Harald Malmgren
@Halsrethink
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Economist, geopolitical and geosecurity strategist. Co-Founder of Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, Co-Founder of Malmgren Institute
Warrenton, VA
Joined July 2013
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My 89th Birthday today! Many influencers say over 80 is too late to be trusted to guide the rest of us safely, but personally I feel I have many more years of usefulness in public discourse. Hope some of you agree.
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What I learned in personal chats with Vladimir Putin 7 years before he burst onto the world stage as Russia's dominant leader
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So many daily warnings of dollar collapse. MSM tells us foreign⁸ governments rushing to unload dollars they hold. But...but Treasury auctioned $40 billion Treasury paper today and 73.3% was taken up by foreign institutions-highest foreign share ever!
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Look for Fed in coming months to suggest that the long standing 2% "normal" inflation target should be "realisticaly set in the 3% to 4% range"
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Consenus of information I have received from Moscow is Putin seriously ill, requiring isolation. Treatment includes heavy steroids which explains swollen face. Continuous flow of steroids has behavioral effects
@amlivemon
@Halsrethink
is there a point where we should be worried that Putin isn't entirely rational?
On Fox News last night, Finland President Sauli Niinistö said that Putin was isolated, distancing himself from people & not in an entirely healthy mental state.
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I reccomend reading this very clear exposition of what Putin aims to do in mysteriously attacking what he calls "the imaginary wealth of Europe", and the likely responses of the ECB plus the logical response mechanism of the Euro monetary system
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As I see what poIwer structure Xi has wrought, my conclusion is China is now uninvestible for American corporations...and much higher risk for US asset managers
Xi's consolidation of centralized power over his conomy takes place at a time of heightened stress in relations with US. This will incentivize tightening grip over US business operations inside China--eventually threatening US corporate parent control...& revenue flow to parent
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DEMAND COLLAPSE
History will say that pandemic-related supply chain issues not only hid a collapse in demand, they drove a collapse in demand due to higher prices.
We are on the cusp of the largest and fastest demand collapse in U.S. history.
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Deep in the background, this
Samsung decision to make semiconductors in the USA is an outcome I have been quietly working on for a very long time: SAMSUNG to choose Taylor, Texas, for $17 Billion Chip-Making Factory
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Putin just warned "Weapons without parallel in the world are being put on combat duty." These ominous words escalate threats far beyond Biden Administration cautious Ukraine calculations today.
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A China-Russia-US-Ukraine Grand Deal in the making? Consider: Xi negotiating/pressing Putin to halt combat; this requires Zelelensky also to halt; Xi threat to give lethal arms to Russia forces Biden to pressure Zelensky to agree cease fire arranged by Xi?
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A Covid variant attacked my entire digestive system and shut it down in an attempt to kill me before Thanksgiving! Fortunately rushed to hospital for revitalization, after many days of decline, and now reemerged as the unconquerable Viking I have been all these many years
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0ops! Powell has to explain to Congress today how the Fed is planning to overcome inflation with rate hikes just when Atlanta Fed says expected GDP growth rate to be 0.0% and 2s-10s spread slipped lower this morningto 34 bps...
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Tried to warn global cooling cycle likely began 2020 and, if similar to past solar minima cycles over centuries, might be bookmarked by 11 years cooling followed by 11 years temps climbing back to 2020--but longer possible. Few ready to consider this inconvenient possibility
Dozens of ships stuck in Arctic as ice freezes early in reverse of recent warming winters
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Central banks now own almost half of global GDP? Is this a market economy, or something else: Economies&markets guided by non-elected, supposedly independent wizards?
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My personal, informed network advises me Johnson&,Johnson likely to be 1st with Covid-19 vaccine next 3-4 weeks, already planning testing&production, public availability before next winter's higher virus risks. BUT present econ shutdown effects likely continue into 2021 start
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Rogoff at Davos "The greatest threat lies in the nexus of undisclosed leverage and liquidity mismatch in the shadow banking sector, which has displaced traditional banking and largely avoided the control of regulators." Inadequate global liquidity is coming, again!
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Fed indiscriminatingly seeking to save every business, even zombie companies, fallen angels&junk debtors, seems predicated on idea economy was "in a good place" before virus strike. Not true. Slowdown evident before Covid-19. Fed supporting junk!
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Am told Powell has become distrustful of the data generated by Fed staff as forecasts have been repeatedly proven inaccurate & far from outcomes. So Powell is attentive to data, but whose data? Who does he rely on? Friends at Blackrock? Or Citadel? NY Fed or NY banks?
I tend to see Powell as non-ideological and data driven. If this is true, it would be a shame for ego to displace prudent policy.
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A year ago I said EVs were a fad that would soon fade. Now we have global surplus production but demand crashing. For decades I worked closely with Toyota global management, and saw their continuous advances with hydrogen propulsion, now becoming commercially viable.
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Just a word of caution to investors "prepared for war": wars are brutally expensive, escalating borrowing while crowding out most private investment
Most investment portfolios are totally unprepared for war.
In times of conflict inflation rises, gold and commodities outperform, while stocks, bonds, and cash underperform. A typical portfolio of 60/40 + cash is the worst portfolio, particularly on a real return basis. Thread.
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What Putin said to Tucker Carlson about his vision of Russia was essentially the same as he had laid out to me in my personal meetings with him in St Petersburg 42 years ago, about which I wrote in a couple of articles for Unherd after his Ukraine invasion
@RichardLan24
@DrewPavlou
He actually, genuinely believes this stuff. There are first hand accounts from credible people from way before he became President of him being an adept of this kind Tsarist, chauvinist irredentism. It's a solid 30 year track record. By
@Halsrethink
.
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@visegrad24
It has been quite a while since I have listened to a politician speak so eloquently with the voice that radiates such confidence and determination as Georgia Melloni.
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My conlusion China had become uninvestible not meant to be sensational. Just a sober assessment of the new Politburo Standing Committee composition together with 60+ years leading USG trade relations, & years advising US&Asian big manufacturers & global institutional investors
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Xi Jinping came to power as Deng ver 2.0 but now going full Mao as his economy failing. Time for wealth redistribution? ...and soon currency devaluation???
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This is a very important essay on the real purpose of China's digital Yuan: to eliminate privacy and enable comprehensive control of everyone within its social credit system. Be forewarned: a cashless society within a CBDC could provide the same power to any other government
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Stunned by a longtime French friend on the phone today when he said LePen likely to win. Macron will keep most of those who voted for him in 1st round, but many others will sit out 2nd round or go for "anyone but Macron". A yellow vest shock?
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Hmm. If 2/3 of world Bitcoin mining done in China, doesn't that suggest high political risk for both individuals and institutional Bitcoin investors?
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My gut instinct is France and its banks at the epicenter of coming Eurozone financial earthquake
@jensnordvig
opened a must read thread today wondering what is happening in European financial markets that reveal extraordinary movements last few days. Seems to me earthquake early tremors, cracks appearing many places prior to "main destructive event"
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Alas. Had we just one member of House or Senate who could explain money and inflation with such clarity and simplicity as did this Canadian MP
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Interestingly, German government has chosen to purchase "Block 4" nuclear weapons capable version of F35s. F35s acquired or being acquired by other European nations are not nuclear capable, except for Netherlands. Seems Germans finally fully awakening to Russian threat
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As I explained in the past, in my meetings with Putin 1990-91 he repeatedly emphasized his belief that Russia needed a new Peter the Great. Long been his dream
"People often make the mistake of thinking that Putin’s goal is to resurrect the Soviet Union. And yet it is not Stalin’s Soviet Union for which Putin hankers. It is the rising Russian Empire of Peter the Great."
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Merging DB with Commerzbank will not save Germany from the coming DB implosion; most likely the German government will have to bail it out or put it into conservatorship by the government, ignoring rules about saving banks it imposes on rest of Eurozone
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A new BOJ Governor April 1 might shock global bonds. My intel: Arguably most influential former Governor Fukui, whom I have known since Greenspan&Trichet days, strongly promoting Yamaguchi, openly hawkish Kuroda critic. Possible BOJ shock wave coming?
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DXY ripped higher at Fridsy's end. Now what? Fed curtailing QE will reduce dollar liquidity in Eurodollar market. As borrowing leverage against $-based collateral in Eurodollar market far higher than in US, we will see increasing shortage of dollars needed to close margins
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Started Tweeting when suffering long confrontation with Stage IV Cancer, continued w/o any promotions, but now have found followers # blew past 20K. Need to write more, may not always respond. Not disinterest. Just getting old, need to use my remaining time more carefully
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Thanks. I came to Twitter as therapy during a long battle with Stage IV cancer years ago. After success I just stuck around, not selling anything, just trying to illuminate what seemed to be obscured or misleading, and provide objective insights I might add
@Halsrethink
I wanted take this moment to give my deepest thanks for the perspectives you have given us.
Your feed has been a pillar of my development in understanding our world. Happy Easter.
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This may sound harsh at the end of her long service, but in years ahead it will likely be said she led Germany into the embrace of Russia and China
@nglinsman
@GrayConnolly
@chigrl
@Halsrethink
@BRyvkin
@pietercleppe
She has been the worst Chancellor since Germany exited WW II. Lay citizens simply don't realize it fully yet.
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May sound too gloomy to some, but overpriced mkts have still not adjusted for inevitable deep earnings declines rest of 2020 (&beyond). Maybe a little short squeezing left, but Fed can't hold mkts up forever--unless it buys stocks
* HEDGE FUND FIRM ELLIOTT SAYS GLOBAL STOCKS COULD TUMBLE AS MUCH AS 50% FROM FEBRUARY HIGH, ROUT NOT OVER - LETTER
* ELLIOTT SAYS IT DOES NOT SEE 'CORNUCOPIA OF SHINING BARGAINS' IN STOCK MARKET - LETTER
(via
@reuters
)
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Western news coverage of Xi Jinping ignoring new grip of Chinese central planning. Party officials to be inserted into private businesses and all science&tech projects! Objective is all public&private decisions consistent with central plan. That did not work so well for USSR.
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Germany will fall far from its throne in the Eurozone economy...and will not be able to return, as current energy triggered industrial shutdowns add to hollowing out that was already under way as big manufacturers redeployed, now hastened by need to decouple with China
1/ I think many Germans don't realize how the energy crisis directly threatens Germany's future as a prosperous country. Germany has a huge bureaucracy and social-welfare apparatus, and provides comparatively generous subsidies for the arts.
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US Dollar has long been king, but now looking imperial. € moving to parity...or below? Dollar index this AM at 107.81 and rising...currency earthquake in motion?
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I can say from personal experience that Putin is personally hypnotic in the passion of his own vision of centuries of history and his role in contemporary developments in many nations around the world. Good or evil, he is unique among world leaders today
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When recovering from Stage IV aggressive cancer new tech treatment 5yrs ago
@DrPippaM
suggested I use Twitter while frustrated w/inability to sustain concentrated effort. Never promoting myself,found today passed 10,000 followers. Thank you all for finding my thoughts of value.
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5 days of deep market decline. Relief bounce likely...But then deeper fall: 1. Decline in world industrial output & trade volume continues. Export reliant economies suffer. 2. Covid19 continues to impede supply chains while alternative suppliers/producers sought. No V rebound 1/2
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@amlivemon
Many rumors flying about Fed pivot timing and Fed desire to resist upward surge in equity market. I believe Powell wants to hold rates up with no pivot well into future, to encourage steep equities decline this year. Does not want legacy Fed let wealth gap grow more
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Agreed. From earliest moments of QE under Bernanke I said QE would be recorded in history as a massive experiment that went awry. At that time I was roundly criticised by several macroeconomic elitists as irreverent and anchored in obsolete academic economic thinking
When a central bank is purchasing the vast majority of sovereign bond issuances significantly below market rates it is incentivising reckless indebtedness and forcing savers to go to much riskier assets. Both are negative outcomes of QE that outweigh the alleged benefits.
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Simply put: China does not have sufficient arable land to feed its people.
Notably, these are spread out across multiple countries, China excepted. China’s arable land-to-population ratio is 0.074. Ours is 1.09. This is what I mean when I say we are LONG food, and China is SHORT food.
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As I said before, Greenspan & Volcker personally told me they divested as Fed Chair, feeling ethically necessary to hold only shortest duration Treasury paper. Whatever happened to divestment idea while managing our nation's money?
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Had a few exchanges of views w/ 4th Turning's Neil Howe, was just asked by
@ttmygh
Grant Williams if I could agree to a joint interview with Neil for RealVisionTV to be filmed next week on cycles&waves of past decades&what to expect ahead. I accepted at once, a rare opportunity
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Is that pesky solar minimum global cooling cycle beginning to show itself?
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Unfortunately these French dreams of Europe awakening with its own new identity is just a dream. The Euro is totally reliant on the Fed swap lines backstop, without which EU integration to date would wither
Europe is awakening
. .... !.....
The US is a sinking ship.
Ukraine has long lost the war
Nato is fighting Russia
As proxy for the US
Not worth it
@Halsrethink
@vtchakarova
@DrPippaM
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Am tiring of politicians boasting the US economy is booming. Stock market has been booming, boosted by Fed policies, buybacks, & a small # of tech-driven corps--but ECONOMY IS NOT BOOMING. It is struggling. Bond market knows this
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On the day of my latest birthday, unshaven & hair uncut since before Covid virus, visitors commented could not decide whether I looked like a hippy or a Philharmonic conductor in my Blue Ridge foothills hideaway. My hair just keeps growing. After Covid, maybe in fashion?
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One of 2 Svalbard cables weeks ago cut in 2 places=no accident. What happens to US economy or markets if 2nd cable cut, disabling many US satellites and swathe of US internet? Was cable cut intentional warning?
A DOD war room veteran of Cuban missile crisis, we spent days on possible escalations, even war. Has Biden team considered escalation if Russia does attack UKR? US sanctions follow to hurt RU economy. RU responds to damage US economy or financial market? And then?
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MMT seems to me to be yet another historic example of humans trying to devise a perpetual motion machine that works without energy or fuel
It would require some sort of insane MMT to develop economic framework in which a perpetual deficit country can generate capital to afford competing in trade & investment with a perpetual surplus one.
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Biden foreign policy team full of hubris about dealing with Putin, ignoring quiet efforts of UK and several other nations to find some kind of exit ramp for Putin. Faced with possible humiliation, it is my judgement that he will seriouly consider "extreme" countermeasures.
@GaryHaubold
@Halsrethink
@JackFarley96
@chigrl
I worry that Rice and Nuland refuse to offer Putin an off-ramp. This is Obama Redux 2.0, yet with a greater scope for giving Putin zero options.
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Scholz has the delusion that the great German economy will soon bounce back and be able to pull rest of EU into cohesive recovery. German industry more likely to hollow out, leaving no growth engine
German Chancellor Scholz wrote in a guest article for "FAZ" that Russia's war against Ukraine has reduced the European and international peace order of the past decades to rubble. Thus, the EU must become a "geopolitical EU" and Germany should assume responsibility for Europe.
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Myself a Class of '57 Yale graduate, I regret having to admit Richard is absolutely correct that the group of Yale economists assembled to address the Great Financial Crisis were totally wrong in concluding "saving the banks in 2008 was the best policy response"
Think how cheap it was for the bankers/1% to buy Yale's reputation and set up a "center" to say "saving the banks in 2008 was the best possible policy response" ... and have PhD Economists lining up to say "yes it was" ... a true show of how little Economists know about the
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IQ very high, EQ near zero. Conversation limited to purpose of encounter. No small talk.. Seems to be thrilled when a business adversary is beaten down with force. Definitely not charming.
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The French election might be simplistically be summarized as "democracy won, fascism failed" but the reality is French economy now enters deep slide into politically unncontrollable debt, threatening the foundations of the EU Commission, the ECB and the Euro
Beano type verdict, I’m afraid. It’s tactical victory to have kept the RN at bay. But France is still in no man’s land politically, the RN rise is not over, Mélenchon is an unreconstructed Trot, and Macron will seek to bypass him. Dont see much to make hay about here looking fwd
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About China &Taiwan: Xi Jinping feeling growing resistance to making his leadership “permanent” at October CCP Plenary. High risk for Xi to initiate military action on Taiwan before Plenary. Many deaths to explain. Possible failure as US, Japan , Australia stand in way
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Warning: Fedex says "global growth has slowed but we are very surprised by the magnitude of the headwind, which is what might be seen in a severe recession." Fedex knows volume of global components&sub-assemblies before we see finished products
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Brazilian wildfires alarms ignore cause. When Trump tariffs began China retaliated against US soybeans, turned to other suppliers. China encouraged Brazil to increase production to diminish future China supply risk. Fires opening new production a response to Trump tariffs
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Credibility of officials across much of government falling into doubt. Briefings & policy explanations on national security, economy performance, Fed monetary "guidance", vaccines&Healthcare advice, climate change, immigration, law enforcement...all suspect. Who/what to trust?
The disconnect in these social vaccine pressure campaigns is that for many people, "vaccine hesitancy" is less about safety or efficacy, than it is a proxy for one's collapsing faith in institutions.
Lockdowns and performative compliance by politicians spent their moral capital.
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In politics the word "never" has no meaning
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US intel would have known Wuhan virus history. from start. Moreover, Fort Dietrich watching every bio threat worldwide would know, as would its Canada partner Winnipeg National Microbiology Laboratory, which had close research ties to Wuhan Level 4 Lab. Intel just not trusted?
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Putin's personal determination to be a man of history should not be underestimated, even if what he does might seem madness to everyone else.
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World financial mkt reporting today spiced by refs to possible US-China trade truce. My renewed warning: US-China deal or truce will not alter world industrial production&orders contraction trend which began 2018&will continue 2019&2020. No world trade rebound in sight
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This portrayal of Yellen as a populist is amazing, since she was, like Bernanke, an enabler of dramatic rise in wealth of top 1% while leaving rest of nation in stagnation or decline in income
Janet Yellen was a true populist, representing the interests of ordinary people
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This FT report on China new hypersonic missile capability also notes US vulnerability to missiles coming across South Pole. I recall signing off a JCS WSEG warning on that trajectory 57 yrs ago!!! via
@FT
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Saying Western sanctions a declaration of war a should not surprise. If the sanctions do cripple Russia we snould not be surprised if he retaliates, such as cyberattack on stock market servers
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So we discourage higher achievement by better students&penalize their performance records so that less hard working students feel better about themselves? NYC decides to get all students on the road to Idiocracy!
BREAKING: New York City announces it will be banning students from achieving straight As, citing it is exclusionary to those with diverse grades
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Looks to me Russian attacks in Ukraine will reconfigure with focus not only on Donbas but consolidation of grip on entire Black Sea coast to enable Russian land access to Transniestria and Moldova.
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Albert is right, global food supply disruptions set in motion by Russia-Ukraine conflict threaten China also. XI Jinping must give much greater attention to food supply chains as a national security priority far greater than Taiwan
And because of this… China attempting to take Taiwan by force is a no-go… food security is real…
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China's decision to to take a hard line with Ausralia is
backfiring big time. Little noticed by MSM, Australia has become active participant in US-UK defense industry,
building submarines. US&UK just announced providing nuclear sub technology to Aussies
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I was born in the simplest context of immigrant mom and dad scraping by in The Great Depression with no relatives of our own. When I was assigned to work with Christian Herter, former Governor of Massachusets and an aristocratic beneficiary of the Standard Oil breakup, he said at
@Halsrethink
Your are always appreciated. Be careful to not fall into the DC bubble which forgets there is a real world out there
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Long overdue, optimism has finally run down, to be replaced by declining earnings many months into the future. This time no Fed put. Deflation will take down stock markets along with all other assets retaining value until now.
*Earnings are now contracting across all US indices
As I’ve written before - there’s a global earnings recession in play and looks to only deepen (ICYMI: 👇🏻)
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As Easter weekend a time for pause to think. Dollar index now hovering at over 100, and Fed set not only to hike rates but withdraw liquidity from markets, dollar shortage to build, USD to go higher, extreme global public&private debt management strains ahead
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Agreed
The more I learn, the deeper my conviction that China's accession to the WTO was one of the single greatest miscalculations in US foreign policy history.
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CORRECTED: Surprising"real" GDP growth rate of 3.18% is a contrived illusion. BEA used a UNIQUE inflation deflator of 0.64%! More commonly used deflator BLS CPI-U inflation rate 2.27%. If BLS deflator used, GDP growth rate 1.56% (Half BEA #) (Part 1 of 3 sobering observations...
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It is reported that Pompeo flew all the way to Riyadh for a 15 minute meeting. In high diplomacy, such brief one on one meetings usually held to say something that will never be written down, most of the time to cover up something both sides want covered up without any record
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By saying "a significant possibility that there will be a downturn" Powell is signaling he is not afraid of a downturn, implying a downturn would not necessarily call for a pivot. My gut tells me he really wants a serious recession and major negative correction for equities
"There’s a significant possibility that there will be a downturn,"
#Powell
said. "It’s going to take some time.
#Inflation
has proven to be more persistent than we expected and not less,"
|
@CNBC
#Fed
#InterestRates
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Germany, Japan, China &South Korea have long relied on mercantilist export driven growth, but I believe that model will no longer work well as supply chains shorten, manufacturing becomes more dispersed, decoupling policies grip, Industry 4.0 unfolds worldwide
3/3
The fact is that large, persistent trade surpluses are almost always the consequences of implicitly mercantilist policies, in which international "competitiveness" is achieved by policies that effectively force households directly or indirectly to subsidize manufacturing.
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Zero hedge today ran the entire text of my article on early chats with Putin 7 years before he became all powerful President of Russia!
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Repeating: China must feed 1/5 of humanity with only 1/10 of world's arable land
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#China
accounts for about one-fifth of humanity but feeds them on only one-tenth of the world’s arable land. So
#FoodSecurity
is a top-of-mind concern for
#Xi
and colleagues.
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How is this thinking possible at the highest level in our government?
Ok… so Biden’s WH thinks shutting down oil pipelines and firing truckers don’t affect supply chains and inflation… this will be a fun 6 months.
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Need for decoupling with the intricate industrial complex of China is clear, but there is no on-off switch. Supply chain reconfiguration will likely be multi-year process, with many disruptions along the way
We have shortages in the US & there are ships waiting to be unloaded unable to enter our ports. This is what “globalization” has wrought. We need to do-couple from China and re-shore our critical supply chains ASAP.
@JJCarafano
@Schmitt_ILaw
@SlawomirDebski
@jteurope
@general_ben
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Stock buybacks were illegal until Reagan's SEC opened the gates. Nobody willing to stop it now b/c that would crash stock mkts. But it is cannibalizing much of our industry&must be ended in next crisis
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Volume of Tweets about Ukraine & Putin's day to day moves has grown dramatically, but I see broad failure to recognize full scale Cold War has begun which will be with us not only coming months but for next several years--Germany no longer relevant, except as potential spoiler
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This image of a single human cell reveals complexity far beyond my imagination until now. In awe, profoundly alters my conception of what a human is at a most fundamental level-- and not has me wondering about the nature of activity within a single cell!
The most detailed representation of a human cell to date, obtained by radiography, nuclear magnetic resonance and cryoelectronic microscopy.
~ Valerie DeBourdeilles
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In hospital several day beating back pneumonia and regaining forward momentum, now feeling reenergized
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I was often placed by Presidents in position to "correct" a Kissinger statement or action. To keep peace between us I never disclosed required HK adjustments. He responded by never acknowledging our differences. HK was vengeful. I avoided public clashes while he was still active
@DrPippaM
@JanGold_
@Halsrethink
Why the *!?&$# are you only talking about this now?!
Seems like something that should have been fused in your realpolitik analysis over the past ten years of listening to you.
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I am finding tiresome frequent Tweeters pounding on dollar's demise in with who will buy US debt now? Foreign institutions bought 80% of US Treasury 10 yr auction few days ago; and bought 75% of today's 20 yr auction. Non-US buyers biggest at auctions
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Many of America's most noted economists, including Larry Summers, chose to igno
distribution effects of macroeconomic & monetary policies they pursue. The widening wealth gap seems to them accidental & of minor concern, though it is a direct consequence of their policies
"$2,000 checks would be a pretty serious mistake."
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says larger stimulus checks to Americans could risk overheating the economy
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Yesterday Chancellor Scholz abruptly restored a vigorous, pro-NATO defense policy, without elaborate party coalition talks. What shocked Berlin into action? Was it just Putin putting tactical nuke weapons on alert, or discovery Putin's nuke targets were NATO, not UKR?
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All central bankers & heads of Treasuries together at IMF/World Bank annual meeting in Washington this week, just as cracks growing in global bond markets. Inflation sideswiped as threatening breakage of world credit markets takes center stage
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Just discovered my followers reached 34K, same number as my far more charming, engaging social media celebrity daughter
@DrPippaM
. We agree on coming technology driven cyclic upturn, but differ on how soon. An Old Guy, I see debt, deflation, then stagflation first, rebound later
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A DOD war room veteran of Cuban missile crisis, we spent days on possible escalations, even war. Has Biden team considered escalation if Russia does attack UKR? US sanctions follow to hurt RU economy. RU responds to damage US economy or financial market? And then?
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