Tom Crowley
@TomisCrowley
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Federal Political Reporter @abcnews | Views do not reflect those of the ABC | Formerly Grattan, Treasury, The Daily Aus | [email protected]
Parliament House, Canberra
Joined December 2012
Wish I had time to join in the festival of cricket opeds today, but this is about as far as I got
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This is so astonishing I almost can’t believe it’s true. Merge Ireland, Italy and Poland into an ultracatholic megacountry and it’s still twice as secular as California.
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If you're wondering how young people are responding to the Coalition's super housing policy, the answer is. not well. So far not a single positive comment in response to our story. Most remarkable is how many are about the specific policy rather than partisan.
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On the Federal Govt saying it has spent more in JobKeeper for Vic than for any other state: that is **the point** of JobKeeper - it existed for lockdowns. It’s like complaining you’ve spent more on medicine for a sick person and refusing to pay the next time they’re sick.
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This’ll be an overly sentimental tweet. But fuck it was nice to all enjoy something together, wasn’t it? A feeling of community we shouldn’t take for granted. For a few weeks we all just loved the Tillies together and it was simple and beautiful. Long may it continue.
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In today’s episode of The Spirit Of Cricket: why can’t the rules be changed now they inconvenience me? Great gear.
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Covid is exhausting. We're frustrating, directionless, trapped in old arguments. Our new Grattan report tries to break out of that cycle. We get as specific as we can about what our way forward actually looks like: how many jabs? How soon? How can it happen? Here's a thread 1/.
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So someone who got COVID on Tuesday before 6pm was required to figure out, within a day, while sick, that the phone voting system advertised for covid isolation was not in fact available to them because *checks notes* postal vote apps were still open for 24h when they got sick.
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Some of these pork barrelling grants from The Age's research are wild. The actual government buying ice compression gear for Skevs old boys, Jesus wept.
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Usman Khawaja dismissed early because he wore long sleeves which showed he wasn’t committed, says JL. Can we get a commentator who doesn’t have petty personal grudges against half the team please.
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Australian test captaincy being passed on in the traditional fashion of a remorseful press conference.
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We live on the land of the oldest continuous traditions on the planet. I will never understand why that’s not the thing every Australian wants to celebrate, rather than celebrating the act that precipitated the vandalism of so much of that tradition.
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The closest thing to nirvana is watching the big bash. Not a single thought in my head. Wells 1 (2) c&b Kuhnemann. Who are these people? Who cares. Here comes 57yo Dre Russ.
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The Age Editorial strikes a chord and is fairly measured. But what does it actually propose? ‘We’ve had enough. You must… maybe allow picnics and remove curfew if safe.’ There really isn’t much else we do. Frustration doesn’t have to be constructive, but imo an editorial does.
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This from Nathan Buckley is one of the most backward and appalling things I’ve heard in football. It’s not remotely appropriate for an employer to seek to sack an employee because their wife has moved for a job. Gross mindset, awful stuff, and surely an IR issue in any workplace?
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So @MattCowgill updated his chart on JobSeeker, which I’m posting bc he’s in Twitter exile. It’s a brutal picture: after a tiny window of paying the unemployed above the poverty line, we’ve sent them hurtling back down below it. Not good!
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Thanks for your email. I am out of the office indefinitely in the event I need to travel to Tokyo for the Olympics.
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Getting in before the hot take storm: Albo getting covid doesn't really matter because the campaign in general matters so much less than the people who follow it closely think it does.
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The guard formed around JL by the old players has jokerfied me. Clear as day from that doco that the man was temperamentally unfit to manage a workplace. Which was his job. When will sportsmen of a bygone era realise screaming at people is not how you build a workplace culture.
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Amazing how easy it is to tear down a democratic norm. Decades of Cabinet Ministers resigning for much less, then one government decides ‘nah let’s not resign for anything ever’ and bang, you’ve got press gallery journos *defending* the norm breaking. Wild, troubling stuff.
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And more. I've never seen a comment section like this. And this is the target demographic! Add in the long list of Liberal economic doyens who've panned it and I struggle to see who this plays well with. We know they didn't model it but did they even focus group test it?
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@DrDemography That's a pretty unfair comparison. She stepped down because of a concern the relationship directly conflicted with her role on a parliamentary committee. No such argument can be made about the Minister you're referring to.
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20 minutes since we posted this and our audience is already very keen on a leaders debate that young voters might actually watch. There are 350,000 of us over at @TheDailyAus, so what are you waiting for? @AlboMP @ScottMorrisonMP
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Some news from me: I’m joining the ABC’s federal politics team as a digital journalist. Sad to finish a truly special stint at The Daily Aus, but it’s a long-time dream to work for the public broadcaster and I’m itching to get started.
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One half of our leaders’ debate is in! Hope the PM will see some value in talking to a large audience of young voters. Can guarantee it’d reach a different audience to the TV networks, and it’s an audience that already feels politicians aren’t interested in talking to them!.
.@AlboMP's office has just confirmed that he will attend a youth-focused Leaders' Debate with @TheDailyAus. No word yet from PMO @ScottMorrisonMP . This is a chance for the leaders to show they care about young people. #auspol.
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Is the stadium in Cairns called Cazaly’s because it’s up there? Thanks everyone.
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In case you need reminding that cricket is an extreme sport. Honestly few things that would terrify me more than this
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Zero out of reach for two states now bc of extremely avoidable mistakes in our quarantine system. Awful it’s happened before we’ve got enough vaxxed. But the triumphalism of people who never believed in it and wanted it to fail, as hospitals in NSW approach capacity, is vile.
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Announcement! Stoked to be joining @TheDailyAus as a political journo in the new year. They've built a huge audience fast and I can't wait to get on board to contribute explainers, analysis and more. Sad to leave a job I love @GrattanInst but pretty excited about what's next.
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Desperately depressing to see ‘progressives’ of my generation ingest the propaganda of the nimbys who have denied them home ownership, spit it back out and plate it up as if it is some edgy capitalist critique. Building houses is trickle down economics now apparently. Jesus wept.
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I once read a cost benefit analysis written by consultants on the merits of hosting a major sporting event. It quantified ‘civic pride’ as worth $200m to the economy. And its ticket sale estimates assumed a crowd of 10k in Darwin to see a match between North Korea and Cameroon 🙃.
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The best thing I've gained from Twitter is @tfswebb radicalising me against all language snobbery, and it's not even close. I was absolutely holding onto residual pedantry from when I was an insufferable 15yo, but Tiger's patient advocacy converted me and I now cringe at it.
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Taking 6-7 on a Boxing Day debut to win the Ashes is literally the kind of thing you make up in your backyard when you’re a kid. Bloody hell.
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I'll start with the number, bc it'll inevitably be the focus: we need 80% of the country vaccinated, including 95% of over-70s, before we can safely relax our Covid stance and 'live with Covid'. Going lower than that is a gamble at best, or a calamity at worst. 2/.
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So fucking proud of our tiny team at @TheDailyAus this campaign. Here's a look at the content we've pulled off with one journo (me), one relentlessly sharp editor @BilliFitzSimons, two fearless leaders @zaraseidler1 and @sam_koslowski and our two video wizards.
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BUDGET THREAD: if you want to skip ahead while the Treasurer’s talking, here’s a hastily compiled Budget summary thread. Headline: govt really has changed its stripes.
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Underrated worst bit about this is 'think about what we saw in France', by which he means ANZAC memorials. 'Be like the diggers and play this ODI even if you have a bit of a niggle'. How much more evidence do we need that this bloke was temperamentally unfit to manage people.
i am absolutely certain that JL doesn’t actually exist - this man cannot be a real human being
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There's heaps more in the report. Please share! And talk to me, and to my 5 co-authors: @wfmackey, @AnikaStobart, @danielleiwood, @stephenjduckett, @BrendanCoates. We this gives you hope that there's a way out, and govts resolve to do what we need
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I should add – as always I’m happy to chat to any media outlets interested in hearing what our large audience of young people think about this policy and about the election in general. Get in touch!.
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But even 50 seems an eternity away now. Can we really get to 80? Well first: we *have* to. Failure is not an option if we want to avoid health calamity and escape restrictions. But second, we *want* to: 90% of us *want a vaccine*. Anti-vaxxers are loud, but not big enough. 9/
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Endlessly amusing to me that there are six federal politicians with hyphenated surnames and they’re all in the Greens. Any theories why? I feel like in the UK the double barrel has Tory aristocratic connotations but in Australia it has extremely Northcote energy.
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Me until yesterday: parks are great! Why don’t I spend more time in parks. Me from today: pub pub pub pub pub.
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Like seriously, in no workplace is it appropriate for a boss to try to sack someone *specifically because* of their mental health. That’s completely grotesque, yet here is Buckley openly admitting doing exactly that. Am I missing something??.
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They should be opening clinics everywhere: shopping centres, sporting events, places of worship, offices, schools. They should offer evenings, and home visits for those who struggle to find time or face mobility barriers. The sky should be the limit, but it isn't yet. 12/.
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Congrats to the Twitter mob, who apparently managed to bring down a democratic leader within the space of about half an hour yesterday, despite also being a tiny and unrepresentative sample of public opinion.
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The Greens’ idea:.* Govt develops 360k homes in 5yrs.* Some rented at a low rate.* Some sold via application at cost price.* Buyers must resell to govt at same price.* Preference to applicants with link to local area (school, work etc). Thoughts?.
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Last month has felt like the restless final hour of a long haul flight, spent staring groggily at the flight tracker. The plane has now landed and I’m pointlessly standing with my head pressed against the overhead locker even though I won’t be able to move for 20 mins.
#COVID19VicData: Yesterday there were 5 new cases & the loss of 3 lives reported. The 14 day rolling average is down in Metro Melb, stable in regional Vic, and the no. of cases with unknown source stable as we move to COVID Normal. More info: #COVID19Vic
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Pat Cummins lost the toss because of his wokeness, I’m guessing.
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Niki Savva’s book is heaving with weird anecdotes but this is I think the weirdest. Morrison and Frydenberg decided to watch a kids movie when they were locked down in the lodge together. I checked and their kids weren’t there. Just the fellas hangin out watchin some croods.
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This is maybe the funniest thing I have ever seen.
Great stat from the 360 boys - if Team A beats Team B, and you add up the wins and losses of Team A and Team B it’s 1-1. Even competition!!!!
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@timsout Parochial, fearful, fortress nation that has saved the lives of tens of thousands in its community. Entirely appropriate that we leave behind this phase, and we should have done so quicker with vaccines, but to describe it all in those terms is truly ghoulish. So disappointing.
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Happy (late) Harmony Day. Apropos of nothing, here’s a throwback to when I was in the public service and got ‘randomly’ picked for a photo shoot with one of the only other poc grads, and the photo was used with #indigenousemployment even though neither of us are indigenous 🙃
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BREAKING: in addition to the $804 tax cut and other changes reported today, the government will also exempt more low income earners from the Medicare levy. Plus Treasury says the package will be inflation and budget neutral:.
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That is sound like a very, very big win from Pocock in exchange for IR Bill. An independent assessment of JobSeeker adequacy every budget. When it finds it’s inadequate (as inevitably it will), the govt surely can’t ignore it. And people had a go at him for taking his time….
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Maybe some might want to take a gamble on 70, or 75. But you only get to play the game once: if you open up too early and realise you've made a mistake, the health, social, and economic costs are much bigger than they'd have been if you'd waited a little longer. 7/.
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The piece is here (with many more comments since I took these screenshots) just to prove I am very much not being selective:.
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Ffs that covid ad. ‘Hey young people, you know that horrible virus? The one you’ve spent months staying home to protect mostly older people from? An idea you supported more than old people did? The virus you’re not allowed to get vaccinated against yet? Look at how nasty it is!’.
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Just in time to celebrate the good news, here's an article from @stephenjduckett and me on Victoria's performance. Spoiler alert: it's good! We've achieved something pretty incredible, team.
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Someone has just reminded me of the concept of high school computer labs. Had totally memory holed them. What an extremely era-specific thing. You'd go in there like once a week for some 50yo to explain how to save a word doc to My Documents, but he could never find the folder.
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I’ve decided to start writing about footy! My new blog’s called Miracle on Graphs (lol get it) and I’m playing around with some interactive data viz - so far pretty basic. My first piece: what’s going on with the Lions’ kicking? Have a squiz.
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New data alert! I'm excited about this. Asked our audience about attitudes to wfh. I've been frustrated with patchy data on wfh preferences, esp the lack of data asking young people **why** they have the prefs they do. Very interesting results imo, check em out and pls share ⬇️.
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We can't delude ourselves that there's a middle ground: 'I don't like Zero Covid or rampant Covid, give me the middle'. It doesn't work that way – what we choose is how much *risk* of a very bad outcome we tolerate. Race to 80 so risk is low enough to get to normal. 21/.
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Schools are especially important for vaccinating kids quickly. Kids may not be at high risk themselves, but they spread covid, and we can't let schools become superspreader hotbeds. Pfizer for 12+ was approved recently, and Pfizer for 12- is in late stage trials. 13/.
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Having lived there for most of my life, I cannot describe the absolute shock of watching Kooyong fall. Never thought I’d see it. Extraordinary.
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There's pages and pages of fun on fast trains in our new report. But you're a busy person! Here are some highlights for you in a THREAD. If it whets your appetite, you'll find heaps more in the report.
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Truly incredible watching a politician try to post through confusing two Asian-Australians, one of whom is her opponent. It was literally filmed, everyone saw it. Surely you take the L.
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It’s NEW DATA time! I’m going to try to do this every week. Because fancy sampling and polling is fun but sometimes just asking tens of thousands of young people a question tells you something useful! So I’m going to do it more. This week: HUGE support for higher welfare 1/4
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Well that was a bit unusual. Fun morning on the couch, worth a look if you missed it!
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It's been such a long year I genuinely forgot about Miranda Devine setting the mob on a bullied child. 6 months ago!
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(retd hurt).
Woolworths $WOW CEO Brad Banducci announces retirement.
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But here's 70%. Small vax difference, *huge* result difference. Deaths moderately high, but most notably ICU demand shoots way above even emergency surge capacity. Implications not just for Covid but all hospital care. 5/
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That doesn't mean life must stay the same as now until we hit 80. Every jab reduces Covid's spreadability. Reach 50, 60, 70 and although we still need to be containing Covid, it'll be *easier* to contain. State govts will be less and less likely to need lockdowns, borders etc 8/.
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Man this is so silly and dangerous. The threat of deaths isn’t some alarmist beat up, it’s a real thing! My god! And delta is harder! And nobody is vaxxed! Not engaging because I have no interest being called an idiot but it sucks that this ill informed snark gets traction
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And for good measure: here's 50%, a number some seriously suggest, with *optimistic* assumptions. Gets horrible fast. In reality, when ICU gets overwhelmed, the likely outcome is a very, very long lockdown *and* a very significant health toll. 6/
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Perrottet making small tweaks to the roadmap and leaving the health bureaucrats out of the presser to stamp his own brand on things has a very 'dudes rock' feel about it.
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The 7-11 on Brunswick St in Fitzroy is being replaced by an A1 Bakery, and despite it being a decades-old family-owned business replacing a global convenience store giant it still somehow feels like the biggest single gentrification event in the area in recent memory?.
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My reflection on youth media after a few months having a go at it: young people are smart, so treat them like that. You can and should explain basics, but you can and should do it without cringey pop culture references or affected colloquial language. It’s patronising and naff!.
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What kind of ID is Eugene carrying around in his wallet that doesn’t include his surname?.
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And we have enough supply to hit 80 and beyond this year. The two challenges for govts (states, not just feds): get a jab in the arm of everyone who wants one and convince the quarter who are delaying to get jabbed sooner rather than later. 10/
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The potential reopening date being broken via *fox sports* because the government told the AFL clubs is the most WA thing imaginable (great scoop, just wild from the govt).
There is more work to do before it becomes official, but WA is aiming to open its borders on the weekend of March 12-14. Details 👇. @FoxCricket @FOXFOOTY
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And the Fed Gov'ts comms need to be everything they haven't been. The AZ comms disaster can't be repeated. Pay attention to why people are hesitant. Use trusted messengers targeted at the cohorts you want to reach. Sell the benefits of vaccination. Even run a lottery. 14/
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To see why, here's our modelling. Its key assumptions: Delta infectiousness and vaccine effectiveness. We use it to predict how Covid would spread in different scenarios. Here's opening at 80%, with some mid-range assumptions. Covid doesn't take off. 3/
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We did a remarkable thing in the 'first round' against Covid, which not many thought we could do. Here's a reminder of what we achieved. We have to be just as ambitious this round, because it won't happen by accident. 20/
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I find it unbelievably funny that when you google former Nationals leader Warren Truss his face doesn't appear until the fifth row because it's also a type of bridge
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I'll start with logistics: GPs are important to the rollout, but the Federal Govt needs to allocate more doses to the states. State clinics are only allocated ~20% of supply by year end. But they're the ones best placed to bring jabs to arms. Let them help. 11/.
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Every heart beats true for the red and the blue as we disregard curfew.
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The headline ‘teal voters are Labor/Greens not Libs’ is destined to become conventional wisdom but it’s the wrong way to read this data. Yes left voters were strategic, but the left vote has never been enough in these seats. They flipped bc *18%* of libs swung teal. That’s huge.
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What we propose isn't easy - Covid has never offered easy choices, and isn't about to start. Getting to 80 by year's end or soon after is hard. But it *must* be done. We shouldn't accept a huge death toll, or Fortress Australia for any longer than necessary. 19/.
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Earnest post alert: I got my press pass today and I’m pretty excited about it!
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Putting my election predictions on the record. I look forward to seeing how wrong I am. Outcomes with made up probabilities:.1. ALP majority (40%).2. Hung, ALP minority (30%).3. Hung, L/NP minority/no result (20%).4. L/NP majority (10%). Seat-by-seat analysis that gets me there:.
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