Heavy Moat Investments
@stonkmetal
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Young self-taught investor and Software dev | Quality Value Investing | Writer at Substack | Entertainment only, no financial advice
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Check out my newsletter on
@SubstackInc
where you can find free monthly portfolio updates and paid dives into (European) small Caps and other investing content
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5 easy criteria to weed out 97% of stocks 📈
1. ROIC >15%
2. Net Debt/EBITDA <2x
3. 5-year Revenue growth >10% CAGR
4. EBIT Margin >10%
5. 5-year OCF/FCF growth >15%
What criteria would you add?
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1K
The difference good Capital Allocation can make.
How $RICK went from 21 years of dead money to a 10-bagger in 6 years. A small 🧵
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If you could only have 5 stocks (regardless of valuation), which would it be? These are mine 📈
1. Constellation Software $CSU
2. Texas Instruments $TXN
3. Copart $CPRT
4. MSCI $MSCI
5. Danaher $DHR
Let me know your choices 👇
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A few weeks ago my friend
@FromValue
recommended me "100 Baggers" from Christopher Mayer.
Here are my favourite parts of it 🧵
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Sonova is a high-quality Swiss compounder that nobody talks about.
They are the leader in hearing aid solutions 🦻 and here is why I invested 3% of my portfolio into $SOON.
So sit back and hear me out (had to do it) 👇
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Why I invested 6% of my portfolio into Constellation Software
A thread about $CSU.TO $CNSWF 🧵
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Distributors are often great businesses with deep moats and high returns on capital employed. These are my favorites 📈
1. Fastenal $FAST (40%)
2. W.W. Grainger $GWW (40%)
3. Pool $POOL (35%)
4. Watsco $WSO (31%)
5. Ferguson $FERG (28%)
Who would you add?
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5 high-quality businesses I own with high insider ownership (>10%) 📈
1. $DHR Danaher (10%)
2. $ATD Alimentation Couche-Tard (24%)
3. $LIFCO Lifco (50%)
4. $NEM Nemetschek (53%)
5. $NSSC Napco Security (17%)
Who would you add?
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Today I sold my $ADBE position and put the money into $GOOG $CRM.
Here are my reasons 👇
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Yesterday I shared 5 quality criteria to weed out 97% of stocks. Here are 8 example results📈
1. $GOOG Alphabet
2. $TSLA Tesla
3. $ABNB Airbnb
4. $CSU Constellation Software
5. $CPRT Copart
6. $IT Gartner
7. $NVR NVR
8. $ATKR Atkore
Surprised about any of those? Who's missing?
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Why I bought more $TXN shares and why they are more than just your highschool calculators. A thread 👇
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Here are 5 quality companies with >20% ROIC trading below their 200 day SMA 📈
1. Home Depot $HD (30% ROIC)
2. Qualcomm $QCOM (24%)
3. Lockheed Martin $LMT (20%)
4. ADP $ADP (36%)
5. Williams-Sonoma $WSM (31%)
Who else? 👇
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I'm getting very close (23) to my limit of 25 individual stocks. Not sure if I should try to cut down on positions or not. I want to be concentrated, but I also keep finding attractive stocks.
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Why I invested 3% into a Swedish Serial Acquirer that achieved a 31% CAGR since its SECOND IPO in 2014
A small thread about $LIFCO 🧵
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Five quality stocks I'm buying that are beaten down 📉
1. $RICK RCI Hospitality (38% drawdown)
2. $ADYEN (76%)
3. $NSSC Napco (43%)
4. $ULTA Beauty (28%)
5. $AOJ (39%)
Who would you add and why?
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$GOOG is trading at almost 5000 times 2002 earnings.... it's really not that cheap. Thanks for coming to my TedTalk.
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Today I initiated a 3% position in $RICK
Serial acquirer of Strip clubs and a sports bar chain.
Let's get into why I decided to buy them. A quick thread 👇
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I try to own compounding machines at reasonable prices. Here are 5 great compounders that are sadly too expensive for me📈
1. Rollins $ROL (29x forward EV/EBITDA)
2. Heico $HEI (29x)
3. IDXX Labs $IDXX (36x)
4. Mettler-Tolado $MTD (27x)
5. Cintas $CTAS (21x)
Who else?
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I recently layed out why I am long $TXN (5% portfolio).
They had their capital management presentation this week laying out the next decade.
Let's dive into it a little 👇 Retweet if you enjoyed
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Pat Gelsinger's compensation plan at $INTC. Not a single operational goal, all based on market cap, very counter-intuitive and a prime example of what not to do.
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5 great life science tools and services compounders with wide moats 📈
1. $DHR Danaher
2. $MTD Mettler-Toledo
3. $DIM Sartorius Stedim
4. $WAT Waters Corp
5. $TMO Thermo Fisher
I own 1 and 3, what about you? Who's missing?
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Portfolio update. Top 5 account for 44%, top 10 for 70%
Bought: $ATD
Increased: $AMZN, $LIFCO, $DHR, $RICK
Detailed substack article 👇
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There are only 18 NA Dividend growth stocks with >10% dividend 5Y-CAGR, Debt/EBITDA <0.5, ROIC>10% and >3% FCF yield.
These are my favorites 📈
1. $TXN TI (17%)
2. $ACN Accenture (10%)
3. $ADP ADP (13%)
4. $WSO Watsco (13%)
5. $UFPI UFP Industries (24%)
Who are yours?
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I like to clone great investors. In his 2015 letter $CSU Mark Leonard studied 8 High-Performance Conglogomerates 👇
1. $AME Ametek
2. $DHR Danaher
3. $DOV Dover
4. $ITW ITW
5. $ROP Roper
6. $JKHY Jack Henry
7. $TDG Transdigm
8. United Technologies (now $RTX)
Own any of these?
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Most overrated book in finance
Of course I've read it. What kind of investor are you if you haven't? 😘
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5 compounder companies I own that I'd love to see dip so I can buy more shares 📈
1. Copart $CPRT (24x fwd EV/EBIT)
2. Nemetschek $NEM.DE (39x)
3. Constellation Software $CSU (35x)
4. Lifco $LIFCO (25x)
5. Microsoft $MSFT (24x)
Who'd you add?
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We are certainly in a bull market when people are making $COST DCF models with a 3% WACC.... how did this get past
@SeekingAlpha
editors???
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"Dividends are an expensive luxury" - Here are 5 long-term winners without a dividend 📈
1. Copart $CPRT (20% CAGR Total Return)
2. NVR $NVR (25% CAGR)
3. Gartner $IT (15% CAGR)
4. Amazon $AMZN (27% CAGR)
5. Adobe $ADBE (17% CAGR)
Who would you add?
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5 high-quality businesses with high returns on Capital (>20%) at a fair value 📈
1. $AAPL Apple (39%)
2. $TXN Texas Instruments (27%)
3. $QCOM Qualcomm (28%)
4. $ADP Automatic Data Processing (35%)
5. $ORLY O'Reilly Automotive
Who would you add?
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Sometimes it just takes one slide to get me interested in a company $PKG
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Five high quality companies I own that are currently out of favor 📉📈
1. Sartorius Stedim $DIM (-26% under 200 day SMA)
2. Danaher $DHR (-7)
3. RCI Hospitality $RICK (-7%)
4. Sonova $SOON (-2%)
5. Ulta Beauty $ULTA (-1%)
Who would YOU add?
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$ASML estimates that technological sovereignty will drive chips manufacturers away from Taiwan. Many think $INTC will be the big beneficiary, but I much prefer $TXN to benefit from this trend. Check out my new
@SeekingAlpha
article here 👇
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I bought more $ATKR today. A few reasons why 📈
1. $DHR DNA
2. 35% FCF ROIC
3. M&A track record
4. Share cannibal (-3% CAGR)
5. 10 times forward cash flow
6. 21/22 elevated profits, still cheap normalized
Do you know Atkore or even own it?
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Buybacks can destroy shareholder value:
$ADBE repurchased 33 million shares in the last 9 years for $23 billion. To acquire
#figmaadobe
the company will use ALL 33 million shares valued at just $12 billion + $10 b cash.
Real cost for shareholders: $33 billion for $400m ARR.
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What are the highest quality businesses you know trading at a discount right? Why are they attractive here?
I'll start with $DHR and $ADYEN, two quality companies experiencing temporary setbacks.
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Portfolio update. Top 5 now accounts for 48% $GOOG, $AMZN, $CSU.TO, $ASML, $TXN.
Concentration at work
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Portfolio update. Top 5 account for 50.59%, top 10 for 77.41%.
New: $ADYEN
Significantly added to $MSFT, now my largest position.
Looking at $CPRT right now, but it's pricy.
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I recently started to track when I first bought the companies I own. I hope to eventually see most of my portfolio in long-term holdings....portfolio turnover has been quite high in recent months.
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Free cash flow is my favorite profitability metric, but it can be distorted in many ways 👇
1. Change in Inventories
2. Change in Accounts Payable/Receivable
3. Change in Net Working Capital
4. Change in Growth CapEx
5. Settlement payments
What else?
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Portfolio update. Top 5 account for 47%, top 10 for 73%, a decrease from November. Generally, I still plan to concentrate, despite the short-term expansion.
New: $NSSC, $CPRT
Trimmed: $CRM
Added: $AMZN, $VEEV
More detailed version on my substack ()
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What a beautiful compensation structure at $DHR:
Earnings and Revenue growth plus FCF conversion goals for the short term, combined with a long-term goal of 3-3-year average ROIC change.
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Good morning Fintwit. What a beautiful day to buy more $LIFCO. Shares down 10% on 12% net sales growth, 22% EBITA and 27% operating cash flow growth at 22% ROCE. I'll take it 😁
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I honestly find it hilarious how many people are getting scared out of $TXN after NOT doing their research.... I can't take "but the capex" arguments seriously while they announced this in 2021 and reiterated in literally every earnings call...
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What the hell was I smoking one year ago 😂 Look at those larger positions
Portfolio update: Sold $BABA, considering selling $FB/$MRVS because of the changed risk profile.
>50% of my portfolio is in $TDOC, $TCEHY, $JD, Meituan, $AMZN, $XIACF, $BLK, $ASML
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Portfolio update. Top 5 account for 46%, top 10 for 70%
Bought: $CSL
Sold: $GOOGL $GOOG
Trimmed: $MSFT
Increased: $DHR, $ATKR, $TXN
Details on my s..stack (link on profile)
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Loaded up on new books. Finance and (sadly) non-fiction
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I am excited to announce my new youtube channel: Invest Flow.
In cooperation with the german Investflow channel I will bring qualitative stock analysis videos(10-30 minutes) to you, starting off with a $SOFI analysis (link below 👇)
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Continued to concentrate my portfolio.
Top 5 = 49.8%, Top 10 = 77.7%
SOLD = 1/3 of my $GOOG position, added to $MSFT $CSU
BOUGHT = $SOON Sonova
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🚨BREAKING 🚨
Heavy Moat Investments is raising its guidance. We now expect to reach 20,000 followers by the end of the year, up from 15,000.
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$ASML is my highest conviction stock.
They just reported Q4 21 earnings. Let's dive into it 👇
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I don't like to toot my own horn, but this is one of my favorite articles so far
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All of these reports that $AMZN will pay a dividend....how would that make ANY sense? As a company currently burning through cash, dividends would be the last thing on the mind of management.
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Portfolio update. Top 5 still account for 48% $AMZN, $GOOG, $CSU.TO, $ASML, $TXN. Staying concentrated.
Out: $SE, $XIACF
In: $ZBRA, $PRX/ $PROSY
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With all the big earnings let's look at 5 lesser known compounders that beat the market📈
1. Trex $TREX (24% 10 year Total return CAGR)
2. OTC Markets $OTCM (27%)
3. Expeditors of Washington $EXPD (14%)
4. Builders FirstSource $BLDR (31%)
5. Watsco $WSO (19%)
Who would you add?
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Jesus what a quarter from $CPRT. Service Revenue up 18%, Gross profit up 25%, Net Income up 35%.
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I bought a new book thanks to the recommendation of my friend
@FromValue
Can't wait to start reading tomorrow on my way to work 🤑
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Reinvested my $DHR dividend. Looking forward to this.
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I reread a few 100-baggers (
@chriswmayer
) chapters this morning and got reminded about the Wealth Masters fund: A fund focused on owner-operators. It's a good place to find ideas
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Financing done right. Just look at some of these long-term notes $DHR secured.
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"Our free cash flow to net income conversion ratio exceeded 100% for the 31st consecutive year."
Just $DHR things 😁
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High share prices and low share count can be a good proxy to find high quality companies. While it changes nothing fundamentally, it hints at responsible management. 5 examples 📈
1. Berkshire $BRK
2. Mercado Libre $MELI
3. $NVR
4. Givaudan $GIVN
5. $ADYEN
Who else?
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@Oliver_SGM
They also give out almost $2 to their employees and executives as compensation. If we account for that, then we get between $3.9-4.2 (depending if we consider net cash or not) of real FCF yield for owners.
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Valve killing trading 🤝
Bitcoin going to zero 🤝
The entire stock market crashes 95% 🤝
Bankrupt at 22 🤝
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Portfolio update
Bought Frosta AG
Sold nothing
More details on my newsletter as well as a write up on Frosta
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Portfolio update. Top 5 account for 48%, top 10 for 76%, an increase from December.
Bought: $NEM.DE, $ATKR, ($LUM spinoff)
Sold: $SPOT, $FVRR
Find the detailed version on my substack
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Let's play some Devil's advocate 😈. Tell me which of my stocks I should eliminate and why.
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I'm a $FVRR bull and I like how the premarket is reacting.
Let's digest Q3 earnings in a short 🧵👇
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What are some smaller companies led by previous executives at legendary compounders? Some examples are $ATKR $SOON, both led by ex $DHR execs and cloning the DBS. What else is there?
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I find it absolutely ridiculous how many people are selling out of $INTC after they made the BEST decision of the last few years with the dividend cut....Nobody could have looked at the div a few weeks ago and thought "that's looking pretty safe"... numbers rarely lie
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Portfolio update
Added to my new Hermle position, no other buys
Looking to reduce the industrial exposure, currently 33%.
I'm increasing the subscription price on the 7th, so make sure to lock in the current price until then.
More detail on my blog in the link below.
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Does anybody have an opinion on $HBAR / Hedera Hashgraph ?
Seems like a very interesting project with a different concept (Hashgraph instead of blockchain) and with huge backing by the likes of IBM and Google.
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Am I tripping or does $CSCO look somewhat decent? Balance sheet, massive cash flows(10% FCF yield), interesting markets with steady growth. What's the issue?
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2023 has been the best year of my life so far, but not without struggle.
The portfolio performed rocky, but after $ADYEY and $NSSC rerated I managed to close the year on +30%.
More importantly I fell in love for the first time, that's why I published less. Onwards a great 2024!
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$MSCI understands buybacks. 14% of current market cap used for repurchases over the last decade, resulting in a 34% reduction in shares outstanding.
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My crypto group chat after BTC drops 5% after a 70% runup
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Yes I can 🙌
Almost there, can I reach the 10,000 milestone today 🤔
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In 2022 I invested more than 3 times as much as in 2020 and 2021 combined. Buying opportunities like these in my early 20s are phenomenal!
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Sold $ULTA, Bought Pluxee in February.
Added to $MELI, $UFPI, Stemmer Imaging and $AOJ on earnings sell-offs.
More details on my newsletter (link in bio).
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$CRM just announced Q3 earnings.
Great company, with an inspiring CEO
@Benioff
Let's get a quick overview of the earnings 🧵
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$AZO is a perfect example of buybacks done right. In the last decade, the stock returned 582%, beating every index, while only growing its market cap by 252% and its FCF by 195%. AutoZone reduced shares outstanding by 48%, driving FCF/share growth to 450%.
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$ADYEN Position is now +50%. Crazy how fast this one moved upwards
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Large part of the reason why I'm heavily investing into Europe in recent months
European
#stocks
are trading at the biggest discount in history compared to US stocks, measuring the 12-month Forward P/E. In the current outlook, money is flowing into mega caps, while profitable small caps are forgotten, which leaves opportunities, particularly in Europe.
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$RICK with 20% bombshell SSS decline. I'm done buying the company for a while until we see operational improvements. Position at a 7% weighting. Would reconsider if price gets stupid cheap.
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Need some Sunday lecture? Check out my analysis of German hidden Champion Hermle, a leader in CNC Milling machines with 40% ROIC trading at historically low multiples and built to last. Thanks to
@memyselfandi006
for putting it on my radar. Link in my bio
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Check out my new Atkore article on
@SeekingAlpha
. $ATKR is still a very compelling investment in my opinion and I keep accumulating
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Read here why I believe that $DHR will benefit from the current bioprocessing downturn, via
@SeekingAlpha
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Peter Lynch is one of the best investors of all time. He loved to invest in boring and disgusting businesses. In my recent
@SeekingAlpha
article I show why Copart would be a perfect Lynch Stock $CPRT
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Today I am rebranding on Twitter,
@SeekingAlpha
and
@JoinCommonstock
to Heavy Moat Investments.
Here are the reasons why I changed my name 👇
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Should I change my Twitter header to something simple like this quote from Rich Templeton $TXN?
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WTF happened with HelloFresh? Business isn't that horrible, is it?
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