Andrew Whelan
@andrew_whelan
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Gryan Miers' goal assists this year - just incredible!
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Highest average goals per game in 2023, excluding matches against West Coast and North Melbourne
3.0 Nick Larkey (63/21)
2.8 Taylor Walker (54/19)
2.7 Toby Greene (49/18)
2.7 Max King (24/9)
2.6 Charlie Curnow (50/19)
2.6 Jeremy Cameron (49/19)
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Highest score involvements as a % of team scores, 2012-
87.5% Harry Sheezel (14/16, R20 2024)
80.0% Nat Fyfe (8/10, R22 2018)
75.0% Jarryd Roughead (9/12, R11 2017)
72.7% Zach Merrett (8/11, R13 2020)
72.2% Lance Franklin (13/18, R20 2018)
70.0% Jack Gunstan (14/20, R10 2019)
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Highest AFL player rating in a match before 20th birthday (2012-2024)
31.3 M.Bontempelli, Age 19.7
29.6 N.Daicos, 19.5
28.0 M.Bontempelli, 19.7
27.7 H.Bennell, 19.8
27.7 M.Bontempelli, 18.7
27.5 M.Bontempelli, 19.6
27.5 B.Parfitt, 19.9
26.8 T.Miller, 19.4
26.1 H.Reid, 19.0 🟦🟨
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AFL Premiership Metrics 🏆
Updated for 2024.
🔴It's all Sydney🔴
Two new metrics have been added this year based on Champion Data's Premiership Standards, and a few have dropped off.
👇Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics in the following post.
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Judd McVee has only lost 2 of 17 defensive one-on-one contests. Of the 82 players with 15+ contests this season, McVee and Bowey rank 9th and 10th, respectively. 😈
AFL average is 24.9%
McVee the Dee the Rising Star nominee 😈
Congratulations to Judd McVee on taking out the round 18 AFL Rising Star nomination.
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AFL Premiership Metrics with one round to go 🏆
Current top 6 ranks (out of 19 metrics):
19 Melbourne (
#1
in 7)
14 Collingwood
12 Carlton
11 Brisbane
10 Adelaide
9 St Kilda
8 Port Adelaide
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AFL Premiership Metrics 🏆
Current top 6 ranks (out of 19 metrics):
18 Melbourne
13 Collingwood
13 Geelong
12 Carlton
12 Brisbane
Melbourne ranks top 4 in 16 metrics
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Simulating the 50 shots in that match 10000 times, Melbourne win that match ~4% of the time.
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AFL Premiership Metrics 🏆
At least 9 of the last 11 premiership teams ranked in the top 6 in these 19 statistical categories during their home and away season.
Current top 6 ranks:
18 Melbourne
15 Collingwood
12 Port Adelaide
11 Brisbane
Last 11 premiers in following tweet.
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 10
Who doesn't love a premiership window graphic?
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics in the following post. 👇
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Highest AFL player rating in a match before 20th birthday (2012-2024)
31.3 M.Bontempelli
*30.8 H.Sheezel
29.6 N.Daicos
28.0 M.Bontempelli
27.7 H.Bennell
27.7 M.Bontempelli
27.5 M.Bontempelli
27.5 B.Parfitt
26.8 T.Miller
*26.7 H.Reid
*26.2 B.Humphrey
*26.1 H.Reid
* 2024
Highest AFL player rating in a match before 20th birthday (2012-2024)
31.3 M.Bontempelli, Age 19.7
29.6 N.Daicos, 19.5
28.0 M.Bontempelli, 19.7
27.7 H.Bennell, 19.8
27.7 M.Bontempelli, 18.7
27.5 M.Bontempelli, 19.6
27.5 B.Parfitt, 19.9
26.8 T.Miller, 19.4
26.1 H.Reid, 19.0 🟦🟨
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Jack Viney appreciation post 🔵🔴
Most games polling Coaches Votes, Rounds 13-24
10 Jack Viney
9 Marcus Bontempelli
9 Caleb Serong
9 Connor Rozee
9 Christian Petracca
Most Coaches Votes, Rounds 13-24
69 Errol Gulden
58 Marcus Bontempelli
53 Caleb Serong
52 Jack Viney
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AFL Player Ratings
Here is an update of the chart in the quoted post showing the Player Ratings history of the nine players who have ranked number 1 in AFL Player Ratings.
🔥Bont is up to 44 weeks at number 1.
See below for summary table and charts for individual players👇
I miss this account. Anyone tracking (or easily able to) the rolling ratings? Bont must be racking up those weeks at the top now.
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Most AFL Rating Points in a player's first five matches of a season (2012-2024)
133.0🔥Isaac Heeney (Syd), 2024🔴
120.8 Gary Ablett (GC), 2015
117.4 Gary Ablett (GC), 2012
113.6 Dustin Martin (Rich), 2018
112.7 Patrick Cripps (Carl), 2019
110.5 Rory Sloan (Adel), 2017
Most AFL Rating Points in a player's first four matches of a season (2012-2024)
105.4 Gary Ablett (GC), 2012
103.7 Isaac Heeney (Syd), 2024🔴
100.4 Patrick Cripps (Carl), 2019
98.3 Dustin Martin (Rich), 2018
94.8 Lance Franklin (Syd), 2018
92.4 Scott Pendlebury (Coll), 2014
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McVee career high disposals (23), contested possessions (11) and intercept possessions (15!).
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Here are the top teams based on my model.
1️⃣Essendon 2000 🏆
2️⃣Geelong 2007 🏆
3️⃣Geelong 2011 🏆
4️⃣Geelong 2008
5️⃣Hawthorn 2015 🏆
6️⃣Collingwood 2010 🏆
7️⃣Collingwood 2010
8️⃣Hawthorn 2014 🏆
9️⃣Hawthorn 2012
🔟Melbourne 2021 🏆
GREATEST TEAM OF THE 21ST CENTURY!
Starting this Tuesday, we will begin a 32-team bracket to crown the best AFL team since 2000!
You'll be able to vote here on Twitter & on our Insta stories.
Check out the bracket below. Stay tuned!
Thanks to Werribee KIA
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This round has had margins of 1, 2, 3 and 5 points.
Last time that happened was last round.
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Can we please take a moment to think of the kids being brainwashed by Champion Data's player ratings?
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🏅Brownlow Medal predictions
1️⃣34.4 Nick Daicos
2️⃣33.0 Patrick Cripps
3️⃣27.3 Lachie Neale
4️⃣26.7 Marcus Bontempelli
👇See following posts for round 23 and 24 match votes and the optimistic model.
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Players averaging 25+ disposals, 12+ contested possessions, and 1.4+ goals (1999-)
2000 Koutoufides 26.1 14.9 1.8
2010 Ablett 31.5 13.2 1.8
2014 Ablett 32.1 17.5 1.6
2017 Dangerfield 29.9 17.9 1.9
2017 Martin 29.8 14.5 1.5
2024 Heeney 26.5 12.0 1.6
2024 Bontempelli 26.1 14.0 1.6
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Players with Player Rating of 20+ over 20 consecutive matches
22.7 Gary Ablett
22.0 Dustin Martin
21.9 Patrick Dangerfield
21.3 Scott Pendlebury
21.0 Nat Fyfe
20.4 Marcus Bontempelli
Ablett averaged 20.1 over 77 matches from R1 2012-R1 2017 (and I don't have data pre-2012)
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New Expected Scores page now available
🟣Explore goalkicking accuracy and shot rating (2021-)
🟣View by player, team or AFL-wide
🟣View player shot charts
🟣Filter shots by season, shot type, distance and corridor/pocket
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West Coast is currently rated the second worst V/AFL team of all time by my ratings.
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⭐New stats added to Wheelo Ratings
🟣Player match stats pages now include Intercept Possessions, Intercept Marks, and Pressure Acts
🟣Team match and season stats pages now include Score Sources
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How do this year's grand finalists compare to the grand finalists of the previous 24 seasons?
(Note: Ratings are based on the entire season, including the grand final)
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How, where and when do players win contested possessions?
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Melbourne v GWS
+27 inside 50s
+19 clearances
+42 contested possessions
Teams with +25, +15, +40 prior to today, since 2012
10 wins, 0 losses
(9 wins by 50+ points)
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Most AFL Rating Points in a player's first four matches of a season (2012-2024)
105.4 Gary Ablett (GC), 2012
103.7 Isaac Heeney (Syd), 2024🔴
100.4 Patrick Cripps (Carl), 2019
98.3 Dustin Martin (Rich), 2018
94.8 Lance Franklin (Syd), 2018
92.4 Scott Pendlebury (Coll), 2014
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But my model does have Essendon as the most likely team to lose an elimination final, so that checks out.
@mikeermie33
@andrew_whelan
He closes his eyes and throws a dart. He’s got the team sitting in 3rd as the 13th best side 🤡
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Most recent teams with an average losing margin of less than 10 points
MELB 2023, 9.6 ❓
Geel 2013, 7.2 ❌
Geel 2011, 8.3 🏆
St K 2009, 6.3 ❌
Carl 1979, 9.7 🏆
Melb 1959, 9.3 🏆
Melb 1957, 8.3 🏆
Melb 1956, 7.5 🏆
Melb 1955, 7.7 🏆
Carl 1936, 9.6 ❌
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AFL Premiership Metrics 🏆
Current top 6 ranks (out of 19 metrics):
18 Melbourne
14 Collingwood
13 Carlton
11 Brisbane
10 Adelaide
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Most recent teams to be top 3 on the ladder with a percentage < 100
R9 2024: Essendon
R13 1997: Port Adelaide
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Here are the biggest differences in actual and predicted votes in individual games.
#Brownlow
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Working on an Expected Score / Time in Forward Half match graphic for next AFL season.
Any requests for specific matches from 2021-2023?
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Most AFL Rating Points in a player's first two matches of a season (2012-2024)
61.5 Lance Franklin (Syd), 2018
56.3 Dustin Martin (Rich), 2017
55.4 Dustin Martin (Rich), 2018
55.1 Isaac Heeney (Syd), 2024🔴
52.1 Patrick Cripps (Carl), 2022
51.8 Marc Murphy (Carl), 2012
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 23
Western Bulldogs, Sydney and Brisbane are the only teams in or close to the "premiership window" with one round to go.
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics in the following post.
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Most recent VFL/AFL premiership teams to lose more quarters in finals than they won
Coll 2023 - won 5, lost 6, drew 1
Carl 1972 - won 7, lost 8, drew 1
Coll 1958 - won 4, lost 7, drew 1
Carl 1947 - won 3, lost 4, drew 1
#AFLGF
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Each team's last 90+ point loss
Melb 2024 R12
WC 2024 R11
Rich 2024 R10
Ess 2023 R23
NM 2023 R7
Syd 2023 R6
Carl 2021 R22
GC 2021 R20
St K 2021 R10
Frem 2019 R16
Adel 2018 R10
Bris 2018 R4
Coll 2015 R21
Geel 2014 R11
GWS 2014 R10
WB 2012 R10
Port 2011 R21
Haw 2006 R11
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 21
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics and where they were ranked after 20 H&A matches of their premiership season in the following posts.
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⭐Website update⭐
Scores from centre bounce, all stoppages, turnovers and kick-ins are are now available for the three missing games in round 23.
As a bonus, this information is now available back to 2017.
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Brownlow Medal predictions for round 1
Coaches votes and brownlow predictions are also on the Match Stats page:
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With the 2024 AFL season less than a week away, here are the main changes to the Wheelo Ratings website since last season.
🟣Team Lists
View details of all players on the 2024 team lists.
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 24
Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn were the only teams to finish in the "premiership window", with Brisbane and Sydney just outside.
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics in the following post.
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Final Brownlow Medal predictions
1️⃣26.6 Nick Daicos
2️⃣25.7 Marcus Bontompelli
3️⃣25.1 Zak Butters
4️⃣24.3 Christian Petracca
🟣Download match predictions as CSV
🟣Brownlow Guide PDF coming soon
Round 23 and 24 votes below 👇
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Following Heeney's suspension, the AFL has announced it will change the Brownlow voting next season. The 3, 2, 1 votes will be awarded to the three fairest players in each match. Players will be deemed ineligible under the "best" component of the medal if they play a bad game.
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I have added a page to my website for AFL player stats. I will replace these stats with 2022 stats once the season commences (and probably include a team stats page) but not sure whether I'll include player/team stats for past years.
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Now that the AFL fixture has been announced, here are my early simulation results for 2023
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New website functionality
Players can now be selected on the Player Stats page by clicking on a row in the table or a point on the scatter chart.
Selected players will be highlighted in the chart and in the table.
See screenshots for examples.
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 11
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics in the following post.👇
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Melbourne has a 74% match ratio over the past three home & away seasons (80%, 73%, 70%).
There have been 124 teams with a home & away match ratio this high over a three-year period in VFL/AFL history. The median number of premierships is one.
3️⃣🏆 6
2️⃣🏆 41
1️⃣🏆 52 🟣
0️⃣🏆 25
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Lowest team-high disposals for players with more than one centre bounce attendance, 2021-2024
14 - Haw v GC, R5 2024
18 - Geel v Syd, R16 2023
19 - Rich v Geel, R19 2021
19 - WC v St K, R19 2022
19 - Geel v Frem, R10 2023
19 - Geel v WB, R12 2023
19 - Geel v Melb, R15 2023
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The loss today ends Melbourne's 81-week streak inside the top 8 (since R1 2021). That's the longest streak since Geelong spent 107 weeks in the top 8 from R6 2007 to R24 2011.
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Funnily enough, Pendlebury is yet to reach 10,000 possessions, but did get to 10,000 disposals last week.
Why does the media ignore this but fawn over pendles getting 10,000 possessions. More blatant bias. Sick of it.
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Brownlow Medal predictions for round 18
Coaches votes and Brownlow predictions are also on the Match Stats page:
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Most matches with a margin of 0-9 points over a two season period
21: Coll 2022-2023
18: Melb 1967-1968
16: Coll 2021-2022
16: Geel 1999-2000
16: WB 1999-2000
16: Carl 1963-1964
16: Carl 1962-1963
16: Haw 1958-1959
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 15
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics and where they were ranked after 14 H&A matches of their premiership season in the following posts.
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Surely if concussions and the potential long-term effects can be dismissed by so many football supporters as "just the risk you take playing football", getting suspended for causing a concussion could equally be just the risk you take playing football.
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 12
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics in the following post.👇
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My model had Western Bulldogs a 97.9% chance of winning today - the highest ever for a losing team.
It was also the highest (97.2%) for my player-based model (only available since 2013).
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Based on data I have access to, there are 26 statistical categories in which at least eight of the last ten premiers ranked in the top 6.
Nine of the last ten premiers were ranked in the top 6 in at least 21 of these 26 categories (WB 2016 only 18 categories).
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Lowest average margin in a VFL/AFL finals series, 1972-2023
14.6: 2023
16.2: 1981
18.0: 1976
19.3: 1975
22.0: 2013
23.4: 2020*
24.1: 1997
24.7: 1978
24.7: 1986
24.7: 1993
Highest
57.2: 1987
49.7: 1989
47.4: 1995
47.2: 2017
47.1: 2000
45.9: 2007
45.0: 1985
#AFLGF
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⭐New page added to Wheelo Ratings
🟣View stats for a particular team for all matches on one page.
Access the page from the "View" Match Stats links on the Team Stats page:
Or directly from the following url:
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The Wheelo Ratings 2023 Brownlow Medal Guide will be released shortly. 99 pages of Brownlow predictions.
🟣Probabilities from 20,000 simulations
🟣Detailed predictions for the top 20 players
🟣Predictions and stats for every match
➕more
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What a perfect way to arrive at our wedding reception!
@FrogmoreCreek
@paraviontas
#DespinaAndAndrew
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Here are the
@SquiggleAFL
Power Rankings after Round 8, thanks to the Squiggle API and 16 Squiggle models.
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Most wins by fewer than 10 points over a two season period
17: Coll 2022-2023
12: Coll 1980-1981
11: Melb 1967-1968
11: St K 1927-1928
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Expected Scores Ladder, Round 3
Expected wins (xWins) is the average win probability for each match based on expected scores, calculated by simulation of all shots in a match.
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It seems the umpires and coaches differed more this year compared to the 2012-2022 average.
19x 10-vote games (15.7%) missed out on votes altogether.
Average Brownlow votes x coaches votes
🔟2.17
9️⃣1.77
8️⃣1.25
7️⃣1.10
6️⃣1.06
5️⃣0.86
4️⃣0.40
3️⃣0.36
2️⃣0.28
1️⃣0.02
#BrownlowMedal
Using AFLCA votes is the absolute best predictor of Brownlow voting.
With more than half (56%) of all 3-vote games across the past decade belonging to players who polled 9+ AFLCA votes, the coaches and umps are often on the same page about where the votes should go.
@AFLCoaches
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For anyone using my website for the COVID exposure sites, you can now filter by LGA and location type (venue, airport, flight/Spirit).
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Brownlow Medal update 🏅
Enough people have questioned Gawn's votes in my predictor that I have investigated why he has so many. It turns out player positions were incorrectly classified and rucks were being assigned too many votes!
Updated votes:
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Player profiles now available on Wheelo Ratings
Available for all AFL players since 2012
🟪Season stats
🟪Trend chart
🟪Player comparison
Season player statistics also now available back to 2012
Feedback? Suggestions?
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Current predictions after round 6:
1️⃣ Lachie Neale
2️⃣ Christian Petracca
3️⃣ Nick Daicos
4️⃣ Marcus Bontempelli
#Brownlow
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 18
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics and where they were ranked after 17 H&A matches of their premiership season in the following posts.
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Current predictions after round 7:
1️⃣ Christian Petracca
2️⃣ Lachie Neale
3️⃣ Nick Daicos
4️⃣ Marcus Bontempelli
#Brownlow
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Brownlow Medal predictions for Round 14
👇See following post for the optimistic model.
🟣Coaches votes and Brownlow predictions are also on the Match Stats page:
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Tasmania's COVID exposure sites:
My website's very much a work in progress, but I thought I'd share this page which is hopefully useful.
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Is winning the hitout in
@AFL
important?
Thanks to
@alittlefitness
awesome play by play dataset, we can see that every team wins the clearance at a higher rate when they win the hitout compared to when their opposition wins the hitout.
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Steve Smith
T20 Internationals - 51 innings, 24 sixes
BBL 2023 - 4 innings, 24 sixes
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🏆AFL Premiership Metrics after round 17
Details for the last 12 premiers' performance against these metrics and where they were ranked after 16 H&A matches of their premiership season in the following posts.
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AFL team ratings after round 22
Yes, that's 12th placed Adelaide in second and there's just 3.9 points separating the top seven teams. That's the closest ever top seven in these ratings.
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Scatter charts are now available on the following pages
🟪AFL Player Stats:
🟪AFL Team Stats:
🟪AFL Annual Summary:
🟪ATP Player Stats:
🟪WTA Player Stats:
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Current predictions after round 9:
1️⃣ Christian Petracca
2️⃣ Lachie Neale
3️⃣ Marcus Bontempelli
4️⃣ Nick Daicos
#Brownlow
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