I put up a mini-site today at to help you compare the world’s cities. You can see how many people live near a city, or use my favourite metric: "population weighted density" to get an accurate measure of how dense a city is to live in.
You’ve almost certainly been lied to after Googling how big the world’s cities are. How can it be that Melbourne in Australia has 5 million residents, whereas New York City only has 8? It's been very difficult to compare cities, until now...
New apartments cause a 'chain reaction' that benefits the poor, but I was shocked to find out just how quickly.
This Swedish study found that while the rich move into fancy new homes, the place they left empty was most likely to be taken up by the bottom 20%.
Controversial opinion: Most golf courses in Australian cities are well used and should remain. Golf Course Discourse comes from LA but Australian cities have plenty of open space. Australian commentariat should avoid importing American discourse for no reason.
Cities go to incredible efforts to measure the cost of more homes on civic infrastructure. Traffic modeling, open space figures, and hospital capacity are all used to justify restrictive zoning. But the cost of not upzoning is rarely quantified.
Every city should and here's how:
I may add that over the last decade, over 80% of first home buyers purchased their homes in greenfield areas. Newly built homes, housing estates.
The political class loves to project their own class and lifestyles into every discussion. In reality, the private sector building
It's a common misconception that our cities are running out of land for apartments. We have lots of land, but most of it is illegal to build "missing middle" housing on.
What happens when all the heritage listed areas are bulldozed and replaced with apartments? That is, all 'available' land is built upon as the YIMBYs want?
Some would argue we are very near this point in most big cities in Australia.
One common refrain from planners who want to restrict development to polluted main roads is that the nice lots are too small for development. But is that true?
Here's some density in Melbourne on small lots, starting with 10 apartments on 8 storeys across 134m^2 in Nth Melbourne
There's a whole group of harm minimisation types on Australian twitter railing against the public health orthodoxy on vaping.
I just think you'd have to have a pretty high degree of confidence in the long-term safety of vapes not to be alarmed by this graph:
One popular Melbourne NIMBY complaint against housing is that we don't have enough open space. But is that true?
Of course not. Australian cities have a tremendous amount of parkland compared to other global cities
I honestly don't think many Gen-X and above realise just how awesome it was being a young Melbournian in 2010-2018. All those high-rises in the city meant that landlords were **petrified** to raise rents. Truly the glory days.
If you live in City of Yarra, put Stephen Jolly last. On every issue he sides with the NIMBYs and against the people of Yarra.
(pictured: Jolly with campaigners against a sobering up centre in Collingwood)
This is a great article.
One big role of YIMBYs should be to make the practical political reality of side street in-fill easier so that all the housing doesn’t have to go on the most polluted, noisy, and unpleasant main roads.
@Nicholas_Reece
How should we allocate housing targets to local areas of a growing city? Over the past few months I've been working with YIMBY Melbourne on evidence-based housing targets for local government areas in Melbourne....
@aarmlovi
For density you can choose. Population weighted density must include water bodies so that we are always weighting similar sized areas, but if an entire square km is water then it will have a weight of 0.
If you don't like the quality of the discourse on Twitter, I suggest you avoid LinkedIn at all costs.
Response from a strategy consultant to my article on the distortions created by zoning:
@camjpatrick
I'm more suspicious of the truncated x axis. This random graph puts the latest increase in context as a slight increase on a long historic decline.
Lefties who hate YIMBYs often complain about the lack of focus on public housing. But YIMBY pressure makes it easier to build all kinds of housing.
Outside of a few greens dominated areas most NIMBYs hate public and community housing even more than private.
You might not like hearing the truth but shopping centres over train stations are the ideal urban space. Weather proof, accessible, low cost/no cost third spaces for teenagers, big landlord ensures a good mix of tenants.... The only way to argue against them is by being snobby.
One of the best things about Australian labour markets is that you can usually find your dream job without having to move and risk your partner’s career. Decentralisation (both within and across cities) ruins that and should be opposed.
Universities are products of fiscal policy but suffer agglomeration disbenefits.
In a 2022 AHURI report we suggested tying research funding to regional city campuses to boost regional knowledge economies. That could also improve housing affordability.
has been updated to include global rankings. Dhaka really stands out - it has the most dense inner core and more than 60m people living within 100km.
NYC? Never even makes the top 10.
More new features below🧵1/n
There sometimes isn't much difference between housing consumed by the rich and the poor. Melbourne is filled with share-houses because there aren't enough apartments. And NYC is filled with low-income housing that is being gentrified and is now suddenly only for the rich.
Urban planning friends, why does Melbourne so often fail to space trees to create connected canopies?
Take Docklands for example... it's been 25 years, no canopy! Who spaced them?
The vast majority of their buildings (like this social housing complex) are medium density (about 5 storeys), which ensures a connection to the street, while densifying in a sustainable way.
I honestly don't think many Gen-X and above realise just how awesome it was being a young Melbournian in 2010-2018. All those high-rises in the city meant that landlords were **petrified** to raise rents. Truly the glory days.
I spent years lobbying road authorities for bike lanes. Their mental model of traffic is of water - incompressible and exerting increased pressure on nearby pipes/roads if one outlet is closed. In reality traffic is a gas: expanding and contracting to the space you give it.
Anybody who has visited both cities knows that Melbourne is not more crowded than Manhattan or London.
Melbourne is not “among the most crowded places in the developed world” and the truth matters for how Melbourne grows... 🧵
One of the great thing about subways is that you can have an entrance on both sides of a major road. Not so for SRL. You'll have to go to ground level and then walk up a footbridge over a road to get to Deakin Uni.
This only makes sense if you think SRL won't get much use.
@JamesMConlan
James, public housing in Victoria has a 5% vacancy rate. That's natural - it happens because homes are being repaired etc. According to prosper the vacancy rate in Brunswick for all housing is somewhere between 1.9 and 9%. Where is the glut exactly?
This is so depressing. Great site close to a train station on a line with plenty of capacity and we're building 1 home for every 46sqm of land? If we do this for all brownfield conversions we will never have abundant housing.
Victoria Premier
@JacintaAllanMP
holding a doorstop in the Opposition Leader
@JohnPesutto
electorate of Hawthorn - talking housing, planning and clearing the planning permit backlog. Old
@UniMelb
site she’s at is set to become a mixed use development with 350 homes.
#springst
Melbourne has a unique opportunity with its tram network to 2x population for little cost. There are stories pre-pandemic of people waiting for 9 L trains, but Mel's under-utilised streetcars could be turned into a light rail release valve at any moment.
Housing activism group YIMBY Melbourne is calling for the development of Melbourne’s “missing middle” by enabling six-storey, mixed-use development on all residential land near train and tram stops
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews has slammed 'cruel' and 'desperate' politicians for driving a debate over transgender kids playing school sports, suggesting it is a non-issue.
Second Street Housing: Living next to, but not on top of main street.
While most US/Canadian apartments are built on busy streets (Corridor zoning), we ought to look at next street over. 1/
We're honoured to have been invited by the Planning Institute of Australia (Vic) to present a briefing on our newest report, Missing Middle Housing Targets!
@jonobri
and
@Jonathan_Nolan_
will present this briefing online on Friday, May 10th 👇
Every person who owns a narrow terrace in Carlton could buy their neighbour's property and build one of these. If we let it happen it would be wildly popular.
One of Seattle's most ambitious single-stair designs is located in Phinney Ridge:
•6-stories
•24 units
•Narrow 35' wide lot
•pursuing Living Building Pedal Certification
The midrise project is illegal to build in most US cities due to the use of a single stair
It's great the state government is setting council housing targets, but where should those new homes go?
One of Melbourne's great assets is excess rail capacity into our city. Building more homes along these lines will give more people access to the MCG, galleries, and CBD jobs
If you want to say "x percent of homes are heritage protected" what do you use for the dominator? Total homes doesn't really work because you might have 1 heritage listing for an apartment building of 50 homes. Is there data on # of residential lots?
Planners love to say how we need to carefully plan development to make the best use of infrastructure but Melbourne Metro will increase Sandringham line capacity by 48% so where is the upzoning?!
One thing about Melbourne is that people underestimate how good our greenfield areas are. Look at Tarneit north: Same time to the CBD by train as Glen Waverley. Great parks + trees, decent bike infra. If we don't support demolishing Glen Waverley why would we stop building this?
Over the last 30 years melbourne has gone from a dinky street car network to fully fledged light rail at $18m per vehicle. But they still sit in mixed traffic going 15km/h! Something will have to give.
High Street Northcote has so much parking that people leave their abandoned cars there and nobody notices. And yet "reduction in parking" is the traders main concern around tram stop upgrades. Defies logic!
@Hungryhippo561
@thomasforth
Yep! I gave him a mention in the about page. Definitely a huge inspiration for me and i’m Jealous how much faster his site is to load!
This picture is cooked. Why do people who claim to 'just be asking questions' about our immigration policy have to descend into fear-inducing imagery of Australia being overwhelmed by faceless people with dark hair?
New article:
Australia's $40 billion of education exports is a statistical trick
You've heard Australia exports billions in education services, but you won't believe where this number comes from
@peter_tulip
I’d only call if a replacement if low income RA recipients spent a similar share of their income on housing as public tenants, but we know that they spend a lot more…
New year's resolution: No more SRL East critiques. $5bn has been spent now, and so just like NEL, it's too far gone. When SRL opens it will be nice and there will be great photos of trains full of people who get use from it. I hope it brings Melbournians joy!
🚨 Tim Pallas has just announced an expansion of the government’s Vacant Residential Land Tax at an industry breakfast. Stakeholders livid. Comes into effect 2025.
#springst
Another property from the annals of "small lots are not an excuse for bad zoning"
These 9 homes were built on 250sqm in Coburg - where land values are hardly stratospheric.
Planner mandated setbacks make it ugly.
One common refrain from planners who want to restrict development to polluted main roads is that the nice lots are too small for development. But is that true?
Here's some density in Melbourne on small lots, starting with 10 apartments on 8 storeys across 134m^2 in Nth Melbourne
This development on Smith Street has 69 bike parking spots for 29 apartments. Planning regulations only require 14. I'm putting in a motion of support!
It’s just over a month since a republican in the USA called for a return to the genocide of trans people.
For ninefax staff to characterise the greens policy on preventing transphobia as a free speech issue really is dismaying.
There is an easy solution. We need to fill the gap in our missing middle by allowing 6 story human scale developments within 500m of every train station and tram stop. It won’t just make rents cheaper, it will also make Melbourne a much more enjoyable place to live.
How to implement land taxes:
1) Calculate what every homeowner would have paid if we always had land taxes since they bought.
2) If land tax bill > stamp duty bill on or after 2025/1/1, land tax clock starts and owner must pay any accrued on sale.
3) Use $ to buy voters.
SRL precincts are 3.2km in diameter. Why are we putting all our effort into areas that won't be walking distance from a train station when we have hundreds of stations that are surrounded by low-density housing?
If we’re going to convince more pensioners to live in apartments one huge barrier is body corporate fees.
At some point a smart developer is going to bundle the lifetime cost of bc fees into the asset price by having the bc own and rent a few units to cover common costs.
@bspiesbutcher
@BaldingPhillip
The evidence actually shows that as consumers of housing the bottom benefits more - because they're more likely to move homes. Taxing any windfall gains from a zoning uplift should be a 'yes and' - not positioned as being in opposition.
This might seem weird but it makes sense. Sure there are some fancy apartments, but the richest people live in old houses. New apartment dwellers are the exact group of people who will gentrify somewhere further away from the city if they can't afford their desired location.
Boroondara has been using zoning and heritage to protect rich NIMBYs, constructing only 700 homes per year. It's not fair for the richest areas of Melbourne to continually fail to do their bit, forcing more and more housing onto our urban fringe.
People need to stop spreading the myth that Barcelona is somehow the most dense city in the world. Barcelona is way less dense than skyscraper cities on both a local and citywide level.
Nothing in this view is more than about 5 stories high, yet it’s one of the densest humane places on the planet. No skyscraper place even comes close. YIMBYs who acknowledge facts like this instantly gain stature with me, as you have done on several counts recently. Thank you!
For the past decade Melbourne has been following Matthew Guy's idea to relegate density to tiny parts of the city on the most polluted, noisy, and dangerous streets. It keeps both developers and NIMBYs happy but it’s inequitable and it's making the city a bad place to live.
We live in a culture that permits vicious and despicable bigotry even from people like
@misha_saul
who consider themselves members of polite society.
In the face of this it would have been easy to be silent or moderate like so many politicians, but Dan stood tall.