ThunderSaidEnergy
@energy_said
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The research consultancy for energy technologies. Helping leading decision-makers find economic opportunities in the energy transition.
Joined April 2020
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$425bn of
#Russia
total exports from 2019. $225bn of oil, $55bn of gas, $50bn of metals, $20bn of coal, $30bn basic materials and $25bn of ag products. 55% of the total goes to Europe. Clear what finances this war machine.
#StandWithUkraine
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Idea for the day: rising prices are the mechanism to destroy demand, when oil demand exceeds supply. It’s getting tempting to ‘cushion the blow’ by subsidising fuel. But this will only prop up demand, inflate prices further. Might as well give the subsidy directly to Putin 😡
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Uranium markets could be 50-75M lbs under-supplied by 2030,
a deeper deficit than other commodities in our roadmap to
#NetZero
. Demand is driven by China, generating zero carbon power at 6-8c/kWh. Uranium prices must rise 2-3x to $60-90/lb and we screen miners.
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@ntsafos
Nik, all great analysis. I am massively worried about long-term gas shortages in Europe. But short term, i am wondering whether war time psychology changes things? I know pure evil when I see it. So I will happily wear a coat indoors.
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Japan could realistically ramp nuclear generation by 130TWH in 2022-23, to free up 20MTpa of LNG, and help energy-importing allies withstand an unprecedented energy shock. Europe's gas imports from Russia are around 100MTpa-e. Uranium upside rises too...
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Fuels for an energy transition? Clean fuels are not a black-and-white category. CO2 lies on a spectrum and is -35% correlated with cost. Today's note evaluates this chart and dispels three myths in the
#EnergyTransition
-
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China is constructing new nuclear plants for c$3,000/kW. This permits acceptable IRRs at 6-8c/kWh. Uranium is a small c5% component of costs. Hence prices can rise. And rise they must, to $60-90/lb. We screen uranium miners for the
#EnergyTransition
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Europe's gas crisis can be attributed to falling supplies, down 15%, from 50bcfd in 2011 to 43bcfd in 2020. Indigenous production fell 10bcfd. Russia's market share is trebling from 13% to 40%. US LNG is the only way to avoid a decade-long energy crisis?
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The remarkable evolution of global LNG is below. In 2000, 95% of the market was >15-year contracts. By 2021, over 40%, or 150MTpa, is traded spot. Could help replace 100MTpa-e of Russian gas. But it's a tall order. New turning point in favor of contracts?!
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Is the world investing enough in energy? We find recent global capex of $850bn pa is 10% too light. Especially for wind, solar and gas. Capex needs also double by the 2040s. Terrifyingly, each $1 disinvested from O&G requires $25 new capex into renewables
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Every 30-yrs, a massive volcano pushes >10km3 of ash/aerosol into the upper atmosphere, dimming the sun by c20% for 1-2 yrs. If the world gets 10% of its future energy from solar, the 'hit' would be equivalent to losing all of Saudi Arabia's oil overnight?
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TerraPower is developing a next-generation nuclear fast reactor, using sodium and molten salts, with 600 engineers, and funding from Bill Gates. We could not entirely de-risk a cost-breakthrough, for reasons in the data-file, but the space is exciting...
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It only takes a slowdown in nuclear retirements to re-accelerate nuclear generation and uranium demand by around 3% pa. Costs tend to average $650/kW, which is 80-90% less than a greenfield and even 25-50% than new wind and solar...
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Idea of the day: prioritize electrification of taxis! A taxi is driven 10x more than a private car (200- vs 20-miles/day). Electrification improves efficiency by 5x (25 vs 130mpg-e). So electrifying the taxi cuts 7 gals more oil, 65 kg more CO2 and $20 to Putin.. every single day
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Carbon markets, such as the EU ETS, may well be suspended in 2022, as a temporary war-time measure, to prevent our own environmental policies being weaponized against us in an economic war with Russia. I.e., CO2 prices go to zero. Rationale linked here...
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A high-quality
#ElectricVehicle
contains 40kg of nickel, usually costing c$500 at $11,500/ton. We see marginal costs rising above $20,000/ton, >$800/vehicle. LME prices are already >$30,000/ton, $1,500/vehicle. There are five reasons in today's note... -
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"It is less environmentally harmful to burn a tree that has already been dead for 100M years than a living one from a biodiverse rainforest". Deforestation emits 10GTpa of CO2. Low income countries use 90% of this wood for 10-30% of their energy. Data here
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Decarbonization is not determined solely by new energies, but also by what they displace. Replacing coal with gas cuts 2x more CO2 than replacing gas with renewables. Replacing nuclear with renewables cuts no CO2 at all. But HVDCs help. More examples here
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Quite interesting to come back to this note, written in December-2021, especially as it is December-2022, and thus time to write predictions for 2023
What if an energy crisis is brewing in 2022; as severe as the first oil shock, with double-digit inflation and supply-chain disruptions? Our 21-page outlook aims to give a balanced assessment. Everything we know about
#EnergyTransition
may change this year
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If you’re going to make green hydrogen, the best way might be to power the electrolyser with a super-stable nuclear power input ?
What degradation rate is expected for a green hydrogen electrolyser, if powered by volatile wind and solar inputs? 5-10% pa degradation would raise green hydrogen cost by $1/kg. Avoiding degradation justifies higher capex and even adding batteries?
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Europe's shale resources could cover 30-years of total gas demand. Could exploration activity re-accelerate, to displace Russia, and coal, and complement US LNG? Interestingly, Eastern Ukraine has the best shale in all of Europe; followed by five others...
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Materials now comprise over half of the cost of a fully installed solar project, up from <20% a decade ago. The future of new energies will be driven by materials value chains. So we are more and more focused on opportunities to debottlenecking these areas
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Power grids will be the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition, according to this 18-page report. Tensions have been building for a decade. They are invisible unless you are looking. And power grid bottlenecks could last a decade.
#EnergyTransition
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Fertilizer prices are set to rise 2-3x vs normal levels, amidst energy shortages in 2022. This will dent food production, creating a humanitarian disaster. Could it be an even "worse" disaster than CO2 emissions?
#ESG
should help not hinder energy supplies
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I am interested that this tweet got no likes. No retweets. No engagement. It confirms what I now believe with every fiber of my analyst body: no one is looking at how massive the bottleneck is going to be in power electronics. Probably because it is too nerdy and complicated 🤓
Vast upside in power electronics may lie ahead as wind and solar accelerate, creating a $25-50bn pa market for STATCOMs/SVCs. Early wind projects leaned on the grid for reactive power. Recent projects are building more complex STATCOMs. Who benefits?
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Amazed today by 'news' of a hydrogen electrolyser claiming 98% efficiency. Um, don't laws of thermodynamics dictate maximum possible efficiency of 83% (Gibbs Free Energy of water is 237kJ/mol, divided by Bond Enthalpy of 286kJ/mol) (?) Perpetual motion machines next (!)
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Energy shortages are now costing the world 6x more than
#EnergyTransition
itself? Our roadmap to net zero decarbonizes the global economy for $40/ton, a 1.5% drag on 2050 GDP, vs. Under-investment in energy has raised 2022+ energy costs by 8-10% of GDP...
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What if an energy crisis is brewing in 2022; as severe as the first oil shock, with double-digit inflation and supply-chain disruptions? Our 21-page outlook aims to give a balanced assessment. Everything we know about
#EnergyTransition
may change this year
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Global exploration capex from the five largest Oil Majors average $2.5/boe from 2000-2015, and peaked at $4/boe in 2010-10, to hold production almost exactly flat. Exploration has collapsed to $1/boe. Is another exploration cycle coming?
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Disruption to Russian oil and gas is likely to inflate oil prices above $200/bbl and gas prices above $50/mcf, based -0.07 and -0.15 price elasticities of demand. 25-80% chances of disruption are now priced in. Impacts could be muted by war-time rationing.
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Delivering the energy transition uses up 1% of all global energy in 2025, 2% in 2030, 4% in 2040 & 6.5% in 2050. These are huge numbers.
#EnergyTransition
is easier from a position of energy surplus and harder amidst energy shortages. Winners and losers...
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The second world war was decided by oil. Unequivocally. Today's note lays out our top ten conclusions from the history. For example, limiting the oil limited the war. Some readers may draw conclusions about current energy markets and world events...
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Rising energy demands of AI are now the biggest uncertainty in all of global energy. To understand why, this 17-page note gives an overview of AI computing from first principles, across transistors, DRAM, GPUs and deep learning.
#AI
#globalenergy
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We usually assume thermal coal prices of $60/ton. They have now traded as high as $400. At this level, a coal mine could generate more cash flow this year alone than we previously expected over an entire 20-year life. ESG investors may donate a portion of windfall to
#Ukraine
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Comment of the week from a VC fund. “We don’t invest in nature based solutions, because maybe 10-20% of projects might not deliver as much carbon removal as they targeted”. Um, guys, like, do you know anything about your own business model?
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Yes, yes and yes. Cut the supply and prices go up, and weirdly we end up handing more money to Putin. Cut the demand and prices and volumes *both* go down. Less pain for the West, less gain for Russia. So few politicians get this.
the prime minister is making a speech on energy on Monday. he will focus on supply .. he needs to talk demand. the immediate way to reduce dependence and bills
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60% of all global textiles are polyesters, mainly PET, produced via 11 chemical processing stages that absorb c1% of all oil and gas. The very shirt on your back is probably made of hydrocarbons? And there is upside for PET in energy transition?
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Unpopular opinion alert: the problem wasn’t doing Nord Stream. Problem was ONLY doing Nord Stream, while shutting out other supplies. Energy security is about surplus. And flexibility. More options to cut bad actors (esp. pure evil-genocidal ones) without suffering a crisis…
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Japan could realistically ramp its nuclear generation by 130TWH in 2022-23, which frees up 20MTpa of LNG, to help all energy-importers withstand an unprecedented energy shock. This is equivalent to c20% of Russia's gas exports. But will be controversial and require diplomacy...
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Trying to convert high-grade electricity into a fuel is the thermodynamic equivalent of printing out your emails…
Synethtic natural gas could be made by reacting CO2 with green hydrogen in the Sabatier process. But costs are modeled at $100/mcf and round-trip energy efficiency is 25%. This seems to conflict with aspirations for rising energy efficiency?
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Energy shortages are biting in 2022. 1970s are one analogy. But 14th century was truly medieval. This is not a romantic portrayal of pre-industrial civilization 'before fossil fuels', but a horror show of deficiencies. Energy surplus should be an
#ESG
goal
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Our top ten predictions for global energy in 2023 include a new super-cycle starting (albeit slowly), continued supply-demand mismatch, three types of bottlenecks in new energies, and controversies over record FCF in conventional energy...
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Math alert: 1kW of new wind turbines cost 3MWH of energy, which is re-paid after 1.5-yrs. 1kW of solar costs 5MWH of energy, re-paid after 2.5 yrs. Hence ramping wind & solar alone cannot 'solve' 2022-23 energy shortages and could actually deepen them? :-/
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How long does it take to ramp new energy supplies and cure shortages? At least 3-yrs! Chart below covers 35 case studies. Solar is fastest. Shale is only short-cycle until you need to build pipelines. LNG is well-placed with many large projects around FID
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Who cares about obscure chemical intermediate prices doubling? Turns out HCl is an input in making PV silicon for solar panels, Cl an input for rigid plastics (eg wind turbines), NaOH for battery metals and bio-diesel.
#EnergyTransition
World produces 80MTpa of chlorine and 90MTpa of NaOH via chlor-alkali process. Marginal cost is $600/ecu and CO2 intensity is 0.5 tons/ton. Recent energy costs double total cash cost and ripple through for more inflation in paper, plastics, bio-diesel...
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New-found gratitude for the industrial complexity in my running shoes... astounding that I can access all this for €40 per shoe, and grateful that I don't have to run 10ks in gallompers made of leather.
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The five largest Oil Majors spent $10/boe on developing new oil and gas projects in 2022. A frightening precedent is that this peer group spend $18/boe (in real terms) in the decade from 2004-14, over which time its production fell by 1.5% per year...
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Coal seems an unexpected contender as an ESG theme. Yet in 2022, 15 Western companies can add >100MTpa in a world desparately short of energy. Helps keep new enegies' build-out on track. Current pricing throws off enough cash flow to fund other ESG goals..
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Today's video compares
#EnergyTransition
policies with some old Soviet jokes, after six months living in Tallinn, Estonia; and the history of the Baltic States swirling around in my mind...
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Vast upside in power electronics may lie ahead as wind and solar accelerate, creating a $25-50bn pa market for STATCOMs/SVCs. Early wind projects leaned on the grid for reactive power. Recent projects are building more complex STATCOMs. Who benefits?
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China is 18% of the world's people and GDP. But it makes c50% of world metals, 60% of wind turbines, 70% of solar panels and 80% of lithium ion batteries. Could "re-shoring" accelerate after 2022, and create the biggest US industrial boom since after WWII?
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What if the world is entering an era of persistent power grid bottlenecks with long delays to interconnect new loads? Today we look across the energy & industrial landscape to rank the implications of grid bottlenecks across different sectors & companies.
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Wheels are now in motion to acknowledge energy under-supply, de-bottleneck bottlenecks and re-shore critical industries. Our Apr-22 research focuses on these themes, and how they are re-shaping every aspect of the
#EnergyTransition
...
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Energy transition investing involves getting paid to take ten distinct risks. We think investors are most undercompensated for new market risk. And best compensated for well-diligenced technology risk, commodity risk, ESG risk, project risk...
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Steve Jobs advertised the Macintosh as a 'bicycle for the mind', as bikes are 3x more efficient than walking, per unit of energy. But bicycles are also 8x more efficient than EVs, per unit of energy. Our note reviews history, numbers, policy impacts?
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Today's global grid contains 7M km of power transmission lines and 110M km of smaller distribution lines. Thus we wonder if each GW of long-term renewables/electrification ultimately warrants 500km of new transmission and 8,000 km of new distribution?!
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Our favorite conclusion in thermodynamics is that gas turbines are inherently more efficient than steam engines, yet industrial civilization "had to" invent steam engines first (back-work). What future energy techologies will be boot-strapped by today's?
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The biggest "mistake" is that we thought events of 2022 would be enough to re-prioritize conventional energy investment. Nope. Now feels like it'll be a few more years of chaos before that happens.
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Scope 4 CO2 is an overlooked metric. It reflects emissions avoided by an activity. 20 options below are all deeply CO2-negative on Scope 1-4, some
#gas
#nuclear
#CCS
options 2-3x more so than renewables. 'All of the above' approach helps
#EnergyTransition
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A typical 100MW renewables project requires 10 tons of copper per km as it ties into the grid. This is at least 2-4x more per kWh than nuclear/other baseload. What upside for copper, power electronics and cable manufacturers?
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Decarbonization slowed down in the past five years. Global CO2 emissions still rose by 0.7% pa, even as global income growth slowed from +1.9% pa to +1.4% pa. The biggest reason was underinvestment in gas, causing coal to rebound, accelerating CO2 +0.4% pa
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Carbon credentials of wood depend on context. Each ton of wood harvest may prevent -2 tons or add +2 tons of net CO2 emissions. Thread below captures the 'good', 'the bad' and 'the ugly' of different wood sources and uses in the
#EnergyTransition
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The top ten commodities in the
#EnergyTransition
are summarized in our chart below. The median market grows from $22bn pa today to $500bn pa by 2050. On average, demand rises 3x and price appreciates by 100%. With some notable outliers. Full details here..
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Blue hydrogen is booming in the US, as the IRA effectively unlocks 40% IRRs on new ATR projects. For new LNG projects to achieve similar IRRs requires >$20/mcf long-term LNG. So does this put 60MTpa of pre-FID US LNG at risk and tighten global
#LNG
mkts?
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Powering the internet consumed 800 TWH of electricity in 2022, as 5bn users generated 4.7 Zettabytes of traffic. Will energy consumption double again by 2030, (e.g., due to AI, ChatGPT), adding 1% upside to global energy and 2.5% to global electricity?
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“You do the planting, I’ll guard the mulch pile”. This weekend was our first chance to get to work on our land in 2022.
#NatureBasedSolutions
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Nature based solutions will likely deliver c20-25% of all the decarbonization in a realistic roadmap to net zero. Advantages are low costs (c$50/ton), high practicality, high technical readiness and helping nature. Opportunities and challenges here...
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Can forests absorb CO2 at multi-GTpa scale? Finland offers the best forest data we have ever seen, sequesting 2GT of CO2, offsetting 2/3 of all fossil CO2 since 1965. Tiny Arctic Finland !! 100 other countries have 1-5x better climates for growing forests.
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Wind and solar do not inherently provide inertia or frequency regulation to keep power grids stable. However we are seeing increasing progress from wind turbine manufacturers, especially Goldwind, to 'mimic' inertia, with software, at relatively low cost..
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Are power grids becoming a bottleneck for renewables? Approval times have risen 2.5x since the mid-2000s. Wind and solar now take 30% and 10% longer to inter-connect, due to backlogs, power quality and remoteness. So are terms of trade changing in power?
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PureCycle aims to produce virgin-like polypropylene from waste plastics, with 79% less energy and 35% less CO2 than virgin PP. It has attracted controversy from short-sellers. But our usual patent review can partly de-risk technology licensed from P&G
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Sulphur prices have now risen 5-6x vs 2020. This may inflate phosphate fertilizer, battery nickel, lithium prices by as much as 50%. $100/ton should be enough to build more Claus sulphur units. But only if there is spare H2S from refineries, gas plants?
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An alternative framework for the
#EnergyTransition
is explored in today's 14-page note: what if the fantasy of perfect energy consistently de-rails good pragmatic progress; then the world back-slides to high-carbon energy amidst crises, especially coal?
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@allengilmer
Introduce them to anyone from a thriving Baltic democracy like Estonia 🇪🇪 … who suffered through 50-years of Soviet stagnation and repression, and now after 30-years of freedom has the same GDP per capita as Spain
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LNG progress will become increasingly exciting in 2022 (1) Each 1MTpa of LNG prevents 5MTpa of net CO2 (by displacing coal). (2) 2022-25 annual supply growth is only +10MTpa, vs +25MTpa each year in the past 5yrs. (3) The US has the greatest upside by 2030
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Second-by-second solar output typically dips 100 times per day, by 10-90%, for 1-10,000 seconds. Objectively, can we power real-world grid loads with this kind of input signal? And what are the best options to smooth the volatility?
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Today's note looks back at a dozen prior energy crises. Most tend to get overlooked until they are in full effect. 70% co-vary with energy rationing, 60% with recession and 50% with political upheaval. This may re-shape
#EnergyTransition
in 2022
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50 global LNG facilities and 60 future growth projects are charted below. Even adding +10MTpa of new supplies in 2023-24 looks ambitious. The cavalry arrives in 2026-30, adding +50MTpa each year, but this requires c14-20 new FIDs in 2023-24. Who benefits?
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Palm oil directly emits 1.2 net tons CO2e per ton of crude palm oil, rising to 8.0 tons/ton including land use changes (40% deforestation, 20% peat degradation). Thus once a bio-diesel has >35% palm oil as feedstock, it is higher carbon than fossil diesel?
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Copper use trebles in the energy transition, but 70% of the world's copper is stranded in sulfide ores. Jetti Resources has developed a breakthrough technology using thiocarbonyls (e.g., thiourea) improving leaching rates up to 500x. Four key questions...
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Fluorinated polymers are a hidden bottleneck in the
#EnergyTransition
, used in solar back-sheets, battery binders/separators, wind blades, power cables, and across hydrogen. Easily overlooked. Demand rises 6x. Markets are already tight. Who benefits?
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We can partially de-risk 5-7c/kWh levelized costs for 2 x 195MWe small modular nuclear fission reactors, around 2030, after reviewing Terrestrial Energy's patents, for an inherently safe, integral molten salt reactor at 600C and low pressure...
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Global gas production needs to double to 800bcfd in our roadmap to net zero, to complement wind/solar/nuclear. But is there enough gas? Today's model covers production, reserves, RP ratio and RRRs. 2019-21 foreshadows a shortage...
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What degradation rate is expected for a green hydrogen electrolyser, if powered by volatile wind and solar inputs? 5-10% pa degradation would raise green hydrogen cost by $1/kg. Avoiding degradation justifies higher capex and even adding batteries?
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Fuel cell degradation rates have run at 5% per annum historically, with <10-year asset lives. But we also find a strong focus upon improving longevity in Bloom Energy's recent patents...
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Savanna landscapes comprise up to 20% of the world’s land, 30% of its annual CO2 fixation, and we estimate their active management could abate around 1GTpa of CO2 at low cost. More companies will look to nature-based CO2 among
#ESG
goals.
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After food and energy prices spike, there is a 75% chance of government change at the next election, then the party that stabilizes prices often remains in power for a decade. Populists may prevail in 2024-25 and change direction on
#ESG
#EnergyTransition
?
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Personal plea for other energy forecasters. Please stop publishing "scenario analysis". It's like a sell-side analyst writing "in my buy scenario, the stock goes up, but in my sell scenario, the stock goes down". Cool. What do you think will actually happen?
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Today's gloomy video explains our growing fear that
#EnergyTransition
could 'fall apart' in the mid-late 2020s, due to energy shortages and rising geopolitical discords; which would crush more fundamental foundations in the world's hierarchy of needs...
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Actually there is a mistake in this tweet. Fertiliser costs are set to rise 2-3x on higher gas prices. But fertiliser prices could rise much more. Because we will also have fertiliser shortages, pushing buyers into a bidding war. Oh dear.
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We have re-visited 40 themes in the
#EnergyTransistion
, in light of devastating energy shortages and geopolitical disruptions. Biggest opportunities are to get back to energy surplus, efficiency technologies and de-bottlenecking materials bottlenecks...
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The world is shifting away from very large energy generators (as big as 100 - 3,000 TWH of useful energy per year) to smaller ones (<4 TWH per asset per year). This lowers idiosyncratic risks to world energy supplies but raises new systemic ones?
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Conspiracy theory of the day. What if the Russian visit to Iran is about the North Field? Straddles the Iran-Qatar maritime border; on the latter side of which, it underpins c20% of global LNG, the one flexible supply source keeping European gas from from total meltdown..
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The power demands of AI will contribute to the largest growth of new generation capacity in history. This 18-page note is the most detailed report we have written to-date on the implications of AI, for power markets, gas and across capital goods.
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A thermal power plant converts 35-45% of the energy in coal or biomass pellets into electrical energy. So can the other 55-65% act as waste heat to lower the energy penalties of post-combustion CCS? Challenges with this idea are presented in today's note..
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Wind and solar have net EROEIs that are 'lower and slower' than today's blended energy mix. They reverse the 300-year mega-trend of rising global EROEIs. But could future wind/solar EROEIs improve by 2-6x so renewables can dominate the future energy mix?
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The West has allowed Russia to weaponize its energy supplies in 2022. Most defeatingly, Russia's export revenues are set to rise from c$425bn in 2019 to $600-800bn pa alongside its hostilities in Ukraine. How will the West adapt its future energy policy?
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What if large quantities of power could be transmitted via the 2-6 GHz microwave spectrum, rather than across bottlenecked cables and wires? Today's note explores power beaming technology, advantages, opportunities, challenges, efficiencies and costs.
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The average solar project requires 2.5 MWH of up-front energy per kWe of installed capacity. This yields and energy payback of 1.5-years in California/Spain and 3-4 years in Northern Europe.
#EnergyTransition
is easier with an energy surplus...
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Global graphite volumes grow 6x in the
#EnergyTransition
, as each
#ElectricVehicle
contains 50kg. Pricing may rise 2x, especially with surprise shortages in 2022, and a shift away from China dominance. Four leading Western companies are ramping output...
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