Jaiden Popowski
@jaiden_popowski
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📊 AFL/W statistics & analysis 📝 #AFLFantasy & #SuperCoach content 🔢 Data for @DTTALK including weekly projections
Hobart, Tasmania
Joined March 2020
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Pinned Tweet
📊 The
#SuperCoach
scoring system, explained
Solving the largest SuperCoach mystery, I calculate what each stat is worth. How much do you get for a long kick or ground-ball-get? Statistically calculating 157 stat values gave incredible results 🤯
#AFL
🔗
31
27
289
Most turnovers in an
#AFL
game since 2012:
17 - RILEY BONNER (R3 2024)
16 - Jack Crisp (R4 2021)
16 - Dom Sheed (R16 2021)
15 - Harley Bennell (R17 2015)
15 - Marcus Bontempelli (R3 2023)
#AFLDonsSaints
24
6
367
Those complaining about the Jordon Sweet trade disaster wouldn't last an hour in the asylum where they raised me
#AFLFantasy
#SuperCoach
7
3
338
Asking for a friend…
@jaiden_popowski
, how many in the top 10k are without Heeney, Sheezel and Steele?
#AFLFantasy
@CalvinDT
14
0
83
10
2
307
Approximate
#AFLFantasy
price changes from tonight's game ❤️
I believe the platform will use their usual calculator to do hidden price changes. This won't break your structure! But it will change which breakeven shows up... I think it will say Gulden's BE is 144 not 189 🤓
15
8
245
DPP watch after R4 for
#AFLFantasy
&
#SuperCoach
👀
39 players with a complete position change in 2024 ✅ 9 players are close with a MID/FWD split, including Ryley Sanders 🤞
48
5
230
Highest
@AFLFantasy
score on debut:
130 - NIC MARTIN (2022)
128 - Michael Barlow (2010)
127 - Beau Muston (2009)
122 - Jaxson Barham (2009)
122 - Jason Tutt (2011)
@essendonfc
#AFLCatsDons
8
10
221
Fastest to the
#AFLFantasy
ton (since 2014):
Q2 15' - JACK ZIEBELL R8 2023
Q2 16' - T Mitchell R17 2018
Q2 17' - K Amon R6 2021
Q2 17' - M Bontempelli EF 2022
Q2 17' - J Macrae R15 2018
#AFLNorthSaints
5
2
203
Most
#AFLFantasy
points after 28
#AFL
games:
2888 - HARRY SHEEZEL
2709 - Sam Menegola
2700 - Michael Barlow
2549 - Reilly O'Brien
2548 - Matt Priddis
Ridiculous when you consider their ages.
2
2
201
Measuring the impact of a Rising Star candidate is the hardest part - we can't pick it based on disposals or goals alone. I think Player Rating points are a nice balance and what we are witnessing from Jai Newcombe is incredible.
#AFL
20
18
192
Numbers from the first 3 quarters of North Melbourne's match sim today (courtesy of a mate so you'll have to forgive the colour palette)
#AFLFantasy
He mainly focused on the blue team but as you can see some notable players spent time in yellow. I believe Wardlaw had a big Q4!
23
6
185
Highest
#AFLFantasy
scores in a preseason match:
180 - ERROL GULDEN (2023)
178 - Tom Rockliff (2019)
171 - Jayden Short (2021)
164 - Lachie Neale (2020)
160 - Dayne Zorko (2017)
7
5
180
Footy twitter on the topic of kick ins, sideways ball, fantasy or super coach points
8
0
186
How much upside do our players need in
#AFLFantasy
? It's commonly stated we need 10pts of upside... or was it 15pts? We need a definition... 😂
I've developed a metric called Worthwhile Averages which provide a value for what we need from our starting picks! ✅👇
12
6
176
Longest streaks of scoring 120+ in
#AFLFantasy
:
7 - RORY LAIRD (2022)
6 - W. Carey (2000)
6 - G. Ablett (2010)
6 - B. Goddard (2010)
6 - T. Rockliff (2015)
6 - T. Rockliff (2016-17)
6 - A. Treloar (2016-17)
6 - S. Docherty (2017)
6 - T. Mitchell (2017)
6 - J. Kelly (2019)
7
2
171
How much upside does a player need in
#AFLFantasy
? 📈 To contend for a prize, your team needs to maximise 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲 - where a player outperforms their price point. ✅
What increase is enough to justify selection? And does it change by price or position? Thread below! 👇
15
13
173
DPP watch for
#AFLFantasy
&
#SuperCoach
👀
Here are 57 players who classify as a new position after 4 rounds. Ryley Sanders leads the limited forward options, while 'more half-back' time has taken over! 🔥
Where does this leave our forward lines? 😬😂
37
5
172
Ownership changes before/after practice matches:
#AFLFantasy
:
-13.9% Tom Mitchell
+10.6% Alex Cincotta
+10.3% Charlie Constable
+9.2% Fergus Greene
+7.8% Harry Sheezel
+7.5% Lachlan McAndrew
-6.4% Josh Weddle
-5.4% Darcy Cameron
+5.3% Tom Green
+4.4% Will Day
📈📉
8
7
168
Highest ranked
#AFLFantasy
team without...
3679th - Harry Sheezel
2186th - Will Ashcroft
1034th - Reuben Ginbey
182nd - Cam Mackenzie
154th - Tim Taranto
56th - Rowan Marshall
23rd - Josh Dunkley
18th - Alwyn Davey
17th - Darcy Wilmot
15th - Will Day
8
0
167
Most fantasy points after 3 career games:
352 - HARRY SHEEZEL (2023)
336 - Adrian McAdam (1993)
332 - Darren Bourke (1993)
323 - Tom Mitchell (2013)
319 - Kyal Horsley (2012)
#AFLFantasy
#AFLHawksRoos
4
0
159
Introducing Stoppage Points! 🎉
A midfield role relevant for
#AFLFantasy
is one where the player scores lots of points from stoppages. These players tend to score consistently well as there is always opportunity at stoppage ✅
And now, there is a way to use these stats: 🧵
8
7
162
Nick Daicos 🔥
123
#AFLFantasy
points
135
#SuperCoach
points
Owners are rightly thrilled, but there is still a lot to play out... 👀
5
2
160
Fastest to 5x
#AFLFantasy
scores over 150:
81 games - ERROL GULDEN
97 - Tom Rockliff
101 - Tom Mitchell
121 - Brodie Grundy
131 - Jack Macrae
5
0
161
192
#AFLFantasy
points
26 kicks
21 handballs
11 marks
4 tackles
4 goals & 2 behinds
7 inside 50s
To be this dominant in AFLM Fantasy you'd have to score 288 points. No other player scored over 100 in this game...
Potential No.1 pick in this year's draft Ash Centra went absolutely superhuman in the Coates Talent League this weekend 🤯
3
8
97
5
4
155
My favourite
#AFLFantasy
content creators are absolutely dominating this preseason. Structure and balance is always important when picking your content. This is why I associate mine with a team of role players 😂
Reasoning below 👇
28
8
154
Highest streaks of 120+
#AFLFantasy
points to start a season:
6 games - Gary Ablett jr (2010)
5 - Jake Lloyd (2019)
4 - Marc Murphy (2017)
4 - HARRY SHEEZEL (2024)
#AFLLionsNorth
4
0
150
Two career games, two scores of 115+
#AFLFantasy
points:
Michael Barlow
HARRY SHEEZEL
#AFLFreoNorth
3
2
148
Worst
#AFLFantasy
rounds in history for MIDs (average)
70.1 - ROUND 14, 2024 🤮
71.1 - Round 2, 2023
71.3 - Round 4, 2023
72.0 - Round 5, 2023
72.2 - Round 13, 2024 😂
7
4
151
If you started this
#AFLFantasy
team in Round 1, you'd be 82nd overall - still in a hat position!🧢
Total Points: 36,249
Remaining Salary: $3k
Team Value: $20.50 million
Points behind 1st: 704
Trades used: 0
Bench swaps: 0
Captain swaps: 0
14
2
144
Ryley Sanders would need to play 33:08 as a pure mid when (if) he comes on to miss out on FWD status
#AFLFantasy
#SuperCoach
13
0
147
Rowan Marshall as
#AFLFantasy
captain/vice captain:
Top 100: 58%
Top 1,000: 53.2%
Top 10,000: 44.66%
This means that close to half of all coaches who used their C/VC on Marshall were already in the top 10,000.
17
1
142
The
@GWSGIANTS
x
@westernbulldogs
rivalry was destined to be, from their club songs? 🟠🐶
#AFLGiantsDogs
#AFL
14
9
145
#AFLFantasy
FWDs priced at 92+ points:
2014: 5
2015: 9
2016: 8
2017: 5
2018: 6
2019: 6
2020: 5
2021: 6
2022: 3
2023: 4
2024: 0
11
3
143
10 kicks, 10 handballs, 10 marks, 10 tackles in an
#AFL
game:
JOSH DUNKLEY (R8 2023)
Karl Amon (R15 2022)
Corey Enright (R6 2015)
Tom Rockliff (R20 2014)
Ben McGlynn (R5 2014)
Brent Stanton (R19 2011)
Joel Selwood (R17 2009)
Scott Thompson ADEL (R9 2008)
#AFLBluesLions
4
2
142
Most
#AFLFantasy
scores of 120+ in a single H&A season:
15 - T. Mitchell (2017) 🐽
14 - T. Mitchell (2018) 🐽
13 - D. Swan (2010) 🐽
13 - B. Grundy (2018) 🐽
13 - T. Miller (2021)
12 - T. Rockliff (2014) 🐽
12 - D. Swan (2009) 🐽
12 - A. Hall (2021)
12* - RORY LAIRD (2022)
5
3
138
Two years since my first post here and wanted to say thankyou for all the support! 6656 of you along for the ride is crazy 🤯
Together, let's continue to innovate and advance the footy & fantasy space in Australia. There's so much work to still be done...
5
0
142
Players with a 116+
#AFLFantasy
score against all 18
#AFL
clubs:
Gary Ablett jr
Brendon Goddard
Dayne Beams
JOSH DUNKLEY
#AFLDogsLions
6
0
139
Last season, an
#AFLFantasy
hat was won from 246 points behind after Round 1. In 2023, this represented a ranking of 33,998th.
Looking at 2024, a year where they DID autofill 40k teams, this 246 points gap represents a ranking of 45,456th. No need to panic!
@HatChatAFL
10
1
142
Tom Green Ownership
#AFLFantasy
Top 100: 87
Top 1000: 837
Top 10000: 7631
#SuperCoach
Top 100: 97
Top 1000: 878
Top 10000: 8502
Thanks goodness for the bye 😬😂
12
1
142
How'd you go this week?
#AFLFantasy
Score: 2709 🔥
2k left for Round 1 🤑
Tag a mate who believes too much in practice match hype 👇
13
2
140
Thanks to the 7 "commentary" we are in a place where millions of fans are against umpires and then can never admit their own team makes any mistakes
Just don't make that error and we win
16
0
141
Fastest to 10x
#AFLFantasy
best-on-grounds:
41 games - HARRY SHEEZEL
55 - Sam Walsh
71 - Michael Barlow
79 - Tom Mitchell, Max Gawn, Tom Mitchell, Errol Gulden
5
0
140
Hasn't reached the app yet but huge W by the
#AFLFantasy
team
3
3
139
Keen to see what every player needs to average to be a good selection? I've created a sheet for all 2023 players in
#AFLFantasy
and required upside to justify picking them. It is calculated using starting price and position! 📈
👇👇
11
8
137
Breakevens for
#AFLWFantasy
📈
My best attempt at a pricing model that accurately describes Round 1, and uses a 3-game weighted averages. Large price changes mean players reach their true value faster, which makes breakevens more stable.
7
7
137
@WarnieDT
Thanks for passing it on and getting it sorted! Not sure why people are saying shut up Jaiden go outside you're taking it too serious. If I was, I would've kept it to myself. This was for the casual players who don't know any better than to trust the system
9
0
136
The Venn Diagram of Doom struck all possible combinations of carnage... 23 coaches unlucky enough for a quintuple strike 😱
Ownership for the top 10,000
#AFLFantasy
teams 👇 (good luck finding yourself!)
@jaiden_popowski
are there any teams that have Rozee/Williams/Green/Caldwell/Yeo bullets?
I have the last 3 but I'm sure there are some teams worse....right?
4
0
3
31
2
132
Most owned players in
#AFLFantasy
Classic history (1.63 million total teams):
568,029 - DUSTIN MARTIN
522,371 - Patrick Dangerfield
490,022 - Max Gawn
484,229 - Rory Laird
425,472 - Brodie Grundy
396,855 - Jack Macrae
356,809 - Tom Mitchell
338,968 - Marcus Bontempelli
10
2
133
Required FWD% (across R15-R17 games) to get FWD status (DPP)
#AFLFantasy
#SuperCoach
112% Jordan Dawson ❌😂
91% Harry Sheezel
76% Tom De Koning
74% Chad Warner
73% Ivan Soldo
72% Connor Rozee
63% Zac Williams 👍
53% Jason Horne-Francis
46% Lachlan Sullivan
7
0
129
Four
#AFLFantasy
defenders on the same team?!
A record 518 points for the Dockers defenders on the weekend 🔥
14
2
128
14 nominees for the
#AFL
Rising Star award have received Coaches Votes in 2022.
Leaders (up to Round 21):
44 - Jai Newcombe
30 - NIck Daicos
21 - Sam De Koning
16 - Heath Chapman
12 - Josh Rachele
10 - Jack Ginnivan, Nic Martin
@jaiden_popowski
love your work Jaiden! Coaches votes received this year for all rising star nominations?
0
0
1
18
14
124
Final DPP watchlist for
#AFLFantasy
&
#SuperCoach
👀
Here is the full list of eligible players with a position change in 2024. 1 more week until we get the official additions!
✅ Finn Maginness FWD returns
🔒 Sparrow? (bye)
❓ JHF not enough FWD time for DPP (yet)
44
4
129
More midfield time is a well-known predictor for a fantasy breakout, so how do we measure it effectively, across the entire ground?
I've been looking into where players win their possessions relative to stoppages. There are some notable improvers in 2023:
#AFLFantasy
#SuperCoach
15
5
126
Some general thoughts about the
#SuperCoach
scoring system and Luke Ryan's 111...
From my time interacting with SC content, it's very clear the scoring system is incredibly misunderstood. The lack of education is alarming and simple definitions create more problems than they fix
15
9
125
30431
#AFLFantasy
teams had Sam Docherty as VC in Round 1.
9.7% of them took the VC (110)
42.8% of them captained Rory Laird (57)
11.1% of them captained Josh Dunkley (77)
16.4% of them had a better captain (111+)
The average captain score for non-loopers was 79.5
@jaiden_popowski
are you able to scrape the data on how many folks had Doc as VC but opted to run the gauntlet and not take the loop score, and then how many of them got a better Captain score than Doc?
0
0
6
16
3
123
"Let's just squeeze some extra midfielders in there"
4
1
122
Optimal
#AFLFantasy
starting team after Round 3 🔥
Total Points: 7221 (1076pts ahead) 🚗
Team Value: $18.714M (1st) 💵
Maximised for total points and then team value, without considering emergencies (yet!) 📈 How many did you start with?
6
0
121
The team ranked 2nd overall in
#AFLFantasy
after Round 12 last season did not win a hat.
70 of the hat winners were outside the top 100 at some point after Round 12.
Long way to go, and we have an extra round!
7
1
119
Highest
#AFLFantasy
scores from 10 or fewer disposals:
131 - JOEL AMARTEY (R14 2024)
128 - Mason Cox (R22 2017)
124 - Matthew Leuenberger (R14 2015)
118 - Angus Graham (R10 2010)
118 - Shane Mumford (R3 2014)
8
2
118
Round 9's top scorer Errol Gulden now has 3 scores of 150+
#AFLFantasy
points after just 52
#AFL
games.
Fewest games for 3 x 150s (this century):
52 - ERROL GULDEN
64 - Josh Dunkley
71 - Zach Merrett
72 - Matt Priddis
74 - Tom Mitchell
3
0
113
2024 Breakout Candidates 📈
#AFLFantasy
Stoppage points aren't just useful for the elite midfielders. We can also come up with proper numbers that fit midfield breakouts ✅
Typical improvers averaged 38-51 stoppage points and were under 28yo. It has a great track record 🔥
4
2
115
Consecutive weeks as the
#AFLFantasy
top scorer (2001-2024):
3 - TRISTAN XERRI
2 - Buckley, Hall (x2), West, Akermanis, Cox, van Berlo, Ablett (x2), Rockliff, TMitchell, Neale, Merrett, Marshall
@jaiden_popowski
assuming xerri tops weekly x3 In a row, what’s longest streak for this and how does it rank among best 3 game consecutive totals? English next week as well…
0
0
1
4
2
113
Most hitouts-to-advantage after 6 career
#AFL
games:
56 - SAM HAYES
48 - Matt Flynn
47 - Ned Reeves
46 - Sam Naismith
43 - Sean Darcy
#AFLFantasy
🤞🤞
3
6
109
Top
#AFLFantasy
coaches over the last 3* seasons, sorted by top 100 finishes then aggregate rank 🚗🧢
@Dolmanators
👑
*Only have top 1000 from 2022
17
5
111
Most consistent opening 4 games in
#AFLFantasy
:
🥇 Matthew Boyd 2016 (92 92 92 92)
🥈 Jacob Weitering 2020 (49 49 50 48)
🥉 Michael Hibberd 2014 (96 95 95 97)
🥉 Ricky Henderson 2018 (89 90 91 91)
🥉 JORDAN CLARK 2024 (97 99 97 97)
@jaiden_popowski
has there been a more consistent start to an AFL fantasy season than Jordan Clark? 97, 99, 97, 97 so far
0
0
1
5
0
107
Bombers copping it for this yet the Bulldogs did the exact same thing one (1) day later
With finals footy on the line, Essendon did not win a single 50-50 ball in the third term 🤯
73
14
348
20
1
108
New Worthwhile Averages spreadsheet available now, including both
#AFLFantasy
and
#SuperCoach
estimations. 📈👇 These values are what each player needs to average to be a great pick and are calculated using price & position.
6
4
108
Cheapest starting price to reach the most expensive player in
#AFLFantasy
(scaled to 2024 prices) 🤑
$580k TRISTAN XERRI (2024)
$765k Dayne Zorko (2024)
$776k Jack Steven (2015)
$784k Todd Goldstein (2015)
$819k Josh Dunkley (2022)
3
2
107
#SuperCoach
community! Have you wondered what a player would need to average to be a good pick? 🤔Choosing players who outperform their price is the key. 📈 So what does the history say about SuperCoach prices/positions and what they must average? 👇
9
5
107
Active streaks of scoring 99+ in
#AFLFantasy
:
10 - JACK CRISP
9 -
8 -
7 -
6 -
5 -
4 - Mills, Kelly, Sinclair, Oliver
3 - Laird, Coniglio, Neale, Angus Brayshaw
#AFLPiesDees
3
2
103
This game moves fast
#AFLFantasy
I'm hesitant on Jack Macrae in
#AFLFantasy
/
#SuperCoach
🤔
73 stoppage points is his highest in almost two years (no Libba). Limited CBAs but 15pts better than anyone else around the ground.
56 transition points is solid, but the Dogs averaged 64.2 TP each, he didn't capitalise!
19
1
78
6
0
104
If the
#AFL
All-Australian team was selected by:
• the highest averages in Player Ratings points;
• with a minimum of 13 out of 16 games;
• and by their main lineup position in 2022.
AFL Player Ratings measure a player’s performance using location and the result of events.
12
1
105
All (updated) player breakevens now available on the site! Spreadsheet download available too ❤️
Let me know if you have any questions 🤑
#AFLFantasy
6
3
105
The early byes present a lot of unknowns - but we do get the benefits of Best 18 to help out. If we were to pick an early bye premium, what can we expect as their cover? 😬
In 2023, the average 19th score was 58 points 🤔
#AFLFantasy
#SuperCoach
7
5
106
The
#AFLFantasy
Venn Diagram of Doom is back, this week striking every coach in the top 10,000!
Owns 1: 2.93%
Owns 2: 23.74%
Owns 3: 60.28%
Owns 4: 12.87%
Owns 5: 0.18%
16
2
105
Take me back to when 64% of
#AFLFantasy
coaches believed Macrae still had it. What I would give for that hamstring stuff to not happen...
6
0
105
4000+ career
#AFLFantasy
points after 41 career games:
Tom Rockliff
Michael Barlow
NICK DAICOS
3
1
103
DPP tracker for
#AFLFantasy
#SuperCoach
Cheers for your patience, I know a lot of you asked for it! Will be onto it next week ready for the changes. Thin bunch considering you need 6 games played for the season
Ruck approximations using their contests:
TDK 71%, Sam Darcy 34%
27
3
104
I am now hearing official word that I was right all along and there will be the equivalent of two changes (first one hidden)
#AFLFantasy
The breakevens/proj prices in the site are all wrong and should not be used.
Instead use numbers I came up with here
Breaking news
#AFLFantasy
🚨
"Double price change" does not exist ⚠️
AF HQ have decided to entirely skip the change that would've typically occur now. It won't be made up for next week.
Instead a single change will occur:
P2 = 0.85 * P1 + 0.083 * Mn * S1 + 0.066 * Mn * S0
16
3
65
17
9
102
Sanders sub obviously makes this last minute trade decision hard, but low time on ground will only help his chances at holding on to that precious FWD status.
I want MORE carnage because it gives better coaches an advantage - a chance to adapt smartly.
#AFLFantasy
#SuperCoach
21
0
102
The
#AFLFantasy
Preseason All Stars 🔥
Scoring a whopping 2627 points, there were some great performers this preseason! 📈
And before you think this is silly, know that 38 teams exactly copied last season's version - the 2nd most popular 22 behind the Traders' team reveal 😬😂
6
0
102
Despite playing 388
#AFL
games, Scott Pendlebury has never finished a game with 12 kicks & 10 handballs. That stat line today would leave him with:
10,000 career disposals
5,000 career kicks
5,000 career handballs
#AFLPiesPower
4
0
101
#AFLWFantasy
Breakevens Round 3 📈
Additional data helps with model accuracy - getting closer to knowing all the pieces!
All players 👇
8
5
100
Imagine being an umpire and listening to these guys over the last 2 games
Apparently you have to have consistent, but can't pay free kicks against a comeback, can't pay them in specific parts of the ground, and can't follow the rules where "common sense" is more important
15
5
100
The Suns defensive setup made the most of the Saints matchup averaging 114
#AFLFantasy
points each 🤯 Huge!
(guess which one I streamed in my draft league 🤣)
4
1
100
Longest
#AFLFantasy
ton runs from start of season:
17 - Tom Mitchell (2017)
14 - Jack Macrae (2021)
14 - TIM TARANTO (2023) ❌
11 - Paul Chapman (2010)
10 - Clayton Oliver (2023)
3
1
98
So, are we ever gonna talk about Dane Swan holding the highest
#AFLFantasy
average, not Tom Rockliff?
Robbed of the 'title' due to lockout lifting too early; 7 games with stat adjustments adding up to 36 points.
9
2
96
With Sydney's dominance this season, I think the
#AFL
needs to change the Grand Final system.
If Swans win, premiers! If Swans lose, they can have a rematch. It's unfair if they lose in my opinion
On a completely unrelated note, how dominant was Collingwood's 1927-30 4peat 🔥🏆
36
7
99
Season rankings of Brownlow medal winners and how the 2022 favourites compare. Clayton Oliver is leading the comp in ALL 5 of these. What does this say about Andrew Brayshaw and the team balance of Fremantle?
22
2
96
Most
#AFLFantasy
points after 8 rounds:
1071 - Brent Stanton (2012)
1037 - Jack Macrae (2018)
1034 - Tom Rockliff (2017)
1019 - Zach Merrett (2017)
1008 - Tom Mitchell (2017)
990 - TIM ENGLISH (2023)
12
2
97
