Clifford Sosin
@CliffordSosin
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Pinned Tweet
“If you understand businesses you understand common stocks. If you really know how business works you are an investment manager.” - Warren Buffett 2024
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@bradchattergoon
In what universe is not allowing an applicant like this to stay in the US indefinitely good policy?
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Good investors are wildly optimistic about society as a whole over time but pessimistic about most businesses over time. This is because progress comes through reinvention and reinvention kills incumbent business models.
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When can we all agree that the omicron wave is a cold and move on?
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Charlie Munger was an inspiration to me like so many others. I will miss his wit and wisdom. Fortunately his intellectual and moral legacy lives on. He made the world a better place through his example and his teachings.
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Alright…. I’ve seen other ppl do this. I have a few min. Ask me anything (except specifics about my investments)
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Looking to broaden my listening. What is the best, long form, single stock (per episode), investing focused podcast?
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The average Connecticut resident will be paying $80 more per month for electricity starting Jan 1. This is a direct consequence of policy makers and activists groups opposing a pipeline connecting New England to the cheap and abundant gas in Penn. We must act!
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Tonight my kids caught some of the news out of Ukraine. At bedtime, they were frightened. Explaining to them why they are safe left me feeling profoundly grateful for our military.
Thank you
#USmilitary
servicemen and women! You keep us safe while we sleep.
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I’m always amazed how investors don’t understand that a business’s competitor’s poor results make that business’s results better by comparison. Ex monopolies, competition in business is all a relative game.
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What I find most striking about the big short squeeze/ unwind is how surprised people are by it. History is littered with examples of things like this. (manias, short squeezes, forced liquidations). So it’s wild but. It new. Just off the top of my head here are some examples:
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In the spirit of Valentine’s Day: Remember business isn’t WAR it is SEDUCTION. Great businesses delight their customers motivate their employees and cooperate with their suppliers. They don’t destroy their rivals (at least directly)
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@patrick_oshag
I think that regardless of what’s going on in the world, buying assets you understand for much less than they are worth is the best “stay rich” strategy since it maximizes margin of safety from all forms of peril. By happy coincidence it is the best get rich strategy too.
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@chipflare
@MordorCapital
In general I’ve moved more in the direction of long term thinking. I used to form quarterly estimates and build detailed models but I found I was spending a lot of time and not improving my understanding of why companies win/ lose long term.
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We are so lucky the covid vaccine preceded the delta variant. Had the vaccine come 6 months later or delta 6 months earlier, we would have been in a world of hurt.
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Alright Twitter, Now that a bunch of my thoughts on $CDLX are out there in
@patrick_oshag
’s great podcast… any die hard bears willing to compare notes? I’d love the input. Happy to share on my end.
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List of things that make me super optimistic for my kids and grandkids. (in no particular order) Any additions?
1) billions more people, safe, healthy, educated, connected and inventing.
2) lab grown meats with the huge benefits to natural spaces and over fishing
1/n
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And here I’ve been running a concentrated investing portfolio all these years. 😂
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The bottom line is stocks can and occasionally do do remarkable things. It pays to make a list of the ways you can fail and to never do those things. Shorting highly shorted stocks and or dreams has always been dangerous and I guess now a new generation of investors know it.
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Bloomberg doesn’t care about its customers. I mainly use it for historical Mgmt call recordings and quick access to financial summaries. What are the best alternatives?
#Bloomberg
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@WillasaService
I’d say the “numbers” are not a big part of my “process”. I tend to form a qualitative assessment for why a company wins. Then once I have that I think about what the economic implications of winning are.
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@investing_city
Customers loved Blue Apron, Blockbuster video, and GoPro. Not so much Oracle, Spirit airlines or Exxon Mobile. Pretty sure you should rethink this.
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@ebitdaddy90
@OTL_Capital
Economies of scale, loyalty affect economics, economies of trust, small markets, cournot oligopolies, hotelling equilibrium, diamond paradox (not why diamonds are valuable), disruption, team/ organization design/ rational incentives.
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@andy0___
I used to use up to 8% leverage on the theory that a 90% decline in stocks (like the Great Depression) would would be survivable. I now use none after a 70% drawdown in March 2020 made me appreciate that the overall market is a bad proxy for what might happen to my holdings.
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Just reread this. Always incredible to contemplate. Should be required reading for everyone.
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I am most thankful for the bounty of wisdom that makes modern life possible. The alphabet, liberty, arithmetic, computing, property rights, application programming interfaces and so on. We swim in a sea of ideas that were each devised and passed down by other people over time.
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This jnj vaccine decision is so obviously wrong. It sends a terrifying message about the overall quality of decision-making at fda. If they can plunder this high profile softball so completely imagine the idiocy we don’t see in their more complex, low profile decisions!
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I am friends with josh. He is a first rate thinker. This essay is incredible
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@TenebristGlobal
Unique, winning, big opportunity, back of the envelope math suggestions value of winning >>> market cap
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When Do Investors Freak Out?: Machine Learning Predictions of Panic Selling by Daniel Elkind, Kathryn Kaminski, Andrew W. Lo, Kien Wei Siah, Chi Heem Wong :: SSRN
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@surinboss
Investor presentation. Let them tell me why it’s a great idea. If they can’t then either a) it isn’t or b) they don’t know it is/ how it is. Either way this is an issue. Beyond investor presentation former employees can explain how a company actually works, wins, loses etc.
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The fundamental problem in a typical recession is people need to find jobs in different industries. When the pandemic ends the vast majority of the unemployed know where they can find work... their old job! The unemployment figures have very different meaning than normally.
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@joelmcohen
This is possible if 1) you know what you own and why you own it… so you can focus on what it will be worth in the future 2) you have no significant near term liquidity issues (debt, expenses etc) so you can live through the present and 3) you exercise
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Does anyone know why $gme doesn’t/ can’t issue shares into this silliness? I’d think an atm would be a fine idea now, if not that an underwritten offering... serious question.
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@AndrewRangeley
This is an output goal. Bad goal. Not in your control. What are your input goals achieve this. We can hold you accountable.
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Invent a novel drug and you are rewarded with a lucrative patent. Invent a better way to use an existing drug and you get nothing. We need a publicly funded system of prizes to reward developement of new useful uses of off patent drugs.
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Wonderful video. Bezos, so thoughtful right from the start. Great business people make thoughtful, well reasoned decisions. Their approach makes good sense when explained.
TODAY in 1994:
@JeffBezos
registers the domain name for Amazon.
Here he is, explaining how he got the idea for the company -- and why books were really the only way to start.
(via
@JonErlichman
) $AMZN
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@PrefShares
In some sense all my life. An investment decision brings all the learnings/ experience that you have to the table. Given that you can be pretty sure within a few hrs if it is in your wheelhouse. Other ideas need weeks/ months/ years to study/ percolate.
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@alexcaswen
@ManuelVenator1
I am not sure what is worse the fact that you vandalized the grocery store, the fact that you are proud of it or the fact that you don’t understand this just increased purchases of beyond meat products to offset shrink.
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@bradchattergoon
@zettler456
Moreover the economics literature on this is crystal clear.
Immigrants consume as well as produce. So they “create” as many jobs as they “take”. Someone has to cut his hair, he needs groceries etc and he buys those goods and services with his income.
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@TurnerNovak
This is all very kind and thank you for thinking so highly of me... but has anyone on this thread worked out what 30% for 40 yrs means in $ terms? It is nuts. It is 36,188x. No one can do it. It is impossible on anything but a paltry sum.
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@10kdiver
So this misses the key point. Dividends are STRICTLY WORSE than buybacks. Here is why: a buyback can be converted into a dividend by pro rata selling and a dividend can be converted into a buyback by reinvesting.. BUT 1/n
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I’m looking for a good summary of the European energy crisis. Any recommendations?
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This will be a great convo. Dennis and Tilman are each great!
It was great to record my first yearly conversation with
@DennisHong17
today! We talked about building ShawSpring Partners. Episode two on investing & more will follow.
We also did a shoutout to
@SuperMugatu
,
@iancassel
, and the king of background
@parkcassady
. Follow them all!
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At this point $cvna has enough capital to survive for years in an environment that would bankrupt most dealerships in months. So they are exceptionally well positioned to win in the marketplace regardless of the broader economy.
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This I wholly agree with all (almost all) prices “make sense” if you at least understand the other perspective. Doesn’t make the other perspective correct but you have to understand.
If we look at a stock... and its price doesn’t make sense, we need to think about the system structure. There’s a good chance that its market value does indeed make sense – just not to us – because we don’t yet understand the underlying system structure.
Tsai Capital 2021 letter
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Right or wrong this is a marvelous bit of reasoning through the complexities of a social network
So... everyone seems to think clubhouse is the "next big thing" - but I think it's going to fail.
Here's how I think it all goes down..
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Trying a new way to track offers in the $cdlx channel. If you use Bofa, Chase, Wells or Truist as your everyday spending credit or debit card, mind pls sending me a screenshot of your offer selection? There shouldn’t be any private info on the “deals” tab.
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This is water… wow what a speech by David Foster Wallace
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I love the detailed observations here. Definitely a few developments I hadn’t seen.
New $CDLX Video and Write-up:
“New Observations, Upcoming Earnings Calls, and Updated Allocations”
(Regarding Q3 and Q4 2021)
Video:
Write-up:
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This is not a recession. It is a natural disaster. Comparisons to other natural disasters are more apt.
Post Katrina Louisiana unemployment rate:
Aug 5.4%
Sept 11.3%
Jan 4.9%
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I bet Walmart could perform 3 million Covid vaccinations per day BY ITSELF. (And obviously cvs, Walgreens etc could do millions more per day).
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Congratulations team $cvna! Well deserved!
Carvana Named
#1
Retailer on Forbes 2022 America’s Best Employers List | Business Wire
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Rob is a wonderful manager. Joel/ mit are among the smartest/ most thoughtful allocators
If you are looking to build an independent investment firm from scratch your best bet is to listen to advice from people who have done exactly that. In that vein, we posted this on our new emerging manager page with the author's permission. Thanks, Rob.
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All corporations are owned by people one way or another. Is there any rigorous economic rationale tor taxing both corporations and people? Isn’t it simpler and potentially more targeted to just tax people? Serious economic responses only pls.. no politics.
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@fahdananta
I wish I had a great answer for you. Conviction for me is having a mechanical feeling sense for how an investment will work. Simplicity helps. A, B and C are all clearly true and if they are the investment will be great. But I imagine conviction feels different for different ppl
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By far the most interesting point in that meeting comes in the next question where the slack exec explains from a detailed software architecture perspective why msft would struggle to duplicate slack connect.
At the $WORK fireside chat last month, an analyst asked Stewart “Why isn’t Salesforce a big Slack customer?” His response and reaction at 46:15 here
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@polarcalorie
asked how $Cvna loan sales show up on in the cash flow statement.
When Cvna originates a loan they book the loan asset at cost. This is a use of cash “origination of finance receivables” on the cash flow statement
If the loan is $100 they use $100
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Cardlytics Appoints Alex Mishurov to its Board of Directors | Cardlytics
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Just a reminder that while our focus on Covid-19/ blm/ a contentious election/ China tensions might make us forget it, we all live in the richest, fairest, safest, healthiest, freest society in human history. The very best day to be born yet is today but tomorrow will be better
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I like this quote. I’ve been joking with people that the problem with owning a 100 bagger is at some point you are holding only a 2 bagger and you should be able to find something better.
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This is a wonderful story and captures the emotional journey that long term investing entails
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A way I invented with a friend to eliminate banking crises and the resulting recessions while reducing and simplifying regulation and decreasing the cost of funds in the banking sector... Please read. Comments welcome
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So annoying that I can’t upload my library of digital books and audiobooks into chatgpt in order to have it make arguments drawn from various sources or grab the details and sources of an argument that I remember in generalities.
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@revontuletcap
Most important is to keep plugging away. The hardest part of the job (where I need willpower) is to start on a new idea after looking at a bunch of bad ideas. Often I can’t and end up reading or listening to a book or something before coming back to it.
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Stocks are claims on future consumption. Lower stock prices mean more future consumption for net savers. Most people are net savers. Thus lower stock prices mean more future consumption for most people. People like consumption. So they cheer when stocks go down right?
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Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine is highly effective after just one dose and can be stored in ordinary freezers, according to new data
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Ford has a website: . Guess what you can’t do on that website!
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I’m surprised there isn’t a lot more praise for McCarthy. He is risking his political career/ position etc for effective government. You don’t see that so often in politics.
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Best tweet EVER
In the age of the Internet everything has become hyperbole:
-They are the WORST politician EVER
-This will be the MOST destructive storm EVER
-The other party is the WORST
-2020 is the WORST year
-MOST important election
When all you have is hyperbole people stop listening.
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@CaitlinPacific
Poor Charlie’s Almanac by Charlie Munger. It teaches remedial worldly wisdom and if you don’t know what that is read the book.
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@joelmcohen
The most frustrating response for me was always “we are interested and want to follow you.” Which was not genuine 99% of the time. So giving a clear no in most cases already puts you miles ahead.
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Looking for a new investment idea to explore. (Will obviously share what I learn). Any suggestions? (Criteria: > $1bn market cap, >10x upside over 10 yrs in base case, you would invest half your net worth in idea if you were going to a desert island and could not trade it) dm me
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Wow. Patrick is unstoppable
Last time we shared information on the traction we'd seen for Canvas, the first custom indexing platform, we'd crossed $1B with 9 partner firms
Today, we crossed $2B, and have 27 partners
So proud of the team, and thankful to our partners!
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$cvna
If you could fix 1 thing about car buying, what would it be?
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@MylesMarino1
I actually think the system is quite good. Think about it! Anyone, anywhere can buy almost any amount of many thousands of (generally) well run companies. Companies can (generally) raise capital to fund meritorious projects. And it all costs so little! What a marvel!
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@RobertRBunch
Haha. I drink a ton of coffee my wife makes at home in the morning (about 10 cups). Then I drink Dunkin k cups in the afternoon. (Probably another 4-8 cups). Not a lot of Starbucks. Little coffee after 3pm for sleeping
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People don’t understand how pandemic impacts the economy... a few thoughts
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The oura ring purchase funnel is literally the single worst e-commerce experience I have ever had
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The piggly wiggly short squeeze/ corner, the Porsche short squeeze, the books-a-million mania (not to mention the tech bubble mania), the quant unwind in 08, and of course the gfc liquidations are all examples of these sorts of things.
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If you can’t say 5 good and bad things about any prominent powerful politician about whom you care, you are hopelessly partisan and unable to reason clearly about politics, policy or investments.
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The panic of 1907 and Lords of Finance are great books. Has anyone read any similar books about other financial panics (other than the Great Recession).
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@WAndreasyan
Debt adds risk of failure. So it may not be available or prudent. The change in the share count needs to be factored into returns. It is also possible that issuing shares can add value even if the shares are undervalued provided what you get adds more value than what you give up
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Quarterly earnings matter because we glean hints at the long term future of businesses. As results during the pandemic have almost no bearing on the long term future of most businesses, covid earnings don’t matter. (There are of course exceptions but this is the rule)
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Why does this seem so familiar?
When you blindly follow others, there are consequences
Army ants are blind, relying on pheromones to track the ones in front, if one ant intersects with its old trail, it results in a circular death trap where they spiral until they die from exhaustion
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@realdennishong
@MylesDanielsen
Not to mention that 5% shorts are DANGEROUS! When then 20x for no reason you go broke. Doesn’t happen often but it does happen and you only can go broke once.
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I love The Drive podcast by
@PeterAttiaMD
. Any other science focused podcasts that are similarly willing to go deep and of interest to experts but try to remain accessible to the lay person?
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Just finished power sex and suicide mitochondria and the meaning of life by nick lane and it blew my mind. One of the best books I’ve encountered in yrs. (and I read or listen to a lot of books).
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