
#LNG
1
4
38
Charif Souki resigns from the Tellurian Board of Directors $TELL
5
5
37
Flex LNG gets cool points for the Drake meme on highlighting Europe turning away from Russian piped gas while increasing Russian
#LNG
. Well played 👏😁
$FLNG
4
5
36
🇯🇵Tokyo Gas expects half of overseas profit to come from US natural gas by 2030
"Our aim is to create a U.S. gas value chain by linking our projects to increase the value of our investments, rather than seeking profits from individual projects,"
0
5
37
Cheniere is targeting ~ 35 mtpa of
#LNG
growth, with FID’s in 2025 and 2026 for expansions in Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass respectively. $LNG
2
7
37
The small world of LNG 🌎
Simon Oxley and Paul Kettlety work together at Barclays.
Paul goes to found Parallax (now Tellurian) with former BG coworker Martin Houston.
Paul and Simon meet up to found Snugg Energy.
Fast forward & Simon takes a CFO role at…Tellurian!
$TELL
#LNG
2
5
36
Energy Policy Research Foundation:
"The shortage of
#LNG
supply capacity would range from 5 Bcd to 18 Bcfd annually in 2040."
3
19
36
Tellurian has extending the bid close date to today for their Haynesville natural gas assets. The sale is expected take place in July. $TELL
9
2
36
Tellurian has begun downsizing their upstream operations in advance of their asset sale. Positions include field level and office roles such as accounting, finance and engineering.
4
1
36
🚨Aramco and NextDecade Announce Heads of Agreement for the 1.2 MTPA Long-Term Offtake of LNG from the Rio Grande LNG Facility $NEXT
#LNG
3
5
36
🚨 ConocoPhillips Exploring Sale of Port Arthur LNG Equity Stake
"With regard to Port Arthur, look, we've had some inbounds on the equity interest we have. We're taking a look at that and trying to understand if that's what's right for the company going forward." - CEO
$COP
#LNG
5
10
36
Venture Global’s Plaquemines
#LNG
received approval from PHMSA to increase the plant’s peak capacity by ~4 mtpa to 27.2 mtpa
2
2
36
$EQT CEO Toby Rice:
“The President’s
#LNG
pause is another example of the punitive actions that this industry is faced with. Punitive executive orders, punitive regulations, punitive interpretations by agencies.”
5
2
34
Tellurian $TELL is trading at an all time low price to book. For every $1 of market value the company is backed by $1.8 in equity.
What is this chart telling you?
16
1
35
Exxon reveals at their Corporate Plan Update that first
#LNG
from Golden Pass is not expected until 1st half of 2025, a slight delay from prior expectations of late 2024. $XOM
1
6
35
🔥Tellurian Estimates an Upstream PV10 of >$1.2B.
The equity is trading at a 25% discount to this.
This effectively implies the market is giving the DWLNG project as a free option.
$TELL
#LNG
3
3
35
David Foley, who runs Blackstone’s Energy Group, couldn’t help but be impressed by Souki’s grit after almost going bankrupt. “I think Charif wanted to not leave the battle-field limping. He wanted to go out a winner.”
- Swamp Thing 2015
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0
6
34
Finished reading the
@TellurianLNG
proxy. A few standouts:
1. There have been more shares issued in the last 4 months than all of 2023
2. Directors now taking compensation in cash rather than shares
3. Only 1 insider buying in 2023
4. Total insider ownership ~2.5%
$TELL
8
2
34
Zachry, Chiyoda, McDermott and Golden Pass have agreed to mediation to negotiate a resolution with the issues in connection with the Golden Pass
#LNG
Project.
Mediation starts this Saturday. 🍿
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