Ryan Lundeen
@lundeen_ne
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pie chart abolitionist
Nebraska, USA
Joined February 2024
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My plea to all of fintwit posting their portfolios: please stop with the pie charts.
A horizontal bar graph is a far superior method to portray that information.
Hope Rahul doesn’t mind me using him as an example. It’s platform wide.
@david_katunaric
Q2 2024 portfolio update: Another phenomenal quarter, thanks to $HIMS $TMDX $SE whose fundamentals are now much more reflected in their stock prices vs 6-9 months ago. My deep understanding of these biz’s dynamics and future growth/margins have paid off, and enabled me to make
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In 2023, $WBD generated $8.1 per share in cash.
$5.6 went towards capex (content + pp&e)
$2.4 towards debt
The stock is at $7.2
Net debt is $13.8
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Some numbers on $WBD primarily surrounding debt & NBA/TNT.
TL;DR version is assume $WBD loses NBA contract + assume that "FCF" declines 30% each year for the next 10 years, and $WBD still generates enough "FCF" to pay off all maturities due through 2041 (assuming no refinances).
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Thought about getting back in $RIG. Hasn’t gone anywhere in the year+ since I was last in. But upside today less than before imo, even though they crossed that $500k contract mark.
Doesn’t seem like the most attractive opportunity out there (plug $WBD)
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$BATS $BTI
FCF/Share + as % of revenue
—————
‘12: £1.93 | 25%
‘13: £2.02 | 25%
‘14: £1.70 | 23%
‘15: £2.27 | 32%
‘16: £2.16 | 28%
‘17: £2.22 | 23%
‘18: £4.16 | 39%
‘19: £3.64 | 32%
‘20: £4.04 | 36%
‘21: £4.00 | 36%
‘22: £4.35 | 36%
‘23: £4.60 | 38%
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Can we please get back to companies putting 10-15 years of financials in their AR
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The author of this book is currently selling some signed copies previously in storage in the printer's original packaging.
He saw the outrageous prices on Amazon a few months ago (almost $5k for a copy) and decided to sell some again after 38 years.
@Secrets4stocks
@45WallSt
My all-time favorite business book:
[Runnerup: The Prize or Ashes to Ashes]
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Here’s where I’m at:
Cash 35.6%
$WBD 25.6%
$TSLA (short) 13.7%
$MKO.V $GXS.V 8.2%
$BTI 5.8%
Compounder basket 3.1%
$OGI 2.4%
$VTSI 2.4%
$CRON 2.1%
$PM 1.1%
Might add 1% to $WBD every week it’s below $10 until I run out of cash.
If anyone has any good ideas drop me a line.
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@blondesnmoney
What’s there to hear? Collecting dividends, paying down debt and buying back shares. Not a cheerleading event. It’s a stock to snooze on.
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@7LukeHallard
I have one request
My plea to all of fintwit posting their portfolios: please stop with the pie charts.
A horizontal bar graph is a far superior method to portray that information.
Hope Rahul doesn’t mind me using him as an example. It’s platform wide.
@david_katunaric
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Is there anyone who doesn’t like $HAYPP and/or has decent bear case?
My first impression is like everyone else’s. Which, makes it seem like a no-brainer. And you know how I feel about no-brainers.
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BofA analyst’s idea of breaking up $WBD is so dumb it’s almost annoying the stock is up. Almost.
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@ZeroSumBond
They’ve said it’d be fine if he had sex with their wives. I honestly don’t think they care if he dumps on them. It’s for humanity.
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@dirtcheapstocks
@turtlebay_io
Also Teledyne options, commodities. And most importantly, leverage.
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Getting one good idea from this platform per year like $NLOP makes putting up with all the other stuff worth it. Literally.
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@WTIBull
$250+ oil was legitimately one of the dumbest things to ever hit the fintwit community.
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Never imaged I’d be one of those people but I spent the last few weeks building up a 8% gold position in $GXS.V $MKO.V
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@philoinvestor
Oh and just because you had a number of Warren Buffett quotes in your article, here’s another:
“Declining cash-flow businesses can be wonderful investments if they are bought at the right price.”
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🫡
The best part about this is it took him so long to block me after I posted 1 thing about him you know he doom scrolls his name to see what people say about him, blocking his way to an echo chamber of wannabe Buffett/Munger praise.
Pabrai is a grifter of the highest caliber.
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What if I told you the equity IV of $WBD increased ~14% today.
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I disagree with, “Don't think about per-share numbers.” I think that’s pretty stupid. It’s cool to pretend you’re the sole owner of a stock. But you’re not. So per share matters. Dilution etc.
But, he’s the Chinese Warren Buffett billionaire investor so who am I to argue.
Bruce Greenwald invited Li Lu to speak to his class on value investing.
The result is a 90 minute masterclass on how to be a value investor.
If you haven't watched the video, do it now.
If you have, it's worth re-watching.
Here is a list of my favorite quotes from Li Lu 👇
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38 years hot off the press
The author of this book is currently selling some signed copies previously in storage in the printer's original packaging.
He saw the outrageous prices on Amazon a few months ago (almost $5k for a copy) and decided to sell some again after 38 years.
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A college graduates first day on the job
(Sound on)
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Feeling cute, might delete later.
$BORR $DO $NE $RIG $SDRL $VAL
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$WBD isn’t without risk, but when no one in the market or industry likes it, the risks are usually priced in. The best time to buy something is when no one else wants it.
One thing I am confident of: leverage is not an issue. People saying that haven’t looked.
See you at $5 🫡
$WBD is the worst S&P 500 stock of the last 10 years losing -80.71%. See list here 👇
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@dirtcheapstocks
Especially locally. There was a pair of brothers in Omaha, both doctors. Put all their discretionary income into Berkshire stock every year from very early on. Never showed up on a Forbes list but probably could’ve. But also like so many others who benefited, gave it away.
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I put all this out because I’ve seen a ton of nonsense around $WBD either not being able to cover their debt, someone even suggesting they’re a zero… $FUBO may be a zero. But I don’t see how $WBD.
Studio segment did Barbie. They did Dune series. This company is not a trash can.
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$WBD breakup rumor breaking hearts
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Just because an asset is critical to society, doesn’t mean it isn’t a terminal zero for equity holders. In commodities that’s almost always the case
There’s profits to be had. But understand the limits & don’t get caught up in romanticized narratives. They’re shitco’s on a clock
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Debt that they paid off was (in table below) mainly 2047-55 debt.
Long story short, buying at a discount they were able to lower gross leverage. So, looks like progress being made.
But no real cash flow benefit, especially with new debt maturing sooner.
Seems more for show.
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$BATS $BTI adding another board member to $OGI
Opening qualification, “In his role at BAT, Craig has contributed to a range of significant projects, including BAT’s USD $49 billion merger with Reynolds American Inc.”
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The reason I make the $RIG investment/speculation point is b/c of Nick Radical types of people.
Nothing against him personally. Had several good DM talks with him. He led me to $VNO
But he 100% romanticizes his ideas & people tended to eat it up, to their ultimate detriment imo
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Bankruptcy sure does have a funny way of revealing itself.
$VNO
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@FoamOnTheRunway
@ICBarrett
Even though in 04-09 cycle they generated $16B OCF, it basically all went to creditors and new builds (and some buybacks which isn’t any better). So your only chance of making money is trading the stock.
Absolutely shareholder return policy changes valuation.
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If Zaslav pays $15B for CBS, my $WBD equity is fuqt
When a SOTP analysis says that $PARA is worth $40, but the stock is trading at $10, perhaps there is a problem with the analysis
There is so much wrong with this...
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Ari Gold is one of the greatest characters in the history of television
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Pretend $RIG could capture the following average day rates, along with 7.3k operating days and the following EBITDA margins:
2024: $420k | 40%
2025: $460k | 40%
2026: $500k | 52%
2027: $575k | 54%
2028: $660 | 58%
2029: $760k | 60%
2030: $875k | 64%
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@retireearlyguy
The problem is their main source of cash is declining (networks). So depends on pace of decline and if/when there’s any bottom.
But debt isn’t a problem. FCF could decline 35% per year for 10 years and still handle the debt pay down.
DTC international rollout just started.
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I’ve detested $BOC for a while. Started when I read one of their letters. Was solidified when I went to their annual meeting. The abrasive attempt to develop a ‘Warren & Charlie’ reputation was too cringe.
This $BOC announcement is truly awful
Grifting at its finest by using association with Warren and then stepping down and selling all your shares to the Company
And toss in a nice $7.3mm control premium while you are at it
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Don’t know who, but someone carved my dad’s name into a local bar shortly after he passed away in ‘01. Recently painted over but still partially legible.
By reputation, he was a wild one and a hell of a good time.
Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there, past and present.
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I estimate ~$11B cumulative FCF 2024-30. 70% of that FCF doesn’t happen until 2028-30
They’d have to refinance 25% of their 2025-26 maturities, 15% of 2027 and then they’d be fine
That bakes in reduced int. exp. as debt is paid down and minimal capex (no new builds) of $400m/yr
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People talk about Zaslav being a failure over a merger that took place just 2yrs ago. Was poorly timed but has more to do w/ industry headwinds than actual CEO (he’s not in charge of $PARA).
They never talk about the 14yrs before that Zaslav grew Discovery’s worth at 11%.
$WBD
@banana_capital_
You have that mountain of debt and a CEO who thus far has been all hat and no cattle--a dismal failure.
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I’ll be selling at least half of my $WBD this morning. At current price it’ll be ~8% gain
Thinking is
1) I’m irresponsibly overweighted in it
2) I don’t believe the news, which
a) if it is true, not sure I want to own it and
b) if it’s not, I’d expect the price to come back down
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Seems like best hope for profits here is basically trading sardines before the next down leg of the cycle
If that’s the approach, historical multiples during the bull cycle put $RIG at $9-18/share.
I’m not opposed to sardines, but $WBD is mine.
Anyway, Sunday night ramble /end
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So the $WBD debt buyback seems more like an optical illusion than value added transaction.
I’d assumed when they did it, it’d be funded with short term debt (given sporadic nature of cash flow timing of business) but ultimately paid with cash flow / cash on hand
However…
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@ICBarrett
@Ultradeep3
Good comments. We’ll see what happens. If rates keep going up, RIG will be a good trade. But not much “intrinsic/terminal value” imo.
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I was unaware $SEG is selling their assets.
Why else would everyone be throwing around SOTP valuations.
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More time later tonight but initial $WBD reaction is par for course
TTM Rev | EBITDA
Studio: -1.1% | -5.5%
Networks: -2.3% | -1.9%
DTC: -1.6% | -75% (nm)
Subs * ARPU up 6%
Max int’l rollout didn’t start til end of May so next Q first full
2Q (per share)
OCF: $1.65
Capex: $1.56
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Price drives narrative (and analyst ratings) every single time.
$VNO BMO upgrades VNO. Prime Manhattan retail has fully recovered to 2019 valuation. BMO believes NYU will take over 700 Broadway (META leaving).
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When the results are so bad you have nothing to do but try the the right-to-left trick
$EAF
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If you think something is a no-brainer, 99/100 the no-brainer is you.
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I don’t believe it. It goes against 1) logic, 2) everything Zaslav had talked about and signaled - including last week - about wanting further consolidation.
$WBD
Warner Bros Discovery $WBD is exploring options to split its streaming and studio businesses from its legacy TV networks, per FT.
As per report, CEO David Zaslav is considering asset sales or forming a new company with Warner Bros and Max streaming service.
The group's debt,
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@TheSeeqer
@FoamOnTheRunway
@ICBarrett
Agreed. I always enjoy that. And have no feelings one way or the other really. Wasn’t trying to be provocative. Just shared my thoughts after looking at it again.
I traded it last year for ~50% gain and then went to $NOL.OL for another 25%. No problem with trading a sardine.
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Correction: three
$PARA
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Two ways to approach the market
1. You est. what something is worth to you - in which case you shouldn’t care what market prices it at
or
2. You guess what something will be worth to others & when - in which case it’s pointless to complain if the market doesn’t agree with you
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@bentan__
Would Visa, Schwab, BlackRock and MSCI have become what they are today if they’d stayed under banks umbrella, though?
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My Robinhood account I funded on June 24, 2024 is up approximately 85,000%*
Here’s 10 things I’ve learned on my path to build generational wealth to have my money work for me, not me work for money
👉🧵
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I got several messages about me selling $WBD
First off, I believe in thoughtful opinions loosely held. I try not to get attached. It’s why I like liquid positions. If I change my mind, the thesis or odds change etc, I don’t stick around.
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@FoamOnTheRunway
@ICBarrett
Even Buffett said a business where you control the cash flow is worth more than a business where you don’t. $OET is the gold standard for how to play a commodity business cycle.
They told you from the start they’re playing a cycle. They got some ships, made profits, paid it all
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Why is nobody talking about the fact we found the Eye of Sauron on Venus in 1993?
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Tonight’s slightly interesting/totally useless info
$PG same auditor since 1890 (Deloitte & Touche)
$GM Deloitte & Touche 1918
$JNJ PricewaterhouseCoopers “at least” 1920
$KO Ernst & Young 1921
$DIS PricewaterhouseCoopers 1938
$GE KPMG 1909-2020, Deloitte & Touche present
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My 3yr old pronounces ‘tornado’ as “tomato”
So our storm a couple nights ago, “Are those the tomato sirens?”
“Yep (given up trying to correct it), and what do they tell us?”
“That there’s a tomato in the sky.”
Way he says it melts my heart every time.
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@returnoncap
I’d have to find it but a year or so ago he talked about banks and his comment suggested the only reason he kept holding $BAC while he sold every other bank was because of his ‘promise’ to them during GFC when he made the original deal.
But…then still a surprise he’s selling ha
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$OGI with -$1m EBITDA down from $5m last year.
Most shocking is that it was ever a $30 stock 5 years ago or $20 stock 3 years ago.
But, kudos for being a market share leader.
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Took a swipe at $VTSI today
Hard to estimate where the business goes but low risk imo
• Net cash position
• Only debt is a mortgage
• ⅓ of total liabilities is deferred revenue
• High ROTA
• Profitable, recurring revenue (subscriptions)
• serves necessary purpose
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@xianren88338098
@retireearlyguy
You have networks headwinds, but deleveraging + DTC tailwinds and studio mystery card.
Interest expense reduction from deleveraging is big. From their most recent tender they increased ‘FCF’ $176m if I’m remembering right
Leveraged yield is attractive imo. Like RE, ROA is bad
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@CoronaTurd
@banana_capital_
@buckorama1
The net income line is going to tell you next to nothing about their ability to generate cash flow.
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@PedroLamento
@mel_Anconia
@FMetard
Look I’m gonna be honest with you. I don’t have the slightest clue who/what Anna is. I feel like I jumped into the middle of a conversation I know nothing about. Only it happened in the comment section of my post. So I’m just running with it. Otc comment only further confounds me
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My son’s artwork at preschool yesterday. I think he’s a pragmatist.
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So maybe half your equity investment gets returned to you via buybacks or dividends if you held to 2030?
Bottom line is, these seem like fairly aggressive assumptions to me IMO. And what is this worth to the market?
I’m not shitting on $RIG bulls. I don’t think RIG is going BK.
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Anyways, enough shit posting for the day.
Hopefully, in the next few days I’ll have a new idea put together to share.
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Everyone complains about Zaslav’s comp.
$NFLX co-CEOs
‘23: $3m + $2.9m salaries
‘22: $20m + $16m salaries
‘21: $20m + 12m salaries
$PARA Bakish $3.1m/yr salary
$WBD Zaslav $3m/yr salary
Only thing that sets Zaslav apart is the $200m options..which have strikes of $27-43/share
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Sato from Tokyo Vice in Megan thee Stallion’s ‘Mamushi’ music video
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@Inves2grow
He did write that article in a newspaper, “The Security I Like Best” when he was young
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Started a small position in $TLRY
Not something I’m gonna trade. I like the alcohol angle.
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@FoamOnTheRunway
@ICBarrett
That’s the problem. Not much imo, if that cash gets reinvested in new builds which inevitably leads to the next leg down cycle. While not factored into my thread, I do assume that’s where most profit will go
Not to say that kind of FCF wouldn’t bid up the stock price temporarily
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Adios General Custer
A Hill I will Die On:
Real estate > stocks
It’s not even close.
Seeing all of these stock related posts on my feed shows me that most people don’t get this.
The extremely wealthy people understand this.
Nothing else gives you appreciation, cash flow, tax benefits, and
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@Meta_2077
@Max
It is disappointing. Really enjoyed the show. But it was only planned for 2 seasons, with an open ending if they wanted to pursue a 3rd . But closed out the main storyline at the end of season 2.
I didn’t realize it was based on a real Jake Adelstein. Go read the memoir ha!
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@valuedrift
It’s almost like everyone in the universe hating it while no one actually looked at the debt caused it to be mispriced.
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@DarkfireCapital
@turtlebay_io
@invertedfragil1
That’s so funny. We should pool our resources and form a SPV to purchase those claims. They compound at 6% until setttled (if ever).
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@PedroLamento
@david_katunaric
For the record, it’s not no reason. It’s a petty reason. I like David. I like the little study thing. And I don’t give a fuck about Luke.
Don’t tell people to leave fintwit if they don’t like popular ideas and trash talk other stocks but get salty when it’s dished back.
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@WTIBull
Talks down about gold for not being a productive asset then goes and corners the silver market
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Unlike offshore drilling, $WBD should immediately initiate a buyback. Absurd valuation. Plenty of cash flow to service debt/pay maturities and retire 5% s/o per year with FCF to spare.
Unfortunately, I think mgmt is more focused on deleveraging to be ready to acquire something.
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“Heads I win; tails I don’t lose much.”
Tails:
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@yellowman98
@nmtuan_14
@FoamOnTheRunway
@ICBarrett
All that matters if you’re putting on a trade in a commodity biz is
1) leverage
2) underlying (rates)
3) exposure
If the underlying is going up, the company isn’t going bankrupt, & has appropriate exposure (contracts rolling etc), that’s the trade. That’s what’ll drive the stock
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It is fun, humbling and frustrating to go through old back-of-the-envelope calculations on what you thought stocks were worth 2-4 years ago and compare to today.
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High level, $WBD has $44B of LT debt (fixed rate) with a current (as of Dec. 31, 2023) annual interest expense of $2B
50% matures within 10yrs
11% in 20yrs
7% in 23-25yrs
27% in 26-38yrs
with remainder 5% spread out in between
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@Alpaca_Capital
I’m old enough to remember when no one wanted to be in $OET and/or tankers because containers was the hot place to be. How the tides turn.
The contracts with Koch everyone hated. What a ride. $OET has played this cycle beautifully (and with a lot of help from lady luck).
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Finally, it’s worth reiterating I view $WBD as a mispriced bet.
People like
@MasaSonCap
are probably right about it. But I think the odds of a better outcome is mispriced and that’s what I’m betting on. Not that it’s a sure thing.
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