NEW: We've just released satellite imagery showing the latest progress on construction of China's massive new Type 076 warship, which is shaping up to be something between an aircraft carrier and an amphibious assault ship.
Russia was indeed a key figure in China’s “century of humiliation.” And the two sides almost went to war during the height of Sino-Soviet tensions.
But Xi has made an effort to whitewash the past.
NEW: China is constructing a bridge across Pangong Lake that will significantly enhance the PLA’s ability to quickly move troops and supplies around contested areas of the China-India border.
Our imagery and analysis:
Just finished
@SciGuySpace
’s fantastic book on
@SpaceX
. I was initially worried it would rehash much of Ashlee Vance’s (excellent) bio of Musk. But it didn’t—it offers so many new details about the tumultuous early years of the company. Highly recommend it!
Been working on mapping developments in the PLA Western Theater Command, with specific focus on airports, heliports, and SAM sites. There is a lot going on, and I'm sure I'm still missing some sites.
Green=existing
Blue=recently expanded/upgraded
Red=new/under construction
NEW:
@ChinaPowerCSIS
has launched a page to track China's activities amid the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis as they develop. We start with analysis of the PLA's unprecedented exercises. Learn about the significance of the exercises and each individual zone.
NEW: Does China have a timeline for unifying Taiwan? Is an invasion likely? How would China react to an end of strategic ambiguity? To shed light on these and other questions, we polled 64 top experts. See key findings below and explore full results here:
NEW: My
@CSIS
colleagues and I just released a new interactive digital report showing how shipyards at the heart of modernizing the Chinese navy are attracting billions of dollars of revenue and technology transfers from companies around the world.
NEW: We just published
@ChinaPowerCSIS
analysis of how Chinese shipyards are ramping up construction of "roll on-roll off" (ro-ro) vessels for ferrying cars. We break down the data and unpack the potential implications for China's military capabilities.
NEW: If China decides to use force against Taiwan, some in Beijing may assess that a blockade carries a higher chance of operational success than an invasion in the near term.
But what would a blockade look like? Our report maps out three scenarios.
This week, Xi Jinping is heading to Russia, and he may soon call President Zelensky. China wants to be seen as neutral but the facts show otherwise. Chinese officials have engaged with Russia far more frequently and at higher levels since the start of the war.
For weeks, I saw dozens of articles claiming China has designs on Afghan rare earths, lithium, and various minerals. In a new article for
@ForeignPolicy
, Matthew Funaiole and I debunk this speculation and call for clear-eyed assessments of US interests.
If you’d asked me to come up with a CCP Politburo Standing Committee more dominated by Xi Jinping, I don’t think I could have come up with one.
Here’s the lineup. Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang, Li Xi
With the news that China’s Defense Minister (and member of the Central Military Commission) Li Shangfu is under investigation, you may have questions about how the PLA and CMC work.
Our
@ChinaPowerCSIS
feature has you covered:
NEW from
@ChinaPowerCSIS
: We just published an excellent guest-authored article (our first!) by
@OfficialBen_L
. In it, he analyzes key trends of China's 2022 violations of Taiwan's ADIZ. The article includes some great graphics by
@CIGeography
as well.
NEW: We just published
@ChinaPowerCSIS
🛰️ imagery analysis of Chinese naval shipbuilding activity at Jiangnan Shipyard and Hudong-Zhonghua Shipyard.
There's a lot to unpack, so here's a short thread. You can read the full analysis here:
Fun fact: since Zhang Heqing joined Twitter in May 2020, his account has (at minimum) tweeted 322 times per day on average. That’s more than 13 times per hour, or about once every 4-5 minutes.
NEW from
@ChinaPowerCSIS
: We just published a page tracking China’s military exercises around Taiwan and other key activities over the past week.
This is just a first cut. In the coming days, we’ll update the timeline and add in-depth analysis.
One of the interesting things about the PRC balloon incident is that the US used a U-2 aircraft—which first flew 67 years ago—to take images of the balloon. Those images confirmed for the IC that the balloon was carrying antennae and other equipment for SIGINT collection.
This has been on my reading list for years and I finally took the plunge. It’s one of the most enthralling works of non-fiction I’ve ever read. I wish I’d read it sooner. It’s got it all: history, biography, science, politics, diplomacy, war, espionage.
NEW: Everyone knows the Taiwan Strait is a crucial maritime chokepoint. But just how important is it?
This new
@CSIS
report provides groundbreaking insights into how much trade transits the Taiwan Strait and how dependent each economy is on the waterway.
This is very odd. Hua Chunying says Xi “delivered” an address, but Xi skipped the meeting. Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao spoke in Xi’s stead. Note that the photo here is from far back and does not show Xi.
President Xi Jinping delivered an address at the closing ceremony of the
#BRICS
Business Forum 2023. President Xi said changes in the world, in our times and in history are unfolding in ways like never before, bringing human society to a critical juncture.
I can now add “Husband” to my Twitter bio! On Saturday,
@sethwilliford
and I tied the knot on a beautiful fall day in North Carolina, surrounded by our family and friends.
NEW: We’ve just published extensive
@ChinaPowerCSIS
analysis of China’s Joint Sword-2024A military exercises around Taiwan and other Chinese escalatory actions in response to William Lai’s inauguration speech.
Explore our analysis and stay tuned for more:
Here’s the big one: From April 8-10 (Beijing time) the PLA Eastern Theater Command will organize combat readiness patrols and "Joint Sword" exercises around Taiwan Island in the Taiwan Strait and near the northern and southern parts of the island and the airspace east of Taiwan.
Some personal news, and a long-overdue announcement:
@sethwilliford
and I are engaged! We can’t wait to celebrate with family and friends this October in Winston-Salem, where it all began.
Unconfirmed reports are spreading that a PLAN Type 071 LPD is on fire. Not sure what this post means by “China’s most advanced ship” (they aren’t), but they are very large and capable vessels and China only has 8 hulls. If reports are accurate, this is a big loss for the PLAN.
I know we’re all fixated on the balloon right now, but I’m pleased to share that a chapter I co-authored for the annual USAWC PLA conference has just been published! This was a fun piece and I was thrilled to publish alongside such fantastic PLA scholars.
A bit of personal news: Today I'm starting a new role as a Fellow within
@ChinaPowerCSIS
. The past few years with the China Power team (and all of
@CSIS
) have been incredible, and I'm thrilled to be continuing my work here!
A major development for China‘s military today. The PLA established the Information Support Force (信息支援部队), “a newly created strategic branch and a key pillar for coordinating the construction and application of network information systems.”
This time, China has announced zones for the exercises — something they haven’t always done. Compare the zones from these exercises (left) and August 2022 exercises (right).
NEW:
@CSIS
has just released the first issue of "Hidden Reach," a new series using 🛰️ imagery and OSINT to shine light on China’s growing influence. Here we unpack China’s emergence as a space power and the potential risks. Thrilled to be part of this.
NEW:
@ChinaPowerCSIS
has just released an in-depth study, featuring 🛰️ imagery, on China's construction of airports, heliports, and ground infrastructure along its western borders—especially its border with India.
NEW: Our
@ChinaPowerCSIS
page on the Taiwan Strait Crisis continues to be regularly updated.
Today we added a detailed timeline of the PRC’s major military activities, with multiple new maps and charts added.
Stay tuned for more!
JOB OPENING: We are hiring a research assistant/associate to support a new
@CSIS
project that uses open-source data and satellite imagery to analyze underappreciated aspects of China’s overseas activities.
Apply here:
The
@ChinaPowerCSIS
team has just published our analysis of Xi's 20th Party Congress report.
We cover 4 areas:
- China’s Worsening External Environment
- Growing Focus on National Security
- Continuity on Taiwan
- Doubling Down on Military Modernization
For my latest
@ChinaBriefJT
article, I coded all 151 Politburo group study sessions (集体学习) and found that, under Xi, the Politburo has dramatically shifted the focus of its studies toward party affairs, foreign affairs, and security & military affairs.
NEW: The
@ChinaPowerCSIS
team just published a new interactive
@CSIS
digital report mapping out detailed scenarios of how China could conduct a law enforcement-led quarantine of Taiwan.
China's spending on imports of semiconductors this year is shattering records in previous years. Through September 2021, China has already imported $314 bn worth -- more than the annual total for every previous year (except 2020).
This confirms his statements are not a gaffe, and never were a gaffe.
I think Biden is trying to pivot to “Strategic Ambiguity+,” wherein he says US policy hasn’t changed, but he would personally deploy US military to defend Taiwan. But he doesn’t say to what extent.
President Biden tells 60 Minutes that U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. However, after our interview, a White House official told us that U.S. policy on Taiwan has not changed.
NEW: My
@CSIS
colleagues and I just released new imagery and analysis of China’s Type 003 aircraft carrier. Based on progress to date, we conclude the vessel will likely launch in the next 3-6 months.
NEW: Today we published the results of a joint
@ChinaPowerCSIS
-
@INDSRTW
survey of leading experts from the U.S. and Taiwan. The survey results offer several valuable insights.
This thread summarizes some key takeaways:
Yep. I’ve spent a lot of time looking at Chinese online propaganda/disinfo and this rings true. The most active and prolific accounts often seem stuck in feedback loops in which they mistake engagement from each other as signs that their messaging is working.
NEW: My
@CSIS
colleagues and I just released a short piece with 🛰 imagery showing China is gearing up to launch its Type 003 aircraft carrier. There’s speculation the carrier will launch tomorrow, but it’s unclear. Regardless, it will likely launch soon.
NEW: In recent weeks, overeager analysts have spread misinformation about China’s third aircraft carrier, posting images that purportedly show large cracks in the vessel’s deck.
We use satellite imagery to debunk these claims:
NEW: We’ve just released imagery and analysis of a recently expanded facility on Hainan Island that provides the PLA with significant new electronic warfare, SIGINT, and SATCOM capabilities near the South China Sea.
Today is my first day back in China in 5 years. I'm looking forward to spending the next week visiting Shanghai, Nanjing, and Beijing for meetings and discussions on US-China relations.
NEW from the
@CSIS
@HiddenReachCSIS
and
@CSISAmericas
teams: Using satellite imagery, we identified 4 SIGINT sites in Cuba that are among the most likely locations supporting China’s efforts to spy on the United States.
As we compete with China, we can’t focus on outpacing China in everything. But S&T innovation is at the core of US-China competition. The trend lines are clear: the US is declining in terms of R&D spending (as a % of GDP) while China is steadily climbing.
When I lived and studied in China, most of my Chinese classmates privately talked about how much they hated their mandatory classes on Marxism, and they joked about how useless they were. But I don’t know how common that sentiment was/is.
China's new plan for social sciences in unis "旗帜鲜明地讲清楚习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想是当代中国马克思主义、二十一世纪马克思主义,是中华文化和中国精神的时代精华,实现了马克思主义中国化新的飞跃;旗帜鲜明地用习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想铸魂育人,加强马克思主义学科建设"
70 PLA aircraft tracked operating around Taiwan, including 35 in the ADIZ. Multiple notes to follow but first and foremost.
This is the first time J-15s have been tracked publicly in the ADIZ. These are carrier based aircraft based.
@DerekJGrossman
There is a fundamental difference between shooting something down over sovereign CONUS vs the South China Sea etc. The PLA would have every right to shoot down US assets over sovereign mainland PRC territory, but PRC claims over SCS etc are not recognized under international law.
Hot off the
@CSIS
presses: We just published a 17-page report on China’s influence over gallium supply chains, China’s efforts to become a leader in gallium-based chips, and what the US and its allies can do to de-risk.
This is irresponsible and creates a false equivalency between NPR and actual state-affiliated media. Malign Chinese, Russian, and other accounts will use this to sow doubt and spread disinformation.
It’s common in DC to hear about tech competition and semiconductors, but I don’t think many appreciate how insanely complicated every aspect of the chip-making process is. These pages from
@crmiller1
’s book “Chip War” give a taste of how mind-boggling EUV lithography is.
This is a semi-regular reminder that, despite the fear-mongering, China only holds a small amount of US debt. The latest
@USTreasury
data shows China owns only 3% of US debt—the lowest level since 2005. And the top foreign owner is Japan, not China.
It’s an impressive plane! The U.S. has to continue innovating and modernizing to deter adversaries. I get it — seriously. But this event (the music!) is cringe.
My first reaction to this was to excitedly yell “FINALLY!”
My second reaction was deep anger at the CCP for blatantly holding these two for years on arbitrary claims, just for the sake of callous retribution.
Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen is on her way to the United States. Our new
@ChinaPowerCSIS
feature provides in-depth analysis on past transits and Chinese activities.
The page will be updated shortly to reflect the latest info. Stay up to date here:
This week I got my first hate mail, featuring an anti-gay slur. After I got over the initial shock, I was mostly just amused that someone felt I was important enough to warrant spending the time to send an angry email. If the desire was to shame or frighten, it backfired. 🏳️🌈
Chinese officials always say joint military exercises don't "target any third parties." (Left image)
But we know that's not true. China's authoritative 2020 "Science of Military Strategy" [战略学 (2020版)] says the opposite. (Right image, translated from original).
Useful interview with analysis on the PLA exercises around Taiwan:
In a separate post, 赵小卓 Zhao Xiaozhuo, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, lays out five key characteristics of the exercises:
It’s frustrating to still see this being written. Xi Jinping has not said that the PLA should reach parity with the US by 2027. And that wouldn’t be possible even if Xi did say that. China plans for the PLA to be on par with the US military by mid-century.
Important to note that these comments aren’t nearly as authoritative as official statements from senior officials or party/state orgs. But still, this is pretty disturbing rhetoric, and I think it reflects a prevalent mindset in Beijing, and especially in the PLA.
Disturbing rhetoric on PRC state media describing "Taiwan independence forces" i.e. all of the Taiwanese people, as the "tumours" of an unhealthy Chinese nation who must be excised.
Biden to sign defence pact in Papua New Guinea, with eyes on China
This is a significant development worth watching as President Biden travels to PNG later this month — the first ever visit there by a sitting president.
In a new
@CSIS
report, our team analyses China’s military and diplomatic escalation against Taiwan in August 2022 and April 2023.
Here’s a short 🧵 with our key takeaways.
Read the full report here:
The Fujian MSA announced live-fire exercises off of Pingtan Island on April 10. A few quick thoughts:
- These are obviously nowhere near the scale of the Aug 22 exercises that encircled Taiwan (image 4), but the PLA could extend the timing/scale of these or announce additional
NEW: Our latest
@CSIS
Hidden Reach report examines China’s efforts to position itself as a major player in the world’s polar regions, where both the climate and geopolitical tensions are heating up.
BREAKING: This is not new. China has repeatedly called for de-escalation.
The problem is that Beijing has simultaneously stood by Russia and helped to spread pro-Russian narratives about the war.
@jcanfil
For some reason it bugs me when the names of movies/books are inexplicably changed when translated. Why change “长空之王,”which translates nicely to “King of the Sky,” to “Born to Fly”?
Fun fact: The Chinese MFA website has a profile of Djibouti that remarkably omits that China has a military base there. It says that "France, the US, Japan, Italy, and other countries" have bases there.
"Other countries" is doing a lot of work here.
Secretary Blinken emphasizes that we welcome Chinese citizens seeking to study and work here, and he rejects racism against Chinese and AAPI individuals. This is crucial, and it’s great to see this highlighted.
It’s important to note that this new Chinese station will support genuine research. A prelim 2020 US government inspection found no military activity there. But given China’s stated aims of mixing mil-civ capabilities in polar research, high levels of transparency are needed.
New satellite imagery analyzed by our team shows that Chinese workers have recently made new progress on the fifth station. Once finished, it will include a satellite ground station, which could be used to support Chinese intelligence collection efforts.
NEW! Our team painstakingly put together thousands of data points to construct an index that assesses China’s influence on countries through Covid-19 medical diplomacy and vaccine diplomacy. This feature is packed with data and new insights.
NEW: In a major new feature, ChinaPower assesses the scope and impact of Beijing's efforts to supply countries with Covid-19 medical aid and vaccines. The feature centers on an index built by ChinaPower, which scores China’s influence on each country.
NEW: China's government just announced a 2024 defense budget of RMB 1.67 trillion ($230.6 billion), a nominal 7.2% increase from last year.
That is the same % growth seen in 2023, and similar to other recent years.
According to
@DeptofDefense
, China sent three balloons over the U.S. during the Trump administration. The Pentagon likely didn’t announce that then because they were collecting their own intel on the balloons.