Andrew A. Michta
@andrewmichta
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Director of the Scowcroft Strategy Initiative and Senior Fellow at @ACScowcroft at @AtlanticCouncil . All views my own. Retweet doesn’t equal endorsement.
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Joined March 2010
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My book on
@NATO
with Paal Sigurd Hilde, published by
@UofMPress
is now available:
http://t.co/BYVo3kgEfe
http://t.co/VOjDujlwAx
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I don't worry about
#Ukraine
holding against RUS aggression. I don't worry about our ability to continue to supply weapons and support to UKR. I worry about politicians too eager to cut a deal with Putin to stop the fighting. This war needs to be won before negotiations begin.
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Reportedly, Russia asked Turkey for 200,000 body armor kits & 500,000 sets of winter gear for its soldiers, but Turkey refused. If confirmed, this tells you all you need to know about the condition of Putin’s military. As the saying goes, armies run on logistics. Enough said….
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I don’t know how much longer the war in
#Ukraine
will last. I don’t know how much more brutal it will get and how many more innocent Ukrainians will die to defend their freedom. But I know this: When all is said and done I will ask: Whose side were you on?
#ArmUkraineNow
1/
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I watched Russian tv again.The arrogance and the fury of Russian so-called “journalists” is mind-boggling. I wish Western politicians would watch it instead of getting intel digests afterwards. Understand who we are up against. We aren’t part of the same civilization with Russia.
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As I watch Russian deployments in Belarus & Donbas I’m increasingly convinced that another major RUS offensive is about to begin. If so, it may prove to be decisive.
#Ukraine
needs to do its utmost to hold out against it, and once this RUS offensive fails, anything is possible.
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I’ve been working national security for 35 yrs. Never have I seen a more clear case of just war than
#Ukraine
’s self-defense against Putin’s
#Russia
. If we fail UKR, all our talk about values is meaningless. I look forward to seeing Putin tried for war crimes.
@olgatokariuk
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🧵 A word of advice for all those "realists" among Western elites who oppose support for
#Ukraine
: Finally, once and for all bury the Yalta mindset. Understand the Russia is no more entitled to a sphere of influence than a gangster is entitled to keep the spoils of a robbery. 1/
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Putin is desperate for an operational pause to arrest Ukrainian momentum and rebuild his military. This is why the Russians are seeking talks with the Ukrainians to gain time to refit. President
@ZelenskyyUa
understands this and the Ukrainians will not pause.
#StandWithUkraine
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The 2014 Minsk agreement gave Putin time to prepare this invasion. Today his military is struggling &needs another peace deal to gain time to rearm. Don’t give it to him. The West needs to give
#Ukraine
all the arms/support it needs & be ready to do more itself. Now is the moment
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This is not Putin’s war — it’s Russia’s war. When it’s over, Russians will never be able to live this down: the criminality of what their leaders and their military have done in
#Ukraine
will remain the defining characteristic of how Russians are perceived going forward.
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Russia is the aggressor murdering innocent people in
#Ukraine
. It must be decisively defeated so that there will never be another Putin spinning the narrative about a "betrayal of the great Russian people" or any other Russian version of the Dolchstoßlegende - it is simply a lie.
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First and foremost, let's be honest with ourselves about how misguided European Russia policy was -- all thirty years of it. And let's say it loud and clear that Russia is a fascist neo-imperial state, and that talking about "Russia's legitimate security concerns" is nuts. 6/
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As part of de-Putinization, Europe urgently needs to de-Russify its economies, especially the energy sector. The EU should ASAP set firm target dates for cutting off Russian energy supplies altogether. Enough equivocating.
#StandWithUkraine
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I worry about European politicians pushing
#Ukraine
to make a deal w/Putin. If they succeed it will be a repeat of 2014: a stalemate and then another war several yrs down the line. Are we too afraid to articulate a strategy that will take Ukraine (and all democracies) to victory?
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If confirmed, this is the worst moment for such a decision by Berlin. It sends exactly the wrong message. It should be reversed immediately.
#ArmUkraineNow
#StandWithUkraine
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I have a palpable sense that ever since Putin issued his veiled threat to use nuclear weapon, key capitals in Europe are again going wobbly on their support for
#Ukraine
. What comes to mind is this: If Europe fails to stand fast now, it will pay a much higher price in a few years
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I’m at a loss why there is hesitation about the future status of
#Crimea
, with some analysts arguing that
#Ukraine
may need to give up Crimea as part of postwar settlement. If Russia retains Crimea Ukraine will never be secure. Why is it so difficult to grasp?
#StandWithUkraine
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We are in a twilight struggle against an enemy that doesn't live by our rules. This is one of those moments in history where one needs to step up, defeat the enemy, and only then talk about a postwar settlement. Let's stop buying into the Russian narrative. 7/
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Analysts like to talk about "inflection point in history," often exaggerating the importance of a given event. But the war in
#Ukraine
is truly a system-transforming war. We are watching an event that happens once in several generations. It sets the course of history. 3/
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I’m struck by the lack of understanding in Europe’s political circles (outside the Eastern flank& the UK) as to what RUS victory in
#Ukraine
would mean for European security; how it would reverberate in the Indo-Pacific. Is nobody capable of even rudimentary strategic assessment?
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3. he butchered the Syrians in Aleppo - he returned Russia to MENA with little or no objection from the West. And had
#Ukraine
's
@ZelenskyyUa
not shown real leadership and the Ukrainian people real patriotism, where do you think Europe would be today on this conflict? 2/
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It's time we stop repeating clichés about Russian history. My favorite: RUS has experienced military invasions across every frontier; hence, it is "defensive" about its periphery. In reality, RUS has pursued an expansionist policy for centuries to amass a transcontinental empire.
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These contortions are truly painful to watch, while each day Ukrainians are murdered and their country destroyed by the
#Russian
invader. You hear so much about common values in Europe, but I’m beginning to ask myself if it’s just talk.
#ArmUkraineNow
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As the brutality of RUS war against
#Ukraine
increases, many among Western elites increasingly argue that Kyiv should agree to a cease fire in place to end the carnage. To advocate this is strategic myopia of the highest order, for such a deal would be tantamount to RUS victory.
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Putin continues to set “escalation redlines” in
#Ukraine
because the West has not shed its residual post-Cold War fear of RUS. It’s time to remember the (1) Putin’s Russia is a pale shadow of the former Soviet Union and (2) his military is already stretched to a breaking point.
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“Poland may be replacing Germany as the indispensable NATO ally in Europe. The U.S. has some 10,000 service members in the country and could consider more as their presence has popular support.” Via
@WSJ
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Much of the turmoil at home reflects the decline of our educational system. Our academia has become a place where neo-Marxist indoctrination & “grievance studies” have replaced the imperative to educate young men & women in the tenets of American republicanism and Western values.
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On Thursday I went through the hell of the German Autobahn system, where travel was basically limping from one Stau to the next. Today I find myself on a DeutscheBahn ICE train that has not moved for about an hour, stuck in the middle of nowhere. Draw your own conclusions…
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President Macron’s visit to
#China
will likely be remembered as one of the greatest blunders by a major European power since the end of the Cold War. Xi’s goal is to fracture the transatlantic link. Why France would play into it is the question. Cui bono?
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The next
@NATO
SecGen should come from one of our Eastern flank countries—they understand the existential nature of the threat. ALCON: Please speak up if you agree.
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The West has given
#Ukraine
enough to survive, but not enough to win.This strategy, though it seems reasonable today, will likely require the world to pay a much higher price in blood and treasure in the coming years. My latest for
@AtlanticCouncil
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🧵As I watch the Iranian attack on Israel, it is becoming clear that we are less and less able to deter our adversaries. Russia, Hamas, Houthis and now Iran. It’s time to ask ourselves why revisionist state and non-state actors believe they can attack and get away with it. 1/6
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If we fail to help
#Ukraine
defend itself & defeat RUS invaders, pls don’t talk to me anymore about “our values,” “rule of law” or our “rules-based int’l order.” This war is a system-transforming war, so let’s have the courage to do what’s right:
#ArmUkraineNow
Enough said. 3/
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🧵As I watch the war in
#Ukraine
unfold, it is too soon to pass definitive judgment on the overall performance of the Russian military. It is clear though that the forces RUS will field when this war ends will be different than those that went into Ukraine last February. 1/6
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Depending on how the West responds - especially Europe as the US support for
#Ukraine
has been there for all to see - will determine whether the European dream a Continent "whole and free and at peace" will become reality, or if Europe will once again pay a much higher price. 4/
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🧵I have read reports of leaks that Germany and France are talking about offering
#Ukraine
a security guarantee if it agrees to peace talks with Russia/
Assuming these reports are accurate, let me point out a few basic facts: 1. Russia has shown no interest in peace talks. 1/
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Massacres committed by Russian troops in
#Ukraine
all but guarantee that this will be a long war, regardless of how near-term campaigns unfold. It is no longer about territory or Putin’s neo-imperial ambition. This is now a war for the survival of the Ukrainian nation.
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I say this because there is a whiff of 1938 about Europe's political stasis today. In a recent piece for
@wsj
I called it a "crisis of disbelief" -- the unwillingness to accept that for three decades the West deluded itself. So, my advice (take it for what it's worth): 5/
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Russian culture must be seen in its totality -- it's not just Dostoyevsky, Tolstoy or ballet; it's first and foremost the Gulag, prisons, firing squads, rape and torture. It's the culture of violence and theft as a mode of governance. It's an empire awash in blood. 3/
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Democracies are not perfect, but we certainly are better than the Russian and Chinese alternatives. And the Ukrainians are fighting on our behalf, they want to be a part of us. They deserve our respect and all the material and political support we can muster.
#ArmUkraineNow
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🧵Eastern Europe became free after the implosion of the Soviet empire because the Russian military was pushed out of the region. The last 20yrs of EU energy policy of increasing reliance on Russian gas gave Moscow an opening to return to Europe, with results in plain view. 1/
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Listen to Finns, Poles, or Balts. They have lived next door to Russia for centuries and paid an awful price while the West often looked the other way. It's time "realists" among Western policy elites grow up and end the "what-about-ism" nonsense when it comes to Russia. 5/
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I hope Russians understand that what Putin is doing will become a permanent stain on their nation. Just like Germany was stained by Hitler’s crimes in WWII, Putin’s unprovoked attack on
#Ukraine
is on you. UKR civilians murdered and UKR cities leveled are Russian crimes. Period.
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“Forty percent of Russia's GDP is now gone thanks to foreign companies leaving Russia, and almost none of them are set to return soon.” Stay the course. It can be done.
#StandWithUkraine
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🧵I’ve read comparisons of our current security predicament to what happened in the late 1930s. There are indeed compelling similarities: Much like before WWII when Germany and Japan positioned themselves to attack, we have two powers, Russia and China, gearing up for war.1/8
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There are moments in history when equivocating won’t do. The war in
#Ukraine
is one such moment. So no more the “on-the-other-hand” BS; no more the usual “what about-isms.” This is as straightforward as it gets: Are you ready to do the right thing and
#ArmUkraineNow
? 2/
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Reportedly, Moscow plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026. This is “russkiy mir” Putin has prepared for
#Ukraine
—state-sponsored terror reminiscent of Stalinism.
#StandWithUkraine
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I have known John Mearsheimer for close to thirty years. We have been friends and I hope we remain friends. But what John has been saying about the war in
#Ukraine
simply off base. I just listened to another lecture by John on this conflict and he is plain wrong.
#StandWithUkraine
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Russia had leveraged escalation dominance in
#Ukraine
because we have communicated repeatedly that our fear of escalation trumps our determination to help UKR win. As a result, Russia keeps on escalating, while we are self-deterring.This is no way to win in a war.
#ArmUkraineNow
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According to RUS media, ColGen Mikhail Mizintsev, Head of the National Defense Control Center admitted that Russia has deported over 1 million Ukrainian citizens (incl. over 183K children) since the beginning of of the war. This is ethnic cleansing.
@JJCarafano
@SlawomirDebski
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🧵I just reviewed a longer piece on the war in
#Ukraine
written by an eminent Western analyst. I was struck by how differently it sounded from what I hear from Ukrainians. Westerners tend to speak in conceptual generalities about the need to ensure that UKR remains sovereign.1/6
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So, let's ask European politicians to focus on fulfilling their weapons pledges to
#Ukraine
, let's stop brainstorming such "peace talks" solutions as they have no credibility and no enforcement mechanism. Let's give
#Ukraine
what it needs to win.
#ArmUkraineNow
/End
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Reportedly, Russian artillery fires daily 40,000-60,000 rounds - the figure cited by some pundits as proof
#Ukraine
can’t win. But what’s rarely noted is that RUS defense industry can’t keep up keep up with such demand, while Soviet-era stocks are running out.
#StandWithUkraine
️
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🧵As I follow Russian media and the tenor of Russian politics, I am increasingly convinced that we are potentially looking at a historic inflection point in
#Russia
. I would call it "de-Westernization"-- an effort to return Russia's self-definition to its pre-European roots. 1/6
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🧵I have been back in DC for 1.5 months now, and I'm struck by the apparent lack of urgency in our national security policy debates when it comes to addressing the threats the US and its allies face, as they continue to multiply at speed. 1.
#UkraineWar
is in its 2nd year. 1/9
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Watch how the Russians behave in
#Ukraine
, where premeditated destruction and murder is the rule, and ask yourself if that this someone you would like to invite to dinner, or even live next door to. Bottom line: Europe will know no peace until Russia is expelled from Europe. 4/
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Considering the motivation of Its soldiers, the quality of military leadership & now the arrival of Western weapons that outperform RUS equipment, the odds are
#Ukraine
will not only stop RUS attacks but also liberate its national territory. This will be a game-changer in Europe.
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During the last 20 yrs Putin’s Russia embedded itself in Europe, acquiring assets, running influence operations and breeding corruption. One key consequence of RUS invasion of
#Ukraine
must be Europe’s genuine “de-Putinization,” going beyond declaratory statements.
@IlvesToomas
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This is the largest conventional war since 1945 triggered by Russia’s neo-imperial fantasy. If Europe is to be secure and at peace again, the back of Russian imperialism must be broken once and for all. If Russia doesn’t suffer a strategic defeat in UKR, it will attack again. 5/6
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When I read such pronouncements about
#Ukraine
by the Hungarian president I have to ask why his country is still in
@NATO
& the
#EU
. If Putin’s Russia is your ally of choice, don’t let the door hit you in your behind on the way out….
#StandWithUkraine
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🧵It is uncanny how many nat'l security analysts cling to the "short war" illusion when it comes to the war in
#Ukraine
. Throughout history the most bloody and transformative wars were thought of this way. The war in Ukraine is already a long war; it's been ongoing since 2014.1/7
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“The West needs to accept that the threat from Russia is not going away. Russia’s imperial ambitions extend beyond just Ukraine. They go deeper than just Putin.” Worth reading via
@ForeignAffairs
#StandWithUkraine
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🧵As I watch the brutal war unfold in
#Ukraine
, I need to make the following point for those who believe that somehow the US and its allies have full agency when it comes to what happens there-how it ends. True, since the US is the principal source of aid, we have influence. 1/6
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Any peace deal now would amount to a Russian victory. Pushing for negotiations now would amount to another case of appeasement towards Russia. 2. No country in Europe has military power sufficient to guarantee
#Ukraine
's security without the United States at the table. 2/
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Words matter: For those who use the expression “
@NATO
expansion”- pls stop. It’s “NATO enlargement” as we called it in the 1990s to indicate these were sovereign decisions. At the same time Russian propaganda used the word “expansion.” Pls don’t let Moscow shape our discourse.
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Time to set aside our double standard whereby when it comes to
#Russia
, we don't enforce the rules, but instead hope for a good tsar (Gorbachev, Yeltsin) with whom we can (to quote Lady Thatcher) "do business." We should also set aside the nonsense about Russian high culture. 2/
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It is time for strategic leadership and courage across the West. Anything short of
#Ukraine
's victory in this war is a bad outcome for Europe and the transatlantic community. Our goal for the Washington summit in 2024 should be an invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance.6/End
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🧵I work on nat’l security affairs, so let me share what has been on my mind lately. Having returned to the US after 7 yrs overseas, I’m convinced that we need to move our public discourse away from group categories and refocus on the centrality of citizenship in a democracy. 1/7
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If properly supplied and equipped, the Ukrainian military will eventually achieve a strategic breakthrough. But the West's top priority should be to accelerate the flow of modern weapons and munitions into
#Ukraine
, and to support the country economically and politically. 4/6
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🧵In a recent piece for
@guardian
@lieven_anatol
warned that
#Russia
’s defeat in
#Ukraine
could bring about the emergence of a post-Putin regime in Moscow that would replicate the trauma of Weimar Germany, implying we might end up with someone more dangerous than Putin. 1/7
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I’m leaving
#Warsaw
tonight. Yesterday as I took a walk downtown after a late night dinner I was struck by how cosmopolitan this city has become—I heard people chat in different languages and saw faces from practically every corner of the world. Warsaw is special—go visit.
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And so the “Russian Weimar era” is already past. This is Russia’s war on the West. To use a historical parallel, recall that Hitler’s imperial drive ended when his armies were defeated. Draw your own conclusions as to what must happen to Putin’s Russia to make Europe secure. 7/7
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The West got the war in
#Ukraine
so wrong because those experts who were listened to were experts on Russia, not on Ukraine.Time for some humility in Washington, and for real expertise to be brought to bear from people who understand Central and Eastern Europe-especially Ukraine.
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Can anyone explain why Russian gas is “clean” and Western nuclear power is dirty? It’s high time for a reality check on climate policy. It is time to recognize that without nuclear power Europe won’t be able to meet its climate targets & meet energy requirements. Time to grow up.
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This is one more reason that we urgently need to supply
#Ukraine
with precision long-range fires and modern aircraft. And rather than expecting a spectacular breakthrough in short order, we must accept that in a war both maneuver and attrition are part of the same equation. 3/6
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Russia has begun to prepare covert bombings, arson attacks and damage to infrastructure on European soil, directly and via proxies. Will our leaders finally acknowledge that Russia is at war with the West and act accordingly? It’s about time. Via
@FT
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🧵The crisis in
#Russia
triggered by Prigozhin's rebellion is far from over. Speculation aside about what actually happened and what the Lukashenka-brokered "deal" is about, we are left with even more questions today than yesterday when the quasi-coup unfolded in real time. 1/5
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Berlin’s decision to rule out sending Taurus missiles because it risks escalation repeats the same tired argument we heard when it agonized over providing DEU MBTs to
#Ukraine
. This only prolongs the war and the suffering of UKR people. It’s time for
#Germany
to step up.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cites risk of "escalation" as reason not to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
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Let's be clear: After this war, there can be no going back to the status quo ante. Russia attacked Ukraine, emboldened by our timid response when it used military power against Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 & Syria in 2015. Enough. No more double standards.
#StandWIthUkraine
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First, let’s continue to arm
#Ukraine
and continue to support it politically and economically. Second, we need to stop micromanaging what happens on the battlefield. The Ukrainian military just demonstrated that they know how to fight and how to strike Russia where it hurts. 2/5
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Henry Kissinger’s statement that
#Ukraine
should cede territory to negotiate an end to the war is a reminder that what passes for political realism these days is in fact appeasement. Putin’s unprovoked attack deserves a firm response from the West, not another reward.
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Gov’ts of France, Germany & Italy should stop advocating for a ceasefire in
#Ukraine
. The war has entered its most bloody phase to-date. The last thing UKR Pres.
@ZelenskyyUa
needs is major European capitals second-guessing his decision. Ukraine needs weapons, not intermediaries.
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We talk too often about this war in generalities because too many in the West don’t feel the urgency of the Russian threat. But if
#Ukraine
is not given what it needs to recover all its territory, there is a serious risk of horizontal escalation and a wider war in Europe. 6/End
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Without our assistance
#Ukraine
will run out of resources to continue defending itself. In light of how much US credibility has been invested, it’ll amount to failure greater than Afghanistan.This is strategic myopia of the first order—Beijing is watching.
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Regrettably, last year the Ukrainian military was not given what it needed to break RUS forces, and Moscow used the time since to build multilayered defenses and to upgrade equipment/logistics. My money is on the Ukrainian military, but it will be a brutal fight going forward.2/6
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