Cody Atkinson
@CapitalCityCody
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Write about sport (mostly AFL) at @abcsport . Music and culture elsewhere. Ehhh, that's good I like your monitoring. Helped write #Footballistics .
The Capital
Joined April 2013
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Maybe the most exciting league tackle I've seen. Wild stuff at the Knockout.
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You aren't going to see a more entertaining bit of fielding today than this from Zimbabwe at the
#T20WorldCup
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Huge shout out to
@rustyjacko
for his well-deserved Walkley Award nomination for The Persecution of Robert Muir.
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I know practically no-one cares about my opinion or the subject, but I will find it hard to take the AFMAs (footy Walkleys) seriously in the future given what happened this week.
A real shame considering some of those who won this year and in the past.
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The cricket cops just told this guy to stop eating moths.
I don't know where I stand on this.
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They trialed anti-density rules post stoppage in the VFL preseason a few years back.
It was an absolute disaster. Quarters went super long and it didn't really change anything footywise.
6-6-6 has had basically no real impact. It's servicing nostalgia aesthetics.
Former Swans, Dogs and Suns coach Rodney Eade has a radical way of reducing congestion in the AFL.
@Robbo_heraldsun
breaks down the idea with the coach who invented the “flood”.
STORY:
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IMO this is the best AFL finances piece
@arwon
and I put together. Not sure if anyone has had a crack at quantifying the impact of "blockbuster" games, but here it is.
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I don't know all the details of the incident involving Dustin Martin circulating right now, and don't want to publicly speculate on the circumstances.
But being good at football - or anything - doesn't give you an excuse for poor or illegal behaviour.
Dustin Martin, who might be the greatest player ever, facing criticism for an incident that was 6 years ago at a private function because someone felt special spreading a video.
No wonder he’s sick of living in Melbourne.
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This week
@arwon
and I worked with
@crow_data_sci
to look at what are good kicks. It's a question that's long fascinated us, and deserved a deeper look.
Thanks to Liam for his hard work and patience.
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IMO this is about the best piece we've done.
Huge thanks to Callum Wilkie for being generous with his time. It was meant to be a 5 to 10 min chat that stretched to 30 mins. Could have written three times as much stuff tbh - a fascinating story.
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Justin Langer has never scored a ton in England wearing long sleeves...wait, I'm being handed one of several photos...
Usman Khawaja dismissed early because he wore long sleeves which showed he wasn’t committed, says JL. Can we get a commentator who doesn’t have petty personal grudges against half the team please
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Turns out Milk Boi isn't the thirstiest dude at GWS
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⠀ ⠀ ⠀ 🤠
🏉🏉🏉
🏉 🏉 🏉
👇 🏉🏉 👇
🏉 🏉
🏉 🏉
👢 👢
howdy. i'm the sheriff of fix the stats part of your website already
Love footy and tweeting about footy?
Join our team for the 2020 season! 👇
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I don't know what just happened but I think I just went head to head with Ross Lyon?
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"These are records that have lasted hundreds of years", where hundreds of years means less than 60 years.
There's a real discussion how much counting kicks actually matters, not this stuff.
Low energy, low quality content. Would not watch again.
"How that is a disposal in this game, is an absolute joke!" 🌋
@kanecornes
says the change to count play ons from kick-ins is 'distorting' disposal numbers, after Nic Martin tied the Essendon record for most touches in a game.
#9AFLSFS
| Nine & 9Now 🖥️
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How time is spent in the average men's Grand Slam match.
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This week we spent several hours watching a footy game from 1998 and one from last week.
This article is about statistics, errors, measurement, Paul Salmon, Matt Rowell and clearances.
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There's a few reasons I wrote this piece. Most should be obvious, but I'll expand a little.
First of all, watching hours of highlights of Dangerfield is very easy work. He deserves recognition as one of the greatest players in the time I've been watching footy. Pure joy to watch
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This started with
@JeremiahTBrown
suggesting last year we should look at the wing kings and really kicked off when I found Ed Langdon's LinkedIn page.
A fair bit of work went into this one.
Spreading your wings — the tactical change that has the Demons on the attack
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I (and others) spent the best part of a year researching the entire draft/trade history of the AFL for
#footballistics
, and this is literally the opposite to what the data shows.
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This week we dove relatively deep into centre clearances, how much they are really worth and how teams move the ball away from the middle.
To do this of course we focused on West Coast.
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This week,
@arwon
and I look at why kicking it backwards is one of the best attacking weapons in football.
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Hidden in last week's piece (but not really) was this analysis of whether 6-6-6 had increased centre bounce scoring.
The answer? No. It hasn't really.
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Wrote this at the pub surrounded mostly by emotional Collingwood fans in the two hours after the game. We're pretty happy with it.
This is obviously it for the 2023 season. Good note to finish on. Thanks to everyone for reading our work this year.
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There was a lot of hand wringing about the value of Opening Round up north, especially considering the NRL is back in the country.
Thursday night's AFL game got about a million more "viewers" on FTA than the NRL game against it. It also got about 0.5m more than the Vegas games.
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I agree - the ball sort of magically hovers off a spot near the bottom of his leg...WAIT A SECOND
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The last month/six months/year have been a struggle, but even struggles have good bits.
Extremely grateful that ABC lets Sean and I contribute, and that people read it (and HPN). Also stoked that I have an engaging, rewarding job.
You just have to tune out the crap sometimes.
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Australia have just taken the first set from the world number 1 ranked Canadian side in the beach volleyball. Upset could be on.
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When the person who wins the biggest prize does so with a history like that and some pretty poor work (especially written work) in the last 12 months you have to question the worth of the entire endeavor. That's a real shame for those who actually deserve recognition.
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WELCOME BACK FOR ANOTHER SEASON!
Season previews are always the hardest to write. We've done a brief outline on some gameplay trends to expect, and have 100ish words on each club and a player to watch in the viz.
This season shapes as one of the most fascinating in the AFL era, which means predicting who will lift the premiership trophy is fraught with danger, writes Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.
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It was an honour just to be nominated. Congrats to Fox Sports.
Huge shout out to the fantastic
@Siren_Sport
and
@davymark1
for their work in also getting nominated.
Next time
@jacksongs
,
@arwon
,
@JCoventry
.
The award for innovation in sports media was introduced to the
#SportAUSMediaAwards
in 2020 to recognise new ways the media is connecting audiences with sport. Our finalists include entries from
@ABCSport
,
@Siren_Sport
and
@FoxSportsAUS
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This week we look at the art of the kick-in, and what Adelaide is doing a bit differently. We were again driven to break the phase down in a newish way publicly.
The first draft was a bit Nietzsche heavy, and all that's left of that is a deliberate misquote.
How the Crows have used the kick-in to surge into AFL finals contention
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This week
@arwon
and I take a look at how the Dogs have adjusted to a slow start, the journey of Bevo and how parts of the media treat coaches.
Our thanks to Bevo for the insight, especially in the face of pretty detailed questions at 11pm postgame.
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This week
@arwon
and I looked at the past and present of AFL memberships, and what being a member actually means.
Huge thanks to
@footyindustryAU
for his tireless work in this space.
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Hey, it's been a while.
This week we looked at how ground size doesn't really matter in the AFL anymore. Both the data and eye test on this seem pretty clear now.
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@stevesmithffx
"This is clock management like you've never seen."
"Never seen it."
Ben G
"Actually what I was trying to tell you was they were trying to let them score."
*crickets*
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*extremely Microsoft Paperclip voice*
It looks like you are using a statistic to disparage the value of statistics. Would you like help with your logical fallacy?
@m0nty
Probably 90% of the 30 odd callers we had this morning agreed with me Paul but thanks.
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Can't believe I have to say this but I really don't care about code warz. I regularly go to sports of pretty much every variety. I've written about somewhere around 30 or 40 sports - most in depth, some in passing.
Happy if you guys want to get into it, whatever works for you.
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@BrettSprigg
Tom Harley is a guy that immediately springs to mind.
Especially considering he was the drought-breaking captain for the Cats.
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I've posted this week's ABC piece already so will save it for the last tweet in this mini-thread, but I'm really excited to be a part of the current team doing stuff on ABC online.
The sport writing is absolutely killing it right now, my own involvement excluded.
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The bigger question here is if he's done the research and found if he's going after the person who created and spread the image, or a mere middleman arbitrarily?
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This week
@arwon
and I try to unwrap what happened at the AFL Draft and some bigger trends at play.
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@VinceRugari
I'll go one step further - pretty sure there's a strong relationship between low scoring and close margins.
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This week a look at how the Brisbane Lions are contributing to the death of the spearhead. This goes into some depth on how the Lions are turning convention on its head, and proving old heads foolish.
Thanks to Chris Fagan and Adam Kingsley on this one.
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@stevesmithffx
finally a shot that he doesn't want to take and actually should
Mitch Creek is one of THEM.
(This isn't me messaging him btw, someone sent me the screenshot)
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So for the last decade or so I've run a sports website (with my buddy Sean) called Hurling People Now (
@HPNfooty
).
It's mostly dormant these days, bar a couple of bursts of activity every few months.
Last month I saw my first game of top level Hurling live.
It was amazing.
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I guess poor imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Imagine....It's less than 12 points the difference with a quarter to go - the stakes are high, there's no room for error, mistakes will be costly, and everyone is fatigued.
We've teamed up with
@championdata
to assess the clutch players around the league.
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We chatted to Chris Fagan after their loss last week and a small clip about effort got replayed a fair bit.
This week's piece looks at what we (and Fagan) see as the real issues that have faced Brisbane in 2024.
H/T to
@figuringfooty
and
@WheeloRatings
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Personally I reckon this Jordan Dawson grab against the Dogs was the best Mark of the Year. Textbook mark right there.
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Last week
@arwon
leaned over to me while we were at the footy and asked about the reasons the Cats didn't make the finals.
This article is a distillation of that conversation, absent the Bombers mate who could care less post the GWS loss.
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This may be obvious from the outside, but on
#AFLLionsFreo
they said that teams that apply pressure do well.
Since 2017, teams who accrue more pressure acts in a game go on to win 44% of the time.
Pressure acts are a sign that you are working more def, and probs losing.
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*record scratch*
*freeze frame*
Yep, that's me. You're probably wondering how I ended up in a meme from three years ago.
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This is why I'm opposed to no consent player trades in the AFL.
There's a better argument about the draft and equalisation, but I'm increasingly thinking that it might need to be looked at in the medium to long term.
for all the money these guys make, I always thought it was kinda bullshit we could just be like "hey, your job is in Sacramento now. You have 48 hours"
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This week:
@EmlynBreese
contacted us with an idea to look at how well teams perform after coming off short rest. Was a pleasure to work with him on it.
@alittlefitness
provided tons of clarity from an "inside footy" context - as he does his analysis work.
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Meet Len "Booby" Mills. Military veteran. Feared boxer. State representative footballer.
And the tallest VFL player for over 40 years. I uncovered this photo of him while researching this week's piece that shows just how tall he is in relative terms.
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This is terrible analysis. Scoring is up about 4 points per team on 2019.
D50-I50 dropped massively in round 2 to about prior levels.
All of it is way too noisy to tell so early, and certainly isn't "significant" yet. This is a bad watch/take.
Has there been a rule more impactful to the betterment of the game than the standing the mark rule?
Catch Damo with
@barrettdamian
as he takes a deep dive on it's impact in the first two rounds of the season ⬇️
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At worst (injury/externalities aside), Naughton projects to be one of the best marking targets/KPFs in the league in the coming half decade. IMO he's underrated leaguewide. He's the piece they should build around.
Generally long term deals have worked out in favour of the club.
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BTW walking into a bookstore and looking at words you've bloody well written is a pretty good feeling.
As was relocating the book to a better spot on the shelf.
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Barty's decision is an acknowledgement that her career was a success from the only judge that matters: herself.
It's a celebration of a career of someone who gave it their all, and achieved greatness. External validation is not always required.
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Ron Barassi was arguably the most influential figure for modern Australian Football. His impact cannot be overstated.
Vale Ron Barassi ❤
The AFL icon has died, aged 87.
Read more:
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Perfect, no notes. This...this is Moneyball for me 🤑 🏈 🤑 🏈 🤑 🏈
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This is probably the big gap that I've observed between clubs and the media recently. In my convos raw kick and handball counts have almost no value when breaking down a game. This stuff is somewhere between pretty and extremely irrelevant.
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@Aaron_Torres
Did your research include the fact that NBL sides went 7-1 against NCAA Div 1 sides last year? Or the fact that a couple of NBL sides (including the Breakers) were competitive against NBA sides last preseason?
Or even actually watching a game or two to check the quality?
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This week we started doing a footy piece but ended up creating something pretty novel - an average height index for Australian males to before federation. We think that the approach and use of sources might be a first.
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Big day tomorrow. Very good (IMO) feature coming out and...
the band I joined in the second quarter of GWS-STK is playing tomorrow night. First gig in...15 or 20 years? Found out I was on bass on Monday.
Band is real good too. I'm definitely a weak link.
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That was an incredibly interesting game. I don't think either side feels great after that one. Pies get the week off, but those structural issues poked their head up again esp when the ground dried up.
Melbourne have to win three straight and really haven't solved the i50 setup.
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This week we look at the rise of the Dogs. Thanks go to a lot of people.
Cheers Bevo so being so forthright postgame (I'll link). Cheers to
@Adrian_Poly
for guiding me on the Dogs fan mind. Thanks to
@RestingPlayers
for noticing the nuts CB/CBA spread.
Thanks to you for reading
The
@westernbulldogs
have emerged as flag contenders this season, but it's the manner in which they've stormed to a 6-0 start that intrigues. 🏉
Their use of the handball is just one stat worth highlighting...
AFL data freaks will enjoy this write-up 👉
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Love footy and tweeting about footy?
Join our team for the 2020 season! 👇
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Secondly - there seems to be an obsession with judging the careers of players as "successes" or "failures" in certain corners of the media/internet. The worst comes when the flag element is brought in.
Winning a flag is a goal for every player, but it shouldn't be the only one.
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Some brief thoughts about Blues-Tigers after one partially interrupted watch (our basketball team won).
Tigers look to be extremely corridor-centric this year - looking to get inside at all costs and selling out to force the long kick down the line. The Nank one is a good ex.
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@arwon
I reckon there's something borderline unethical about an anonymous account making identified claims where it might affect their livelihood. We don't know their quals, background etc etc.
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@RudiEdsall
@Adrian_Poly
I guess what I'm saying Adrian is that you should draw the team/squad up and we should take pot shots from the outer.
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Stoked with the reaction for the ABC piece
@JCoventry
,
@arwon
and I did on the rule changes. It's good to see people engaging with both the data and concepts. What we didn't add is that stoppages were also up during the trial.
Evidence is limited, but change case is absent.
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Since the GF I've developed a couple of tools that have been kicking around for a while. This is the cooler one - how much "value" an AFL player is predicted to deliver over the next five years.
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The AFL is doing a stats survey, and seeking views on what they provide.
A good time to ask for data in more depth that's easier to view. If I had to suggest something, event by event game logs and access to CIA.
LAlso some good recognition for
@MatterOfStats
and
@SquiggleAFL
.
Have your say on how the AFL offers statistics in the future 📈
Share your feedback here:
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I went to the Canberra International this year and ran into an old co-worker who was volunteering. Narelle complained that each day and night was running super late.
I was curious so I had a bit of a look into the reasons why. The main reason was a shock.
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This week's piece is a look at Nat Fyfe.
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Huge thanks to Harry for his time on this one, and to GWS for being so accommodating.
I reckon it's the best thing we've done this year.
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This was once the case but the use of language has clearly evolved to include verse as in oppose in a sporting context. The Macquarie Dictionary has included this def since 2009
Language shouldn't be used as a gatekeeper where the meaning of the word used is clear.
It’s spread from the AFL to international cricket commentary. A couple of dictionary definitions:
Verse, as a noun, means metrical composition (‘pages of verse’) and as a verb means to instruct.
Versus is a preposition that means ‘against’ (especially in legal and sports use).
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Do we need to be doing skinfolds for amateur junior footballers?
Should junior footy players have better regs around collection of basic demographic information?
Answers are pretty easy for me.
"The world's gone mad."
Matthew Lloyd and Kane Cornes react as Caroline Wilson exclusively reveals the AFL has told clubs skinfold tests will no longer be allowed to be conducted for any athletes eligible for pathways programs.
#9FootyClassified
| Live on 9Now 🖥️
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@Gougoodthing64
@LeighRMatthews
Actually, she is playing Australian Football, the actual proper name for the sport and has been since 1905.
Aussie Rules, like AFL, is a nickname for the sport.
But imagine correcting one of the greatest players of the sport on what he calls it.
And getting it wrong.
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This week - a look at what has moved the Swans to the head of the pack.
Huge thanks to Sean and especially
@EmlynBreese
on this one. If you don't follow him by now you should.
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@SeamusDunlevie
@RudiEdsall
And aren't we all Jack Vineys being pushed over by Rudi's Tom Stewart in his refusal to talk about how the real Tom Stewart pushed over the real Jack Viney?
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This is a very good read. Horn is right - Cornes' biggest skill is his ability to work hard. Most can't do that, but the value of that skill is unclear.
IMO KC lacks the rhetorical flourish of the best US hot takes - the conviction of argument and ability to sell his views.
This week’s column is on Kane Cornes and footy’s hot take furnace
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Late last night,
@arwon
and I broke down how the game was won and lost, and what it meant more broadly.
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What are the chances of playing in the AFL if you are a junior player?
Turns out it's about 0.2%.
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