MG
@mg10012
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Fan of Velazquez. Investor motivated by Information Theory and ideas of Claude Shannon. Professional Infovore.
New York, USA
Joined January 2009
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松野さん
• 109173 Tweets
松野太紀さん
• 90588 Tweets
RENO12 WITH MILKLOVE
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金田一少年の事件簿
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犬夜叉の鋼牙
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万丈目さん
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スポンジボブ
• 45322 Tweets
#映画よめぼく
• 38158 Tweets
Burberry x Pond
• 37624 Tweets
ANDAM JURY ROSÉ
• 27928 Tweets
#初星学園HR
• 23096 Tweets
كوريا
• 16721 Tweets
Patrick Underwater🫧
• 15874 Tweets
Razem
• 15810 Tweets
アナザーアイドル
• 13063 Tweets
一ちゃん
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اليابان
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@AmyMek
This is xenophobia of the worse kind. If you eat meat, where do you think it comes from? At least having a sacred ritual that honors the animal, where the act of slaughter for food isn't an abstraction, is a good thing. Moreover, it is an affirmation of 1st amendment rights.
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@ecommerceshares
Like I wrote many times, until this becomes "common knowledge" the industry will continue to operate like this. The whole SaaS + Internet + VC ecosystem depends on this form of grift-as-a-business-model. All shareholders are looking for the next sucker to hold the bag.
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@Carnage4Life
This just shows what an incredible scam SBC has become. The central idea behind SBC was that employees took risk along with shareholders. Now, employees with SBC want to be made whole if stock goes down. Where is my makewhole as a shareholder?
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#NewProfilePic
"Betty" -- Gerhard Richter (1988)
St. Louis Art Museum
To start the new year, I thought I'd return to the beginning of my profile pics with Gerhard Richter's "Betty" -- a painting of his young daughter. This might be my all-time favorite painting, and in my
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To all who contacted
@TwitterSupport
on my behalf, thank you so much, as it appears to have expedited my return. Here is the response from Twitter as to what happened:
I am still waiting for DMs, followers, and following to be populated.
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@TakNevimNevim
@AlexAIDaily
@vr_tonio
I'm going to call BS on this. A lot of "quant" strategies look great on paper, but don't survive real world tests (commissions and trading frictions).
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@toomuchpete
@Carnage4Life
Your statement at least shows how the old "incentives are aligned" line was a lie. But, you are wrong. SBC does not make labor cheaper, it makes the expense easier to hide. Why don't companies just pay folks in cash? It's because they can print shares but not cash.
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@unusual_whales
@elonmusk
How many people think that JPM waited to sell their longs and buy a whole bunch of puts on tsla before they announced this? 🤔
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#Newprofilepic
"Drowning Girl" -- Roy Lichtenstein (1963) - MoMa
My favorite artist of the Pop Art movement is famous for these artistic reinterpretations of comic book graphics. His work is decidedly American, reflective of mid-century optimism and sensibilities, and is a bit
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@RudyHavenstein
@Starbucks
Isn’t this illegal? After all, why are all our cash bills stamped with the “this note is legal tender” nonsense?
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#NewProfilePic
"Christina's World" by Andrew Wyeth, 1948
Museum of Modern Art, NYC
I have used this before, but I come back to it today. Perhaps because it's going to be summer soon, or just that it has some emotional resonance.
When I was young, this painting felt desperate
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#NewProfilePic
"Death of Socrates" by Jacques Louis David (1787) - Metropolitan Museum of Art in NYC
Louis David was a leader of the Neoclassical movement in French painting and an advocate of the French Revolution, so his version of Socrates' death has a decidedly Romantic
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#NewProfilePic
Back to the master:
Gerhard Richter
"Lesende" (The Reader) -- 1994
San Francisco MoMa
No, that's a photorealistic painting.
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#NewProfilePic
"The Milkmaid" by Johannes Vermeer (c. 1657)
Rijksmuseum, Amsterdam
Since Richter appears to be influenced by Vermeer, I decided to look at the Old Master himself. The use of light and color is sublime, as are the quotidian details of life in the Dutch Republic
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To those in the Persian speaking world and its vicinity, the first day of spring marks the first day of the new year. The day is known as nowruz (literally meaning "new day"). There is an undeniable logic to starting a solar calendar with the first day of spring. The ancient
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@just_in_are_not
@c_k_lynch
It’s a sad testimony to how the development patterns of post-WW2 America have destroyed the built environment. Newer parts of the country look garish and inhospitable coming from the older parts of East Coast, the South, or the Midwest.
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To those celebrating, I wish you a blessed Easter.
#NewProfilePic
"Supper at Emmaus" -- Caravaggio (1605/6)
Brera Art Gallery -- Milan
This is the slightly less well known version of the Supper at Emmaus by Caravaggio. To me, it is a more mature version, as Caravaggio was older and had endured a lot of hardship in the interim
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#NewProfilePic
"Still Home" by Wolfgang Tillmans (1996) -- private collector
I'm back to contemporary photography and to Tillmans. In various points, I've found myself drawn to still life painting and photography. For me, the fascination is how the artist attempts to make
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#NewProfilePic
"Untitled - Self Portrait w/ Sun Tan" by Cindy Sherman (2003)
I was drawn to the contemporary world of photography once again and to Cindy Sherman's work. Most of her famous works are self-portraits of the artist in one guise or another. For me, this Sherman
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@TheLastDegree
Dude, you were wrong big time in your pinned tweet. Stop trying to pretend this is exactly going to your plans. “this is what i wanted to see” sounds absurd because it’s obviously not true.
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To those interested in pivoting away from markets and geopolitical turmoil,
@D1rk_G3ntly
and I will be hosting a Space this evening to talk about works of art that we both like. Bring your favorites and chat about it.
Dirk will bring his understanding of art history and
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@LawrenceLepard
Not really the Rubicon. The real Rubicon is looking at interest payments as a percentage of annual federal spending. If that gets too large, then the gov't CANNOT spend to grow. That's the true debt trap. Right now, a rat race between higher debt and lower interest rates.
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To all celebrating, Eid Mubarak. May God accept your prayers and fasting.
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To friends celebrating, Happy Passover, or as I was also taught "Chag Pesach Sameach".
I thought I'd share a great lithograph by Chagall that celebrates a modernist rendering of a Seder meal, with foods to be displayed at eaten during Passover.
"The Tribe of Benjamin"
Marc
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Fed news: begining of pivot?
@Lava_Flow2
1. Bullard backs 75bps (instead of 100, presumably) and "this time is different" language on yield inversion being a worry.
2. Daly sees signs of inflation decreasing.
3. Bostic "should not move rates too dramatically"
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#NewProfilePic
"The Dessert: Harmony in Red" -- Henri Matisse (1908)
Hermitage Museum -- St. Petersburg, Russia
A lower profile painting from Matisse's dalliance with Fauvism, I was drawn to this because of the expressive use of the color red -- strange because I knew Matisse
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#NewProfilePic
"The Gulf Stream" by Winslow Homer, 1899
The Met, New York
Displaying the raw power of nature and the courage of folks who tempt fate and try to navigate such uncertainty. An homage to the American spirit (and today's markets?), by one of our finest painters.
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@DereckCoatney
The Fed’s H8 data yesterday was bearish again. Total bank loans declined by $26b. C&I loans down $13.9b. Residential mortgages up $5b. Credit card loans down $7.4b.
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@LawrenceLepard
I agree that what Fed is doing is massive currency debasement, but I just wanted to point out that the mechanism right now is not CPI inflation. When deflationary bust happens, Fed will have to monetize debt at that point. Game over. massive inflation
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This is a bit disingenuous. The vast majority of firms that get VC funding from the Sand Hill road crowd are deemed to have hyper-growth potential, so that they can generate an exit for the VC to a non-financial buyer or IPO into the public markets to a crowd intoxicated by
Bootstrapping is a proper subset of taking venture funding. Taking venture funding lets a company choose its growth rate. One end of this continuum is to raise zero dollars and just take whatever default growth rate you can get off your own revenues.
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@OneMoreif
@mfwarder
Another episode of "This is how it's done" -- $AMR. Generating almost $50 in annualized EPS (< 4x P/E) and buying back > 6% of shares this quarter. Overall, these guys have reduced diluted share count from 19.35 mm shares to a little under 14mm shares now.
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#NewProfilePic
"Supper at Emmaus" -- Caravaggio (1605/6)
Brera Art Gallery -- Milan
This is the slightly less well known version of the Supper at Emmaus by Caravaggio. To me, it is a more mature version, as Caravaggio was older and had endured a lot of hardship in the interim
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@NeckarValue
The moral of the story: even the most successful systematic players believe in the superiority of human judgement and calling audibles during strange periods.
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If you are trading/investing by yourself and want some great entertainment and speculative trading info in the background, follow
@JimJame74888138
. I don't agree with him on a lot of things, but the guy has an infectious charisma and one can't help cheer him on in his trades.
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Sad to hear the sudden news about
@RobInTheBlack
. The guy had a novel view about the persistence of broadening formations, told an epic story about the time he ran into Lemmy (from Motorhead) at a bar, and spoke of his spiritual battles with many demons. RIP brother! 🙏
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@contrarian8888
@Ultradeep3
I'm not sure I understand the investment thesis for $RIG stock vs $RIG bonds at this juncture.
1. The company is barely positive EBIT but improving. Now, they need more utiliz. at current day rates, but this could another year to play out.
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I am so glad an ML person has enough econometric intuition to state the limits of ML techniques on economic data. The Lucas critique is legit.
The main challenge of machine learning in all economic applications are endogenous variables and the so-called Lucas critique (related to Goodhart's law).
The latter states that economic relationships change with the changing expectations of market participants and their ...
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Please join
@Sami_lynnnnn
,
@NeelyTamminga
, and others for a "Micro" space where we discuss some company earnings, business models, and markets largely from a fundamental analysis perspective.
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@Vexxly
Given the fact that we haven't heard anything definitive on this, our Bayesian update has to be that a highly improbable event remains highly improbable. I assume that there would be some observable signs if anything like this were happening, and that folks would have leaked it.
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I think it’s virtually impossible to fight inflation with monetary tightening, and then turn around to increase fiscal stimulus. The bond market will see right through it and inflation expectations won’t budge.
Germany is "likely to announce" an energy price subsidy for households and businesses of €150-200 billion. They're calling it a "price brake" but it's a subsidy, one of the largest so far in this ongoing energy crisis, and similar to a policy
@trussliz
implemented in the UK.
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@agnostoxxx
But all the BTC maxis told me that BTC was stored energy. That's why it has value. WTF?
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@contrarian8888
Excellent thread. Part of the issue with cyclical businesses is the poor capital allocation of mngt. teams. The CFOs seem to be deer in headlights, as opposed to buying back aggressively. If stock is < 10x FCF, buyback is hugely accretive and better than capex.
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Honest question to the
#silversqueeze
crowd:
Please help me understand this. If registered Ag in the COMEX vaults is about 70mm ounces, then why could a group of folks simply "break the bank" in the following manner?
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@toomuchpete
@Carnage4Life
I would agree with the idea that paying with shares allows companies to save on cash, but it’s not cheaper. The value is the same. With cash, the hit is to the company’s balance sheet. With shares, the other shareholders take a hit through dilution.
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I am an old investor, but new to shorter-term trading. I'm taking a small shot (the operative word being small) by buyin SPY 6/17 400C @ $2.65. Seems overdone here.
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@contrarian8888
If you are buying $SLV instead of miners or $PSLV, aren’t you just aiding the paper in the paper versus physical battle for silver?
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People are worried that the productivity gains from AI will be either 0.5% or 1.5%. The far more important question will be who gets the gains: labor or capital. I cannot see a scenario where capital doesn’t get the vast majority of the gains.
GS heavily caveat it and have all sorts of assumptions involved, but I will bet that generative AI comes nowhere close to raising baseline productivity by 150bps per year.
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We have a pretty stellar crew of speakers.
@wabuffo
@NeelyTamminga
@deerpointmacro
@stocktalkweekly
@EmmaCFA1
@trendwhizo
and others.
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To Monetary plumbing nerds:
@wabuffo
@stevehouf
et. al.
These 2 time series were anti-correlated prior to 2020, but became somewhat coupled post-COVID. Any thoughts on the explanatory power of reserve balances with the Fed w/ S&P? (Source: H.4.1 reports from Fed)
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@alva_jr1
@FieldofHistory
@NeelyTamminga
@OmidJ1017
@Ibelievethefed
@ThetaRider
@timber001
@MonetiveWealth
@GCompounder
@migneault_david
@BMWeinstein7
@JackMonero
It is a problem for China, but less so because they don’t have the degree of property rights as we do. Thus, the CCP can force a debt restructuring in a way we cannot.
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While this is not her book, "Bankers' New Clothes", this paper does incorporate some of her ideas about bank leverage.
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@David_Tracey
@Amdalleq
This seems to suggest that off-market traders are setting price, and that the people who are trading this during market hours are purely noise traders in the aggregate. IOWs, off-market trading is the signal and market-hour trading is noise. Weird.
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$BTU looks promising. In the investor presentations today, the company clarified its stance on capital budgeting. It's priorities are:
1) eliminate its secured debt (~ $550mm)
2) fund all health liabilities and reclamation issues
3) ORGANIC growth opps
4) shareholder return
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@allinarchie
@zavid110
@OHare888
@JoeCarlasare
I typically don't like to buy distressed bonds at 55% (the 3.375% of 2028). The YTM states that this thing is headed to bankruptcy, but no real tangible assets and can be DIPed and primed. You will get a lot less that 0.56 per $ if Chap 11. Wait until low 40s, IMO.
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@sentdefender
This sounds absurd. Unless someone corrects me, I don’t think we ever contemplated such actions in the middle of the cold war with the Soviets. This seems like an incendiary move against a hostile nuclear power. No bueno.
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Come and join us in a conversation about companies reporting this week.
@Ibelievethefed
@161phi
@LillybeLilly
@phi_ci
@migneault_david
@Benshooter
@AndrewPerti
@trentkelp
@MonetiveWealth
and more.
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@BMWeinstein7
@ThetaRider
@FieldofHistory
@Benshooter
@migneault_david
@Ibelievethefed
@OmidJ1017
I think Powell’s statement was very similar to the ones prior to it, even when you include the jawboning. The difference is how folks were positioned, which determined the move today. Equity mkts were hoping for more dovish stuff from JP.
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@FieldofHistory
@ThetaRider
@Ibelievethefed
@GCompounder
@OmidJ1017
@JackMonero
@timber001
@BMWeinstein7
@migneault_david
@Josephfattorus1
@MonetiveWealth
@thomasgerlach
No way this holds up without destroying housing and commercial real estate ?
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@Reswot
@lisaabramowicz1
@Mctaguej
@IanRHarnett
@christinemcdan
👆This. It's amazing how our policy response is not to deal with this problem. All the fighting over Obamacare was ultimately about who is going to pay, not about why it costs so much.
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@DereckCoatney
@SoccerMomTrades
On the fundamental side, the recent H.8 data from Fed suggests that credit keeps contracting. Even with all the QE, banks are not lending. Bank loans have declined by about $63 billion in Sept from Aug. That coupled with loss of stimulus checks, we are looking at rough Q4.
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If the article below is true, the pro-crypto argument is seriously damaged regardless of BTC price. The consensus mechanism can essentially predate on those who happen to own a larger stake, thus being no different from mob rule.
@profplum99
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I agree with this assessment.
When
@balajis
says he is "ideologically driven," he's not lying. He and his comrades have an explicit political agenda to replace the Dollar and bring about a new world order run by a plutocratic elite of free agents who remain removed from the obligations of citizenship & place.
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@SoccerMomTrades
@Callum_Thomas
Exactly, not so easy when the 10Y at 3.5% breaks the high yield market, many companies cannot get credit which causes slowdown and recession, and Fed has to relive Dec. 2018.
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@Bradlito1
@leadlagreport
It means that, en masse, people made way too many promises (i.e. debt) than they can ever deliver on. Our government took on the debt and socialized it. There’s no way to forgive all of it but thru inflation. Except, no one can admit this. So, here we are.
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Join
@BMWeinstein7
and I to discuss the long term investment case (if any) for the fallen angels within the SaaS and software space.
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Thanks to
@Greencandleit
and
@notabigdeal111
, we had a fantastic Spaces last night.
One of the cool things was an impromptu appearance by
@profplum99
. I got a chance to ask him about the Gabaix & Koijen article on the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
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I don't want to get on the buyback train again, but I can't help it. $AMR announced solid numbers today: EPS of ~ $17.00 (vs. $14.15 expected) and revenue of $911mm vs. $885mm expected. Most importantly, they repurchased 870k shares in the quarter (about 5% of total).
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@Ibelievethefed
For those who are wondering, “demand goes to shit” is a technical term within the tech industry meaning that demand has indeed gone to shit. 🤣
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@ecommerceshares
"Common knowledge" in the game-theoretic sense - everyone knows THAT everyone knows. I've talked to countless tech bulls (smart ones at that) who respond to the absurd SBC issue with "but no one cares about it". So, while the criticism is public, it is not yet common knowledge.
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@DavidBCollum
@FieldofHistory
@ThetaRider
@gnostic1977
@Ibelievethefed
@wabuffo
@timber001
@murray_orr
@deerpointmacro
@migneault_david
@BMWeinstein7
@EmmaCFA1
I think Sternlicht's point was that the Fed can't really stop this kind of inflation, due to energy supply chain + deglobalization + massive fiscal stimuli. Thus, why raise rates so aggressively to create a credit crisis that will require a reversal from the Fed anyway?
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I wanted to highlight a potential compounder: $BLDR. I had a starter position in this from Oct. Regrettably, I put less than 2% into this, but it has been a great trade thus far and might be a good hold (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, do your own DD).
Here is a 🧵
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@8750Capital
@mnskymoment
I think the selling in $BTU is a referendum on the mngt team. The fact that BTU has not released a PR dealing with the surety issue coupled with risk that they might not be so aggressive with buybacks means that mkt is in “Show Me” mood before BTU is rerated higher.
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@FieldofHistory
@ThetaRider
@Ibelievethefed
@161phi
@BMWeinstein7
@GCompounder
@MonetiveWealth
@timber001
@JackMonero
@OmidJ1017
Summarizing Jamie Dimon regarding cutting off loans to the fossil fuel industry, "that would be the road to hell for America".
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@GCompounder
@FieldofHistory
@ThetaRider
@Ibelievethefed
@timber001
@MonetiveWealth
@OmidJ1017
@161phi
@BMWeinstein7
@migneault_david
I think they know the consequences if they sell down the Fed’s balance sheet, given the impact lower liquidity has on asset prices. I don’t find the threat of QT credible.
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@MomAngtrades
I think the difference (and big one) is that CSCO was run by a super slick salesman in John Chambers (not a founder). NVDA is still run by a maniacal founder in Jensun, who will go down swinging.
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@jameslavish
Well, don’t leave us hanging. Please enumerate a couple of tangible things that can go wrong as a result of this within the next 6 months. Inquiring minds want to know. 🤔
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@161phi
@FieldofHistory
@ThetaRider
@Ibelievethefed
@MonetiveWealth
@gorge147857788
@timber001
@RadicalAdem
@BMWeinstein7
@migneault_david
@OHare888
@wabuffo
@deerpointmacro
Are you suggesting that SBF was an agent of SPECTRE? Is he gonna get Epsteined?
@OHare888
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@kayfabecapital
Why do I get an Acteryx ad before Powell speaks? Is that because I will be in the wilderness facing the harsh elements after he speaks?
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@DereckCoatney
But if it’s bearish, it must be bullish. However, if all are bullish, it must be bearish, which is actually bullish. Turtles all the way down mofo
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