Fantasynut (Vams)
@fantasynut_afl
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Had the privilege to pod with the 🐐. We had an extensive discussion about some of the unique aspects of the 2024 fantasy season and how best to take advantage. All the conundrums we're facing were tackled in this two part pod.
I hope subscribers find it as helpful as I did.
Big thanks to
@mryellowtbuk
for the 2 hour, 2 part strategy chat that forms part of the Season Guide podcasts.
Also to
@theWongster
and
@helloitjack
for their magic with the data,
@XaviEllis18
and
@babylon9268
for their contribution on the pods and everyone who has supported it.
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I don't know another sport where the Draft is as compromised as it is in AFL.
-Father-Son
-Academy
-Priority Picks when the AFL so chooses
-Free agency compo picks
And often happening at the top of the Draft affecting the clubs that need the best talent the most.
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Might be nervous if you're fielding Hawks players this week. Mitchell just tested positive to Covid. Let's see how many Hawks players catch it.
P.S-a complete coincidence that they're playing WC for pick 1 this week eh......
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Laird went from knee injury late in game rd 6, to fine, to calf issue, to likely will miss, to will be fine, to leaving captain run early and likely to miss, to is good to go but needs to complete warm up, to playing to subbed to not actually subbed to scoring 110.
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Feel for owners, esp those that just traded him in.
Would really love for
#AFLFantasy
to bring in a TOG% rule. That's what our subs should be able to be used for.
I'm not interested in 'but it's part of the game' type arguments.
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What a perfect month from Sharp as he soon enters his bye.
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Thank you for your service 🫡
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Non-Daicos owners, feel free to congregate. It's a safe space to vent as the little star runs around driving a dagger in our hearts with every bloody touch.
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Bont-down 76k
Dawson-down 35k
Brayshaw-down 42k
Oliver-down 91k
Daicos-down 48k
Gulden-down 88k
Taranto-down 122k
laughing if you started Serong and Green though, but, this season once again showing the risk of starting with the high end mids.
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The 2024 starting team template is beginning to take shape:
Touk
Mills
Steele
The interesting thing will be the FWDS.
Taranto, Dunks, Butters, Rozee, Cogs, Gulden, Daniel, Ziebell, Sheez will likely all lose fwd eligibility. That's 9 of the top 10 ave fwds atm.
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Request for feature on the
@AFLFantasy
platform.
Include a way that folks can send a picture of their entire team/squad in a single screenshot.
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My live rank in free fall as a non Ziebell owner here lol
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If you started with Noah, the temptation to trade him to LDU after rd 2 would've been strong.
LDU ave 115.
Noah ave 80 and looking lethargic.
Since then:
LDU ave 75 and has missed 2 games.
Noah ave 118.
This game is hard.
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"I did a lot of PS research"
"Nice, so you're off to a nice start then?"
"........"
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I feel like Darcy is killing English and yet Timmy is on track for 120.
He’s matchup proof.
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Calling it now.
Sheldrick will be the most owned non-rookie in 2025, after he moves clubs.
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Brisbane have West Coast at the GABBA next week.
Neale a sub risk?
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No getting around it, max pain for those that went Marshall to Sweet last week.
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Quick shout-out to an unsung fantasy hero this yr.
Marcus Bontempelli.
He has the most fantasy points of any mid (non-DPP).
Remarkably consistent. Hasn't gone below 90. Scored above 100 in 9 of his last 10 games.
The midfield move has everything we hoped it would be. Gun.
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The lack of respect Zorko has received this yr is outrageous.
“bUt hEs iNjUrY pRoNe”
Meanwhile everyone starts Yeo and half the comp brings in a guy who was, and still is, within a whisker of back surgery.
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Ginbey 1st half:
0 kicks
5 handballs
0 marks
9 tackles
46 pts
lol
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Friendly reminder that Warnie, Calvin and Roy don’t own or actually run the game. They have been inadvertently thrust into a spokesperson role (I suspect above and beyond their paid job description), mainly because when we want to direct our ire at
@GeniusSports
there’s no
While it would be good to have more info, your previous knowledge of how prices change should be sweet.
As for the incorrect BEs, this was an error which has been communicated (FYI - I can't just send something from the official account until it has been approved).
#AFLFantasy
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Mids against Pies over the last 2 months:
Noah-123
Dawson-172
Viney-135
Sheed-138
Greenwood-114
Cerra-119
Kelly-113
Gulden-161, Parker 117
Treloar, Bont et al gonna cook?
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This goes against all my superstitions but here we go:
I have a feeling that Dunks is gonna go large today, like 140+.
He's my VC.
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If you've spent a fair part of this yr researching it can be very frustrating watching opening Round, because in all likelihood, every player that has popped that you don't have has either been in your side at some point or you've at least seriously contemplated them.
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Started posting about
#AFLFantasy
from this account almost exactly a year ago. Mainly just to jot down my own general ideas and musings.
Appreciate all 2k of you, thanks for taking an interest.
🫡🤝
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I suspect Callum Mills will be the most popular under-priced premo mid going into 2024.
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I wonder who the highest ranked team with all of the following is:
Green, Rozee, Yeo, Caldwell, Fyfe and Z.Williams.
We need to go on a Saving Private Ryan style expedition to find this team and wrap our arms around them.
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I am fairly certain Mills has laid more than two tackles…….
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😳
Ginbey averaged nearly 6 tackles a game last yr. That's not some stick figure he's casually shrugged off there.
Harley Reid shrugging off Reuben Ginbey like it’s nothing 😤
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Folks, you need to understand the Kane Cornes model. It is not about journalistic integrity, or being right or being consistent. He's the Stephen A Smith of AFL media. His sole KPI is about engagement/clicks. He's trying to create online outrage and you guys just help him do it.
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I’ll be fascinated to see how many pass on 117 and roll with English as C
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So after all that, Powell was the one with the big role change?
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Surprised at the lack of Sheezel love this week.
758k. Priced at 89.
Without Hall (n=8) he averages 105.75.
I suspect the mental hurdle folks are struggling to overcome are 1) he's a rookie and 2) they traded him out.
If Hall isn't name I like Sheez as a premium option.
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I think the start with the Fab 5 fwds strategy has proven to be the right play thus far.
Ave vs last yr:
Cogs + 5.5
Rozee + 11.7
Gulden +6.6
Taranto +21.7
Dunkley -16.6
Given Dunks’ ownership and upside u had to be brave to fade him.
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Taranto this year:
-2 scores below 110 (108 and 109)
-6 scores above 120
extremely high floor with high ceiling.
absolute perfect fallback C option every week if schedule permits.
I think im at the point where he'll be either VC or C every week, regardless of matchup.
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I wonder how many traded out Hollands to reach for an upgrade?
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all of us Yeo owners knew the risk. I still think it was a risk worth taking given his price and scoring upside. at least he didn't get injured mid-game, so we got the score and the nice price rise out of him. now we move on.
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Some thoughts/early lessons:
-Premiums with byes. Don't go there. Need them to seriously pop/outscore their price to justify it.
-Need to keep as much flexibility as possible in first 2-3 rounds for 'fix-ups', adding early bye premos adds headaches/limits trade flexibility
-We
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24hrs till we kick off.
Won’t lie, my balls are tingling.
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Of the current players available, who are your Top 6 FWDs from here?
No speculating on DPPs.
Heeney
Powell
Zorko
Flanders
Then?
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Wardlaw BE = 37
What’s a realistic range of scores for him this week? 40-65?
In that range he’d go up in price between 4-21k.
You can probably afford to wait a week if u have other plans.
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Buying "under-priced" premiums, or, obtaining "value" is a concept that has now been adopted by all and sundry playing
#AFLFantasy
. I think it is hard to now get an edge by exclusively adopting that approach as everyone is doing it, to varying degrees.
I think an under-adopted
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The most fascinating price point for me in
#AFLFantasy
this year:
Warner 785k
Cerra 780k
Rozee 780k
Serong 777k
Newcombe 775k
Butters 764k
Green 752k
Berry 746k
Highly likely at least 1-2 of them breakout and get to 100ish. Unlikely they all do. Who ya got?
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Potential Implications of Parish injury:
-Zerrett goes nuclear?
-Setterfield back in guts?
-Stringer a sneaky POD cheap fwd?
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Sharp the latest example of holding on to a cash cow for just that bit too long
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Essendon highest CBA's this yr:
Parish ❌
Merrett
Setterfield ❌
Shiel ❌
I suspect one of Hobbs or Stringer might be the biggest beneficiaries. Caldwell and Perkins might see a bump too.
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You know you’re an
@AFLFantasy
tragic when your first thought is “how many fantasy points is that?!”
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Most fantasy leagues activate this setting. Needs to be introduced into the Classic game as well. Mills can get replaced by a sub irl, we should get the emerg score.
RT if you agree.
Medi sub for Fantasy. Thoughts? <40% GT get the emergency score?
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game respects game
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Testing out the
@MoreirasMagic
price projector. Worth a play.
If Finn scores 60, 69, 71, 60, 78, he'll still make 90k in the first 5 weeks.
If Hollands scores the same he'll make 170k. Granted not as likely to score that
The rookies really do generate cash much much faster.
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Some value guys I like:
-Short: Priced at 77.
-Oliver: Priced at 84
-Green: Priced at 94
-McKercher: Priced at 68
-Fisher: Priced at 75
-Stewart: Priced at 84
-Sicily: Priced at 83
-Sexton: Priced at 58
Some still have a high BE so can wait but if you can't get up to the big
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A lot of faux-humility on
#AFLFantasy
Twitter.
“Had a good round but a long way to go and anything can happen! Good luck all! 🙌💪🙏”
(As they post 2650 for the 5th week running etc)
I’m not buying it.
Would love to see some bloody smack talk amongst the contenders. 🤣
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Calling it now.
2025 will be the year of the discounted player. I think there will be more 'value' on offer than ever before and as such our starting teams will be more similar than ever.
2025 Blueprint already taking shape.
Docherty
Mills
Coleman
Sicily
Oliver
Parish
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There are 5 Mids this yr with the combination of:
80%+ TOG
80%+ CBA's
1.10+ PPM
Green
Serong
Merrett
Steele
and......?
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Starting Squad Lesson 🧵
1/ There is v.little to be gained from going quite unique with your starting team. All you do is carry the risk of being on an island if your unique picks get injured, dropped or don't breakout etc.
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In the 3 games where Matt Kennedy has had at least 55% CBA's he's gone 91, 97 and 95.
Currently priced at 76.
Are you game?
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Pretty amazing how we all missed Sam Darcy in
#AFLFantasy
0.2% owned in the top 10K for one of the best cash cows of the season.
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With Matthew Johnson's scoring 99, his new price will be 483k and his new BE will be 16. I was planning to trade him this week to raise some cash for an upgrade but it'll be hard to justify doing that now with potentially another 50k+ to be made over the next fortnight.
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Highest scoring FWDS over the Last 5:
Taranto: 126
Rozee: 116
Gulden: 113
Dunkley: 112
Macrae: 110
Butters: 106
Cogs: 101
Believe it or not, Macrae has 0% ownership in the top 100. An amazing POD opportunity given his ceiling.
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Matty Rowell
K:H
2020: 0.77
2021: 0.63
2022: 1.1
2021: 1.57
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It took some guts to roll with the 3 Ruck strategy. Things have panned out utterly perfectly for those that did.
Gawn the highest ave ruck.
When Grundy on bye Xerri did 107 and Gawn 149.
When Gawn on bye Xerri did 126 and Grundy 142.
Then coming out of the byes, Soldo gets
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Sharp + 36k to get to Tom Green is absolutely wild.
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Everyone knows about the elements of skill and luck when it comes to consistent highly ranked finishes in fantasy.
The 3rd element is sheer perseverance. Ie, not having a big whinge and giving up when things don’t go your way for a round or two.
Stick with it.
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Absolute weapon
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There's still a few highly drafted mids we'll have as downgrade targets at some stage:
Wardlaw
Tsatas
Clark
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Rozee, Butters, JHF
Petracca, Oliver, Viney
Green, Cogs, Kelly
Serong, Brayshaw, Young
Heeney, Erroll, Warner
Cripps, Walsh, Cerra
Bont, Libba, Treloar
Rowell, Noah, Touk
Neal, Dunks, McGlugg
JDG, Daicos, Mitchell
who ya got?
Is it the best midfield trinity in the AFL?
Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis brilliant tonight in huge midfield performances from all of them. The perfect trio who complement each other's traits.
@AFLcomau
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Sheezel cooking. Two juicy matchups still coming up. Who got on?
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kinda cool seeing J.Cameron as one of the top scoring FWDs. Kids may not realise there was a time where many of the top scoring
#AFLFantasy
fwds were KPFs. In the mid 2000s a fwd line of Riewoldt, Pav, Brown, Lucas etc wasn't unusual.
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humble suggestion for all content creators out there. maybe i'm on my lonesome here, but I have v.little interest in how your team went on the weekend. rather than spending 10mins telling us about your team performance, get straight to the juicy stuff.
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Daicos seriously demands the ball. Even when it's not in the team's interest. Screams for those lateral 10m kicks. Clearly a directive to put the ball into his hands where possible, but he prob overdoes the asking.
#observablethirst
#AFLFantasy
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@RalphyHeraldSun
just another issue with the current system that completely compromises the draft. how on earth does a compo pick far exceed what a player would net in a trade?
furthermore, remember when the AFL cockblocked the Crows trying to do the same with Crouch to the Saints to try and
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Halfback/'quarterback' types against Pies this year:
Whitfield: 137
NWM: 122
Zorko: 102
Amon: 113
Houston: 119
I suspect 100% of Daicos owners will put the VC on him this week but Nick Martin might be the better option......
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Potential upcoming random bullets:
-Fyfe rest/sub
-Yeo rest
-Marshall/Steele sub vs North if game is done early 😵💫
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@AFL
I am formally applying for a Priority Pick for my
#AFLFantasy
team.
I look forward to your response.
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Serong
Dunks
Lloyd
Sheldrick
Young
Smith
and awaiting on rumours about DCam.
I must say, we've had it pretty good for a while now. Byes were good to us. The bullets were gonna come eventually.
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Good luck trying to pick 'the top 6' DEFENDERS.
Dawson + Doc you'd think are locks
Daicos
Sicily
Ziebell
Ryan
Young
Lloyd
Daniel
Dale
Sinclair
Duggan
Stewart
Redman
Whitfield
Sheezell
are all there or thereabouts and capable of going on 5-6 game epic scoring runs.
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the problem with fans is that they only think about things from their fandom perspective. Most AFL players have a v.short career, this is their livelihood, they need to optimise for financial security. Massimo is not only well within his right to take a longer deal, it'd be
Disappointing news about Massimo. So we offered him a 1 year deal & that’s what he is worth. This is a weak effort Massimo considering Essendon has given you a shot at AFL level. He should’ve backed himself in at Essendon to improve & earn that longer contract you wanted
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List of guys who I think have had a great pre-season, nice role in the practice game and are potentially primed for breakout but are getting relatively low hype:
-Tom Powell
-Tanner Bruhn
-Sam Berry
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The Rd 15 Fwd Dilemma.
Highest ave FWDS:
Taranto-Rd 15
Gulden- Rd 12
Dunkley-Rd 12
Ziebell-Rd 15
Sheezell-Rd 15
Cogs-Rd 15
Rozee-Rd 15
Macrae-Rd 15
Butters-Rd 15
it's then a big drop off to the next tier.
Which non-rd 15 FWDS are you targeting as you enter the Rd 15 bye?
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