Kevin Stevens 🔋⚡️
@kevindstevens
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Investing @EnergizeCapital | Over the last 15 years, I’ve worked in energy including startups, incumbents, & investing. I share that experience here.
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Pinned Tweet
Maybe the coolest map of global power plants ever made.
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The flip side of AI requiring a lot of power?
Airlines are using it for automation and optimization.
It saved Alaska Airlines 500,000,000 gallons of fuel last year.
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An environmental group successfully blocked the last miles of a nearly complete 102 mile transmission line that would connect 160 renewable sites to the Midwest.
Brutal.
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This is the most well-designed image of the US electrical grid I’ve ever seen.
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Cool graph of renewable energy by state. Contrary to popular belief, not a political issue, red and blue states alike moving into renewable power - we should celebrate this!
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📢 sound on 📢 - enjoy these 2 baby goats dancing to AC/DC on solar panels to get your Labor Day weekend started.
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The data center story is a resource consumption story.
Here are 4 data points that highlight the resource intensity of data centers.
1) We need to 4x the available copper and aluminum to meet the demands of both the energy transition and data centers.
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$1.5M worth of wind turbine blades straight into the ocean brings a whole new meaning to the term “sunken treasure”.
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Investors love to find “hockey stick” growth. The energy transition places you in the middle of 4 at once. That’s what a generational shift looks like.
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Drop an energy photo that could be an album cover.
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Transformer lead times are now 2.5 years and prices are up 80% since 2020. What’s driving increased lead-times & cost?
- Copper prices are up 50%
- Electrical steel prices are up 100%
- 20% of US transformers are made domestically
Combined, this puts 25% of projects at risk.
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Change happens slowly, then all at once. EV sales are outpacing every forecast and almost hit 5% of total sales last month - ~60,000 sold.
Source: IEA
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Find someone who believes in you the way the way tech bros with no energy experience believe in nuclear.
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Part 3 of “how solar panels are cleaned” - this time on a farm in the Midwest.
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Electric scooters in Taiwan have access to vending machines for easy battery swaps. It seems likely we’ll see more innovations like this in micro-mobility given its popularity in Asia.
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BMW’s new electric motor is rare-earth mineral free.
- 749 lb-ft torque
- 532HP (sport-mode 610)
- slated for the M60 in 2023
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The growth of solar in the US has been impressive, but it’s crazy what’s happened in Australia.
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There are 5,174 MW worth of data center inventory and 3077 MW currently under construction.
That's a record amount of capacity under construction relative to the current available inventory.
This is where the forecasted power demand growth is coming from.
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Here are the top 10 wind capacity countries over the last 15 years. As always, China comes out of nowhere.
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Cool map of all US power generation plants and transmission lines.
a) this needs to be a poster
b) the money is in mapping distribution lines
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Love this graphic of metal mining from
@VisualCap
- didn’t realize how much larger the iron ore industry compared to other metals.
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Tokyo has the best mass-transit system in the world.
- 13 lines
- 285 stations
- 9M people per day, 3.2B per year
❗️5 min is the longest you’ll wait, 1.5 min during rush hour
‼️1 min delays result in an announcement issuing an apology
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The minimum lead time for data center power go-live in a major metro is 36 months.
36 months (should gain mkt share)
- Pittsburgh
- Chicago
- Dallas + Houston
42 months
- Austin
- Northern VA
- Vegas
48+ months
- Phoenix
- Atlanta
- Silicon Valley
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Handy map of data center locations for each of the big 5.
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What are the potential impacts of data centers on US power consumption?
35% of the world’s hyperscale data centers are in Virginia.
The graph below shows US commercial power consumption with and without the state.
Without Virginia, consumption was basically flat.
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It’s been a wild ride for WTI over the last 18 months.
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China generating more electricity from coal than the US generates as a whole is something else.
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Did you know nuclear power plants once came in toy form?
They were made by the same company that made the Erector Set and American Flyer trains: The AC Gilbert Co.
Here’s the story 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
(1/6)
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“If you’re evenly split on a difficult decision, take the path more painful in the short term.”
@naval
has many great heuristics, but I’ve come back to this one over and over. It works for decisions big and small.
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Good map of EV density by state. The number here is EVs per 100k people. Georgia coming in much strong than I would have anticipated.
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people (wrongly) assumed batteries would never reach density for long haul or air transport - citing the “laws of physics” - innovation is awesome.
CATL will mass produce batteries 2x the density of Tesla and past the 500 Wh/kg mark for flight
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Amazon is now doing behind the meter deals for nuclear power in PJM.
The latest deal allows them to take 960MW of power directly from the plant.
They also agree to relicense the facilities and extend their lives by 20 years.
Pretty cool use case and a win-win.
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Olympic skiing from an industrial park, the way nature intended it. /s
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Me scrubbing any unnecessary negativity from comments on my posts lately.
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The US has basically stopped building the transmission infrastructure needed to bring more generation online.
New policies passed this week should improve the permitting process. But, other factors like interest rates and high costs drive the slow down too.
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A good look at where data centers are being built. (utility servicing the area)
1. Northern VA (Dominion)
2. Atlanta (Southern Company)
3. DFW (Deregulated, Oncor and retail)
4. Hillsboro, OR (PGE)
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The best way to prevent FOMO is to have deeply purposeful goals. So much wisdom in this that applies across all aspects of life - personal and professional. Well said,
@SchrodingrsBrat
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I will never pass up the opportunity to post solar panels getting cleaned.
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The average utility scale solar project has grown 6x since 2014.
The average project is 65 MW and growing rapidly.
It takes about 10 acres per MW, so utility scale projects will soon be 1,000s of acres on average.
Operating these assets requires more technology than ever.
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Interesting to see how renewable energy consumption by country has changed over the last few decades. 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
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In 1930, the Indiana Bell building was moved 90° over 22 months with 600 employees inside. There were no interruptions of any utilities and no one inside felt it move.
No wonder
@MarkTomasovic
loves construction tech so much.
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Another big data center / renewables deal - the growth won’t be coming to an end any time soon.
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Setting fire to oil fields became a common terrorist tactic in the 1990s. To put those fires out, the US developed a jet engine / tank hybrid that was said to “blow them out like candles on a cake”.
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The backlog of containers at US ports is astounding. Here’s a recent video from one that highlights the scale of the problem.
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4) Moving data costs 30% less than moving gas and 90% less than moving power. Proximity to power is the leading indicator of where future data centers will be built.
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This brings a whole new meaning to “caution makes wide right turns”.
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Whale oil is the only fuel source the modern world has ever transitioned away from fully. But, did you know whale oil is the original form of venture capital too? Energy and venture capital have been intertwined since the 1800s. (1/n)👇
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You might think this is petty, but I love it.
“Chips on shoulders put chips in pockets.”
@wolfejosh
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Everyone’s betting AI automatically increases energy demand in a big way, but that’s not guaranteed.
Between 2010 and 2018 data centers saw:
- storage capacity increase 25x
- compute instances surge by 5x
…and total energy use rose just 6%.
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@JasonWhitely
@wfaa
@ERCOT_ISO
Terrible quote to include without context as it pertains to rolling blackouts. Wind is out producing the forecast currently.
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This is what it looks like when an underground transformer blows up. 😳
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I’m with you all, this seems like a misprint.
But, I like the idea that AI and computing can eventually save us a lot of time and emissions!
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Australian power prices were negative ~20% of the time in Q3, and between 10a-4p averaged $0.01/MWh compared to $30 in 2020 - thanks to solar.
Victoria has 40 GW of battery projects slated for construction, 1/2 of the state’s peak demand.
This is where modern grids are going.
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Lazard released their 15th Levelized Cost of Energy report and 7th Levelized Cost of Storage this week.
Here are 5 quick takeaways. 🧵
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Completed yesterday, Siemens Gamesa’s new wind turbine is now the largest in the world.
By the numbers:
- 108m blade length
- 222m diameter (1/2 the height of Willis Tower)
- 18,000 homes powered for 1 year
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@SahilBloom
Good stuff Sahil - non energy people usually whiff at these types of break downs and this is spot on.
Here’s how China’s energy mix has evolved over time to get a sense of how reliant they are on coal.
China’s in the midst of an energy crisis due to its reliance on coal. Here’s what their energy mix looks like compared to the G7 nations and how it’s changed over time.
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Here’s the aerial view of the site - a coal plant. 🤦🏻♂️
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Most produced energy type by state in the US. South Dakota and hydro is quite a surprise.
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China’s in the midst of an energy crisis due to its reliance on coal. Here’s what their energy mix looks like compared to the G7 nations and how it’s changed over time.
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Cool time lapse graphic of energy mix with global events layered in for context.
h/t: u/piechartpirate
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If you’re a fan of energy transition data like this give me a follow!
I tweet a few times a week and publish at least one post on energy and investing.
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A group of 350 Dutch and Belgian Tesla owners met on Reddit and conducted a battery degradation study. Here’s what they found:
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Rolls-Royce launched its new "Spirit of Innovation" all-electric plane propelled by the industry's most power-dense battery ever for an aircraft.
Top speed of 388 MPH, 132 MPH over the previous record. It’s also the fastest to reach 3000m in altitude, doing so in 202 sec.
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I’m 100% for burying more power lines, but here’s why that’s not the magic fix some people think it is.
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One of the best, unbiased breakdowns of Biden’s Jobs (infrastructure) plan that I’ve read. (h/t
@AllisonReichel
)
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Texas friends: ERCOT sending out notices to utilities to prepare for rolling blackouts around 8P citing limited natural gas supplies and frozen wind turbines.
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Here’s how China’s coal consumption has changed since 2000 and how it compares to the rest of the G7.
Hint: it’s a lot more.
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@AlexEpstein
Now do gas v. expectation. Solar is 1% of gen in the winter and wind is 6%. Also, both don’t claim “capacity and baseload” as their advantage like gas does. If your value prop is resiliency it might help to be resilient.
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This might be the single most telling paragraph for PE/VC in climate tech over the next 3-5 years.
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Two more SPACs added this week. For anyone following along, I'll update the spreadsheet more thoroughly this weekend and on a regular cadence moving forward.
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Dominion is going to be an interesting case study in 10-15 years.
They’ve gone all in on electricity by divesting almost $20B of coal plants & natural gas assets.
The proceeds will go to investments in electricity infra to support new data centers and manufacturing plants in
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The top 6 US markets for data centers by net UPS power.
Northern Virginia is almost 4x (!!) the next largest US market.
Only surprise for me is that Atlanta didn't make the list.
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This is next level infrastructure modernization. Da Nang, Vietnam has a dragon bridge in the middle of the city that actually breathes fire.
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Hurricane Ida ripping a roof off a building and straight into some power lines.
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A better solution for high ceilings than the stick that’s used to change lightbulbs.
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We have some news! A new $330M fund to continue backing the world’s best entrepreneurs accelerating the energy transition.
I couldn’t imagine a better group of people and partners to be working with on this problem.
Introducing...Energize Ventures Fund II! We are thrilled to officially announce the final close of our $330M second fund to invest in technologies accelerating the energy transition. Read on for all the details on this new fund:
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Wind turbine blades are actually rigorously tested before going into the field. Here’s the largest blade in the world going through a standards exam.
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NVIDA isn’t the only stock benefiting from AI and data centers.
Utilities, building controls, and services businesses related to both are climbing higher too.
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Spanx was acquired today for $1.2B, never raised a dime. The founder did this as a thank you to her employees. You love to see it.
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This process from Toto Wolff, the principal of the Mercedes F1 racing team applies so well to investing.
The process matters, win or lose.
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@patrick_oshag
Autodesk - free academic licenses created user stickiness, graduates pushed the software into they firms they joined. The original bottoms up SaaS.
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