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@HPNfooty
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AFL stats and analysis (and other sports occasionally). Created by @arwon and @capitalcitycody . This account is almost always Sean.
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The time Geelong and St Kilda just faked a meaningless late season game and went to the pub should be much more famous than it is
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Evidence Based Decision Making Should Not Be Optional
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There's literally like eight arguments why this talent dilution/lack of depth argument against the number of teams, or adding more, makes no sense
“I think we got it wrong going from 16 to 18 teams... I just don’t think the depth’s there."
Tom Rockliff has called for the AFL to go back to a 16 team competition.
READ HERE:
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Learn about the power law of talent distribution, crusty footyheads. We're already into the long tail, the next 800 guys outside the league are indistinguishable from the bottom few of hundred on lists within it
This is an insane take, if you spread the top talent across twenty teams and topped up the bottom 5% of every list with players not currently on an AFL list the game would be indistinguishable from what it is currently.
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Side that's eschewed contested footy and clearances in favour of a successful second layer pressure and turnover game, that's mostly fielded reactive rucks. Not really a surprise they'd be outliers.
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[Statistics waiting room]
Me: [chanting] xScore, xScore-
Other punters: xScore, XSCORE
Analyst: [pounding her clipboard] XSCORE, XSCORE, XSCORE!
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The most valuable players in the AFL? Gulden and Daicos leading the best crop of young guns in years
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@fromthe_topdeck
That reads as old fashioned image editing to me, I think that crowd is a real photo?
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Attempting to figure out drawing power for AFL teams as away team in Melbourne.
I calculated the average away crowd in Melbourne for each team against each host since 2000, and how much above the lowest-drawing opponent they are.
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Is Caleb Serong the most valuable player in the AFL? Introducing 2021’s PAPLEY projections
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Probably be worth someone with access finding out how many of them are in Hobart, how many are in Launceston, and how many just chucked them ten bucks because why not?
A new
@AFL
team that can sign 40k prospective members in a few hours - years before they join the competition - might need a ground that holds more than 23,000, even in a small state.
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Tim Kelly is the best player (so far) in 2019 (and some other fun stuff)
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We've been covered by ABC Grandstand!
Go long or go home: How NBA tactics are changing how, or where, AFL teams kick for goal (PIC:AAP):
#AFL
@JCoventry
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Pace and Space in the AFL – Will the long bomb transform footy?
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Shanghai isn’t an AFL expansion attempt – it’s much more interesting than that
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Has the AFL’s talent pool become more diluted over time?
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If you're relying on a free kick out of a last minute rolling tackle fest you've already lost
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"This is the way that sport is going" (floating fixtures being set part way through the season) doesn't seem to be, uh, true?
"People are going to have to adapt...this is how sport is going."
Richo and Sam disagree on how the AFL plans its fixtures 👉
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The Big Big Sound – a non-exhaustive list and history of the moment of Grand Final week 2019
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How late can the 2020 AFL season restart?
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@Devon_OnEarth
@mnurkic
@BriannaWu
The Neo Assyrians and Nebuchadnezzar breathing a sigh of relief here at not being called out
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Thanks for sticking with HPN over the Trade and Free Agency period (to date). We are going to roll out a complete summary article in the coming days, and will continue to update until the start of next year.
Also coming - draft coverage.
Stay tuned.
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Rohan getting both recognised and booed by the Swans fans is a level of lore knowledge you probably don't expect
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The correct plural is Gathers Round
EXCLUSIVE: The AFL is planning to have three Gather Rounds when the new Tasmanian team comes in.
@tommorris32
#9News
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(for assistant coaches, all of whom have been screwed by the AFL never giving them back their pre covid pay levels)
The AFL is strongly considering granting Sydney and GWS Giants a cost of living allowance, with the Harbour City ranked second to Hong Kong as the world’s most unaffordable.
✍:
@SamLandsberger
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The AFL free agency class of 2019 and the “secret compensation formula”
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The logo of Heeney and Greene's footy camps organisation appears to be a sentient football kicking another, smaller, equally sentient football
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Should the AFL risk a restraint of trade lawsuit in order to generate content
“What it does do is counter what the AFL wanted in free agency, the player movement system..."
Should the AFL limit the length of contract extensions?
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Some news: This year HPN are heading to Sydney to cover the draft LIVE. We will try to cover the bits that slip through the cracks.
Also, the final HPN Consensus Phantom Draft will come out Friday morning.
Stay tuned.
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Some unsolicited advice to Carlton on trading pick 1, as guided by Footballistics
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Make NSW and Qld teams you cowards
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Toby Nankervis is -106 in career free kicks by himself. Dusty -150. Liam Baker -40. Shai Bolton -73. Kamdyn McIntosh -52. Jack Graham -33.
Should the AFL explain Richmond's massive free kick disparity?
@rohan_connolly
and
@rodneyeade26
discuss whether the AFL needs to come out and explain the ‘massive differential’ in Richmond’s staggering free kick tally.
FULL EP 🗣️ :
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West Coast lost two of the best ever clearance players and got better at clearances.
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Timing Is Everything: St Kilda take a step back after a couple of steps forward
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Clayton Oliver is the most valuable player in the AFL – an introduction to 2018 PAPLEY
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Check back later for the daily wrap but in the mean time just have a squiz at the balance of this
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Yeah, we did
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Good week to have a bye and watch it unfold from the sidelines
Exclusive
The AFL has instructed its umpires to immediately shorten the “reasonable time” component of holding the ball in a significant & rare in-season interpretation change. Clubs were on Tuesday night sent a memo notifying of the shift. More soon at
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With Sloane retiring, our chances of hearing the word "arse" read out on Brownlow night have been reduced
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The Rising Star race is going down to the wire, but how much does it matter in the long run?
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AFL bye discourse seems to operate in a superposition where having a bye before a game is both better or worse than not having one, despite the analytical answer seeming to be "neither"
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Has the fans association ever taken a stance on whether they think MCC and AFL Members getting not much less than half the stadium is good? Because fiddling at the edges of relatively small numbers of "corporates" isn't going to get you very far for expanding club member access
We are continuing our push to get more competing club fans to the AFL grand final. We are also launching our 2024 Fans Survey today to hear your feedback. Complete and go into the draw to win a personalised video message from an AFL player of your choice.
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How long can North keep being the surprise packets of the competition?
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Probably a good time to announce the that HPN Trade Calculators have been updated for this offseason. Find out the value of a Horne-Francis or a Jackson right here.
More content coming soon.
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Sam Lloyd heads to a club which Brian Taylor hopefully won’t call as much in 2019
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Never a better time to tank, just loan out half their cap for a couple years for the picks
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Maynard getting booed is how you know this crowd is full of every sicko keen footy fan in the state and not a bunch of casuals who wouldn't recognise him or know the whole situation there.
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Port are the best side in the comp against weak opponents and they’re about as good as North against the good teams
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Two successive sellouts at Manuka and almost triple that Hobart crowd, but now there's no more AFL in Canberra until August!
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The idea of a single league wide bye weekend in the AFL is going to become popular consensus almost the same time as it becomes impossible to implement
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Banner looked like it was workshopped for the "what counts as a flag" nuffy debate
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The 2017 AFL season is really, really good, so why are we being distracted from it?
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-fringe players empirically contribute more than they used to, everyone does stuff now rather than a few stars hogging the stats
-maybe a thinner talent pool would mean more dominant stars again and be good, actually
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Do People Underrate The 2004 Port Adelaide Side? Introducing HPN Team Statistics
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Tinfoil: they keep some rules subjective and vibes based so they can generate more content
are the strips 10m? He's run at least 20m if so. Of course, players do this 30 times a game
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A bit of coverage of our PAV system of player valuation in the West Australian
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According to HPN, these are the 10 most valuable players in the AFL. Both 2016 grand finalists have two players on the list
#AFLTrades
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The timeline here does absolutely vital context. It shows the Eagles scrambled a bunch of snaps at goal in 4Q that were either smothered or fell short, and the volume of those chances is what pushed total xscore in their favour.
#AFLEaglesDons
Final xScores:
WCE 71 from expected 89.9 (+0 rushed)
ESS 76 from expected 79.8 (+1 rushed)
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HPN is back! This year look for daily recap posts, plus some issues worth exploring in more depth. Will try to swing a deadline day liveblog as well. And - if we can work it out - something else special.
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Lions standing there like this and Gold Coast can't remember the fatality inputs
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🔔📢The HPN Trade Calculator has been updated for 2019📢🔔
Check it out!
Full post to come later today.
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I think a fun question is what's the furtherest back premiership team that would actually beat North Melbourne
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