Deeply shocked by the news of terrorist attacks in Israel. Our thoughts and prayers are with the innocent victims and their families. We stand in solidarity with Israel at this difficult hour.
The economic advantages sit with Putin and Russia, despite the sanctions. The repercussions will be long lasting, just like the 1973 oil embargo.
#Ahead
of the Herd
#Economy
Bye bye cryptos!!! Anybody thinking central banks & govts will give up the monopoly of money to characters of dubious intent, well...
@amlivemon
@chigrl
@gbponz
#China
: Former President & General Secretary of China, Hu
#Jintao
, Xi
#Jinping
's predecessor, has been physically removed from Communist Party Congress and has since disappeared.
I worry that we are on the verge of some serious cracks in the financial markets:
Stagflation
Food crisis
Liquidity impairment in the foundational US Treasury market, where high volatility leads to increasing illiquidity
Credit Market Implosion Will Be Severe, Says The Very Influential
@Halsrethink
, along with
@nglinsman
.
If you are an investor, professional or private, this is a must watch.
Market adjustments mean market opportunities.
Tku
@JackFarley96
via
@YouTube
What the?? This video taken yesterday in Shanghai, China, by the father of a close friend of mine. She verified its authenticity: People screaming out of their windows after a week of total lockdown, no leaving your apartment for any reason.
Salio has so much money tied up in China, which he can't get out, he has no choice but to act as a promoter of nonsense. Meanwhile, China is suffering from the middle income trap.
@Jkylebass
@Halsrethink
@amlivemon
#Evergrande
- China’s and world’s largest RE developer, with $ 15-16bn in offshore debt and more than $300bn in total liability - is on the verge of default and it’s bonds trading at 27c on the dollar. This is not making enough headlines given the systemic risk involved here imho
@halsrethink
and I were invited by the publisher to write the lead article for The International Economy Magazine. It is uniquely published for the top of finance, and represents a direct line to most of the movers and shakers around the world.
Ann excellent piece on why Eastern Ukraine is so attractive to Putin. Basically, Ukraine is a heavyweight in the global agricultural supply chain. But it is not just agriculture... Read on
@Halsrethink
@amlivemon
@gbponz
@chigrl
@TonyNashNerd
I would posit that we are watching the death of "just-in-time" business model, and a rebirth in supply-side economics, or the need for markets to understand it again
@Halsrethink
This is what happens when you take the middle class for granted, and assume there will ALWAYS be demand.
One day the REAL Atlas shrugs and it's all over.
We are watching the death of Supply Side Economics in real-time.
As brutal an end as anyone could imagine.
A second EU diplomatic source:
"EU Ambassadors have received an update by the European Commission on the current state of play on the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. The Commission reported on recent positive developments in the negotiations with China ...
Goldman raising its Fed forecast to include a 75bp rate hike in September (vs. 50bp previously) and a 50bp hike in November (vs. 25bp previously). They continue to expect a 25bp hike in December, which would take the funds rate to 3.75-4% by the end of 2022.
*BREAKING* 4 SOEs of China, including PetroChina, China Life Insurance, Sinopec, and Aluminum Corporation of China, have all announced to exit from New York Stock Exchange today.
CHLOROQUININE
Italians have just approved this drug for people " Doctors say the drug, called favipiravir (branded Avigan), is effective in treating coronavirus infections and dramatically shortens the time a person is sick.
Step 1 but so so late
The British have this
@vtchakarova
Netanyahu has a lot to answer for Velina, but let's not conflate the basic problem here. To quote Golda Meir, "if the Palestinians would put down their guns, there would be peace. If the Israelis put down their guns, there would be no Israel"
Germany attacks UK economic plan as it unveils €200bn energy support - live updates
Hold on a sec - the energy mess in Europe is entirely the fault of the Germans, who should never be given a leadership role again.
@chigrl
via
@telebusiness
A MUST-READ & OPEN ACCESS TO ALL
Liquidity – Leverage, Reserves, Equities
This article from the eminent
@PPGMacro
, covers one of the most important indicators for risk there is.
#Macro
Friend
A MUST READ
We are delighted to have a guest piece from Joseph Wang (
@FedGuy12
), who spent 5 year at the FRBNY as a senior trader on the open markets desk. He details the mechanics of the announced QT & looks for a 'great steepening" in the bond market.
Chinese bulk carrier pileup -
Dotting the sea off Chinese ports are nearly 500 bulk cargo ships waiting to deliver resources from metal ore to grain into the country.
@man_integrated
German businesses that bet big on China are starting to worry as the two pillars of their economic growth have changed. "Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine forced Germany to wean itself off the gas that provided its industry with cheap power. China’s drive toward self-reliance means a
A 393-years old Greenland Shark was located in the Arctic Ocean. It's been wandering the ocean since 1627. It is the oldest living vertebrate known on the planet. This is what happens waiting for the coconut farmer's trade to become profitable
@amlivemon
@chigrl
@gbponz
The West followed China into lockdown, the merits of which can be argued. Now they are imposing what will become a Western equivalent of China's social credit system.
@Jkylebass
@Halsrethink
@amlivemon
@gbponz
THE WEEK THAT WAS & THE WEEK AHEAD
Our free weekly recap of Ahead of the Herd and a look ahead. A couple of subscribers expressed thanks for the equity buy recommendation of Mar 15, highlighted herein - one said it more than paid for the annual sub.
#China
- Total debt relative to GDP now exceeds 250%, up from 140% in 2008, and Charlene Chu, a senior partner at Autonomous Research and an expert on Chinese debt, estimates that 24% of all bank loans will not be repaid
Human Rights Lawyer Emma Reilly reveals that the UN is actively sharing the names of Uyghur dissidents with the Chinese Government, telling Maajid Nawaz the actions of the UN here are 'criminal.'
@MaajidNawaz
@TeamYouTube
@GadSaad
By removing
@GadSaad
's video for the reasons given, you are in effect insulting many Western democracies that require ID for voting, and which require such for the integrity of democracies and democratic rights.
Re-instate please.
@freddiesayers
Renault's largest shareholder is the French government. The EU is simply not fit for geopolitical purpose.
Imagine what Poland and the Baltics think now.
@Jkylebass
@Halsrethink
@gbponz
@moutet
@nfergus
So who is going to stand up for the free world? Biden is, to all intents and purposes, missing in action. This is not a great time for the West. But if you are Beijing or Moscow, gosh, is 2021 turning out to be a year of gifts.
"Expert network consulting company GLG is the latest due diligence firm to cut jobs in
#China
as Beijing intensifies scrutiny of the sector on natl security grounds...The firm also laid off 3.5% of its global workforce & fired its CEO"
I highly recommend this video from
@OnTheMarginPod
with
@dampedspring
&
@nickgiva1
. Not only do I share their views, I also a grey beard, and Salomon Bros and Brevan Howard. Well done chaps. Clarity is a wonderful thing.
via
@YouTube
@BaldingsWorld
A friend of mine was discussing the sale of a tech company on a Zoom call. Within half an hour, he had received 3 communications from unknowns in China offering funding and/or more money.
These 2 charts with long-standing predictive correlations strongly suggest a 'no landing' for the US economy. Also, Yellen will goose the further econ'y ahead of the election. Postion outright or at least hedge, if you disagree. To find out more, go to: