Ilaria Mazzocco
@mazzocco_ilaria
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Deputy Director and Senior Fellow @CSISCBE, PhD @saishopkins.
Washington DC
Joined April 2009
Some thoughts on my recent trip to China! I’ve been going to China for 19 years and this was the longest pause in between trips. It was great going back, despite all the changes Shanghai is still the beautiful shiny city I first saw all those years ago. A short 🧵 (1/x)
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EVs everywhere! They may be 40% of new sales in China but in Shanghai they’re easily 40% of the cars on the road. See the video, green licenses=EVs. And the variety was impressive. As my Didi driver put it: there’s a model for everyone. (2/x)
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A couple of areas Washington is lagging behind on: 1) fashion: SH street fashion is killing it and DC fashion crushes my Italian soul 2) driving!! Yes. Probably the biggest change I noticed 3) # of Tim Horton’s. But I’m not sure that’s something we should worry about 😬😬 (4/x).
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The Cleantech factories I visited were impressive. Subsidies or not, international governments that are working to attract Chinese manufacturing investment and the tech and know-how that comes with it are smart. Unfortunately no photos! (3/x).
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I went to South America, talked w/ some really smart people about China, and found that in DC everyone wanted to hear about it, so I wrote a short post. Thanks to everyone who talked to me and I hope to have more opportunities to explore the region! .
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It’s the year of tariffs! These tariffs are performative: no one is importing EVs from China anyway. This will hurt Polestar but they’re supposed to start producing in the U.S. anyway and may benefit from a loophole. I published the data here:
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It’s here!! In lieu of a summer vacation @gregor_seb and I spent our July and August crunching numbers and tracking factories to dig deeper into the trends behind China EV export boom and I’m very excited to share our findings!
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JOB ALERT 🚨 🚨 🚨 Do you love China-related, policy-relevant research at the intersection of politics and economics? Come work with me and the rest of the @CSISCBE team!!! Apply ASAP, we’re starting interviewing next week!
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I'm very excited to announce that I've joined @CSISCBE! I'll be focusing on a broad set of China-related industrial policy and economic topics and will continue to follow the China energy and climate space as well. I'm also looking forward to moving back to DC later this fall!.
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It was a real pleasure to speak to @robinsonmeyer and @JesseJenkins about EVs, China, US, Europe, etc.! As usual I talk too much but they're really smart thinkers on all things climate--highly recommend Shift Key, it's such an informative podcast!.
NEW SHIFT KEY. How did the Chinese EV industry get so big? . We talk with @mazzocco_ilaria, an expert who has studied the sector for years. We cover:.- how the industry grew,.- what it means for climate change,.- whether China has EV “overcapacity,”.- and what it means for the US
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I was listening to an interesting podcast with @jordanschnyc and @HalBrands when I was stung by the accusation against scholars who have focused on 'the positive side' of China's trajectory by studying its economics, which apparently is not useful to the US! Excuse me?! 1/.
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Honored and excited to have been selected as a NCUSR PIP Fellow! Looking forward to meeting everyone!.
Meet the next generation of American China specialists! . @NCUSCR is excited to announce the eighth cohort of #PIPFellows joining us to strengthen their understanding of U.S.-China relations and their capacity as public intellectuals.
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So excited to be back in China after SOOOO long!! 🤩🤩.
Looking forward to having @mazzocco_ilaria @CSIS at Fudan next week to talk about a pretty hot topic!
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My latest piece on how China built the world's largest electric vehicle industry in a decade @MacroPoloChina.
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Just a thought: global trade tensions with China today (EVs!!) are due to political issues and require political solutions. Countries will not accept de-industrialization of core industries. If we treat it as a technical issue we may end up with weird methodologies and poor recs.
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A great column by the @NewYorker on what the US can learn from China's industrial policy in EVs and the future of the industry in the US. Great quotes in here by @kyleichan (and me).
“A lot of Chinese car companies, their big success has come in learning by doing,” @mazzocco_ilaria tells the @NewYorker. “By innovating in production techniques, they have been able to reduce costs, and then reinvest capital in research and development.”
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The NYtimes discovered today that Chinese EVs are in Thailand. For better or worse the Thai gov’t has leveraged access to its mkt to attract LOTS of investment. @gregor_seb and I wrote about this trend a year ago
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Initial thoughts: SAIC is highly reliant on the European market and doesn't have plans yet to localize production, so it's going to be very affected by this. BYD looks like it's going to be in a great position with a EU factory, low tariffs (and geographically diversified mkt).
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Not sure if we ordered the same mushrooms as Secretary Yellen but @BrianTHart and I just had some delicious Yunnan food and 京A beer in Beijing!
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After 8 months of toil, @gdp1985 @KennedyCSIS and I will present our work quantifying industrial policy spending in china and 7 other economies! On 5/24 we will discuss it with a fantastic group: @juhreka13, Jehan Sauvage from @OECD and Yao Yang from PKU
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My husband has been studying Spanish on Duolingo and he’s hit the “politics” section which appears to be filled with these types of sentences. I imagine these are going to be super helpful when we actually go to a spanish-speaking country and try to chat with the taxi drivers.
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I’m shocked because this platform is known for nuance but I guess maybe I should specify that writing that Shanghai is still beautiful doesn’t say a lot about my broader views on China?.
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Remarkable new🇨🇳gov document on the healthy development of trade cooperation for NEVs. Packed with items aimed at reducing global fears over🇨🇳firms internationalizing. Yes, the gov't wants the NEV industry to go global and they know politics is part of it
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I learned a lot on China-Latin America relations and feel very inspired from my trip to Bogotà this week. But a key lesson which I feel is important to share is that hot chocolate is a perfectly respectable drink for adults to have at 6pm and it makes everyone happier.
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These tariffs should not be surprising: some kind of restriction on EV exports was going to happen, it was either tariffs or data related (maybe both!). What’s really going to be interesting (in my view) is Chinese FDI in third countries and in the U.S.! (1/2).
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I often try to remind people that when we talk about “Chinese EVs” we are mostly talking about BYD, which is basically in a class of its own. This article does a great job of explaining the company’s strategy. Another great piece by @edwardwhitenz 👏👏.
BYD has become synonymous with China's rapid rise in electric vehicles. Wang Chuanfu's true ambition goes far beyond cars, and far beyond China. @FinancialTimes
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We think this is part of a broader pattern: Chinese firms are responding to U.S. policies (UFLPA in this case) and leading the diversification/derisking of cleantech supply chains. This is means the policies are working! but also not exactly what policymakers had in mind.
Interesting story @mazzocco_ilaria and I have been looking into. More German polysilicon has been going to Vietnam (where many Chinese solar producers have set up shop), presumably so that producers there can comply with UFLPA.
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A year later I think we can admit that the most lasting impact of Barbenheimer is the number of ladies wearing hot pink blazers presumably working for the defense industrial complex in DC.
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I know Chinese brands are impressive but I don't think I've ever seen so many Teslas in my life as in Beijing. And so many unusual colors, I saw a matte purple one on Sunday! (There is also a Ferrari parked near my hotel but it's not electric so no photo)
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Oddly enough they didn’t use my quote saying that being interviewed by planet money was more exciting than briefing the NSC 😂! Great piece by @theindicator on CATL
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Long before we thought about tariffs, when I was a student writing about a niche topic,@JohnHelveston told me that politics, not efficiency or production costs, determine where cars get made -- this is the "Helveston Law" and I'm convinced Chinese OEMs won't escape the trend!.
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I’ve been saying for a while that the overcapacity story isn’t totally clear cut. This brilliant @edwardwhitenz story raises Qs for me: what if overcapacity is in ICEs? What if it’s the foreign automakers that are going to flood the global markets?via @ft.
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It was such a pleasure to talk with Professor Yasheng Huang about doing research on China, how China’s institutional history influences its development and innovation, and the challenges ahead as the country moves away from opening and reform 👇.
NEW #BigDataChina interview: @YashengHuang & @mazzocco_ilaria discuss China's current economic & political trajectory, the role of diversity in successful political systems, & how structural inequalities result in overcapacity & declining growth in China.
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1/8 I just wrote an article asking how China built an EV industry in a decade and why it has shifted from a standard industrial policy approach to adopting more market-based tools (thread) @MacroPoloChina.
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I tried to read the tea leaves (and the documents) to explain China’s climate commitments, what's happening right now and what to keep an eye on. A long🧵1/9.
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@SinoAutoInsight Nope, I went for a private workshop at Fudan. I did get to visit a few factories in Hefei which was fun!!.
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“The slow-motion financial crisis now unfolding in China is exactly what should be expected as a historically large credit bubble unwinds.” Great analysis of China’s outlook, financial risk, and credibility by @CSISCBE non-resident fellow Logan Wright
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China EV anecdotal data update: Shenyang really trails behind, maybe 10% NEVs? Very comparable to DC (and maybe DC comes out on top). I look forward to giving you more updates from Dandong next!.
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@FairbankCenter Hello there! I'm Ilaria, my dissertation @SAISPhD focused on local government policy to promote EVs in China and now I work more broadly on energy, environment and industrial policy issues in China @MacroPoloChina.
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New data-driven analysis of China's leadership by @neilthomas123 ! You may have suspected that a large number of politburo members have direct ties to Xi. did you know it's 60%? See all the numbers and the career trajectories 👇 .
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Just got a chance to listen to this fantastic interview. Highly recommended for anyone who wants to understand how China works and is trying to grapple with how to think about the international trading system today, Yeling's work is really valuable!.
Thanks Jude @CSISFreeman for the chance to talk about China, WTO, industrial policy, bureaucratic politics, tariffs, embedded liberalism and more!.
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Can't wait for Treasury to release the sourcing requirements for EV tax credits this week! Looks like we're going to have some very creative definitions and very political solutions. Which, as @bensonel notes, means that litigation is on the horizon.
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What’s interesting here is that this strategy put BYD in the lead in China. Focusing on fleets has worked very well for them in domestically, let’s see if they can replicate this model globally!.
Uber will team up with BYD to put 100,000 EVs onto the ride-hailing platform, in a major deal between American and Chinese cos that notably excludes the US. w/ @gablova @EdLudlow @AirEVthingTRNSP @crtrud @petevercoe . Gift link:
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After many months of toil the New Energy Geopolitics Index is here! I developed it with the talented @jy_roach .I hope it will provide a new tool to assess the impact of the energy transition on international politics 👇⚡️🌍.
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📣📣Honored and excited to be testifying next week!!.
📢Next week: the U.S.-China Commission takes a close look at China's economy, its financial sector, its role in global capital markets, U.S.-China trade relations, and U.S. supply chain resiliency. More details at the link.
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Spotted quite a few NEVs in Dandong including this massive electric Denza. I did not see any EVs or solar panels in North Korea, just cornfields.
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I published a new report (with new charts!!)! My main takeaway? Climate is linked to econ policy, which makes it harder to insulate from China competition. We should be upfront about the tradeoffs to craft better policy and ensure climate stays a priority.
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Imagine thinking that because someone researches war, they are always positive about war! Imagine thinking that in an era of globalization, interconnected supply chains and interdependence it's not strategically useful to understand how China's economy works and its lessons. 2/.
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My main take is that the Biden administration was rude to announce these tariffs (which everyone knew were coming anyway) the day I decided to go visit my 92 yo grandfather and Mother’s Day weekend. I think I’ll go enjoy the rest of my mini vacation now.
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Pretty direct message from Secretary Raimondo for Chinese companies that might consider exporting to Russia defying US sanctions: “we could essentially shut SMIC down because we prevent them from using our equipment and our software”.
Chinese companies that aid Russia could be shut down, commerce secretary warns
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In San Francisco and so far the only crime I have to report is that I paid $6 for a cappuccino that was mostly just milk.
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Dalian's EV numbers are pretty disappointing but the light show is fantastic
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@kyleichan I like this. I think you also need a plan for how to address Chinese FDI in Mexico, countries with which the U.S. has FTAs, or potentially in the U.S.
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Students during a guest lecture got very upset at me for saying Polestar is Chinese (it’s a Swedish company! How dare I put it in the China column!). Is this a widespread belief in China?? or did I just get a very disgruntled couple of students who thought I was attacking China?.
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Years ago a very prescient person told me she worried that the green new deal folks didn't pay enough attention to international dynamics and that was going to undermine the implementation of a fantastic idea. I think about that a lot these days via @ft.
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I know some of you like my anecdotal evidence: % of EVs is definitely lower in Beijing than Shanghai. A big share of Didi (ride-hailing service) seem like they are still ICE, which seems like a low hanging fruit. But still way more than anywhere in the US I've been!.
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Nothing like being stuck in a people mover at Dulles at 5 am to make you question your life choices….
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My first piece for @MacroPoloChina is out! Will Chinese industrial policy towards EVs and Solar PV survive COVID19? #solarenergy #ElectricVehicles #China #energytransition.
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I expect it will be tough for Chinese EV and Battery manufacturers to open factories in the U.S.if they don’t already have an established presence (ahem Volvo/Polestar)
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Important to note that Western brands are a significant player here👇👇.
Every third Electric Car Model Available on the European Market is manufactured in China.✍️&📊by @EuroEVReport. "According to data from the European Electric Car Study, a subscription industry report published monthly, every third pure electric (BEV) passenger car model available
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This could be a big deal for those looking for signs of renewed commitment to decarbonization in China. 👇.
❗️BREAKING: No new coal power plants ‘in principle’ - China's National Energy Administration (NEA). Follow this thread for the latest on this story from our team in Beijing 🧵 1/12
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Great piece about EVs in China, @jenniferconrad from @WIRED which includes Ming tombs and comments by me (and tons of other smart people)! via @wired.
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The Big Data China website is finally live! So excited to share this @CSISCBE and @StanfordSCCEI project!
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Enjoyed discussing my testimony on EV exports from China for the USCC in this video with @csis
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Inviting in FDI to access cutting edge tech is a common industrial policy tool. But many in the U.S. are unwilling to be open to Chinese FDI in CleanTech. This is really what sets the U.S. apart from other countries at this moment (look at what’s going on in Europe!) (2/2).
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While I was hiking off-grid in Southern Utah (zero regrets) my brilliant colleagues were hard at work unpacking the new tariffs 👇👇👇 @bensonel @KennedyCSIS @JosephMajkut @GraceBaskaran @jnakanoenergy @QuillRobinson @CSIS_Trade
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Great weekend listen 👇👇👇.
"We’re backing the company, we’re backing the founder, & we’re backing the business model…in this under penetrated market." Veronica Li discusses investing in China's EV market & the robust state of Chinese entrepreneurial innovation on #ChinaFieldNotes.
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I've been thinking a lot about what Chinese companies' role in clean tech supply chain diversification is/will be. Thank you to @UCIGCC for letting me think through some of the questions and preliminary answers! Feedback is definitely welcome!
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My Uber driver today: “Ma’m do you happen to know what kind of car that is?” And then we proceed to see 2 (!!) cyber trucks stuck in DC traffic. Uber driver didn’t seem to believe me when I said they’re electric. Says they’re ugly and correctly guessed the price. Epic. 5 stars!.
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My colleague @neilthomas123 digs into the data to see where party funding in China is going. He finds more funding for 1)social science research 2)ideological disciplines 3)more grants elevating Xi’s ideas than previous leaders @MacroPoloChina.
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How offensive to both people who have dedicated decades to understanding the intricacies of China's political economy and the promising new generation of scholars using new strategies to study China from afar. Also how ignorant of the nature of competition today. 3/.
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My colleagues and I tried to forecast what China’s political, economic, tech, and energy landscape will look like in 5 years. A tough job given current the current instability but also one we hope will be useful in understanding the country's trajectory. Read more here 👇👇👇.
NEW: "Forecast 2025: China Adjusts Course" is now live. Over the medium-term, we see a more capable & outwardly cautious China, one that'll prioritize domestic agenda over global ambitions. The forecast focuses on 4 areas: econ, politics, tech, & energy.
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Now this is really interesting, if true it would be proof that sometimes political narratives get ahead of the data…! I’d love to see a breakdown of that FDI by country of origin!.
The US stamped its foot and flashed the IRA checkbook and got some FDI in renewables and more in chips. But beyond biz lobbying there is no evidence they diverted investment from EU. Great this by @MESandbu Does @BloombergNEF have other data?
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Nonfiction book recommendations that I can download on my kindle for a long flight OR listen on audiobook? In accordance with the DiPippo (@gdp1985) rule if it’s not a history or biography then it shouldn’t make me wish it was only 100 pages long.
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Very excited to host @JoannaILewis and an outstanding panel of experts to talk about her new book, what climate cooperation with China has achieved and its challenges, and talk a bit about the future. Tune in online on March 14th at 11am ET! @CSISCBE
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So proud to work with @KennedyCSIS who spearheaded this multi-year effort to re-establish and maintain academic exchanges between the US and China through zero-Covid and increasing geopolitical competition!.
In our new report on US-China Scholarly Recoupling, 25 leading scholars from both countries tackle academic exchanges & the impact of national security tensions. Read the report here to understand the challenges & opportunities in fostering collaboration:
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It finally happened, i wrote about AVs--kind of. I tried to think of what challenges might lie ahead for EV companies (specifically Chinese ones going to Europe) beyond the EV-specific realm. Data and privacy seems like a big one to me and I try to break down why here 👇.
🚗NEW: Electric vehicles? More like computers on wheels. As EVs become equipped with sophisticated software that collects data, privacy challenges emerge for automakers. Will that pose a challenge for Chinese EVs' global expansion?
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So exciting to be a guest on the China Power Podcast! I really enjoyed this conversation on EVs! 🎧🎧🎧.
[NEW PODCAST] How has China been able to overtake historical powerhouses and become the world’s largest automobile exporter? @mazzocco_ilaria joins the #ChinaPower Podcast to discuss this and more. Listen here:
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Very few have been traveling between the US and China and even fewer are in the policy community (the DC bubble?) so don’t miss @KennedyCSIS series on his recent trip to China and follow @CSISCBE for regular updates. *Bonus content*: I sent at least some of those pilates videos.
JUST OUT: What is it like to travel to China these days? The first entry of my travelogue series documents my arrival and quarantine experience.
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Delighted to have collaborated with @bencahillenergy! We look at China's economic recovery and what it means for energy demand in 2023. The bottom line? Stronger growth and demand in 2023, but China isn't going back to super-high growth rates any time soon
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I’ve been wondering (and pestering Gerard) about this for a while. Great to see some numbers on this! I still think ICE overcapacity could be a big problem (in all countries hopefully, eventually!) for climate change as the transition accelerates in China 👇👇👇👇👇.
Sanctions on Russia have been a boon for Chinese ICE automakers. @x1skv and I estimate that 58% of the increase in China’s ICE exports in 2023 compared to 2021 is Russian demand, factoring in transshipment. New Russian demand accounts for 6% of China's ICE car production. 1/
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Interesting article by @iduncan on the funding ban for Chinese buses with some comments by me. and if someone wants to try to change my mind on this please do. I'm always enthusiastic about discussing electric buses! .
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Great report by @Gregory_C_Allen unpacking the latest round of export controls that the Biden administration announced on Oct 7th—the basic takeaway is that Washington is getting serious about leveraging chokepoints in advanced semiconductors
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It's been a week since the IRA was signed but I still have thoughts: it's fantastic! But we should be realistic about the short-to-medium term: China is still going to be a major player in cleantech supply chains for a while and we can't wish that away
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Areas of potential retaliation to watch 👇👇👇.
If China's response to the Section 301 tariffs is "targeted" (as Yellen hopes), US exemptions might tell China where to aim. Basically, the US wants to keep importing Chinese graphite, permanent magnets, and solar manufacturing kit until 2026 or later--will China let it?
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I got to discuss my background and views on research and China policy in this interview. And I’m so very excited for our upcoming projects at @CSISCBE !.
@CSISCBE welcomes @mazzocco_ilaria as our new Fellow. Check out our interview w/ Ilaria to learn more about her research background and her new role at @CSIS:
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Amazing data that captures the shifting economic EU-China relationship 🇪🇺🇨🇳.
Chinese FDI in Europe is down in 2023 to EUR 6.8 bn from EUR 7.1 bn in 2022, but a low base and many new investments suggest a likely rise in 2024, read our new @rhodium_group and @merics_eu study /w @AgathaKratz, @Armd_meyer, Alex Brown and Max Zenglein.
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Important reflections on the importance of understanding why the Chinese leadership is pursuing its current economic policy and what alternative scenarios mean for US policymakers by my @CSISCBE colleague @KennedyCSIS.
For several months observers of China have wondered why Xi & the leadership haven't take more decisive steps to fix the economy & restore consumer & producer confidence. I've encountered 4 alternative hypotheses, what could be dubbed "the 4 No's" (四个不).
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And how ignorant of all the fantastic work that is being done on China's foreign policy and politics. Can more be done? yes of course, especially as researching China becomes harder. But do we need to dismiss current research to advocate for more funding? Please, don't. 5/.
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In which I say that we shouldn’t be losing sight of why we should try and expand supply chains for clean tech: economic, resiliency and climate benefits. National Security is important but we should be careful with how we frame things and not overlook nuance and complexity.
Infographic: China’s supply chain dominance has transformed powerful batteries—and the key metals they comprise of—into a thorny geopolitical flash point, writes FP's @christinafei and .@liamjscott.
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📣📣📣INTERNS NEEDED! Join our team this summer and help us unpack China’s economy, US China trade, tech competition, derisking, industrial policy, cleantech supply chains and all the fun stuff we do @CSISCBE. Apply now!!
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It's almost like there wasn't a demand in Washington for understanding how industrial policy works in China, or the role of Chinese investment overseas. Plus, aren't we supposed to encourage broad research and diversity of opinion? It's like saying basic research is useless 4/.
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📢📢 @CSISCBE is hiring summer interns! Work with our team to track what China's political economy means for the 🌍and 🇺🇸🇨🇳relations. (and don't get help from a cat with the application, they're not good at typing, the gif was just to get your attention).
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