Gregory C. Allen
@Gregory_C_Allen
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Director of the Wadhwani Center for AI & Advanced Technologies @CSIS . Host of the AI Policy Podcast
Washington, DC
Joined May 2014
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Come work with me! We're hiring fellows and senior fellows to work on two critically important lines of research:
AI Governance:
AI & National Security:
If you want amazing colleagues and an opportunity for impact, apply!
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I dug deep into last Friday's bombshell package of anti-China export controls on AI and chip tech. There's a lot of wrong info out about the policy. For an accurate and comprehensive analysis, see my report published today by
@CSIS
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Oct 7, 2022 is destined to go echo in geopolitical history: the U.S. launched a new set of export controls targeting China's AI & semiconductor industries.
In a new
@CSIS
report, I analyze China's strategy for striking back.
Summary in THREAD
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Hot off the press: "Huawei, SMIC, and the future of Export Controls."
This new report is a soup-to-nuts evaluation of the Huawei Mate60 Pro, the SMIC 7nm chip inside, and the future of U.S. semiconductor export controls. Please help spread the word!
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Some professional news: I’ve been promoted to Director of Strategy & Policy
@DoDJAIC
. I’m fortunate to serve under some terrific leaders including LtGen Groen and
@DepSecDef
Hicks.
The S&P team is growing so if you know talented folks who might be interested, please reach out!
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We're hiring at CSIS! If you're interested in the intersection of technology, national security, and economic competitiveness, please apply and spread the word!
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Some exciting professional news: I have joined the DoD Joint AI Center at the new Chief of Strategy and Communications. If you'd like to join us, our job opportunities will be hosted here until the new JAIC website goes live.
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A recent article in a Chinese military journal gives a fascinating window into how some in China perceive U.S. military support to Ukraine. Of note: the author thinks U.S. mil support with AI-enabled capabilities have been decisive.
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The full, 6000 word report is available here. If you love deep-in-the-weeds analysis of semiconductor technologies, global tech value chains, and Dutch export control law, you're going to be very happy.
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We crunched the numbers on which countries have what share across the semiconductor supply chain. The results show a changing geopolitical landscape.
For some very cool data and data visualizations, check out the report
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My new report "Understanding China's AI Strategy" has been published by
@CNASdc
. It shares my conclusions from four trips to China in late 2018 and meetings with Chinese leaders across diplomacy, military, AI researchers, and tech industry. Read it at
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There's some confusion about how the updated Biden Administration chip export controls work. Below is my graphic guide to understanding the recently updated controls.
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This is something worth paying attention to. Thus far, both sides in the Russia/Ukraine conflict have been using remotely piloted drones effectively in part because effective countermeasures haven't be widely available. That may be changing.
Ukranian soldiers with the Lithuanian donated anti-drone jammer EDM4S "Sky Wiper"
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It's official! I am delighted to share that I have joined
@CSIS
as the new head of their Project on AI Governance and a Senior Fellow in their Strategic Technologies Program.
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The story begins on October 7th, when the Biden administration announced new export controls designed to choke off China's access to the future of AI and semicondcutor technology. For analysis of that policy, see my previous report
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I have been working on AI issues in the DoD for 2 years now, and I still think about this thread (which former USAF
@KesselRunAF
COO
@bjkroger
wrote 2 years ago) almost every day.
Ldr: We are drowning in data!
Me: [looks at puddle, blinks]
Ldr: We need AI/ML!
Me: Let’s ask this Airmen why there is so little data.
Airmen: I use the whiteboard to do my job. Our enterprise apps suck.
Me: I think we need to build new enterprise apps.
Ldr: AI/ML initiatives!
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The deal between the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands on semiconductor export controls is a remarkable diplomatic achievement for all three countries. My analysis in
@TIME
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I recently wrote in
@TIME
:
"It’s good to have friends, especially since many of America’s are world leaders in technologies of major strategic and geopolitical importance, including semiconductors."
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I'm proud to share that CSIS has published a new collection of essays from leading international scholars of semiconductors and geopolitics. The report provides vital context on allied perspectives in the wake of the October 7 export controls.
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I found this report from
@CSETGeorgetown
's Matt Daniels and Ben Chang to be extremely good. Highly, highly recommended for anyone interested in
#AI
and
#nationalsecurity
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Going it alone at first was a major diplomatic *gamble,* but it paid off when the parties reached an agreement at the end of January.
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@lemonodor
Every one of these types of incidents literally require the personal attention of the Secretary of Defense or Deputy SecDef. Sometimes waking them in the middle of night. Ash Carter wrote about how much he hates these in his memoirs. Also discussed here
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In sum, further information about an actual agreement will probably remain elusive for the near-future, and we may never see actual text. However, some clues are hiding in plain sight.
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WOW
@RitaKonaev
of
@CSETGeorgetown
has been on a publication tear this month - lead author of three big papers on
#military
#AI
and
#Russia
's AI research. Well done!
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The DoD Joint AI Center is hiring for a Chief of the Policy division. Please spread the word! Applications accepted here
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On every metric that matters, they are dramatically inferior to Dutch and Japanese alternatives. Moreover, SMEE DUV scanners are more than a decade and a half behind the state of the art in the Netherlands and Japan in terms of the types of chips that they can produce.
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What if we stopped using the term "unmanned"?
Besides the unappealing and inaccurate presumption of male gender, "unmanned" fails to provide key info about whether a vehicle is remotely piloted or autonomous.
Most UAVs have pilots! They're just not onboard the aircraft!
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BIG News: The Department of Defense's AI Symposium is going to be hosted in Crystal City Virginia this coming April 29 and 30. All of the DoD's AI activities coming together in one place.
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(2) an agreement to prohibit the Dutch and Japanese from exporting their advanced lithography equipment to China.
What types of lithography equipment are sufficiently advanced to produce chips at performance levels covered by Oct 7th rules? EUV and Argon Flouride Immersion DUV
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These export controls were designed after deep consultation with key US allies, but the US originally implemented them unilaterally. This could have backfired if others, particularly the Dutch 🇳🇱 and Japanese 🇯🇵, moved to fill the gaps in the Chinese market that the US exit left.
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My thoughts on
@Google
's withdrawal from the DOD's
#AI
#ProjectMaven
published in
@Nature
.
AI researchers need to hear from the military about the security consequences of tech, and the military needs expert advice to apply AI ethically and effectively.
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Combined, this strongly suggests that the agreement between the US, Netherlands, and Japan drew the performance threshold line to restrict sales of EUV and ArF immersion lithography equipment, related components, and possibly expertise to China.
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Just rewatched the October 2016
@WIRED
interview with
@BarackObama
on
#ArtificialIntelligence
and National Security. Amazing how clearly he understood the key issues even then. Kudos
@EdFelten
@terahlyons
and the other smart people who briefed him.
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Former DepSecDef Bob Work makes his most emphatic statement yet:
#AI
arms race is already underway. US efforts not good enough.
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(1) Evade the new controls and continue to access U.S./allied technology;
(2) Seek to divide the United States from its allies;
(3) Acquire foreign technology through industrial espionage and talent recruitment;
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Some members of the
@DoDJAIC
team co-authored a
#AI
paper that was accepted to the prestigious
@NeurIPSConf
. More details here
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The US asked 🇳🇱 & 🇯🇵 to adopt rules that pursue the same goals as Oct. 7th but also includes additional tech niches that 🇳🇱 & 🇯🇵 occupy in the semiconductor value chain. Among other things, they're the global juggernauts in lithography equipment
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Thus, the US had two primary goals for a deal with the Netherlands and Japan: (1) an agreement to prohibit 🇳🇱 & 🇯🇵 companies from backfilling the categories of semiconductor manufacturing equipment that the United States is no longer selling to China, and...
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For much, much, more detail on this topic, please read the full report at the link below. And if you liked this thread, please help spread the word by retweeting the first tweet.
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The DoD Joint AI Center is hiring! Spread the word!
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However, SMEE’s most advanced ArF dry lithography machines are in the prototype stage and have not yet achieved the affordability, reliability, and performance required to be marketed commercially.
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The most advanced Chinese lithography company, Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment group (SMEE), currently markets systems using ArF dry and Krypton Flouride technology.
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The JAIC has announced a new contract task order award with $800M ceiling for development of AI-enabled capabilities for Joint Warfighting applications
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For China’s leadership, the decisive moment in shaping semiconductor strategy was not October 2022, but April 2018, when the United States imposed extremely strict export controls against a major Chinese telecommunications company, ZTE.
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The conversations around best practices and ethics will “lay the foundation for interoperability in lots of different ways” said Stephanie Culberson, the JAIC’s chief of international affairs.
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CSIS has published a full English translation of the new Japanese export controls on advanced semiconductor technology. You can't find this anywhere else! They go into effect July 23, 2023
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Of note, in December 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce added SMEE to the Entity List “for acquiring and attempting to acquire U.S.-origin items in support of China’s military modernization.” Likely a helpful step for securing Dutch and Japanese buy-in.
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It was such an honor to host Senator Chuck Schumer at
@CSIS
for a conversation about his SAFE framework for AI regulation. Come back soon
@SenSchumer
!
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It’s an amazing community of people driving DoD change at
#DEF2019
. I was proud to represent
@DoDJAIC
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Honored to serve as Executive Director of the CSIS AI Council. The Council includes 17 distinguished leaders across business, academia, & govt. Our focus is on the timely and vital work of advancing intl. collaboration on AI governance:
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Chinese leaders, including Xi Jinping, learned that even their strongest technology companies could potentially be strangled quickly and decisively by a U.S. government willing to exploit America’s control of technology chokepoints.
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CNAS fellows are lucky in that our work often enjoys wide readership, but not every
@CNASdc
report gets the attention that it deserves. My vote for the best CNAS report that everyone should have read but probably didn't is "Patriot Wars" by Dr. John Hawley
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The agreement included assurances that the 🇳🇱 & 🇯🇵 governments will prohibit the sale of lithography equipment—steppers and scanners, electron-beam tools, and resist processing tools—at advanced performance levels consistent w/ EUV and argon fluoride (ArF) immersion tech.
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In the FY20 budget request currently being considered by Congress, DoD and other fed. govt. AI spend is slated to increase significantly. When comparing these figures to other govts. (esp. China) it is critical to make an apples to apples comparison. New CSET report helps a lot.
Further evidence that China’s AI R&D spending is not what they claim.
Important research from
@CSETGeorgetown
concludes that “China’s government is not investing tens of billions of dollars annually in AI R&D as some have suggested..."
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About a year I wrote a piece called "The future of military robotics looks like a nature documentary." I had no idea it would happen this soon or this literally.
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#China
is implementing Obama's strategy for
#AI
. Will America? My latest with
@EBKania
in
@ForeignPolicy
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The Oct 7 export controls are far stronger than anything done during the Trump administration, but they haven't changed China's overall strategic goals in the semiconductor industry. That was already fully baked before Biden was sworn in.
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For folks who wonder whether DoD cares about AI Safety, it absolutely does! But DoD tends to use different terms such as Test and Evaluation, Verification and Validation (TEVV). The 2015-18 DoD Autonomy TEVV tech investment strategy is available at
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I made a chart to reflect my interpretation of recent progress in AI strategy game playing. I am eager to know whether people think this is a helpful framework. Please comment suggested improvements and share.
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“science-fiction author Neal Stephenson worked a launch system based on whips and chains into the plot of one of his novels, “Seveneves,” and said he looked into the detailed dynamics of such a system while he was helping Bezos out at the billionaire’s Blue Origin space venture.”
A new patent by Amazon lays out a plan for a launch system that could theoretically send payloads into space on the end of a miles-long whip, guided by a phalanx of drones attached to the lash.
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(1) In recent weeks, China has begun a crackdown on the foreign consulting firms that support corporate due diligence efforts, including those related to identifying shell companies and other measures to comply with U.S. export controls and sanctions.
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(4) Pressure Chinese firms to buy Chinese and eliminate American suppliers; and
(5) Retaliate against the United States and its allies.
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However, part of the reason that China’s response to the October 7 export controls seems muted is because China’s “response” had already been underway for years.
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Great overview of my new
@cnasdc
report on China's AI strategy. Important to note that China is also aggressively pursuing military AI. There's a disconnect between Chinese words and actions. Still to be seen which better predicts China's future.
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In my new article for
@TIME
, I examine China’s three approaches to retaliating against the USA & allies.
Here’s the thing though: retaliation isn’t the most important part of China’s strategy for response. What is? Read to find out :)
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Will Roper: "MAVEN was meant to be a teaser [...] but unfortunately, we stayed focused on it. To really make AI work, you have to do a lot of work that is not the glitzy algorithms doing cool things at the edge. You have to lay in the infrastructure"
#DoDAI2020
#AI
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By the time the Biden administration took office, China’s leaders were already persuaded that America could never be trusted when it comes to semiconductors, and that China should do whatever it takes to build an all-Chinese supply chain as quickly as possible.
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Transcript of Lt Gen Shanahan's comments available here:
Lt General Jack Shanahan, JAIC Director, addressed media today from the Pentagon to discuss
#ArtificialIntelligence
#Defense
#DOD
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Yesterday, DoD published its Responsible AI Strategy and Implementation Pathway. Makes me remember (surprisingly big) little moments from my time in DoD, like when Lt Gen Shanahan
@Fermat15
asked me in 2019 "hey, what if we hired someone to work on AI ethics full time?"
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I'm delighted to see that my report, "Understanding China's AI Strategy," is also attracting readership in China as well. Here's a great article in the South China Morning Post from
@Sarah_Dai
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In the first few months after the Oct 7, China’s response appeared pretty modest. China criticized U.S. actions, filed a suit against in the WTO, and reportedly considered (but did not publicly announce) proposals for massive additional semiconductor industry subsidies
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Great article: "Chinese artificial-intelligence researchers are aware of ways their work lags the United States’ — and Beijing is working to fix those."
China’s Rapid AI Development Has Its Limits: Report by
@paulina_glass
@DefenseOne
cc
@Gregory_C_Allen
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My interview with
@thewirechina
about the China AI and semiconductor export controls. Plus: a book recommendation!
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On Lt Gen Shanahan's last day as
@DoDJAIC
director,
@TheEconomist
wrote a profile of his efforts over the past 18 months
Business lessons from the
@DoDJAIC
in starting a technology organization in the
@DeptofDefense
#ai
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In a matter of months, ZTE’s financial situation transformed from significant profitability and rapid growth to imminent bankruptcy.
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Though the overall strategy and its goals are broadly similar, China has adopted a combination of new tactics and redoubled efforts on old ones. There are five major elements of the updated Chinese strategy:
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It’s official: DOD has fielded an operational
#DeepLearning
#AI
system in the fight against ISIS. My latest:
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Chinese leaders have a preferred solution to break this vicious cycle: pressure Chinese fabs to buy Chinese equipment. Chinese equipment firms will likely supply a majority of the new equipment for Chinese fabs producing at the (positively ancient) 90nm node or above (worse)
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New report from CSET on "China's State-Backed Program for General Purpose AI"
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(3) Industrial espionage has been a part of the semiconductor industry nearly since its inception.
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Here's a remarkable quote from former SecDef Bob Gates in 1986. Was he right? What does it make you think about today's challenges?
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Apply for the program coordinator and research assistant position here
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Unsurprisingly, as soon as the United States announced the October 7 controls, Chinese firms began courting equipment makers in the other countries. China’s government also began pressuring the other countries to not go along with the U.S. controls.
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Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang recently told his Japanese counterpart, Yoshimasa Hayashi, that, Japan should not help a villain do evil.
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This view was echoed by the Dutch national intelligence agency, which in its 2023 annual report called China “the biggest threat to the Netherlands’ economic security.”
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Great coverage of our research on
#artificialintelligence
and national security by
@WIRED
's
@tsimonite
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Yesterday, I had the honor to testify before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs yesterday about the challenges and opportunities that advanced AI and biotechnology pose for U.S. National Security. Watch the hearing at
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Second, China has initiated a cybersecurity review of Micron, the largest U.S. memory chipmaker. If Micron fails its cybersecurity review, it could be forced out of the Chinese memory market entirely, a potential loss of $3.3 billion in annual sales.
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(2) Four countries—the United States, Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea—are responsible for the vast majority of global semiconductor equipment sales.
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