Ultradeep
@Ultradeep3
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@Jaredtnelson
@austinramzy
Highly unlikely to die from omicron but you might from starvation…zero covidian hierarchy of priorities
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@the_brumby
@contrarian4data
The videos on Twitter of people in China literally collapsing on the street spawned a thousand lockdowns. Look at those same videos now (most have been purged) and they are comical…
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I am here for it $RIG $NE $VAL
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#offshore
deepwater drilling - look back at the previous cycle peak/near peak (late 2013) $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL 1/10
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$RIG Entire non-stacked drillship fleet now under contract post today’s KG2 contract announcement (Orion contract announced in Dec ‘22)
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$RIG fresh deck out including 2024 liquidity bridge. Unfortunately for the narrow pathers It does appear as though the enterprise survives for at least another year and shockingly I detect a hint of free cash flow.
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Unsurprisingly $VAL will be responsible for a likely mid-cycle correction $OIH $RIG $NE
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Definitely appears as though there will be no use for $RIG HE semi-subs in the UK if there is no immediate demand in Norway. Seems like
@Josh_Young_1
was right. Stack them all & pre-emptively for Chap 11.
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It does appear as though this long-cycle train is about to be derailed…
#offshore
$FTI $OIH $SLB $RIG $NE $VAL
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$RIG kept this exclusive partnership agreement on the down low
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#offshore
driller valuations. Place your bets (mine were placed ~2 years ago) $RIG $VAL $NE $DO $SDRL
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Did not think I would need to do this again but I see a lot of “missed” earnings commentary
$RIG 4Q reported v guidance ($mm)
Rev efficiency: 98% /96.5%
Adj contract rev: 625 / 600
Opex: 423 / 440
G&A: 55 / 54
Adjusted EBITDA: 147 / 106
$RIG 3Q solid earnings beat (reported/guidance)
Adj contract rev: 683/670
Opex: 398/427
G&A: 40/40
Implied adj EBITDA: 245/203
Earnings call color drives the stock but I see a lot “MISSED” commentary out there so a clarification in order
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$RIG - scenes from prior upcycles: “In 4 of our 7 major markets, utilization rates now stand at 100% for rigs we actively market. These areas cover Brazil, which is featured in this edition of Offshore Frontiers, Southeast Asia, Norway and the U.S. GOM.”
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$500k+ dayrate for Hercules (HE rig owned by SFL but managed by Odfjell Drilling) $SDRL $ODL.OL $RIG
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Contingently you are here with the newbuild order book at zero $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL
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$RIG bunch of new contracts/disclosed options exercised. $488mm added to backlog
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Wen cold-stacked rig bailout? We need to protect all stakeholders from the harsh forces of systemic economic risk $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL
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@mg10012
@contrarian8888
$RIG equity is largely the same trade as $OXY @ $10 or $BTU in low single digits with the key difference being that the company operates under long-term, high-margin contracts such that cash flow is not entirely dependent on a commodity price level but influenced by it…
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$RIG all secured bonds most recent prints (1mm+ trade size)
Sentry 5.375% May ‘23 $99.5
Guardian 5.875% Jan ‘24 $97.5
Phoenix 7.75% Oct ‘24 $99.5
Proteus 6.25% Dec ‘24 $98.25
Pontus 6.125% Aug ‘25 $96.5
Poseidon 6.875% Feb ‘27 $96.75
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Pure play gloater bois preparing for the core of the cycle $RIG
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Imagine not being long the equity of the OSD with the highest balance sheet leverage and most uncontracted rigs in the early/mid innings of an energy supercycle where the Central Bank of Oil is managing supply to encourage investment in long-cycle projects $OIH $RIG
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$BTU What?! “Europe is so short of natural gas that the continent - usually seen as the poster child for the global fight against emissions - is turning to coal to meet electricity demand that is now back to pre-pandemic levels.”
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$RIG 2Q EBITDA beat ($237mm v low $200mm est) on higher rev eff (97.2% v 96.5% guide) partially offset by opex (new contracts). Contract drilling rev up 12% sequentially (annualized runrate $2.9bn). We are just getting started. Don’t be the “why is the stock down in AH?” guy
Not that it matters but expect $RIG 2Q EBITDA ~low $200mm area (flattish to 1Q) despite 10% sequential revenue increase due to increased O&M expenses related to KG2/Orion contracts. Earnings Monday post close. Call Tues AM.
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$RIG 3Q report: For some strange reason there is no mention of the 2 rigs that have been “put back” to the company which will trigger events of default across the debt stack necessitating a massive equity raise or Chap 11 filing. I would think that would be a disclosable item.
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$OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $PGS 70 page chart book out today on global oil services. My top slide..
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$RIG new IR deck out. No major changes v Sept presentation but fresh bullet on investment thesis slide + recent job postings = consilience on upcoming reactivations/upgrades
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$OIH $RIG $NE $VAL Just a minor 5x increase in the $RIG price target 🤡
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$VAL DS-12 dayrate fixture: $425k including mobilization w/BP in Egypt (320d contract duration)
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$OIH $RIG $NE $VAL Please do not @ me with comments about real vs nominal capital spending (I do not care)
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I don’t know when things will turn but there will be signs along the way… $RIG $NE $VAL $SDRL
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$RIG Note that as the equity moves higher the “skeptics” (w/no position) will emerge with “hunches” or hit pieces (eg JY et al). These will be the same people that will later post 1/100 🧵’s discussing exactly how the company should distribute its free cash flow.
Too many of you like $RIG & that makes me more uncomfortable than the balance sheet... Which is saying something
I have this bad feeling about the situation that I can't shake
(No offense)
Good luck.
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$OIH $RIG $NE $VAL $BORR Marketed utilisation of 6th-8th generation assets is already at 97%. We also expect to see further long-term deals secured for semisubs, especially within the 6th-generation HE segment, where marketed utilisation is now at 100%
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When (not if) $RIG trades up to $15 I will be acquiring these sick threads on ebay to celebrate
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Energy/commodity trade is so crowded that retail is not involved
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If you are a long-cycle investor and are disappointed with the OPEC (Saudi) announcement and (Sunday night) oil futures price action you are probably not a long-cycle investor $XLE $OIH $SLB $RIG
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All that’s left on my timeline: macro doomers and energy investors…
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$RIG reactivation cost estimates (per rig) / commentary across time & space
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$SDRL acquiring Aquadrill. Likely a catalyst for further consolidation. Vantage & $DO obvious candidates. Control of the global DW floater fleet getting tighter with obvious (+) implications for the industry $OIH $RIG $NE $VAL
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Seems like just yesterday that $RIG was minutes away from a restructuring (at least that is what I heard in the DMs)
$RIG Moody’s upgrade to Caa1 from Caa3 “reflects sustained oil price strength that has improved offshore fundamentals and higher utilization of equipment leading to higher day rates for offshore drilling rigs, improving the company's cash flow and reducing its default risk.“
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Get woke! “It now appears that the world has yet to even meet the peak of demand for the least environmentally friendly fuel of all, coal.”
#CoalTwitter
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“Extra drilling”…going to be hearing a lot more of this phrase $OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL
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$RIG Do not believe this Inspiration contract has been announced yet (if accurate). The “multiple idle rigs” bear case looking thin.
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It’s already fixed…
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Deepwater economics and emissions intensity metrics are among the best in the industry $RIG $NE $VAL
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$RIG Orion/Corcovado final contract details for $PBR tender wins released. Orion is unencumbered while Corcovado is pledged to the RCF.
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I am taking full responsibility for the current 15-20% drawdown (from the highs) on $RIG and any/all future corrections. Please unfollow/block.
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It is happening this year $RIG
@MugsLuck
Probably not happening this year but time to take full ownership of the Norge (Related Party Transactions pp 51-52)
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$OIH $NE $DO $RIG $VAL $SDRL “slightly off” on the acquiror but more to come..
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This is literally the most recent article generally discussing the offshore drilling published by
@FT
$OIH $RIG $NE $VAL
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$RIG This entire thread makes me even more bullish. Appears to have brought out all the haters most of which appear to be misinformed. But I won’t use the word charlatan b/c everyone is entitled to a thesis.
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Current $RIG bear thesis
- Typo in FSR
-HE rig contract signings released prior to April FSR
- Projected ‘23 neg operating FCF of 75mm vs neg 269mm actual in ‘22
- 4 rigs potentially rolling off contract over the next 6 mths
- “Not a good look, Not involved, No recommendation”
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