Derek Miller
@DerekMi75263605
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Dad, Husband, Surfer, Music Fanatic, Wrestler, Martial Arts, EQ Financial Expert, Long & Intermediate term, Long/Short, Everything IMHO
Los Angeles, CA
Joined April 2023
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The Investment Process- Risk, Cash, & Investment management
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@JoeyMannarinoUS
They are taken advantage of on a level that is unimaginable to me.
@JoeyMannarinoUS
Have you ever driven Uber or Lyft? You’ll make less than minimum wage and that doesn’t account for gas, wear and tear, etc. Why is there an assumption that all drivers are not US citizens? Perhaps
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@TaviCosta
This is nothing like the 99’ tech bubble where there were 10’s of thousands of .com shell companies with nothing trading on the open market. There’s a very big difference. I’m not telling you that the Nasdaq and the rest of the market have problems but the tech industry is a very
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@volsignals
is the king of memes and this one night take the cake!!
Not my base case (obviously)
but think about how rising price makes you ignore all these concerns- while a hard sell suddenly makes you wonder
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If you haven’t watched “What We Do in the shadows” on HULU - You’re missing out!!
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Technically a 5% move is absolutely in the cards. I have the first price 🎯 at 4950 on the S&P500, which takes us back to Feb 21st 2024.
#GoldmanSachs
is genius! The timing corresponds directly with the inevitable slowing demand in retail as
#taxday
approaches
Goldman flags big moves ahead..
"Our model suggests a 25% probability of +5% move in SPX over next 1m (options price 6% chance) or 24% chance of -5% move (options pricing 10% chance)"
Goldman's GS EQMOVE has been🎯 for a while
Macro & flows suggest volatility coming
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@carolbello860
@JoeyMannarinoUS
#fakenews
they would have to work 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, and average $19.50 per hour. Nice try. Most of these guys average about $13.00 an hour and I KNOW.
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Hmmm… So bullish sentiment is rising except the strong hands that create market action…
They have short-term hedging in place…
Probably doesn’t mean anything😉
GS flagging the return to spot up / vol down as well...
"Market turned bullish post CPI as we traded in a spot up / vol down regime."
"..mostly cheap upside buyers or rolling of calls up & out as we approached new highs"
"..dealers also hit on short-dated hedges"
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@Stock_Pursuit
@TaviCosta
I’m in agreement! $BTC, NFT’s, and Blockchain were the bubble. We may even be closer to 92’ with the upcoming AI bubble. That point where we really don’t even know what’s possible.
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I’m not 100% sure, but this turtle was saying something about forgetting to hedge his positions for the last couple of weeks… Something about buying the dips because of a trend? IDK
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There’s at least a 15% correction of the stock market on the horizon.
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My opinion on the market today and for the foreseeable future.
Bears won’t quit waiting for the market to drop so every time the market gaps up, they pile on. Conversely, the drivers of this market (quants & systematic traders) watch a gap fill and buy buy buy. Sending the
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Being free and weird! I love it! Do your thing folks. They look like they’re having a good time!
Describe what’s going on here without saying…
Drugs
Crazy
Tribal
Hippies
Dancing
White people
Middle Class
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@ThatsRi32924808
@JoeyMannarinoUS
For some it’s easy peasy. For others it’s their only option. Or one of the VERY FEW options they have. Tell me you’ve been privileged without telling me you’ve been privileged. Lol.
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Yes!
Next big week for micro + macro?
April 22-26th
GDP, PCE & 43% of S&P (rhyme-time!)
All as gamma “unclenches”
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Risk increases so people are willing to borrow your money at a lower rate. How could this go wrong?
Consensus is. . .
if US defaults
then US cost of borrowing (yields) goes... down?
Do you see the structural problems with this market?
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@Bishkekskii1991
@741Tarot
@VolSignals
@OptionsDepth
I always believe in playing the gap fill. Especially when we have 7 gaps behind you in the last month that have filled immediately.
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We’re all looking at the current banking crisis and discussing the Fed, deposits, 0% in interest leading investors to seek yield, but why are we pretending we couldn’t see this coming?
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Great insight.
The Senior Loan Officer Survey earlier this week gave more information than many recognized.
If you make appropriate adjustments you see that the aggregate change in lending standards is high over the last 6 months.
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@guideforlovers
She’s missing something in the relationship that makes her feel safe and sexually attracted to him. Does she feel seen, heard, loved, etc. Women are very different from men and we are attracted to each other for very different reasons…
However, this guy will not put up with no
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How is money the equivalent to a crystal ball or the increased capacity to be correct?
#stocks
#stockmarket
#investments
#investing
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Here we finish up the macro view of the
#sp500
($SPY) and the
#nasdaq
($QQQ) What we discover is per shocking. The two indexes have a very different story. If you want to know what it is, you’ll have to watch.
#stockmarket
#tradingstrategy
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@musicandwork
I love hearing different perspectives! There are ways to choose the positions that have the highest probability of success and minimize overall risk? I’m not sure how you choose this position, but clearly the dividend isn’t making up for the falling price.. 🤷🏻♂️
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JPM - Oil🛢️🛢️
As I discussed last week, oil’s demand is expected to drop and guess what? It is! 📉📉
Our high-frequency demand indicators estimate that worldwide oil consumption so far in April averaged 101.0 mbd, 200 kbd below our published estimates.
➡️On a year-over-year
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@zerohedge
I know. Who is still paying those outrageous prices for Starbucks? Their coffee sucks.
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100% Agree and definitely overlooked.
WHAT'S HAPPENING NOW ON THE MARKET?
Earlier I talked a lot about the dynamics of structural short squeezes and AI hype that have supported this
#market
rally. These, along with the gamma effect and
#volatility
suppression by dealers could create market uptrends, even in the face
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Thank goodness Jamie Dimon is willing to take one for the team! 😉😉
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One of the great scenes from the Rocky franchise that taught us about life. RIP Carl Weathers. We are only here for a short time. Don’t wait until tomorrow.
#Rocky
#apollocreed
#thereisnotomorrow
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This is my expectation. It’s clearly a speculators market right now and we haven’t been behaving efficiently since the end of 2023.
via JPM this week:
"With crowding in the Momentum factor in the 99.8%ile... such crowding episodes tend to be followed by an eventual and often sharp correction."
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Let me offer a different perspective…. Bears won’t quit waiting for the market to drop so every time the market gaps up, they pile on. Conversely, the drivers of this market (quants & systematic traders) watch a gap fill and buy buy buy. Sending the market higher, blowing out
Who on planet fucking earth watches a 1% rally fail on good news, then go 0.5% red and thinks to themselves bargain of a lifetime let me get in there and chase the tape higher???? Who???
Somebody essplain this to me.
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I guess this is just normal in Nebraska…Talk about built different! They just keep driving like they’re not driving into a tornado! Does anyone understand this logic?
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LARGE ORDERS (INTERVENTION) are ALWAYS a concern regardless of the market you trade in.
USDJPY dropped as low as 154.04 in the NY Tuesday morning session. Our
eTrading desk confirms this was unlikely to be intervention, since previous instances saw much larger traded
volumes
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$COCOA
#chocolate
This is the sheep following the sheep. If you’ve already learned from making this mistake, don’t fret. But, don’t repeat this!!!
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@VolSignals
That’s awesome! What a beautiful story. He must of been so proud to show you. And, you must have been so proud that he received that award.
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I use bars not candles but that bar/candle was very positive in the short- term. Big candle, finishing at the lows, on big volume, coming off a high. Institutional investors only do things like that to promote fear in retail.
Can anyone else find a weekly candle as ugly as last week when SPX or NDX didn’t see more downside? Just wondering…
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The only reason I don’t understand this is because we are at such high prices. Buying everything in sight when Ukraine was invaded made perfect sense, this does not. This is a very bearish signal to me.
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@JoeyMannarinoUS
Maybe the Pentagon could pass am audit? The last audit they couldn’t account for 5 TRILLION dollars. Let’s start there….
@JoeyMannarinoUS
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RULE # 1 - Cash is a position in the stock market. This is not a casino. Sitting out of the market is sometimes the best course of action.
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Thank goodness
#ChatGPT
CEO Sam Altman told Congress to our limitations on the tech community regarding high tech
#AI
I’m sure no one will hack this
#technology
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#China
$FXI Indexes are rebalanced every year. What does that do to the historical data of the stock market. The world calculations are CONSTANTLY being updated. I wonder why????
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We love rescuing dogs in my family. Pitbulls and chihuahuas are the best! This is our new little girl Iris with her brother Pono.
@MarleysMutts
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@palantirbull1
I lost $45,000 once. I’ve lost a total of $90,000 learning how to trade. If anyone’s ashamed of trading losses it’s because they don’t trade. Period.
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Why did $PTON go from $28.55 to $4.32 as of today when 31 analysts said it was rated a BUY at $28.55?
#tradingdesks
#financialadvice
#financialeducation
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Split right down the middle! 🖖I would have the most aggressive downside. ⏬👎I’m looking at SPX 4400 and NDX 15,500 (you can translate to $SPY $QQQ) 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️
THE 13th TEMPERATURE CHECK for 2024 is now live after that crazy whipsaw week!!! 🚨what a week!!!!!. Here are the weekly accounts below:
@palantirbull1
- looking for several earnings plays coming up here this month! Follow me for more on that. $495 was in fact touched! I did a
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@jacobsaces1
@JoeyMannarinoUS
There are several ways to force people to do things. Remember your very own government in 2020-2021 forcing Peele to get the vaccine? No one was actually forced, but you wouldn’t have a job, house, or food to east of you didn’t.
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100% agree. The benefit that we all have is being small. We aren’t legally obligated to be invested at 90% all of the time. We don’t need to ante up. This isn’t Texas Hold’em. This should be taken advantage of in times of high risk!
I've said it before and I'll say it over and over...
...trading small isn't the disadvantage you think it is.
While we're on the subject-
—maybe SPX intraday price action isn't actually as strong as you think it is, either...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Equally believable is that NASA accidentally destroyed the technology to land on the moon and can’t reproduce it in the last 60 years! Way to try and legitimize Space X
@elonmusk
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Is it possible no one is concerned because we know that this is nothing more than political BS and there’s roughly a zero percent chance there’s a government shut down?
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@willemijn_arjen
That’s certainly possible. That’s something we can evaluate later. I try not to make assumptions and stick to the process, otherwise I may subconsciously create a narrative to prove my assumption correct.
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Conversation about $AAPL and $UPS 4 days ago in a group on
#FB
“UPS is ugly too. Falling stock price in a rising market.
There's someone out there that's been attempting to gap up the price but fails every time... This thing will hit $120-$125 before you can assess it properly.
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$GLD and $SLV here we go!! Institutional selling started today. I’ve started my short positions. Tops take a little time, but any price increase and I’ll add to these short positions. 200% the volume at these high prices… I’ll take that all day and twice on Sunday.
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This matches the behavior of all four major indexes. Prices rising and falling in tandem, gaps occurring in exactly the same places, volume increasing and decreasing simultaneously, etc. This is more evidence that we’re in a speculators market and that equals extreme volatility
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A man that knows what he’s talking about. Missing 3% in 6 months to avoid a 22% drop in market price is a good trade all day and twice on Sundays!
People lose a fuck ton of money going long the final innings of a long in the tooth 🦷 rally. You don’t have to participate.
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The average trader worth anything has blown himself up, on average, 3 times. Me included. 30k each time.
I don’t know a trader of merit that didn’t blow up
Are you sure you want this
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@VolSignals
Are you saying Whoopi Goldberg isn’t the authority on the regime changes in South America!?
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@WifeyAlpha
I’d respond but I don’t know enough about the index. How does the index invest? What are the multiple strategies? How often does it rebalance/adjust/update?
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@found_courage
@PJK4brainhealth
Fight on. Fight to get it repealed. It’s not over Mark. If there’s anything that I’ve learned in my life, it’s that things turn on a dime. I believe you’ve probably learned that lesson as well.
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$AAPL is telling a great story here. When gaps are filling as prices rise, that’s one way to confirm the upward trend. The inverse is also true. As you can see, Apple’s trend has reversed. It was a market leader. Could this be an indicator of what’s to come in the general market?
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@VolSignals
@Chewy11235
@RayZ33388449
There’s short interest, insider buying, insider selling, etc. But that’s all reported after the fact and can’t really be attributed to actual transactions at a specified time period. Distribution and simulation is intuitive and based on price action. Volume Spread Analysis
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$Dell This is meant to say 7-5-2024😁😁😁 Apologies but I’m not redoing the chart. 😁 And, the second picture is correct. Btw, the CEO of
#Dell
just sold almost 1 billion dollars of his own stock in the company.
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🦑🦞LOOK AT THAT SEA OF RED!! 🐙🦐 Now look even closer. 🔭🔭 Since October 23’ there are only 2 other 4 hour periods that match what you’re looking at on 04-04-2024.
➡️➡️Meaning out of 195 4-hour bars only 3 of them contain the level of trading going at the peak prices of $SPX
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I’d be into this!
I am going to give away one free client access to someone that likes, reposts and comments on this post. 🔥🔥
You will be able to run the Wifey Index allocations for one quarter to see if you like it. No strings attached. No pressure.
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I don’t see how this goes any other way. $USO will soon begin rallying hard as well.
Agricultural commodity prices are sharply moving higher again, suggesting that food prices are poised to follow suit.
The commodities cycle is at its early innings and the appreciation in natural resources after to the Covid recession was likely just the initial phase of a much
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Large chunks of volume are created by institutions, correct?
Institutions, along with everyone else want to buy low and sell high, yes?
I’ve pointed out that I believe we have a 15% correct coming in the C
#stockmarket
So, let’s talk about some
#stocks
This is $NOVO - go 👇
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I hope you’re starting to hedge your equity positions because we’re looking at a reversal to 15,500 on the $NDX
#nasdaq
and 4400 on the $SPX
#sandp500
Those levels are about 15% below our current price level. What will this price drop do to your favorite
#stocks
?
#stockmarket
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@defnotjec
@VolSignals
@OptionsDepth
This would also explain some of the volume disparities… Yeah? With the order being matched so quickly the volume sometimes shows almost twice the orders… Do I have this correct?
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@nicholnikk
@JoeyMannarinoUS
In the US we also have something called MINIMUM wage. That means it’s the minimum you can make in a given hour.
@Uber
and
@lyft
drivers often make far less than that.
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UBS - US Equity Strategy
Downgrading Big 6, Maintaining Overweight in Rest of TECH+
“I’m sure tech will be fine if the BIG 6 start dropping in price. AHAHAHA!!! “ - Mr. Burns
Downgrading Big 6 on Earnings Momentum Reversal Investors attribute the run in mega cap stocks to
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@palantirbull1
Or, down 43% in two years, which includes that tiny rally… However you want to look at it. 😂
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@RayZ33388449
@Chewy11235
Distribution is another way of saying BIG money is selling, which leads to a precipitous price drop. This type of distribution shows up on a daily or weekly chart. You can have selling, before a standard market correction for example, that you’ll need to look at a 30 minute chart
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Never go with your gut feeling when it comes to trading or investing
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@OptionsDepth
@VolSignals
Forgive my ignorance but why is that spread the max profit? Because it’s already “In the money”?
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This is a fact. This is why investing in penny stocks is considered insane (hopefully you consider that insanity) and investing in Blue Chips is considered conservative stock investing.
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Wow! I completely agree. However, I had no idea the number was that high…
yet another reason why your core approach should almost always be long, with an awareness of how/when to hedge
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Top 5 performing agriculture stocks JULY 4TH SALE $AGM $USO $CF $INGR
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GOLDMAN SACHS 🌟🌟- performance - week ending April 26 2024🌟🌟
My view 🎑- The shift into Utilities and away from tech is a defensive move typically carried out when institutions expect a larger price move down. 🔻🔻🔻
Performance 🎭
The S&P 500 was up 0.8% 🆙this week.
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Is the stock market, specifically AI, forming a “bubble-like” market drop?
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Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker once said that the one mistake he had made in the late 1970s was not stopping the price of gold from rising as much it did in that period
At 3pm New York time last Thursday there was a US$1.6bn sale of $Gold futures in about three minutes
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