Yannis Stamatopoulos
@Arkalos77
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Owning tiny bits of quality businesses.
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Updated list of 20 ‘quality’ focused funds I follow for idea generation (in alphabetical order). What would you add?
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These 2 white papers on Price to Earnings (P/Ε) are investment gold. 🙏 to
@Gautam__Baid
who brought them to my attention during his pod interviews. The P/E is a heuristic that tells you nothing about the returns the business earns, capital intensity , growth , moats and their
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Every time I hear I could have paid 281 times earnings for Loreal and still beat the market, I think of this Polen Capital Heatmap. Multiple expansion / contraction matters. A P/E that doubles in 10 years is a 7% per year tailwind, one that halves a 7% headwind. Seek twin engines
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$baba have commited to retire 3% of the shares annually for the next 3 years . With 1.5% dividend yield and a 3% buyback yield, the total shareholder yield is 4.5% close to the 10 year treasury yield. With the upside of earnings growth and multiple expansion from a P/E of 8x !
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‘Quality investing’ funds I follow for idea 💡 generation.
Baillie Gifford
Lindsell Train
Markel
AKO Capital
Polen Capital
Giverny Capital
Fundsmith
Brandes Investment partners
Epoch Investment Partners
Wcm Investment Management
Capital Research Global Investors
What else?
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Polen Capital are an elite fund manager with a long track record of outperformance, focusing on quality businesses. Below is a Q1 2024 extract from their flagship Focus Growth Fund (run by the brilliant Dan Davidowitz) on why they purchased a new position in Paycom $payc.
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Lots of noise on the $baba issuance of the $5bn bond. Most of their cash is in 🇨🇳 and not offshore, subject to capital controls. They are increasing their leverage to accelerate buybacks on the cheap. For those following the business this was telegraphed in the Q3 call.
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Bill Nygren of Oakmark Select Fund on why they invested in $PAYC . They nearly tripled their position in Q1 2024. The stock is trading lower today 👇
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Aswath Damodaran’s thinking around portfolio construction and diversification reasonates with me. It is why both $bats British American Tobacco and $adyen Adyen have found a place in my own portfolio. There is no silver bullet when it comes to investing.
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You are after
- high quality businesses
- wide moats (companies that have already won)
- cheap (you do not want to to overpay for them)
Guess what? So is everyone else.
Genuine 🙋♂️. What is your edge in investing? What are you doing differently than the rest?
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The ‘art of not selling’ by Chris Cerrone, ex partner at Akre Capital Management, is a masterpiece. It epitomises Thomas Phelp’s ‘Buy right and hold on’ 💯 to 1 investment philosophy that reasonates with me. I have found the extracts below profound and I’m sharing them hoping
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At $72, the $baba stock implies a 7.6 fcf decline when analysts expect +6.5% CAGR over the next 3. With a single digit P/E, double digit fcf yield and operating in a market where the online retail penetration will soon go from 30% to over 40% the risk return is very favourable ..
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@ChukChukGaadi
@Gautam__Baid
The latter contains many white papers by Michael Maubussin. See page 26 for the one referenced.
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A few words on the investment thesis behind my positions. Let me start off with one of the big ones $baba Alibaba. My average cost basis is $81.62, it currently trades at $83.34 with the all 🕰️ high being $307 back in October 2020. I think it is a buy for the following 5 reasons.
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$bats $bti What’ going on here? 10% divy + 8% capital appreciation= market beating returms. If it is a dream , I do not want to wake up.
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$tcehy Tencent to increase their dividend by 40% and return $16.9 billion to shareholders. Together with $baba $jd they now offer very generous shareholder yields. Coupled with good growth prospects and P/ E multiple expansion their expected returns 👀 very attractive from here..
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🇨🇳 companies representing over 40% of my portfolio exposure reporting next week $baba $tcehy $jd $bidu.
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My fellow $baba bagholders. A friendly reminder that in a week’s time we will hear how many billion worth of $ 💵 we spent buying back our cheap shares this quarter, boosting EPS and shareholder value.
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Investing is a forward 👀 game. Not surprised that Alibaba $baba finished 🆙 after a bad print for the quarter. My key takeaways from the 📞 and management’s commentary.
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No amount of good news can move $bidu Baidu. It is beyond me.
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$ 20 bn worth of fresh money from mainland 🇨🇳 investors queing up to buy Alibaba $baba once the primary listing changes to 🇭🇰 , paving the way to join the Stock Connect program in September. That’s approximately 10% of the float.
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Very intriqued by Loar Holdings Inc $loar, the latest addition in the TCW Compounders ETF by Joseph Shaposhnick. He has an 👁️ for identifying durable businesses with predictable cash flows.Loar specialises in niche Aerospace and defence components. Has anyone done any 📚 on this?
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$bidu Baidu has been a clunker in my portfolio with the position being 30% down. Sticking to it and will add. This is a ‘free AI play’ with the online marketing search business and the $4bn of fcf more than justifying their $19bn EV. I then get Cloud AI, LLM , robotaxis for free
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👀 to buy some serial acquirers with multibagger potential (like their reinvestment dynamics). Any recommendations on reasonably priced quality names that I should study in priority?And please do not recommend Constellation Software. This 🚢 has now sailed …
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Added a bit of Evolution AB $evo.st $evo on weakness today. I almost never average up but this is now cheaper than my original buy with some short term disconnect on market expectations (what the stock price implies vis a vis analyst expectations)
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Added to $bidu position. Keep buying these silly price dislocations in 🇨🇳 tech . Over 40% of the portfolio is now in China. $baba $tcehy $jd $bidu HK Exchanges and Clearing
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Q1 Portfolio Update. Aiming to increase my exposure to technology (hardware , software, semis, IT services) My immediate priority is to significantly add to my melexis and kainos positions taking full advantage of the cyclical weakness. 🇨🇳 tech should also bounce back …
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Pernod Ricard $RI.PA looks mispriced here. Thinking of adding to the position.
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No capital to invest and take further advantage of the market correction. Always fully invested, with no leverage. No regrets, as this works both ways and I have no crystal ball to time the market.
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$jd reporting this week. The price disclocation is really absurd with the current stock price implying a double digit fcf decline while analysts expect it to grow. Margins should also expand with the mix shifting towards 3p. The 1600 warehouses are just the icing on the 🎂.
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Nearly 40% of my portfolio is invested in 🇨🇳 $baba $tcehy (via prosus $prx) $bidu $pdd. With so many false starts over the last couple of years including the Covid reopening it is tempting to trim positions , take some money off the table , try to trade around the core position
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@long_equity
Below are some monopolies I follow (no position yet)
-All exchanges
-Airport Operators like Aena SME $AENA , Fraport etc
-Société des Bains de Mer $BAIN
-China Tower Corporation
-Travelsky Technology
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🇫🇷 is the home of great European businesses and these span well beyond cosmetics and luxury. The election drama is presenting us with great opportunities. Own Eurofins Scientific and Edenred . Keeping an eye on the crown jewels Air Liquide, Dassault Systemes, Schneider Electric..
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Sequoia Fund commentary on Eurofins Scientific $Erf.pa
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@CCM_Brett
British American Tobacco $bats $bti Starting from a low multiple of 6.5 , supported by a 9.5% dividend yield, share buybacks and defensive characteristics during market corrections.
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@DRGinvests
This was covered in the call, see extract below. In short yes, if the price remains the same they will be able to retire more than 3% annually. The 3% figure also assumes price appreciation.
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Picking the best quality businesses (mag 7 et al, the multibaggers of the past) does not guarantee future success and market outperformance. The investmemt game is not a beauty contest. It is about getting the greatest amount of value for the price you are paying for the least
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‘Smart money’ adding to $eden Edenred on weakness. One of the few ‘quality’ names worth buying here in this frothy market. Mind-bogglingly cheap down here with the current stock price implying negative fcf growth for a business with double digit topline growth.
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Is there another wide moat business in the world, with these financial metrics paying you a dividend of 8.5% and be available for purchase at these distressed valuations ? $bats $bti
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The $baba price action today is a reminder of what the great Stanley Druckenmiler preaches.‘Never, ever invest in the present. It doesn’t matter what a company’s earning, what they have earned. You have to visualize the situation 18 months from now’. And management gave us hints!
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@Sino_Market
$baba are now playing offence on both e-commerce and ☁️ computing. This move is very much in line with what their new senior management have telegraphed. Once you 🔒 in these cloud customers , the switching costs become prohibitive.
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Buckle up folks. Moving on to my biggest portfolio position which is no other than British American Tobacco $bats $bti. My average cost basis is £26.72 (have collected 4 fat juicy dividends in the process), it currently trades at £28.67 (hovering at 52 week highs) with the all 🕰️
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Liquidated JD , Eurofins Scientific and Revenio to raise cash and add to Paycom. Big position now, with tech gradually becoming a bigger part of the portfolio.
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$EVO Evolution AB. ‘I call the next two years our “Product Leap” years where we will test new types of games, explore uncharted waters and develop even more innovative games, thereby expanding the gap to our competitors even further’. Martin Carlesund - Group CEO
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Eurofins $ERF.PA response to Muddy Waters Short Selling Report.
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@marketplunger1
$bats British American Tobacco. The ESG mania has made the whole sector uninvestable and therefore cheap. Yet, this is a wide moat company that generates tons of cash, will keep growing revenues and profits through pricing power, new generation products and ITC stake in India.
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@ebitdaddy90
Not true. Dev Kantesaria of Valley Forge Capital, Francois Rochon of Giverny Capital, the Polen Focus Growth Fund, Tom Gayner of Markel to name a few, have significantly outperformed the S&P over time. Aside, what matters to me the most, is their investing framework and filters.
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I have assembled a team (representing 92% of my stock portfolio). $bats $baba $prosus $adyen $payc $mele $ftnt $bidu $knos.L $pubm $mytil.At LFG
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Protean Funds Scandinavia AB commentary on Evolution $EVO.ST $EVVTY $EVO
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$bats $bti Management have been getting a lot of stick for their capital allocation decisions. Specifically about not continuing the share buybacks taking advantage of depressed stock price. Yet Tadeu Marocco is not a dummy. Below is an extract explaining his rationale and plans.
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Update on Alibaba’s $baba share buybacks for Q3 2024
- Spent $ 4.1 bn buying back their cheap stock at an average price of ~ $79 (current stock price is $114)
- Reduced share count by 2.1% for the quarter after accounting for stock based compensation.
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@abrowninvesting
Giverny Capital have exited $MKL. Below is their rationale in case it helps. No position.
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$pmi may have iqos but we $bats $bti we have ITC. They will always have our back …
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@CharlieMunger00
I recently came across this graph by Shroders that I thought I would share. High inflation rates do indeed result in multiple compressions which I believe is the key take away here.
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$baba is a prime example of why investors should not solely focus on revenue and eps growth, ignoring ROIC/ROCE. A business can grow Revenues and EPS without creating value as is the case here. 🇨🇳 commerce ebit has stagnated with all new investments generating negative returns.
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End of year portfolio snapshot. May 2024 bring you health, hapiness and great investment returns.
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@tobaccoinsider
BAT $bats $bti should focus on debt reduction and the continuation of their progressive dividend policy for many many years. The rest (share buybacks, capital appreciation) will then follow naturally.
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Invesco International Equity Fund commentary on why they initated a position in Edenred $eden in Q2 2024. This is also where I’m currently allocating fresh capital. Double digit topline growth with high single digit fcf yield. The risk return profile here, looks very assymetric
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@long_equity
What moves stocks is revisions in market expectations with changes in sales growth expectations being the turbo trigger. This 👇 from ‘Expectations Investing’
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Q3 2024 Portfolio Update.
Happy with my holdings that I intend to coffee can for the next few years. The potfolio fcf yield is more than double that of the S&P (therefore cheap) with good growth prospects. Hopefully some more multibaggers can emerge.
While I don’t rule out
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By the 🏖️ somewhere in Chalkidiki 🇬🇷 on a family holiday. Revisiting some of my old favourite investment books…
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@gnufs
@SorobanCount
I have the utmost respect for WCM and Paul Black. This is somewhat worrying and makes you wonder whether we are missing something deeper with $evo Evolution AB , given the recent weakness in the stock price. Returns on capital are on the decline for some 🕰️ now, the quintile that
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Great investments often emerge through serendipity rather than meticulous planning. Investing is a forward looking game and projecting a company’s 10 year trajectory in this rapidly evolving landscape is futile. I prefer to focus on the next 2-3 years and keep reassesing facts.
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Big week ahead with businesses representing half of my porfolio exposure reporting earnings. 👀 $bats $baba $adyen $ftnt $chemm $el $hsy.
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@rochonpapi
I think of this $bti $bats position like owning a bond and enjoy the progressive dividend income. It is not a smooth ride but when it’s all settled and dusted in addition to the juicy dividends we can redeploy elsewhere, we will also get all our capital back (and more).
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Bullish on $bidu after listening to the $baba call . Alibaba’s ☁️ revenue is expected to return to double digit growth in H2 and accelerate further onwards. Most of this growth is attributed to AI products. AI cloud growth will be a much more meaningful contributor for Baidu.
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Artisan International Value Fund Q1 2024 commentary on Alibaba $baba
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My Alibaba $baba thesis was more story telling and that was intentional to keep it light and focus on the few things that matter. For those interested, below you can also skim through some key financials , forecasts and a reverse dcf to gauge what the currently stock price
A few words on the investment thesis behind my positions. Let me start off with one of the big ones $baba Alibaba. My average cost basis is $81.62, it currently trades at $83.34 with the all 🕰️ high being $307 back in October 2020. I think it is a buy for the following 5 reasons.
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$jd Imagine you are a newcomer that is given $25bn (their EV) to gain their market share in the china e-commerce market, replicate their logistics and fulfilment infrastructure (1600 warehouses) and intangibles (consumer mindshare and reputation for reliability). Good luck!
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Nice to see that baby Fundsmith (Smithson Investment Trust) initiated a 1% position in $Mele Melexis. Cheap semi play with lots of optionality outside of autos.
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Alphyn Capital Management Q2 2024 commentary on Prosus $prosy $prosus
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Broyhill Asset Management commentary on $bats $bti British American Tobacco
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@JS_Value
Nice write up. British American Tobacco $bats $bti is my biggest holding for pretty much the same reasons. ESG considerations by institutional investors made the sector uninvestable (and therefore cheap). Yet these companies are cash cows that still grow profitably.
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@jay223344x
To put things into perspective $bats $bti is a Baa2 investment grade business with a positive outlook. The debt burden increased when they acquired Reynolds back in 2017, but they are delevering. Once they bring debt/ebitda between 2.5 and 3 the focus will switch to buybacks.
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$baba ‘The secular forces in e-commerce is that in China there is a 30% penetration of e-commerce to total retail. Over the next 5 years this penetration will go to 40% and even higher.’ Joe Tsai
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Have now liquidated the remaining half of my Pernod Ricard position to average down on Paycom and make it a full position. Also swapped my small Diageo positon to add to Kainos. Technology is the place to be for long term investors.
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A reminder that Prosus $prx $prosy owns a lot of Meituan , courtesy of the $tcehy Tencent special dividend.
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$bats $bti market expectations are too low and the stock is priced for destruction. Even if one uses very conservative assumptions, the stock is worth much more, with the ITC stake providing additional margin of safety, and new genaration products giving optionality for upside.
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@JRogrow
‘You have to be like a man standing with a spear next to a stream. Most of the time he’s doing nothing. When a fat juicy salmon swims by, the man spears it. Then he goes back to doing nothing. It may be six months before the next salmon goes by.’ Few can exercise such patience.
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Another solid set of results by Edenred $eden that remains dirt cheap here (wide moat business valued as if it no longer growing). Not many businesses out there benefitting from high interest rates and tough economic conditions.
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Adding to my $eden Edenred position here taking advantage of the Jefferies ‘underperfom’ tag, prior to earnings. This is priced as a a no growth business which is far from reality…
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A friendly reminder that a chinese e-commerce business trading 80% below its peak valuation, named $jd generates $ 5.7bn of free cash flow and is not going out of business anytime soon.
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@evbox
Congratulations! We on the other hand are sad to announce we will be suing you unless you submit your audited financials to TPG by the end of this week. Get your house in order. Time is running out and you need to come clean.
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@UKInvestGlobal
Estee Lauder $EL at $375 - ‘Do nothing’ . Estee Lauder at $150 (60% down) - Sold out agressively. Has this business really changed that much ? Most likely they did not time this well, and it will end up being a bad call like Intuit.
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While $prosus has often been a 💰 incinerator aside their $tcehy Tencent investment, they were an early investor in Swiggy (the 🇮🇳 food 🚚 business). At 31% , $prosus $prosy is the biggest investor with Swiggy expected to IPO in mid-October for $15 bn, valuing the Prosus stake
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@Uzocapital
Funnily enough I follow the exact same strategy. 👀 for great businesses when some temporary ☁️ obscure their greatness. Buying $adyen at EUR 643 last year (doubled since then) delivered significant α . Also widening moats in smaller companies that the market has yet to
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Added to my $jd position. The current valuation is just ridiculous.
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@tobaccoinsider
This is very much in line with what the rating agencies have factored in their credit assessments for $bats $bti. Fitch expect a share buyback of £1.5bn in 2026 and £2bn in 2027. A nice boost to EPS and FCF per share.
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