Gracelin Baskaran
@GraceBaskaran
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Economist working on critical minerals. PhD from Cambridge. Director, Project on Critical Minerals Security @csis
Joined March 2016
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Friday dinner with one of my favorite humans and intellectual sounding boards
@WandileSihlobo
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I owe a lot to this moment on a mountain in Mpumalanga years ago, when
@WandileSihlobo
convinced me to keep running with intellectual work on critical minerals, at a time when mining wasn’t sexy.
Thanks for this. And for being my speed dial sounding board at 2 am & best friend.
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Thanks for turning this journal article into a coffee mug
@WandileSihlobo
. Tuesday morning coffee tastes better when thinking about how happy I am to never have to do a PhD again.
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Lucky to call
@WandileSihlobo
my best friend. A few years ago, he got me to write my first op-ed for
@BDliveSA
. I’ve since written 92 op-eds and columns. Power to the pen, he said. Has read a dozen or so of my papers too. Still my first speed dial, personally & professionally.
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I remember where I was sitting when I found out the stalemate with Eritrea had finally ended. Had been at the Ethiopia/Eritrea border a few months earlier, wondering what it would take to finally foster cooperation. An award very well deserved!
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Published an op-ed in
@BDliveSA
today on how climate change is undermining both economic and financial stability in Southern Africa.
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@nicktandi
@khayadlanga
Definitely. I tip until it’s a minimum of R100 for the ride. With Uber’s 25% cut, they can’t be net positive with fuel costs in start and stop traffic… it’s criminal. The minimum ride cost is like R23, Uber takes 25% and then driver gets $1 for trip and fuel is $1.25+/litre 😳
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Mineral Economics has published my article on how
#platinumgroupmetals
firms are managing risks. This took 4 years of crunching market intelligence numbers, going underground into the mines, meeting mining execs, etc.
@Implats
@AngloAmerican
@SIBSTILL
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China recently banned the export of rare earth extraction & separation technologies. Rare earths are the bedrock of national/energy security - and China processes 90% of them. What are the implications of the ban? Read more in my
@CSISEnergy
commentary
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Excellent piece by
@wang_seaver
and
@vijramachandran
.
The math on universal energy access exclusively through renewables for a population that will grow from 1 to 2 billion doesn’t add up. 590m don’t have power as is.
Many advocates insist African countries starting today no longer need anything other than solar, wind + storage. Such a platform has no basis in reality and risks harming development + energy access efforts.
@vijramachandran
+ myself in
@ForeignPolicy
:
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With South Africa's Investment Conference ongoing, why is adopting a regional mindset detrimental? Read my editorial here:
#investment
#southafrica
#southernafrica
#manufacturing
#agriculture
#economicdevelopment
#InvestmentConference
#global
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Had the chance to chat with
@OliviaEarth
on
@earth_cast
about the sustainability polycrisis, the need for environmentally sustainable economic development and the need for data driven policymaking. The episode is available on all major streaming platforms.
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Great presentation on greening economic development by
@Amirlbd
at the
@WorldBank
. Regional cooperation is key to enabling African countries to benefit from green industrialisation. Countries will struggle to develop a comparative advantage if using a nationalistic approach.
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New op-ed, exploring why increased harvests, without favorable market policies, is like pouring water into a bottomless bucket. Written with the brilliant
@WandileSihlobo
.
#agriculture
#agribusiness
#malawi
#southafrica
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I was cited in this new piece with
@ForeignPolicy
, discussing the new - and significant - role the Middle East is playing in the global critical minerals arena.
As the clean energy transition takes off, the Middle East’s biggest players are making sure they have a seat at the table.
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@WandileSihlobo
and I wrote a Business Day op-ed arguing that while industrialization is important, most African economies lack the infrastructure & capital to bring it about 'now.' Thus, primary sectors are critical for financing long-term development.
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I have a new op-ed out today arguing that South Africa’s platinum group metals sector is the country’s best shot of stimulating economic growth while also being part of the global clean energy transition. Read more here-
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@MssZeeUsman
I tried it today for the first time and out of curiosity, asked it to write talking points on strengthening climate resilience in small states. Quite sure it was better than any talking points I’ve read or heard… 💀
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Thanks to
@LourensaEckard
for having me on
@in_gesprek
last night to discuss the future of the SA’s mining sector and what it takes to bring investors back in.
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@_OrkunSaka
@Cambridge_Uni
A great piece from a couple years ago on how teaching at Oxbridge is a privilege for old money. Four years in Cambridge and I can tell you cost of living rivals London.
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South Africa has 80% of the world’s platinum and chromium…and 70% of manganese. The US may not want to start an economic war that can have serious critical minerals security implications. It’s within a country’s right to take a case to the ICJ.
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Thank you to the
@ChicagoFed
for inviting me to talk about critical minerals - priority minerals for the EV transition, drivers of commodity price volatility, the Inflation Reduction Act domestic content requirements and Foreign Entity of Concern rules, etc.
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10000%
I wonder if the
#Springboks
know they are also playing for our national pride, eggs and the rand 🙏🏾🙏🏾
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Driving in bumper to bumper traffic from Pretoria to Joburg in morning rush hour with a stick shift/manual is not doing it for me today.
It’s like I forgot that I drove a manual for much of my 10 years abroad. DC has made me a softie.
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In case you missed it, my latest piece: A blueprint for how Africa can play to its strengths
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Today,
@barrymaher7
and I published a piece with
@BrookingsInst
about why ag insurance is financial instrument with multi-dimensional benefits to strengthen economic resilience amidst climatic shocks. More here:
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New
@WorldBankAfrica
blog on the importance of strengthening the competitiveness of Lesotho's export manufacturing sector, co-authored with
@MarieMarieNelly
. Exciting to see the World Bank & Government of Lesotho prioritize growth of the sector
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Great panel at the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh today with
@frank_fannon
,
@charles_hendry
and Ernst Mueller. We talked about what it takes to make mining responsible, mutually beneficially and commercially viable in emerging markets.
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Diplomatic relations between 2 countries should not rely on an Ambassador/single person. Here, I argue that minerals diplomacy has a critical role in rebuilding better US-SA bilateral relations.
(Written as American mining economist who spent 7 years in South Africa...)
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Check out our op-ed!
SA agriculture has some valuable lessons for struggling Malawi, write Gracelin Baskaran and Wandile Sihlobo
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I go to
@Seattlecoffeeco
enough that I routinely get free coffees. And no matter how hectic my morning is, I always walk away with a smile because the service is exceptional, regardless of which location I wander into to. Also their panda bars are to die for.
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New column out tomorrow!
GRACELIN BASKARAN: Ditching coal for renewables will help tackle inequality
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When you land in South Africa and your ‘yoh’ returns like you never left. Can’t take 7 years out of your vocabulary apparently.
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Interviewed by one of my favorite journalists,
@chaseawinter
at
@energyintel
on the new Lobito Corridor Project amidst the Angolan state visit to the White House this week. We talked about the importance of US minerals diplomacy.
More here:
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Many of these are resource rich countries with critical minerals. Elections can easily affect who countries partner with, resource nationalism, transparency of deals, permitting, etc. Something to keep an eye on, no doubt.
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@haugejostein
You need to look at these numbers as a share of respective GDP. Absolute numbers tell a skewed story. A low income economy with a GDP per capital of $1100 doesn’t need the same amount of stimulus to keep an economy buoyant as a high income country….
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Looking forward to speaking at the Future Minerals Forum in Saudi next week! It’s such an important moment in history to make the responsible minerals investments we need to achieve future energy security and meet our decarbonization goals.
@FutureMineral
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Please join if you’re available to. I’ll be a panellist, discussing the nexus between public finance and climate change.
Join us in 2 hrs for our 90 minute webinar on how climate change directly impacts Southern African environments and economies, especially in economies that are heavily dependent on agriculture.
Register now:
#climatevulnerabilitymonitor
@V20Group
@TheCVF
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You can make data tell any story you want. But rationally, a country with a GDP per capita of $1,100 doesn’t need the same amount of budgetary support and fiscal stimulus to keep their economy buoyant as a country with a GDP per capita of $66,000.
Here's how the IMF is distributing its historic $650bn pandemic support package among its member states:
Low-income countries: $21bn
Middle-income countries: $254bn
High-income countries: $375bn
You can't make this stuff up.
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I lived in a mining town in South Africa for 2 years that had a King who chose to partner with the NBA. It was transformative. They had nice courts, trained coaches, jerseys. Hosted NBA players every year. For one, girls were less likely to get pregnant and drop out of school.
The signing of an agreement with the National Basketball Association (NBA) will facilitate the development of basketball infrastructure in Kenya, with the capacity to host top-level competitions.
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One of my favorite part of most days, is the work we’re doing to strengthen South Africa’s financial preparedness to handle climatic shocks, which will increase in frequency and severity, and poses significant risk to fiscal sustainability.
@WorldBankAfrica
Why Climate Change Vulnerability Is Bad for Sovereign Credit Ratings
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After 7 African winters, I am struggling to come to terms with a Washington DC winter.
Though I will say…central heating is a very welcome thing. 10 years in the UK and SA and central heating never existed in my life.
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The IMF and S&P have sounded alarms over South Africa’s economy. Why is it time to shift focus from symptoms to the cause of the current economic challenges? Read my editorial here:
#southafrica
#investment
#economy
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An excellent piece to read with your morning coffee. A reminder of why formalising artisanal and small scale mining is key to preventing the development and growth of a criminal system. Once it starts, it’s hard to stop it
The Dystopian Underworld of South Africa’s Illegal Gold Mines
When the country’s mining industry collapsed, a criminal economy grew in its place, with thousands of men climbing into some of the deepest shafts in the world, searching for leftover gold.
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What a heartbreaking trend of avoidable deaths for kids aged 1 to 24. How the NRA lobby still sleeps at night is beyond me.
For more than 60 years motor-vehicle crashes were the leading cause of death for young people in America. But since 2017 guns have killed more people between the ages of one and 24 ⬇️
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South Africa did what China refused to: be transparent. China’s approach killed millions, South Africa’s approach allowed scientists to openly share the sequencing, transmissibility & symptoms so the world can learn & prepare. Don’t economically cripple us for choosing integrity.
Just out in the top British Medical Journal - How the UK's travel ban on South Africa will not be effective to decrease transmission of
#Omicron
, will damage the economy in Africa and may decrease the transparency of scientists & countries in the world!
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2023 ushered in a wave of Chinese critical mineral restrictions - gallium, graphite, germanium. Yesterday’s announcement banning rare earths extraction/separation technology exports will slow efforts to dilute china’s 90% hold on global processing
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I hope (and pray) this is the start of the end to legal lynching and a system that enables it.
With the trial over and Chauvin heading to jail, the original Minneapolis police report of the George Floyd killing hits hard.
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New column out. Base metal prices are very volatile right now - lithium is down 70% and nickel 40% since the start of 2023. Cobalt edging all time low. But mining firms need to pursue countercyclical spending - delaying exploration & production will cost us dearly in the future.
GRACELIN BASKARAN: Miners should focus on countercyclical exploration, output
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‘More than 2,500 mining applications received in FY 2023/24, not one finalised.’
You can have $2.4tn of resources underground, but doesn’t do much good if you can’t mine it. SA has become a dead spot for greenfield mining investments.
This underscores SA's urgent need for a functional mining cadastre, but even that has process has gone over a cliff. My report ... EXCLUSIVE — Gwede Mantashe reigns as the minister of no new mining as DMRE lacks admin capacity
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Proud of a President who acts decisively despite the risks associated with facing re-election in 4 years. Thanks Joe. So proud of the direction you’re taking America in.
We need to ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines in this country.
There’s no reason somebody needs a weapon of war with 100 rounds in a magazine. None.
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What a great
@MiningIndaba
. It was such a privilege to be part of panels with ministers and high-ranking officials from Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia, the U.S. and UK, along with some great CEOs. Looking forward to 2025 already.
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Talking critical minerals with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy with
@JosephMajkut
. Proud of the expertise and thought leadership we have on it at
@CSISEnergy
.
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The US is one of South Africa’s biggest trade & investment partners. My column argues that SA should consider being more strategic with foreign policy to avoid economic fallout, amidst a month that’s included greylisting & an energy crisis. Read here:
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Today's column focuses on why forthcoming interest rate cuts will drive up commodity prices - a welcome reprieve for many mining companies. Collapsing prices over the last 2 years has left many scratching their heads, given medium to long term demand forecasts showing we're going
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Why does addressing rural-urban inequality require more than a technological leapfrog? Read my
@dailymaverick
editorial here:
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If you’re at COP28 today, come by and listen to a great discussion with our US delegation & an African delegation on critical minerals partnerships. Helaina Matza, Special Coordinator for PGII, will open the discussion.
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Happy birthday
@WandileSihlobo
- hope you stuff your face full of carrot cake. Only a few years left before we have to cut sugar out of our diets 😅
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Great to bring this exciting event together with
@MarieMarieNelly
,
@USEmbassyMaseru
,
@PrimeMinisterLS
and
@investlndc
, amongst 120 other brilliant minds! We’re thrilled to be launching a survey with
@DPRU_UCT
to quantify challenges & support effective interventions.
@WorldBank
Happy to join this exciting webinar to look at ways to help the Kingdom of Lesotho recapture its export manufacturing shares in the US market and to expand its position in Southern Africa!
@WorldBank
@AGOAinfo
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Today’s column in in
@BDliveSA
reflects on the White House’s statement on US-South Africa relations earlier this week and the administration’s interest in advancing the relationship.
Non paywall version here:
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Have a forthcoming paper with
@econrsa
on the impact of various decarbonization policies on South African trade. The carbon intensity of SA's motor exports is over 3x higher than its imports. 70% of SA's vehicle exports go to EU. Serious economic consequences await.
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New editorial! Should mining companies bear the burden of protecting unprofitable jobs or should the government step up its protection of the people?
#mining
#labor
#retrenchments
#southafrica
#automation
#mechanization
#platinum
#socialprotection
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@TimothyKohler
@WandileSihlobo
I’ll make you a mug when you’re done (and recovering from short term PTSD),
@TimothyKohler
🙂
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@WandileSihlobo
Is this because people only have to work a 1/2 day from home since the power is out for the other 1/2? Asking for a friend.
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Uranium prices nearly doubled between January and December 2023 - from $50/lb to $90/lb. They hit a 15 year high. Expect a significant surge in uranium prices over the next year as we focus on building global nuclear power.
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Proof that economic recovery will be long, that the path of expansionary fiscal policies vs fiscal consolidation will be a challenging balance, and that shock responsive safety nets must be part of the way forward.
c. 30 million Africans were pushed into extreme poverty in 2020 as a result of Covid-19, with a further 9 million at risk. It has increase inequality and, as with most shocks, has disproportionately affect women.
Sobering.
#AfricanEconomicOutlook2021
@AfDB_Group
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@MssZeeUsman
Except without social media, so they didn’t realise the compounding chaos that was simultaneously unfolding across the world.
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@johnpmcdermott
Breton woods has read my scans before! As someone who works at the world bank, I laughed a little harder…
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Today’s column is a more personal one - a reflection of the 20th anniversary of the September 11th attacks. You can read the full piece here:
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@RobinBrooksIIF
I think we need that coffee to discuss why Brazil is the heart of the global south,
@RobinBrooksIIF
. I think I differ on this.
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Climate-trade policies have been on my mind a lot lately. Perhaps most acutely as I see how CBAM - which I really like as a policy - will obliterate the South African economy given the carbon intensity of its automotive exports (of which 70% go to to Europe).
Rich world uses green policies to hold back the poor, says UN trade chief
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New op-Ed on
@BDliveSA
with
@WandileSihlobo
- ‘
#ClimateChange
is opening a window of
#EconomicOpportunity
for
#Zimbabwe
, a country that has long been on the periphery of the global economy due to political and economic instability.’
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IEJ’s economics have long been impractical - incl advocating for pushing up debt. SA can’t have another credit rating downgrade
Now, progressive tax already hitting over 50% is painful. Top income earner leaving is crushing revenue. Improve existing expenditure efficiency
South Africa’s top income earners should pay a wealth tax to fund the basic income grant (BIG) and help take millions of South Africans out of poverty. That’s according to IEJ and the Applied Development Research Solutions. |
@City_Press
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I was interviewed as an expert by
@FoxNews
. “Human rights and mining for the clean energy transition are not mutually exclusive endeavors.”
We need mine more, responsibly, to meet our net zero goals. 400,000 people/yr are dying from the effects of climate change. That’s a crisis
Biden admin's drive for green energy leads to accusations of forced child labor mining for EV battery metals
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@JosephMajkut
The painful reminder that there’s no such thing as new news; old news happening to new people. 1877/2023.
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Anything shorter than that 16 hour NYC-Johannesburg flight feels short. 8 hours? Cake walk.
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Never have I seen my twitter feed so full of love and hope. Such a great change from the usual rage against Eskom and Transnet. I love it. I love it so much. Looking forward to a great game today.
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@haugejostein
Do all these low income countries need more debt? Quite a few of them in Sub-Saharan Africa are in debt distress already. Zambia defaulted. Arguably, grants are better than lending for many of these low income countries. Middle income countries are in a better position to repay.
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Would just like to point out she’s the first FLOTUS to hold a paying job whilst her husband is running the country. And she has a PhD. And the media is having a field day about her tights ... find me a man criticized for his outfit? Go Jill, go. Keep trailblazing.
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@ReubenBrigety
@ChickenLickenSA
So lovely to have you here! As an American and fellow Cambridge POLIS PhD grad in South Africa, would be lovely to connect at some point! 🙂
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I have a new discussion paper out with
@econrsa
. It (roughly) calculates the cost of the carbon border adjustment mechanism & EU ICE vehicle ban on South Africa - which has the 2nd highest carbon intensity embedded in its gross exports globally
Read here:
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New column out tomorrow!
GRACELIN BASKARAN: Afghan retreat hands green energy crown to Beijing on a lithium platter
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The loss of a great leader. Preserved good governance and stability. A fierce advocate of diversifying a resource-dependent economy, and building renewable energy to meet carbon neutrality goals. Still, never lost sight of Namibia’s resource-driven inequality.
Announcement of the Passing of H.E Dr
@hagegeingob
, President of the Republic of Namibia, 04 February 2024
Fellow Namibians,
It is with utmost sadness and regret that I inform you that our beloved Dr. Hage G. Geingob, the President of the Republic of Namibia has passed on
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Never. Such majestic creatures. And smart ones! (Photos courtesy of my weekend safari!)
Gonna have to add elephant slaughter to the set of opportunities in voluntary carbon markets.
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@mininghistory
@ingridharvold
@ysi_commons
Quote from an interview earlier this week! Short sighted vision with long term consequences.
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My training for the Chicago Marathon has justifiably been put on pause as DC approaches 100 degrees. Think there’s going to have to be a delay in fall marathon season in years to come.
Breaking News: July is on track to be Earth’s hottest month on record, scientists said, as the planet enters an extended period of exceptional warmth.
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Stay tuned for tomorrow’s column on why sourcing of key commodities will have to be rewired amidst coups in the Sahel (hint: coup countries have uranium, manganese and gold).
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