One Percenters
@onepercentas
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The footy newsletter. Especially biased against your team. Words by @msewillo
Melbourne, Australia
Joined December 2023
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Pinned Tweet
18 clubs. About 35,000 words. A month's work.
Now all in one place.
I'm pretty proud of this effort. So if you got some value out of my 2024 previews, please consider sharing them with people in your network.
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"The Port Adelaide Football Club has announced an operating profit of $2,006,030 for the financial year ending 31 October 2023."
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Lmao at Darcy Moore blowing the minds of the "On the Couch" guys by explaining that his main hobby is reading.
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Every time I watch a GWS game they have a new little fast guy.
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#Exclusive
: Eagles forward Jack Darling sat down with
@10NewsFirstPER
, discussing a major milestone, his time away from footy during Covid, and his future as an Eagle |
@WestCoastEagles
@10SportAU
@AFL
@ScubaStv
#AFL
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Harley Reid kicking his first-ever AFL goal at Mt. Barker will be a future trivia question.
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@Zonal_Marking
By my reckoning, Spain in 2008 were the last truly convincing winners and even then they only won the final 1-0. Four years later they were pure control and imo the performance in the final papered over an average SF display. Legendary team but 2008 forever their peak.
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It's so insanely tedious to pretend to care about any of this stuff - the initial claim, the response, the micro-discourse, all of it.
The Harley Reid coverage has been outrageous.
Let’s flip the tables, how did
@kanecornes
go in his 7th game..? 😂
@WillSchofield
#afl
#footyclassified
#aflmemes
#westcoasteagles
#kanecornes
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Just learnt that Rodney Eade claims it wasn't him who gave Will Minson a spray. The denial makes it an extra 5% funnier.
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Particular egregious to be doing this with a straight face at a time when things like groceries and rent have never been less affordable, especially for young people.
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It wasn't pretty. But
@essendonfc
did something their fans have been crying out for for ages: stifled their opponent's ball movement.
How did they do it? To learn that, and other musings from Round 3, read my review.
🆕 on One Percenters: Roundabout
#3
:
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A summary of my beliefs:
a) officiating AFL is ~impossible;
b) despite that, umpires get ~90% of decisions right;
c) we talk about umpiring because it's easier to blame external forces for adverse outcomes;
d) abusing umpires is a bad way of improving quality of officiating.
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The median AFL fan believes:
a) umpiring is bad;
b) umpiring is getting worse; and
c) umpiring being bad is the reason it's discussed incessantly, well past the point of tedium.
I think this is kind of nuts!
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Ah, the Crows.
They won a lot of new fans last season. Problem is, they also lost a lot of close games. Their best is very, very good – but there are challenges ahead.
NEW on One Percenters – my
@Adelaide_FC
season preview:
#AFL
#Adelaide
#WeFlyAsOne
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On Saturday,
@CollingwoodFC
generated a scoring shot with 33% of their 115 possession chains.
In other words, one scoring shot for every three times they won the ball.
That's their highest percentage under Craig McRae.
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Dwayne just said today is Florent's 150th consecutive game and that next week is his 150th game.
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@RalphyHeraldSun
Saturday was the first game he didn't play as a KPD, and he showed what he can do. Interestingly he played almost everywhere: across HB, on the wing, even up forward for a bit in Q4. All he was missing was some CBAs.
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Am I stupid (very possible) or is ~all chat about clubs having "tons" of salary cap room basically wrong, given the floor is 95% of the total player payments cap?
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It's actually pretty easy to not make fun of those Port fans.
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This is approx. 100x better than the bantery stuff GWS cooks up.
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The Norwood bid gives the AFL the chance to fix the SANFL's biggest-ever blunder. Ignore the Redlegs. It's time for an AFL team in Tea Tree Gully.
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Bonus:
e) fans talk about umpiring because the game is tactically sense so it's easier to isolate decisions as being determinative of outcomes;
f) many fans sincerely believe there are conspiracies against their team!
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Harley Reid is good. Kane Cornes is incentivised to say provocative stuff because it's good for his brand and his employers. Ditto Will Schofield. Perhaps footy really is just soap opera - but surely we can at least pretend to aspire to more?
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🆕 on One Percenters:
A single-topic Roundabout this week: how Matty Nicks and the Crows finally, belatedly, mercifully rediscovered their groove – with a twist.
#weflyasone
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Far-right grifters shopping in the international aisle for their latest grievances.
This man is posting addresses of other people’s properties on X, and has built a following on TikTok with over 100k followers by posting full addresses for people to squat in.
None of his posts on TikTok have been removed.
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Hawks are on a historically bad xScore performance streak to go with their mediocre actual performances.
#AFLHawksSwans
Final xScores:
HAW 42 from expected 66.0 (+0 rushed)
SYD 117 from expected 93.6 (+1 rushed)
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On the off chance that
@Adelaide_FC
fans don't already get around Here We Crow, consider this a strong recommendation. Good analysis, good banter.
EPISODE 82 IS LIVE!
We’re talking
🏉 Painful loss to the Suns
🏉 Selections - are we game enough to chop a few off the block?
🏉Dog Act
🏉You’re So Kane
🏉 Bozza is steaming
🏉 Fantasy update
PLUS MORE! Check out the YouTube stream!
#weflyasone
#herewecrow
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Turns out it's much easier to be sanguine about your crappy footy team when you're halfway around the world and it's warm and the sun doesn't set until 10.30pm.
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@HPNfooty
[to Gerard, incandescent, throwing papers]
4 games in one day, Gerard! Four! On a Saturday!
[leans back, folds arms]
Just not on
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@UptheBaggers
I was at the game. Obviously that doesn't mean my judgement is authoritative but I thought Pendlebury did a lot more damage. Slightly surprised to see Naicos get all 10 coaches' votes.
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Well if Hugh's reporting it...
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@RalphyHeraldSun
Here's a good edit of his work:
DAN CURTIN vs ROOSTERS | 2024 SANFL Rd 4
AFL website has posted these highlights of Curtin's 31 disposal effort from the weekend.
He's a smooth-moving beastchild who seems to have very reliable disposal. Watch for his creative kicking to targets on the 45.
#weflyasone
🇷🇴⌛️🇷🇴
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On one hand, the AFL is the most culturally influential institution for straight men in Australia (at least in VIC/SA/WA).
On the other, clubs currently employ people credibly accused of DV-type offences and there's every chance the AFL does this in lieu of meaningful action.
Before each game this weekend - all AFL clubs will come together pre-game to make a stance on violence against women
@7NewsMelbourne
@7AFL
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The club I support continues to fascinate and bewilder me.
Adelaide has made a bold play to lure Geelong captain Patrick Dangerfield back to where he started. Chief Football Reporter
@cleary_mitch
has exclusive details.
@7AFL
#7NEWS
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Three Gather Rounds, Andrew? Three? That's insane.
The AFL is already developing Gather Round plans for 2028 and beyond when
@FC_Tasmania
comes in.
The proposal states…
- 3 Gather Rounds per season for a total of 19 games
- Gather Round 1: Vic/Tas across Labour Day weekend (including Labour Day match)
- Gather Round 2:
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Once again I am begging the AFL to make extremely common and relevant stats like clearances and turnovers easily accessible on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Manually counting them while watching replays sucks.
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Genuinely baffled by the AFL's constant need to manufacture consent for stuff no one complains about. Maybe it's all a smokescreen for the 18-wheeler truck with CTE written on the side coming the other way at 200 km/h.
.
@cleary_mitch
on how the AFL plans to reduce game time:
📍 tightened-up score reviews
📍 the 6-6-6 warning
📍 the clock continuing to run during some stoppages
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@CalTwomey
@AFLcomau
He was lining up on a wing until R3 (you can check the CBA stats). Inside mid a great fit for his skills. Still a tiny bit of polish to add but ground ball gathers, evasion and decision making are all at a very high level.
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H O P E
Round 9
#AFL
team ratings quadrants
🙏🙂
😭🫤
3 very bad teams means more teams are falling into joy than probably makes sense, but that's what we have to deal with 🤷♂️
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Port should have been sanctioned last year when Aliir came back in the Showdown. Geelong should be sanctioned for letting Cameron stay on after his head hit the ground.
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Abusing umpires is appalling behaviour. It's also counterproductive, because it ultimately discourages people from entering the profession.
Nice to see Bucks publicly praising an umpire. Other prominent ex-players should do it, too.
Nathan Williamson
What a fantastic ambassador for the umpiring fraternity at all levels.
Love it when we hear from these impressive young men and women and their passion for the game.
Thank you guys 🙏❤️
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@BradPittonet
I think when people do work in a professional context such as this, they ought to get paid.
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500 followers! A nice li'l reward for a few months of shitposting, earnestposting and the occasional bit of analysis.
The newsletter will be back (soon) once I've cleared my day job backlog, but in the meantime please consider subscribing:
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Great write-up of Friday night's game by a level-headed Bombers fan. Even if you're not an Essendon fan (like me!) you'll find lots to learn about how games of modern footy are won and lost.
Essendon rd4 review up on
#thebombersblog
with good Qtr 1 & bad qtr 2-4
Agree or not, I’m not fussed with the loss, it stamps my thoughts on why the change in game style needed to happen, now they get a look on the capabilities of the list
#godons
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Pretty funny that the Crows being publicly linked with a player has become the strongest indicator that player is about to sign a new deal with their current club. (Yes, I know about agent shenanigans.)
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@bazz_27
Short paragraphs about six players we're supposedly into:
Hayward
Petty
McCluggage
Perryman
LDU
Daniel (!)
Nothing new from what's already been reported elsewhere.
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The best way to discourage the official AFL account from making weird AI socials content is to stop engaging with it.
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@chris_willo
Short answer: he's a Weagles guy and sort of rehabilitated his rep as a Swans assistant.
Longer answer: lots of high-ranking people at clubs thought the camp was good.
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In Stuart Dew's five-and-a-half years as coach, the
@GoldCoastSUNS
ranked 18th, 17th, 14th, 13th, 15th and 16th for turnover differential. Five weeks into the 2024 season, they’re ranked 4th.
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When I think of clubs that have been disadvantaged by changes to how recruitment works (or league expansion), my mind immediately jumps to [checks notes] Hawthorn.
In four straight drafts the Hawks have been pushed down the order by academy and FS picks. Could have had Mac Andrew, Logan McDonald, Duursma, Bailey Humphrey. How do we at least find a system where clubs pay full tote odds when they match a bid, rather than get a bargain?
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This is such a great graphic. Three names and then "SOMEONE ELSE".
With a $2 million war chest, and the clear need to add top talent, who should St Kilda have at the top of their whiteboard?
FEATURE:
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Jed Walter kicking his first-ever AFL goal at Mt. Barker will be a future trivia question.
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@jaiden_popowski
@AFLxScore
@aflcentral2
@andrew_whelan
@CapitalCityCody
@footy_charts
@fridayfootyquiz
@SquiggleAFL
Thanks very much!
More suggestions:
@EmlynBreese
@rickm18
@alittlefitness
@UselessStatsAFL
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It's me, the guy who's stupid enough to have spent 12 euros to watch this slopfest.
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@clownbaby_43
As someone who was briefly a staffer, you don't wanna be a staffer. It's miserable
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Dan Curtin's song is Exit Sign by the Hilltop Hoods.
Here's some lyrics from the chorus:
Everybody say "Hi"
Look who's finally arrived
I'm not looking for a good time
I'm just looking for the exit sign
🙃
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@PollyPorridge
He didn't even make an argument! Just some vapid nonsense about "this is the way sport is going"! Even if it were true, which is dubious, it wouldn't be saying anything.
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Please, make it stop.
The first trailer for Barry Jenkins’ ‘MUFASA: THE LION KING’ has been released.
In theaters on December 20.
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Digging into some Collingwood numbers. Here's margin differential under McRae. Green is games won when losing on xMargin, red is games lost when winning on xMargin.
Overperformance clearly played important role last year. Real question is whether it was luck or something else.
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Evil is when you celebrate a tough club champion on the day he retires with a persistent eye injury.
@Grit_Da_Great
@SensibleCrow
look, if rory sloane had achieved anything better than that collision, i assume you'd all be posting about that instead, rather than doing these mental gymnastics to explain why you're not evil for celebrating this
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We're going to do "clutch" discourse again, I can feel it.
Carlton 9-0 in last nine games decided by 10 points or less. Found a way again.
#GatherRound
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Pleased to announce I'll be pivoting away from footy stats and tactics into full-time hating and take-slinging. Incentives matter.
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This absolutely sucks.
🚨🚨 NEW EP OUT NOW 🚨🚨
LIVE at
@goodchatcomedy
in Meanjin/Brisbane, we're once again joined by
@MChandlerMather
, who explains why deregulating our planning system won't magically result in cheaper houses.
Listen here >>
#auspol
#housing
#greens
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Outcome bias rides again.
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@tragic_footy
@VardyMagic
@Adelaide_FC
The club won't think finals are over, and nor should they. That being said - no better time to blood Dowling, Zaylor and possibly Ryan than this next block of games, especially with Rankine's injury opening up a spot.
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So Robbie Williams gets more airtime than the anti-DV gesture.
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BT said this was the first time a Premier has started the season since 1999 (Adelaide). Geelong started 0-3... last year.
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@BMcgarnagle
1. Interns cost $2m now, do they?
2. That's why it's sinister. Port could easily make this paid and broaden the potential pool of applicants. Instead, they've basically restricted it to just people who can afford an unpaid internship. People should be paid for their work.
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The end of close games, and umpires' refusal/inability to do anything about rolling stoppages, is becoming a real issue.
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Have any of the usual suspects –
@EmlynBreese
,
@crow_data_sigh
,
@alittlefitness
et al – done any work measuring clearance quality? Points from stoppage nice but slightly blunt? Thinking things like length of chains from stoppage wins, etc. (I know CD measures clr. efficiency.)
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@MWL152
@Jezbettersadly
@chris_willo
@fromthe_topdeck
That feels like a good practical definition of the difference between A-/A guys and A+ guys. Part of it is that Walsh seems to lack the differentiating physical attributes that usually elevate those guys (agility of Naicos/Butters, acceleration/power of Martin/Reid, etc).
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@DanielGarb
@RalphyHeraldSun
The Eagles went all in to win another flag, and went bust. If the AFL gave them a bunch of extra chips (at the expense of other rebuilding clubs), it just incentivises imploding over careful list building.
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@VardyMagic
@Adelaide_FC
Crouch has been in Adelaide's top 10 players since his return to the side, probably top 5. His detractors have gone pretty quiet.
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I think people who are paid money to commentate football should learn what the word 'mercurial' means.
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