LTG
@Ikkenospes
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Write about quality compounders on: - Part of the StockUp team. 15% off a Finchat-sub:
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Joined June 2013
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Happy friday!
I've just posted a new article on two swedish industrials I believe are positioned to benefit from the secular trend of electrification. In this post I give an intro to $AQ.ST and $NCAB.ST, with an overview of their business model, management and valuation.
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There's a lot of noise around $EVO - strikes, black markets, war et.c. Let's remember what matters: People playing, and availability of EVO games.
The most important KPI of Evo is nrs. of employees, and tables. Lately $EVO have recruited heavily. What do you think happen next?
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I've written my first deep dive on a company! 🍾 $NORBT is one of my highest conviction holdings, a CAGR of 29% since IPO and to few people know about it
In the article I give a extensive look into Norbit, Q1 digest, competitive advantages, valuation and more!
Link👇
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$EVO Q2 didn’t not meet expectations (of analysts at least). However, is things as bad as mr. Market fears?
The activity level on EVO games are up 37% YoY. Operating cash flow is up 34% YoY. The free cash flow increased by around 16% according to my slightly hasty napkin math.
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$AQ looks like a potential opportunity coming up. Dedicated outsider-CEO, operates in a niche-within-niche, origins from the great ABB in Sweden, founder led and owned (40%) and positioned in the middle of several megatrends.
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I write about my portfolio tinkering and construction, introducing my 11 companies and main overarching themes. I have been overactive the last 6 months; I blame it on learning!
And why I think it doesnt make sense to own $TOI and $LMN.V if you don't own $CSU. Link in profile.
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To the english speaking user on Fintwit:
How to assess the risk of a russian invasion into Georgia? $EVO has 38.6% of all employes in a country in turmoil, balancing between revolution and possibly invasion. What do you guys think
@gnufs
@wolfofharcourt
@FundasyInvestor
?
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Now we know what's going to happen to the FCF generated by these new employees: Share buybacks and dividends.
I expect around 50% of current market cap to be returned to shareholders within the next 3-4 years. IMO, $EVO is one of the best opportunities in the market currently.
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Opened a position in $RMS today. Imo the perfect fit for my strategy, and a company I admire.
This 180-year old company continues to be the one to beat in luxury fashion. A Birkin-bag can be used as an inflation hedge, and resale price is higher than store price. (source 2016)
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Players playing Evolution games leads to higher cash flow to the company. Tables and activity is the most important metrics and follow each other closely:
As shown above, OCF +34% YoY, activity is up 37%. This is what matters. Hope long term shareholders seized the opportunity.
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$Norbt to acquire 100% of the German company Innomar, a developer and producer of adjacent technology for mapping sub-sea surfaces in deep and shallow waters. Looks like a great fit, paid mostly in cash with some share payment for management.
Norbit describes the fit as such:
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I'm super stoked to share this post!
Check out the newest piece, co-written with
@olensrud
, on $PDX.
An impressive gaming publishing company with a 5yr average ROIC of 31%, cash pile of over 1bln SEK and a 15% revenue CAGR last 5 years despite some big launch failures lately.
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My July insights newsletter is out there for everyone to read!
I go through my portfolios quarterly results, share some excellent pieces on the companies, and, as usual, cover portfolio news and great stuff I've read and listened to. $EVO $ORLY $KNSL $NORBT $MELI
Link in bio 👇
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$SL.MI is now my fourth biggest position. A company with such a strong balance sheet, broad offering of recession proof products and aligned owner operator shouldn't be trading at these valuations. Great company available at a great price. Read this excellent summary of H1👇
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Just sent out the August edition of my scribblings on investing.
Read it to get a summary of my thoughts on $NORBT Q2, $ATD and $DNP news (even though I don't own shares), and some great tips for articles and podcasts to listen to!
Find it in my profile🧐
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@investwithwes1
@ObscurValuation
Well, FCF metric is highly affected by the fact that they reinvest all free cash flow - you’re judging a company with high levels of growth CAPEX and looking at FCF while not accounting for their incremental returns on investment and growth opportunity is not the best angle imo
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September has treated me well, despite barely having had time to write. I've bought some stuff, I've sold some stuff, I've written about this stuff.
Read about portfolio news, and get some great content tips via my profile.
Tickers discussed: $PDX, $SL.MI, $AQ, $RMS
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Great article summarising important aspects of serial acquirers - a lot of interesting companies mentioned 🙌 $CSU $HEI $TVK $TOI.V
Just explored 24 unique Serial Acquirers. If aftermarket airplane parts, bowling operator software and bulk fuel tanks catch your interest, this one is for you ;)
Link to the full write-up in my bio!
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LTG has been a project of mine for some months now. It's really exciting to see many people wanting to read my ramblings, and I'm very thankful to all the talented people who've recommended my blog to their own readers. It's really exciting to see that I have a global audience:
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@ObscurValuation
Evolution AB, O’Reilly Automotive or Alimentation Couche Tard are candidates. I just have to make sure to retire as early as possible for the last two 😎
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Small achievement, but an achievement nonetheless! Just passed my first 100 subscribers - thanks to everyone who's read my ramblings so far, I hope I've added value to your investment journeys so far!
Tomorrow I'll ship my first monthly "Interesting insights" - stay tuned! 🤩
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Would recommend everyone to try out the fabolous offerings of
@stonkmetal
- I've learned a lot from reading his work these last months!
There's still time to check out my newsletter for free in case you're interested 👀
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Happy to join
@HanFarStockUp
&
@k_astorp
as a part of the StockUp team - we'll all continue to create quality content about rational and quality oriented investing🙌
Super stoked to see what we can do together 👏
StockUp utvider teamet og klatrer opp på listene!
Kenneth og jeg utvider teamet vårt og henter en skribent fra egne rekker, nemlig
@Ikkenospes
.
LTG aka Boglestad har vært i Staben på Discord en stund så vi kjenner han godt. Han er en Hardcore-StockUp'er, og som oss er fan av
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Luck is all you need. I started buying Paradox in early May and started writing the below piece with
@olensrud
around the same time. The stock is up round 40% from summer troughs.🎲
$PDX remains a great company with a bright future ahead of it in my opinion. Happy shareholder⚔️
I'm super stoked to share this post!
Check out the newest piece, co-written with
@olensrud
, on $PDX.
An impressive gaming publishing company with a 5yr average ROIC of 31%, cash pile of over 1bln SEK and a 15% revenue CAGR last 5 years despite some big launch failures lately.
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@89Olle
@Hjarsta
@AbcpokerBI
Av spillene du diskuterer er ingen innenfor kjernespillene, PA regnes som en del av de største titlene, men kjernespillene er CS, HoI, EU, CK, AoW og til en viss grad Vic3 ifølge selskapet selv. Av disse er det bare 2 som har fått sequels siste 10 årene.
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@BigLeagueBI
Ikke finsk men har eid Valm. Gode muligheter for å øke i mer lønnsomme og mindre sykliske segmenter i automatisering og services. Verdensledende pick and shovel play på rett side av gode trender som fornybar osv, nøktern og solid ledelse. Makro headwind, lav vekst i nær tid 🤷♂️
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@AbcpokerBI
Evolution er ikke en organisasjon på den måten. Dette handler om NGOs og er en lov som skal kartlegge organisasjoner som påvirker politikken med hensikt om å gjøre det vanskeligere å påvirke politikken i retning EU og slå ned på kritikere av regjeringen...
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And, in 22-23, management highlighted this when they described their biggest challenge as having enough people and tables to meet the demand for $EVOs games. Now they've taken steps to meet this demand, and I'm sure we'll see great effects going forward.
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@NordnetMads
Hei! 👋Jeg er en fornøyd kunde hos dere i Nordnet, og skriver om selskaper som jeg mener kan gi langsiktig god avkastning. Dessverre skjer det ofte at jeg finner caser som ikke er tilgjengelig hos dere. Jeg sliter med å skjønne hvorfor dere har så få markeder?
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Hard to put it any better. $KNSL continues to impress, E&S market seems to remain in a hard market and Kinsale continues to deliver best in class results from their best in class business. 👌
Kinsale is a 25 bagger in 8 years and is still growing 30% py...
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It's genuinely surprising how close in valuation the proven best in class ($CSU) company can be to other (great) companies with a shorter track record.
Can't help but think that the market underestimates the growth runway for $CSU in search of the shiny new toy.
I recently did some quick math (5-year numbers) on some top serial acquirers I could think of. Personally, $CSU stands out as the most attractive option to me. Surprisingly close on EV/FCF to.
Would like to hear others thoughts here to.
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God og grundig analyse av Norbits connectivity segment som tar for seg en rekke mindre kjente nyanser. Must read for alle $NORBT investorer 👏
Vil dele et prosjekt jeg har jobbet med en god stund nå! Det er en dypdykk analyse om det norske børsnoterte selskapet $NORBT, med fokus på deres Connectivity segment. NORBIT har over lang tid bygget stein på stein, og er i min mening et av de bedre selskapene på Oslo Børs.
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Evolution is still the absolute leader in online live casino, they have 8/10 of the most popular games and are the gold standard of online casinos.
They have shown their ability to capture large parts of the online gambling market, projected to grow to $184bln by 2032.
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I'm sure most of my followers and readers have subscribed or followed me for insight into lesser known compounders.
I have no respect for this, and have started on a 5-part series on my thinking on investing. I'm (a little bit) sorry.
Read the first part now!
🔗 in profile
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@AbcpokerBI
Antidemokratisk, men med mindre det blir krig eller revolusjon skal ikke dette påvirke Evolution.
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$PDX Status:
Some technical mumbo jumbo I don't really know (double bottom, or maybe higher lows)? ✅
Bad news no longer make share price fall ✅
Primary insiders buying✅
Price target increases (SEB upped target to 230 from 210, maintaining buy)✅
Big game reveals⌛️
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@Quality_stocksA
Another interesting aspect of the acquistion is the price paid: They paid 6.1 EV/EBIT for Innomar, close to half of Norbits share price which is valued at around 12-13 EV/EBIT. An excellent strategic fit which they managed to buy for half of their own pricing. Impressive! 👏
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$PDX got initial coverage from Barclays at underweight and target price of 130 SEK. The pessimism from Barclays is founded in that they suspect there will be further postponing of games, negatively affecting trust towards Paradox's ability to launch games.
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@FelTrades
Jeg er enig. Vanskelig å se for seg at ordreveksten 22-23 var en anomali med ca. 5-års sell cycle. Long sell cycle betyr antakelig at vi kun har sett starten på en snøball som er på vei ned en lang nedoverbakke. Jeg er biased, 7.5% av port i $cambi. 🫡
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Here you can see a video about Saildrone and Norbit. Amazing news for my favourite small cap $NORBT 👌
Check out the link in my profile if you want to read more about this reasonably valued supplier of world class tech 🛥️
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Evolution finally took an active stance on how to return capital to shareholders. They will uphold dividends, but prioritise share buybacks going forward. Great news in my opinion.
When hiring normalise (mngmt projects H2 to have lower hiring) and the new tax is absorbed…
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So
@NordnetNO
just achieved a milestone of 2 million customers! Congratulations!
They are celebrating by removing fees for their most popular stocks in each of their covered markets.
However, popularity is a bad measure in the stock market. I took a look at the list🧵👇
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@rusholmecapital
I agree - especially in the case of Evo where investors tend to tell everyone with an opposing view that they are wrong (I’ve been guilty of this myself).
However, fintwit is a rather marginal group. There’s a lot of market participants, most are not on this platform.
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Just posted my first monthly Interesting insights - this is my monthly summary of interesting investing content that I consume during a month! 🤓
I noticed that I listen to a lot of the same podcasts, so maybe this is the time to ask: Whats your favorite investing pod? 🎧
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@lundeen_ne
Its just several websites selling snus. Small swedish niche company on a small swedish exchange with a ton of american attention driving the share price up because they think there's no-one that can unseat them.
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Summer is here & June newsletter is out! In it I summarise $ATD earnings, provide some colour on $NORBT latest acquisition and share content I’ve been reading and listening to in June. Spoiler alert: a lot of $NTDOY content 😌
Happy summer to all my readers 🤩
🔗 in bio 👇
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@ToffCap
Some to follow is: Norbit (steady growth, making some good acq.), Paradox Interactive (punished for out of core launches), Beerenberg (cheap well drilling), SanLorenzo (currently at close to ATL valuation while growing steadily - pos multiple exp and stable earnings growth).
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Om noen sa at man kunne kjøpe $EVO, $NIBE og $PDX på dagens prising for noen år siden ville alle flirt. Nå er det få som ruser inn for å kjøpe aksjer (nvm alle på fintwit kjøper $EVO om dagen). Jeg har kjøpt i alle tre den siste perioden. 😎 Time will show.
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@DavidDiranko
Not to shabby of a deal. The cherry on top is that it fits right into the core offering of Norbit, and it might lead to some excellent growth numbers in the sonar segment going forward. That’s a great place to add strength after Q1s sub-optimal result👌
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Skriver om $EVO i min siste artikkel på Learning to Grow. Evolution AB er et fantastisk selskap, men de siste tre årene har aksjekursen vært langt fra fantastisk. Hvorfor det?
Er det Vladimir Putin? Er det en Evil Discount? Er det teknisk mumbo jumbo? Lenke under 👇
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@ramahluwalia
My man, you gotta study luxury industry a bit. Start with understanding the difference between aspirational luxury and true luxury 🤝
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@CompTortoise
Some nordic companies worth a look:
Medistim
Norbit
Borregaard
Paradox
Biogaia
Pandora
Bahnhoff
But a lot of these are maybe a bit to young to have proven their slow-and-steady approach 👏
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I'm stoked to take the Learning to Grow project forward. Big thanks to all who have been sources of inspiration and motivation, particularly
@CompTortoise
,
@olensrud
,
@HanFarStockUp
and
@k_astorp
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@IslanderInvests
@BrianFeroldi
@Brian_Stoffel_
@long_equity
@TheLongInvest
@jimcramer
@DivesTech
@ParrotStock
@saxena_puru
@LaMonicaBuzz
@DataDInvesting
@SteadyCompound
@Jas0nYu
@NIONenad
@ftr_investors
@wolfofharcourt
@joecarlsonshow
You didn’t ask for my opinion, but I’ll give it anyway:
ARM
SE
V
GOOGL
AMZN
EM etf
Replace NVDA and AMD with KLAC
Get in MELI for some LATAM exposure.
🤷♂️
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@AL_Valuation
Fin oversikt, takk! Lamplighters league og Millenia er triste syn. Men CS 1 og 2 er stabile tall.
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$NORBT awarded with another substantial order from a new customer at 75mln nok, adding to the expect revenue of q4 this year.
Few details on who the customer is, but it's an international order and probably linked to critical underwater infrastructure.
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@Stock_Opine
@gnufs
@wolfofharcourt
@FundasyInvestor
Honestly, who knows? It’s definitely an actual possibility but impossible to say. It depends on if the protest escalate and if there’s broad appeals/actions to ensure a pro-NATO/EU government I suppose.
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@Stock_Opine
$NORBT great execution on niche sonar and connectivity products with an exciting way to build new products. Stellar long-term potential imo.
$SL A diversified true luxury yacht maker with great working capital management, owner operator, and an unwarranted multiple compression.
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@berg_bernt
@HanFarStockUp
Takk Bernt, utrolig hyggelig at fagfolk som har peiling og jobber med dette blir med på diskusjonene og bidrar til å løfte fram hvordan man kan jobbe for å bli en bedre investor🙌
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Happy to say that I've become an affiliate of . This last year I've tested many stock research platforms, and for me,
@finchat_io
has been the best.
To kick things off, I want to use Finchat to have a quick look at one of my biggest holdings: SanLorenzo ⛵️
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@SivsPicks
Show us how many shares you have in each of these. If they are bound to 10x, how much leverage are you using to get this guaranteed great outcome????
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Fun to be included in this list of talented people 🙌 I purposely don't post my returns as I don't think focusing on shorter-term returns put me in the best position for long-term decision-making.
Anyway, have a scroll for new ideas and give
@joinyellowbrick
a follow.
Everyone is posting their Q3 returns and holdings, so I collected them all (30+).
Here are the stocks everyone is holding:
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@HerrKamrer
Antall spillere i EVO-lobbyen er stadig vekk på ATHs, EVO sier at de ikke ser en stor effekt av Georgia streiken, flere US-markets blir regulert, comps blir bedre og bedre, og selskapet har nesten aldri vært så billig. Men nå ser alle riskene. Tale as old as times.
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@SeekingWinners_
@npds87
And add in their low need for reinvestment, we should expect around 70-85% free cash flow returned to shareholders at around 10-15% growth and a multiple around 15 times earnings.
I gladly take around half of market cap returned to me in buybacks and divis next 5 years 🤝
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@10_ch_10
Kjøp en «bibliotekort» posisjon, veldig liten posisjon som hjelper med å følge selskapet tett og være investert samtidig som man motiveres til å lese og studere selskapet
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@AbcpokerBI
Ta en titt på AZO. Fantastisk defensivt selskap som reduserer utestående aksjer fortere enn noen andre med en ROIC over 45% og en P/E under 20.
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@Arkalos77
I'm not sure I have any edge, no informational, maybe some psychological, potentially something curiousity-wise, a bit contrarian and some patience. I try to keep learning and exploring, and find investing to be a way to compound both money and knowledge.
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@TomSmith839
10/10 - add in the fact that the numbers are hit by expanding their workforce so that they can serve more customers and grow faster in the future.
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@ReturnsJourney
Well thank the lord that Hermes actively works against using consultants and external graphic designers. Do not fuck with my horse and carriage:
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@wolfofharcourt
@gnufs
@FundasyInvestor
Indeed, that is my concern as well. They are thankfully expanding studio geography and greatly increasing headcount so I believe management is on the ball with this one.
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@Stock_Opine
@gnufs
@wolfofharcourt
@FundasyInvestor
Most likely. The question would be how long it would take to potentially replace 38% of the workforce and their largest studio 🤷♂️ But I agree, Evo should be able to absorb something like this.
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@AbcpokerBI
Vet ikke om jeg er enig i at den er i lådan 2 her. Alle fokuserer på CS2, ingen snakker om pipeline, man har glemt at PDX tjener mest på DLCs og selskapet blir oppfattet som et «vanlig» spillselskap som bare tjener penger på release. 🤷♂️
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@WarrenMungerz
@SorobanCount
Enig - husk også at det er en forskjell på organisasjon og på bedrift.
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@Th__Nielsen
Synes det ser ganske bra ut - solide selskaper! Har du sett noe på Gofore? Et selskap som dundrer på og leverer flotte tall over lang tid. 👌
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@evfcfaddict
One thing is biotech - this is the danger with small companies on small stock exchanges getting investor community hype or spotlighted by profiled investment writers.
Without commenting on the business itself, I see this in $HAYPP nowadays as well, with U.S. investors piling in.
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@DutchInvestors
Capitalizing on their status as a "famous" company through diverse podcasts and such. I guess it can be rationalized by the fact that Berkshire does these things as well? Not a fan of companies leaning into investor-hype personally.
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@WarrenMungerz
@hcapinvesting
Honestly, Georgia is most likely just the most eyebrow raising explanation for recent volatility. Evo is a high beta stock and the last three years there’s been plenty of stock price fuckery unrelated to company performance. It’s a good time to be a long term Evo shareholder imo.
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@HerrKamrer
dagens m.cap gjennom utbytter+tilbakekjøp. Mange er opptatt av hva som kommer til å skje: Marginer kan ikke fortsette på denne måten, børsen kan falle og Evo kan falle med. Hvorfor ikke fokusere på det vi kan vite: Kvaliteten til EVO CF og moat. Lett å høres smart ut i nedgang.
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@LionCubsFund
Cool! If you end up writing anything on Norbit I’d love to read it, and if you need some help on hard to reach information (I.e. Norwegian presentations et.c.), send me a DM. I also wrote a piece on the company, you can find the site in my bio 😊
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@gnufs
@wolfofharcourt
@FundasyInvestor
PS. I largely view this as macro and geopolitical noise, however I understand that the market wants a higher risk priced into the case with both the Putin risk and the gray/black market risks that bubble up every now and then.
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@Quality_stocksA
Having L'oreal and Moncler over SanLorenzo and TISG is waaaaaay off. I see kids walking around in Moncler clothes, they're super accesible and L'Oreal is everywhere (there's a bunch of L'Oreal shampoo in my mums shower)...
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@CoalemusGuy
@returnoncap
I'm not necessarily disagreeing here: But theoretically, shouldn't a (relative) big loss early be regarded as a huge loss due to the potential lost compounding over a long period of time?
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Great cash deployment is about finding smart ways of squeezing out as much return on investments from cash at hand.
$ATD buys back just below 1% of market cap at a 3% discount, boosting metrics and maximising the return on their cash.
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@Investmentideen
Norbit ASA is a potential 2x candidate. Small Norwegian Niche tech company that has tailwinds from ocean surveillance, defence sector, international mobility amongst others reasonably priced and with a long runway for growth. 👌
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@AbcpokerBI
Interessant
@AbcpokerBI
, som Evo-aksjonær hadde det vært spennende å hørt konkrete ting du finner risikabelt som du gjerne skulle visst mer om?
Er det risken hvorvidt marginalene kommer opp igjen eller avkastningstiden for «investeringssyklusen»? 😊
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@TheREALMADriD94
@gnufs
@wolfofharcourt
@FundasyInvestor
Georgia is pseudo-EU as well, but it seems reasonable to me that the Georgia hub serves a lot of the unregulated markets that have shown good growth lately. This creates a bit of a double risk in Georgia imo.
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@Quality_stocksA
Exclusivity is the very essence of luxury. Bernaud Arnault said it best himself: Luxury is the ordinary for the extraordinary, and the extraordinary for the ordinary.
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@Larryjamieson_
For sure, that's one approach: I prefer to undermanage IRRs to avoid overconfidence in what I can know about the future and let solid companies and mngmt surprise on the upside, I use downside movements to increase exposure to great cos while remaining rational to IRR potential.
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@Th__Nielsen
@Barong74026917
Takk for at du deler Thomas - selv synes jeg det er mye flott å si om Paradox, men de har hatt noen bommer i det siste. En viktig ting for meg er at ledelsen er tydelig i sin kommunikasjon, og det er få bortforklaringer å spore. Jeg har begynt å kjøpe litt på disse nivåene.
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Either through moving costs to operators and/or customers we will have a period where:
The company has record level of tables and employees
The comparisons are very favourable
The company has captured more market share in the U.S through m&a+new licenses
What’s important is:
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@HanFarStockUp
@CompTortoise
,
@Stock_Opine
,
@LionCubsFund
- All three would be excellent international guests. For ett svenskt wildcard:
@HerrKamrer
👌
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@ungaksje
Selv har jeg gått i retning stabile aksjetilbakekjøpere. Det fungerer basically litt som at du overlater utbyttereinvesteringene til selskapet selv, er skattefritt og bidrar til bedre EPS. Men: viktig å være obs på tilbakekjøp sett opp mot SBC.
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Really enjoyed this text by
@Ethan_Invests
- I tend to invest in high priced quality cos., but I always model in a future multiple compression to avoid setting myself up for disappointment and failure. If multiple compression + moderate projections =
above market IRR, I'm happy.
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Impressive technology from
@saildrone
and $NORBT, it’s good to see the world moving forward with technological solutions like these 👏
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