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Scott Kennedy Profile
Scott Kennedy

@KennedyCSIS

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Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business & Economics, Center for Strategic & International Studies

Washington, DC
Joined March 2012
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
18 days
NEW @CSISCBE @StanfordSCCEI #BigDataChina report by @mazzocco_ilaria & me on findings by @Harvard Martin K. Whyte, @Stanford Scott Rozelle & team: Chinese now see inequality as unfair, w/ their fate decided by econ system, not one's own abilities & effort.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
1 year
In Beijing I was watching CNN story on yesterday’s TikTok Congressional hearing, but when report on hearing about Xinjiang was about to start, this screen appeared and remained until the report had apparently ended.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
When someone says that "one country, two systems" still exists, just send them the growing list of Hong Kongers being arrested and accused of a crime that didn't exist 2 months ago based on a law imposed unilaterally by Beijing.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
11 months
“US sanctions were intended to slow China’s progress in emerging fields…by cutting off its ability to buy or build advanced semiconductors... The unveiling of a domestically produced seven-nanometer chip suggests that has not happened.”
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
6 years
China still won't give Visa and MasterCard market access 6+ yrs after losing WTO case. China UnionPay now has 36% global market share, Visa 32%, MasterCard 20%. Why should the US allow China UnionPay to continue operating in the US? #reciprocity
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
JUST OUT! @CSISCBE survey finds 26% of Taiwanese companies have already moved some of their production or sourcing out of Mainland China & another 33% are considering doing so. They're deeply worried about China's business environment & the chances of war.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
Xi has outdone his 2017 Davos speech, which announced China as the true guardian of globalization. Today's centered on attacking "ideological prejudice." Translation: the world (US & its allies) should fully accept authoritarian, state-capitalist systems.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
For Chinese-language listeners: I was honored to talk with @nytimes China analyst extraordinare & @bumingbaipod host Li Yuan about my recent trip & take on the 20th Party Congress & future of US-China relations. Pardon my so-so Chinese! 我的汉语讲得不好,请原谅!
@bumingbaipod
不明白播客
2 years
美国国际战略研究中心的甘思德⁦ @KennedyCSIS ⁩ 是中国经济政策领域的顶尖专家,他频繁往返于中美逾30年。他刚在中国待了一个多月,与外交部、企业、研究机构的各方人士见面. 本周袁莉⁦ @LiYuan 采访甘思德,了解他眼中的中国以及中美关系 官网:
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
The trade war has mightily hurt farmers. To make matters worse, the US will dole out $46B in ag subsidies this year, making it harder to attack China for its massive ag & industrial subsidies. Reigning in China, Inc. was the purpose of the trade war, no?
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
China is now saying everything important to negotiate - tech transfer, subsidies, enforcement - impinge on its sovereignty, hence off the table. Result: gridlock, further escalation, weakened Chinese economy.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Any US complaint that Japan's signing of TPP deprives the US of market opportunities in Japan is unfair. It was the US who persuaded Japan in 2013 to seek TPP membership and the US who abandoned TPP in 2017:
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
8 months
Dear @united , So glad you're resuming the @Dulles_Airport - Beijing direct flight. Q: How can you in good conscience charge $8,612 for roundtrip economy and $47,493 for roundtrip business? How does that even make good business sense?
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
“Wishing an agreement does not one make. This isn’t a skinny deal. It’s an invisible one.”
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
“How do you form a united front against China when the U.S. is bullying its allies, trashing multilateral institutions and pushing an economic decoupling from China that no one else supports?”
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
1 year
This @washingtonpost piece highlights drop in US imports from China, but it misses fact that some of this decline is made up by Chinese cos who've invested in SE Asia. Results is not US-CH decoupling, but more indirect trade & investment ties.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
1 year
This article exaggerates the differences b/t European & US firms in China. I don't see GM, Tesla, Ford & others in US auto industry pulling back from China. No one is abandoning the world's largest auto market.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 months
For several months observers of China have wondered why Xi & the leadership haven't take more decisive steps to fix the economy & restore consumer & producer confidence. I've encountered 4 alternative hypotheses, what could be dubbed "the 4 No's" (四个不).
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
Former Chinese Vice FM He Yafei forgets that the US and China are different. The US government CANNOT "restrict and guide" American think tanks because they are independent. An open exchange of ideas should be welcomed & supported, not feared & squelched.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Today is @MichaelKovrig ’s birthday. He will not celebrate w/ friends and family, watch the Superbowl, or even go for a walk. Please keep him and fellow Canadian Michael Spavor, who are both still being detained by the Chinese government, in your thoughts. .
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
6 years
My signing reflects deep affection for China yet growing frustration & worry. The detentions don't fit actions of a responsible stakeholder. Skyscrapers, speedy trains & supercomputers yield admiration, but abiding respect comes from humane governance.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
1 year
Momentum to expand restrictions on Chinese ownership of land in the US is growing. Excellent piece, w/ useful data and analysis, by @thewirechina & @GradyMcGregor .
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
11 months
The oddest thing about this isn’t the critical view of the US, but that the MSS is offering its view at all. With CCP Intl Liaison Dept also more active now, raises Q as to why they’re speaking up & Ministry of Foreign Affairs seems to be less prominent.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
RCEP will be signed on Sunday, with a seat kept available for India. The US will then be on the outside looking in of TWO regional trade agreements.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Finally, the Trump administration admits that there is no deal yet. The only definitive thing that happened on Friday was for the US to delay the Oct 15th tariff increase.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
1 year
“China’s decision making is as hidden from our view as ...ever...but China’s economic weakness is obvious for all to see, even China’s leaders, which can’t help but be 1 source of the recent moderation in foreign policy & willingness to engage Washington"
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
1 month
JUST OUT! By our conservative count, Chinese industrial policy spending on its EV sector for 2009-2023 totaled $230.8 billion, = to 18.8% of total sales. For our numbers & the dilemma such support & improving quality create for Western policymakers, see:
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
My bottomline on US-China talks: “If we walk away with just some purchase commitments, that means this whole process would have been essentially for nothing. We need to get a lot more or this wasn’t worth it.”
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
Is Japan decoupling from China in high tech? No. Exhibit A.
@BBGNewEconomy
Bloomberg New Economy
4 years
Toyota is forming a joint venture with five Chinese companies to develop fuel cells for commercial vehicles
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
1 year
Whether friends or foes, the US and China need to restore much more direct communication between our societies. Latest from @PKU1898 Wang Jisi & myself. via @ForeignAffairs
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
Policy vacuum in Beijing: Only 7 weeks into his 3rd term, is Xi overwhelmed by the challenges? They replaced Zero-Covid with nothing (& chaos). Now no Central Econ Work Conference. Something weird is going on.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
Blatant hypocrisy. China’s ban on Facebook, Instagram, Youtube & many other social media violate the WTO’s rules. No one should pay any attention to China’s complaints until it opens up its social media market.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
9 months
Clear, crisp day in Beijing.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
6 years
With all due respect to CNN & Dennis Rodman, so glad it was @CSIS night on MSNBC, with my insightful colleagues @VictorDCha and @SueMiTerry helping us understand the Singapore summit.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 months
PRC historian Shen Zhihua: “I think the most fundamental mistake Stalin made was to completely decouple [the Soviet Union] from the US and create an internal cycle within the socialist camp. So there cannot be economic decoupling.”
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
The 18 countries whose leaders have announced they’re skipping the Beijing Olympics over human rights or Covid have an avg Freedom score of 89.6/100. The 10 who are attending have an avg score of only 37.9.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
As @MargaretKLewis says, ending the Fulbright Program w/ China & HK is "shooting ourselves in the foot." As a proud alum (2008-09), the program has helped 1000s of Americans better understand China, which is critical whether the PRC is friend or foe.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
“Twitter’s radically reduced anti-propaganda team grappled on Sunday with a flood of nuisance content in China that researchers said was aimed at reducing the flow of news about stunning widespread protests against coronavirus restrictions.”
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
What’s going on w/ ARM in China may be more important than the hullabaloo over TikTok. Relevant for whether China can effectively nationalize a foreign-invested company and its pursuit of tech independence.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
When in China in late 2019, I more often heard the opposite. Chinese believe they had figured out Trump's pattern: He starts w/ big threats & demands but then accepts minor concessions & declares big victories. Plus, he hurts US ties w/ its allies.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Chinese netizens found that national champion #Huawei 's phones are not sufficiently patriotic. I checked mine & found that when selecting timezone, mainland cities & Hong Kong are identified as part of the PRC, but Taipei is called part of Taiwan. Oops! .
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
By "understanding China," President Xi means "agree with the CCP's positions." The CCP assigns itself the right to define & adjudicate "truth." When non-Chinese offer differing view on big issues, they are often dismissed as not understanding China.
@XHNews
China Xinhua News
5 years
President Xi meets delegates attending Understanding China Conference
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 months
We compared China and 7 other economies, and China is far and away the world’s largest industrial policy spender. It’s not even close. .
@ChuziChips
J.Bar
5 months
@Macromumbling @KennedyCSIS The US subsidizes its industry as well, but the Chinese aren't allowed to?
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
6 years
If @PIIE 's Nick Lardy concludes China's economic reforms have hit a wall & the state is overtaking the market, everyone should take notice. That's damning! There is no one more careful or who takes China's own data more seriously. Remember his last book: Markets Over Mao (2014).
@WSCRCWA
WSCRC
6 years
BOOK TALK with Dr. Nick Lardy: The Demise of Economic Reform Unnder Xi Jinping. Join us January 23 at Dorsey & Whitney. Register and find out more:
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
President Trump's claim on Monday that China is "more than living up to" the Phase-1 deal's purchase agreement couldn't be further from the truth. It's the part of the deal they are furthest from sticking to.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
And America doesn't have to be China's next great enemy either. @zacharykarabell ignores that the downturn in US-China is attributable to Xi Jinping, not Washington. A "softer" US approach wouldn't help (& might hurt) if Beijing doesn't change course.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
I get his point, but Americans SHOULD learn Chinese & other languages, which isn't a sign of US weakness but a source of its strength & global leadership. And knowing a foreign language is increasingly essential in many professions.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
1 year
This @ForeignChinese statement on “US hegemony” deserves attention for its criticism of the US, suggesting China’s leadership is unsatisfied w/ the current int’l order & uncomfortable co-existing w/ the US, let alone cooperating on major issues. (1/x)
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
The possibility that the US will temporarily grant a general waiver to US suppliers of Huawei to prevent collateral damage - damaged networks globally - shows how poorly thought through the original decision was. Keystone cops would do better.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
China lost two big WTO cases this week, re the EU's treatment of China as a non-market economy and the US complaint against Chinese agricultural goods quotas. Let's not give up on the WTO just yet: it needs reform, not abandonment.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
7 months
Increasingly feels like China has two foreign ministers, Wang Yi, who officially holds this role, and Liu Jianchao, head of the CCP's Int'l Liaison Dept (中联部), who travels extensively and quite publicly, unlike his predecessors.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
Amb Qing Gang: “China and Russia’s cooperation has no forbidden areas, but it has a bottom line. That line is the tenets and principles of the United Nations Charter, the recognized basic norms of international law and international relations.”
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
The big news out of China’s annual legislative session is PM Li Keqiang’s announcement that the 2022 growth target is “around 5.5%.” Vast majority of media coverage highlights this is the lowest target in several decades. I have a DIFFERENT take. (THREAD: 1/x)
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
3 years
China too embarrassed to let the world witness a kangaroo court.
@nvanderklippe
Nathan VanderKlippe
3 years
Diplomats and media being kept outside at Michael Kovrig trial, which is scheduled to start in 15 minutes.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
China is as ready to join CPTPP as I am to play in the NBA. This is nonsense.
@henrysgao
Henry Gao
4 years
Fresh off the press from the Central Economics Works Meeting concluded yesterday: China will be actively considering joining the CPTPP.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
6 years
At @BloombergNEF @ianbremmer asks the audience to raise hands if they thought Wang Qishan speech showed new willingness by Beijing for more liberalization, compromise. Almost no one raised their hand. Wang didn’t win the room over.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
A predictable reaction to the US freezing funds to WHO. The result: WHO survives, Chinese influence grows, US sidelined.
@SpokespersonCHN
Hua Chunying 华春莹
4 years
China has decided to donate additional $30 million in cash to WHO to support its global fight against #COVID19 , in particular strengthening developing countries' health systems. China already donated $20 million in cash to WHO on March 11.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Super excited to welcome @judeblanchette to @CSIS as the new Chair of the @CSISFreeman program. With him and our @ChinaPowerCSIS colleague, @BonnieGlaser , we have an absolutely fantastic team providing in-depth analysis of Chinese politics, economics, and security.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
This @postopinions piece by Steve Bannon is full of hyperbolic nonsense. Worry about China & defend against it, yes; freak out & pursue its collapse, no. His "six understandings" should be called the "six misunderstandings":
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
A first step toward de-listing Chinese firms in the US.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
See why it's a misnomer to call the C919 (the PRC's alternative to the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320) a "Chinese" plane. Every part that keeps it in the air is from the US and Europe.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
6 years
Canada’s former ambassador to China: “We must finally see China for what it truly is”: @globeandmail
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
China & the CCP will get lots of mileage from pictures of rioters storming the US Capitol, but if Chinese could see tonight’s House of Rep debate whether the election was fair, w/ principled speeches on both sides, they’d know why I still feel lucky to live in a democracy. /1
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Workday ends on Friday in China without confirmation of a deal by Beijing. This is the 5th time in last 2.5 years there's been a premature announcement or expectation of a deal: July 2017, May 2018, April 2019, Oct 2019 & yesterday.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
17 days
MUST READ! Today's speech by @USTreasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh on China's overcapacity problem was thoughtful, detailed & balanced. Appreciate the shout-out to @CSIS for our research on industrial policy spending.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Kudlow: “The reality is we would like to negotiate.” Reality: China has lost interest in a deal because they don't trust Trump. Kudlow: “The Chinese economy is crumbling." Reality: The economy has slowed but is stable, & they have room to stimulate.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
How should the Biden administration sort through all of the restrictions on China Trump put in place over the last 3 years? My suggestions:
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
3 years
China now essentially gets two votes at the WTO. Likely to encounter increasing criticism.
@maryhui
Mary Hui
3 years
Hong Kong is blocking the appointment of a Taiwanese delegate—who has the support of most other parties & is the only remaining candidate after the other delegate pulled out—as chair of a @WTO committee because "sensitivities."
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
2 years
Main takeaway from Xi's 20th PC speech: Unapologetic continuity. On ideology, dvlpt, equity, Covid, tech, the int'l system, Taiwan. Ambiguity on Covid leaves room for change & no new language on Taiwan means no short deadline. But speech won't reassure industry, US, & the West.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Amazing how far Mnuchin has moved in past year, from negotiating superficial framework agreement in May '18, to being comfortable w/ pressure campaign. I'd credit learning more about China during negotiations, not instinct to stay in line w/ USTR or Trump.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
7 years
Chinese at Davos "giddy" about "globalism with Chinese characteristics." My translation: Illiberal system that encourages trade & investment coupled w/ deep govt intervention to serve industrial policy goals, ensure dom stability & greater intl influence
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Persuasive piece by @Noahpinion that central part of any deal with China should be an elimination of its joint-venture requirement, a key conduit for coerced tech transfer:
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
" The costs have been substantial and far reaching, the benefits narrow and ephemeral." From my @CSIS commentary, "A Fragile and Costly U.S.-China Trade Peace":
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
Amazing article in the supposedly uniformly nationalistic Global Times by Peking Univ Prof Wang Jisi defending high value to China of US-China cooperation. No matter what, US & China should avoid military conflict & maintain as many econ ties as possible.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
7 years
Excited that my new book was published today: "Global Governance and China: The Dragon’s Learning Curve":
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
China's recovery is well underway, while the US economy is still suffering. The lesson from China, S Korea, New Zealand, Taiwan, others is about sequencing: FIRST control the pandemic (& keep the economy from collapsing) & THEN full recovery will follow.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
Americans & Canadians have been isolated in their homes <50 days & many are facing immense hardship. But imagine if this extended to >500 days, plus you were in a tiny cell w/ strangers, had no access to family, news or lawyer & no clear prospect it would ever end (or end well).
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
4 years
Narrowly targeted visa restrictions on certain Chinese officials may make sense, but banning all Chinese CCP members, SOE execs & PLA members from the US would be, frankly, blindly dumb, dangerous & beyond self-defeating. We aren't in a state of war.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Stephen Roach effectively finds China guiltless in the current trade tensions. He ignores China’s massive industrial policies & predatory practices that many of China’s own economists see hurt China, the US & others. @ProSyn
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Another @financialtimes article worried about the inevitability of decoupling. Yes, there is very good reason to be worried, but let's remember: so far the amount of decoupling has been quite limited.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
3 years
My skeptical take on China's economic opportunities in Afghanistan, just out in @ForeignPolicy . Bottomline: The economic, political, and strategic contexts all work against Beijing turning Afghanistan into a client state.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
3 years
Beijing's hostage diplomacy gambit backfired big time. Exhibit A: Beijing blinked first and accepted conditions for a deal that it had long objected to. But there's much, much more that went wrong for China. Read my @CSISCBE analysis.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Treasury Dept's designation of China as a currency manipulator ignores their own 3-part test that yielded a different verdict in May and would still show China only meets 1 of the criteria, a large bilateral trade surplus.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
3 years
No one should take this seriously. As much as I'd like to see CP-TPP membership push China to liberalize, reduce favoritism for SOEs, raise labor standards & go green, China is going in the opposite direction & CP-TPP membership wouldn't change that.
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
Very first words out of the @StateDept spokesperson in today's on-the-record press briefing were on Xinjiang. The Trump administration could not be telegraphing any more clearly than this that sanctions are coming soon. .
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
6 months
This is the 1st time ever a top Chinese official has first reported China's annual growth rate at an int'l meeting. This act & China's large delegation to Davos is meant to reinforce their message that China is open for business. via @bpolitics
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
3 years
Excellent explanation by @michaelxpettis on why Chinese regulators find themselves between a rock and a hard place. via @CarnegieEndow
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
6 years
DC think tanks have great trade experts -- @CSIS 's Bill Reinsch, PIIE's @ChadBown , Cato's @dikenson & CFR's Ted Alden -- but their defenses of free trade can't hold a candle to that by @LastWeekTonight 's John Oliver: . Absolutely hilarious & informative!
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
3 years
China's leading America watchers had a virtual conference on Biden's 1-yr anniversary. No full consensus, but 3 standout points: 1) Biden has restored regular governance to DC, but he's politically quite weak; (1/x)
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@KennedyCSIS
Scott Kennedy
5 years
"Pardon me if I don’t pop champagne, but aside from a cessation of continued escalation, there is not much worth cheering." From my just published @CSIS commentary, "A Fragile and Costly U.S.-China Trade Peace":
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