BloombergNEF
@BloombergNEF
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BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets & disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy.
London
Joined January 2010
The world’s largest international oil companies, or IOCs, sold over $198 billion of assets between 2015 and 2020, over four times the amount they invested into clean energy technologies. #BNEFNEO 2021
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Our 2018 Battery Price Survey has found that the volume-weighted average price of a lithium-ion battery pack is $176/kWh - the price has fallen 85% in real terms since 2010 due to tech improvements resulting in higher energy density at the cathode material, cell & pack level.
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Battery prices, which were above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 87% in real terms to $156/kWh in 2019. By 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh. Learn more from our 2019 Battery Price Survey here:
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Electric vehicles are already displacing nearly 1.8 million barrels of oil every day, a number set to double by 2027 and triple by 2029, per BloombergNEF's Road Fuel Outlook. 🔗 Read more: #FuelOutlook #ElectricVehicles
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Electric vehicles of all types are displacing 1.5 million barrels per day of oil usage. That’s nearly 3% of total road fuel demand. Discover more in BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023.
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Battery prices keep falling. As a result, we expect price parity between EVs and internal combustion vehicles (ICE) by the mid-2020s in most segments, though there is wide variation between geographies and vehicle segments. Learn more from #BNEFEVO 2019:
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“Hydrogen starts to be a viable alternative to fossil fuels by 2030, becoming very competitive by 2050.” – BNEF’s CEO @jon_dmoore sets the scene at day 1 of #BNEFSummit. Hydrogen is now talked about as a realistic solution on the road to decarbonization.
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By the end of 2019, a cumulative 270,000 barrels a day of diesel demand will have been displaced by electric buses, most of it in China, according to our latest report. That’s more than 3 times the displacement by all the world’s passenger EVs.
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Bloomberg NEF data indicate that the world has attained the landmark figure of 1TW of wind and solar generation capacity installed. We estimate that the second terawatt of wind and solar will arrive by mid-2023 and cost 46% less than the first.
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Our data indicates that the world has attained the landmark figure of 1TW of wind & solar generation capacity installed - the total is balanced between wind (54%) & solar (46%) & required approximately $2.3 trillion of capital expenditure to deploy.
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the world has attained the landmark figure of 1TW of wind (54%) & solar (46%) generation capacity installed. We estimate that the second terawatt of wind & solar will arrive by mid-2023 and cost 46% less than the first. Learn more:
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Are electric vehicles really that clean? . The answer is a resounding yes. EVs have lower lifecycle emissions than gas cars - and by 2030, the difference will be even starker.
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On #BNEFSummit stage, @beisgovuk Minister of State @KwasiKwarteng & Norway Minister for Petroleum & Energy Liv Lønnum agree: many mutual interests to pursue together in the North Sea, including carbon capture. A key piece to get to net zero, and there is a big market for it.
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The global solar market is hitting record highs in volume of installation - and record lows in the price of modules. In our Q3 2023 Global PV Market Outlook, we estimate global solar installations will rise 56% in 2023. Read more.
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- Lithium-ion battery costs have come down by more than 80% in 9 years.- Battery manufacturing capacity has increased more than 200-fold in 15 years. And, there is far more expansion planned. Learn more in 'How a Battery Can Lead a Quiet Revolution'.
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In Australia we’re looking at the hydrogen economy [as a way to decarbonize] b/c we can use wind & solar to produce hydrogen, and Japan & Korea are interested in how they can use it as an export fuel for heating and electrification. -@aazibelman CEO of @AEMO_Media @ #BNEFSummit
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20 U.S. coal-fired power plants have closed or are expected to close by year-end, making 2018 the top year for coal retirements since environmental regulations helped shutter 17 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in 2015. Learn more in this report excerpt.
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#NEO2018: Cheap battery storage will mean it becomes increasingly possible to finesse the delivery of electricity from wind & solar. The result will be renewables eating up more of the existing market for coal, gas & nuclear. 2018 Outlook highlights:
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Global new investment in renewable energy skyrocketed to $358 billion in the first six months of 2023, a 22% rise compared to the start of last year. Read the latest in BNEF's 2H 2023 Renewable Energy Investment Tracker report - released today.
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'Beyond the headlines' panel at #BNEFSummit: @lviscidi "U.S. becoming energy exporter doesn’t mean self-sufficiency or isolation from oil markets & rest of world politically". @sladislaw concurs "Gives U.S. options, but doesn't make it competitive de facto"
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#NEO2018 is out! . Highlights: .- Wind & solar will surge to '50 by 50' - 50% of world generation by 2050.- Batteries play a key role in the transition to '50 by 50'.- Coal will shrink to 11% of electricity generation by 2050. Learn more from the report:
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- Lithium-ion battery costs have come down by more than 80% in 9 years.- Battery manufacturing capacity has increased more than 200-fold in 15 years. And, there is far more expansion planned. Learn more in 'How a Battery Can Lead a Quiet Revolution':
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BNEF's @meredith_annex "Increasingly reasonable for oil companies to move into electricity. They see value. But not clear that their investors want them to diversify, or that they can achieve scale organically." Still, live audience polling at #BNEFSummit shows optimism on pace.
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Electric vehicle markets around the world are not all traveling in the same direction or at the same speed. BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024 shows that sales of EVs continue to rise globally, but some markets are experiencing a slowdown.
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- Emerging nations installed more wind & solar than fossil fuel generation in 2017, adding 186GW to their grids w/wind & solar accounting for 94GW. - Chile ranked #1 as the most attractive market for clean energy investment globally. #climatescope
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Corporations have already purchased 7.2GW of clean energy globally in 2018 through July, shattering the previous record of 5.4GW for the whole of 2017. Companies have signed long-term contracts to purchase solar & wind in 28 markets. Learn more here:
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.@EnelGroup CEO @starax at #BNEFSummit - It's not just about decarbonizing electricity: it's using electricity to decarbonize and displace fuels, or coal, out of industry, transportation, homes and buildings.
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#NEO2018: Cheap battery storage will mean it becomes increasingly possible to finesse the delivery of electricity from wind & solar. The result will be renewables eating up more of the existing market for coal, gas & nuclear. 2018 Outlook highlights:
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Our team has looked closely at the impact of the 79% drop seen in lithium-ion battery costs since 2010 on the economics of this storage tech in the electricity system. "The conclusions are chilling for the fossil fuel sector" @ElenaGiannakop . Learn more
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160GW of clean energy generating capacity (excluding large hydro) were commissioned in 2017: . 1. solar 98GW .2. wind 56GW.3. biomass & waste-to-energy 3GW.4. small hydro 2.7GW.5. geothermal 700MW .6. marine less than 10MW. Learn more: #BNEF2017.
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#EVO2019: "Battery prices will continue to fall. As a result, we expect price parity between EVs and internal combustion vehicles (ICE) by the mid-2020s in most segments, though there is wide variation between geographies and vehicle segments." Learn more:
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in a megacity, where buses travel at least 220km/day, using even the most expensive 350kWh e-bus instead of a CNG bus could bring $130,000 in operational cost savings over the 15-year lifetime of a bus. How will the e-bus market evolve?
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Cumulative passenger EV sales are set to hit 4 million this week and the next million EV sales will take just over 6 months. We expect the five-millionth EV to be sold in March 2019. Learn more in this report excerpt: #EVrevolution
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#NEO2018: Battery prices will reach $70/kWh by 2030, 67% down from today. This will have profound implications for power grids across the world that are seeing the share of variable renewable penetration grow. Learn more from the Outlook here:
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Our New Energy Outlook is out now! . The 2019 Outlook finds that deep declines in wind, solar & battery tech costs will result in a grid nearly half-powered by the 2 fast-growing renewable energy sources by 2050. More trends & highlights from #BNEFNEO here
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🚨 NEW FROM BNEF: Global clean energy investment surged 17% in 2023, hitting a record $1.8 trillion. Dive into the numbers in BNEF’s new Energy Transition Investment Trends 2024 report.
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With record levels of clean energy capacity additions, emerging markets reached a key milestone in 2017, & perhaps a major tipping point, as more wind & solar capacity was added to grids than fossil fuel capacity. Learn more from #climatescope 2018:
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Our 2018 EV Outlook is out now! According to our forecasts, EV sales will increase from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surge to 30 million in 2030. Learn more about the report and key findings here: #EVrevolution
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Solar PV & onshore wind are now the cheapest sources of new-build generation for at least two-thirds of the global population. Those two-thirds live in locations that comprise 71% of GDP & 85% of energy generation.
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The world has reached 1,000GW of wind & solar generation capacity installed. Our 2013 forecasts for onshore wind & small-scale PV ended up being very accurate. We were a bit too bullish on offshore wind, while utility-scale PV exceeded our expectations.
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“Hydrogen has potential to become the fuel that powers a clean economy. It will be possible to produce it at low cost using wind & solar power, to store it underground for months & then to pipe it on-demand to power everything from ships to steel mills.”
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The global energy storage market almost tripled in 2023, the largest year-on-year gain on record. 📊 . And in 2024, the market is set to add more than 100 GW-hours of capacity for the first time, largely driven by growth in China.
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The levelized cost of electricity per megawatt-hour for onshore wind, solar PV & offshore wind have fallen by 49%, 84% & 56% since 2010. That for lithium-ion battery storage has dropped by 76% since 2012. Find more analysis from our LCOE update here.
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'When the boss of an oil giant says his next car will be electric, it says a lot about the future of fossil fuels'
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#NEO2018: Wind & solar are set to surge to 50 by 50 – 50% of world generation by 2050 – on the back of precipitous reductions in cost & the advent of cheaper batteries that enable electricity to be stored & discharged to meet shifts in demand & supply.
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Our latest report on the levelized costs of electricity, or LCOE, for all the leading technologies finds that fossil fuel power is facing an unprecedented challenge in all 3 roles it performs in the energy mix. Learn more
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Industrial heat is nearly 30% of energy demand & it is correlated to CO2 emissions. There are 7 countries that matter, of which, China is huge. How technologies go from the west to China is really important. -BNEF CEO @jon_dmoore kicks of this year's New York #BNEFSummit
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The domination of lithium-ion batteries in energy storage may soon be challenged. In our Long-Duration Energy Storage Cost Survey, we found that while most new tech is still early and costly, some achieve lower costs than lithium-ion for longer durations.
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Could electric flights be a reality sooner than we think? . The #BNEFSummit audience initially thought their first electric flight would be 20-30 years away, but @VerticalAero, @ZeroAvia, @AirRaceE's presentations convinced attendees this was 5-10 years closer.
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The global offshore wind market is set to grow sixfold by 2030 as a result of a number of developments, such as higher turbine outputs & lower turbine costs,. Read BNEF's latest report:
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All forecasts signal accelerating demand for electric cars
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An 82% cost decline in PV modules and 76% cost decline in battery storage from 2010-2017 have made solar and battery storage cheap enough to play a key role in powering connectivity. Learn more in BNEF & @facebook's report. Key insights: #EnergyforGrowth
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Thanks to decreasing technology costs, we are on track to reach our Paris target (70% clean energy generation by 2050) 20 years in advance. For us energy was once the problem, and it is now the solution. Chile's Energy Minister, Susana Jiménez @susanajimenezs at #BNEFSummit
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Cumulative passenger EV sales are set to hit 4 million this week. The time needed to reach each consecutive million EVs sold has shrunk from 17 months for the second million to 6 months for the fourth million. Learn more in this report excerpt.
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The electrification of road transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s, thanks to tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing. Find highlights from the Electric Vehicle Outlook here: #EVrevolution
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Despite the tempered pace, #EV sales are heading for another record year. BloombergNEF estimates that global EV sales, including battery-electric and plug-in hybrids, will climb to 16.7 million units this year, up from 13.9 million in 2023. 💡 Read more:
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Our battery pack survey shows an 80% reduction in market price since 2010 – the product of an 18% learning rate. And manufacturing is expanding rapidly - by 2021, we expect that GWh number to more than triple, with China controlling around 73%. Learn more:
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Our Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 is out now! . We expect passenger EV sales to rise from 2 million worldwide in 2018 to 28 million in 2030 and 56 million by 2040. Find key trends and highlights from the Outlook here. #EVRevolution.
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By 2030, we expect 84% of all municipal bus sales globally to be electric. E-buses are the big new feature of this year's EV Outlook. Find more key trends and stats on the #EVrevolution in our free public report:
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In our 2017 EV Outlook, we estimated that EVs would account for 54% of new car sales by 2040, not 35% as previously forecasted. How will forecasts change as a result of EV's growing role in shared & autonomous driving? Find out soon in our 2018 EV Outlook #EVrevolution
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The electrification of road transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s, thanks to tumbling battery costs & larger-scale manufacturing, with sales of EVs racing to 28% of the global market by 2030. Learn more: #EVrevolution
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Corporations have already purchased 7.2GW of clean energy globally in 2018 through July, shattering the previous record of 5.4GW for the whole of 2017. Companies have signed long-term contracts to purchase solar & wind in 28 markets. Learn more here:
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Total installed wind & solar capacity has grown 65-fold since 2000 and more than quadrupled since 2010. Even more striking is the growth of solar PV alone - PV has grown from just 8% of total installed wind & solar capacity, to 46%. Learn more.
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- Renewable capacity has quadrupled from 414GW to about 1,650GW between 2010-2019. - Solar capacity alone has risen more than 26 times 2009 levels. - 2018 capacity investment reached USD 272.9 billion, triple the investment in fossil fuel generation.
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[1/5] Need a #hydrogen crash course? @kobadb takes the #BNEFSummit stage to talk us through hydrogen's “high hurdles, huge potential”.
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Global EV sales are headed for over 14 million sales this year, up 35% from 2022. 📈. China is driving the increase, and Europe has been surprisingly resilient. Why is the US further behind? Read @colinmckerrache's take.
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EV adoption forecasts continue to increase year over year, and so have ours. BNEF forecasts over 530 million EVs on the road by 2040. @colinmckerrache explains our view on EV adoption and why our forecasts differ. Learn more here:
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World clean energy investment totalled $333.5 billion last year, up 3% from 2016 and the second highest annual figure ever, taking cumulative investment since 2010 to $2.5 trillion. Read on for investment by country, sector & category:.#BNEF2017
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Lithium-ion battery pack prices, which were above $1,200 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, have fallen 89% in real terms to $132/kWh in 2021. This is a 6% drop from $140/kWh in 2020.
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#NEO2018: As older plants retire & others get pushed out – by an explosion of cheap wind & solar, then by cheap batteries – we think coal generation peaks globally in around 2027, before falling sharply to just 11% of world electricity by 2050. Learn more:
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In the 9-year period that we've been analyzing levelized costs of electricity, the benchmark LCOE for solar has tumbled by 77%, and that for onshore wind by 38%. How do other power-generating technologies compare?
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With record levels of clean energy capacity additions, emerging markets reached a key milestone in 2017, & perhaps a major tipping point, as more wind & solar capacity was added to grids than fossil fuel capacity. Learn more from the #climatescope report:
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Electric vehicles have only displaced a sliver of oil demand - 1.5 million barrels per day in 2022. But a turning point is near. According to BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, oil consumption displaced by EVs will rise to 20M+ barrels per day by 2040.
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Renewable energy production broke 13 records this year in the UK including: . 1. The first day with zero coal power .2. Longest period without coal generation.3. The first time that wind, solar & nuclear combined generated more than gas & coal combined .
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China will lead the transition from internal combustion engines to electric cars, with EV sales accounting for almost 50% of the global market from now to 2025 and 39% in 2030. Learn more from the 2018 EV Outlook here: #EVrevolution
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"The incredible shrinking EV battery doesn’t just mean cheaper electric passenger cars. It also means all sorts of other vehicles that weren’t previously practical to electrify now are — and beyond proof-of-concept scale, too." @NatBullard Read more:.
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Corporations have already purchased 7.2GW of clean energy globally in 2018, shattering the previous record of 5.4GW for the whole of 2017. What’s driving this growth?.Who’s leading the charge?.What can we expect moving forward?. Find out here.
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Regardless of whether the world heads for net zero, the era of fossil fuels’ dominance is coming to an end. Even if the transition is propelled by economics alone, with no further policy drivers, renewables could still cross a 50% share of electricity generation by 2030.
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Wind and solar are now cheapest across more than two-thirds of the world. By 2030 they undercut commissioned coal and gas almost everywhere. More on global electricity systems in this free interactive report: #BNEFNEO
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"It took about 10 years for EVs to get from 0% to 1% of global car sales, and only about 1 year to get from 1% to 2%" @colinmckerrache. Watch the full BNEF Talk to learn more about the factors driving global EV growth:
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In a megacity, where buses travel at least 220km/day, using even the most expensive 350kWh e-bus instead of a CNG bus could bring about $130,000 in operational cost savings over the 15-year lifetime of a bus. Findings from our e-bus adoption outlook here
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Battery storage is now the cheapest new-build technology for peaking purposes (up to 2-hours of discharge duration) in gas-importing regions, like Europe, China or Japan. More from our LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) analysis here.
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Energy storage investments boom as battery costs halve in the next decade - The 122-fold boom of stationary energy storage over the next two decades will require $662 billion of investment. Key trends from our Energy Storage Outlook 2019 here:
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The path to net zero is straightforward, yet brutally challenging. In the first of 2 parts exploring the bull and bear cases for net-zero transition, @MLiebreich lays out 5 reasons why anyone hoping for rapid global decarbonization is kidding themselves.
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"We expect the price of an average battery pack to be around $94/kWh by 2024 & $62/kWh by 2030. It’s necessary to highlight that this is the expected average price." @LoganGoldieScot answers questions on lithium-ion battery prices in this piece.
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"We expect the price of an average battery pack to be around $94/kWh by 2024 & $62/kWh by 2030. It’s necessary to highlight that this is the expected average price." @LoganGoldieScot answers questions on lithium-ion battery prices in his latest piece:
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'Tesla Inc. has partnered with Vestas Wind Systems A/S to figure out how to combine wind turbines and batteries'
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James Emmett, CEO of @HSBC Europe, looks forward to the power of financial disclosure combined with the European Commission’s upcoming green taxonomy. #BNEFSummit
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The first 1TW of wind & solar required approximately $2.3 trillion of capital expenditure to deploy. The second terawatt will cost significantly less, based on estimates from #NEO2018 expenditures on wind & solar will total $1.23 trillion from 2018-2022.
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We’re almost falling in the same trap as we did w/ solar, where we were underestimating the industry’s ability to cut cost & scale up. That’s what we might be seeing here w/ hydrogen. – @jonandrelokke of @nelhydrogen is optimistic on speed of hydrogen cost reduction. #BNEFsummit
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While blue hydrogen is cheaper today than ‘green’ hydrogen made from solar or wind electricity, the situation should reverse by 2030. We expect renewable hydrogen to be cheaper by 2030 in all modeled countries.
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E-Buses will surge even faster than EVs as conventional vehicles fade. EVO 2018 shows electric buses in almost all charging configurations having a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019. Learn more about the #EVrevolution:
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According to our EV Outlook forecasts, "the advance of e-buses will be even more rapid than for electric cars; in almost all charging configurations, e-buses will have a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019" #EVrevolution
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Solar panel roads being tested worldwide, commercialization expected in 2018
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By the end of 2019, a cumulative 270,000 barrels a day of diesel demand will have been displaced by e-buses, most of it in China. That’s more than three times the displacement by all the world’s passenger EVs. Learn more in this report excerpt:
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Economic tipping points mean renewable energy will account for over half of electricity generation by the mid-2020s in the UK & Germany. Access the report:
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Electric Vehicle Outlook: Sales of EVs will increase from a record 1.1 million last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surge to 30 million in 2030 as they establish cost advantage over internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. Learn more #EVrevolution
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#NEO2018 sees $11.5 trillion being invested globally in new power generation capacity between 2018 & 2050, with $8.4 trillion of that going to wind & solar and a further $1.5 trillion to other zero-carbon technologies such as hydro & nuclear. Learn more:
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'Renewables are just mainstream power generating technology. ' says @MLiebreich at #BNEFSummit. Slides:
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