mega-ukulele
@mega_ukulele
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SPX options - ES Futures - mixing TA, options data, and Auction Theory to make moves - every opinion is valid until invalidated
Richmond, VA
Joined March 2014
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Here are some generally followed rules:
- the higher the positive gamma or the lower the negative gamma the more likely of a pull in that direction, you'll notice that if gamma on SPX is over 250m or under -250m there's likely to be a squeeze in that direction. I use this in
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@jamesbulltard7
Back in my early 20's I was 6'2 255 lbs, 21 BMI. I could bench 525, squat 700.. Went to a local MMA gym to train - first fight I was paired with a 180 lbs stick - no joke. He kicked my ass so bad I quit - I never quit anything. Technical skill > Size, Zuck could take both
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Today was another great day. I locked the account as I'm not trying to gain followers. I use this as a trade log, not to gloat (although, I do sometimes because who else am I going to show this stuff too). The goal here is to get as many banana's as possible..
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If anyone is interested I might start to live stream my triple chart set up and make live commentary. I've started talking to my dog about the trade set ups I take. If anyone is interested I'll share the link once it's up.
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Quick🗞️on how I use Market Profile:
Market Profile (MP) vs Volume Profile (VP)
MP = time, how much time is spent at a certain price
VP = volume, how much volume trades at a certain price
Primary TF used is 15m
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Today marks the day I’ve lost 22 lbs solely from cutting out alcohol (mainly beer) from my diet..
As soon as I left my doctors office I went straight to Krispy Kreme.. that’s my damage right there - that was all me… and it felt amazing 🤣🤣
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2023 accomplishments:
- started trading futures
- successfully earned 2x more than my previous career path
- first calendar year trading full time
- learned 3 new successful strategies
- cleaned up execution on options
- greatly improved market analysis on ES and SPX
-
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4th kid due in 2 weeks. Not sure how active I’ll be after that, at least for a month or two. It’s been a good couple of weeks, after a pretty dull month… needed these wins for sure. Excited for the changes and to see what comes next.
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Rest of day will be chop
The itsy bitsy trader got his off in the market,
Then out came the sun and dried up all the rain,
Then the itsy bitsy trader went to play golf ⛳️
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Why is a triple distribution day important to recognize? Because of the stats that go along with it.
- 84% chance of a higher high tomorrow
- potential for reversal T+2 (but probably not tomorrow)
- there's a decent chance ~70% that tomorrow will be a choppy range day
Damn its a good day to be alive - 5 sets on true single prints on the 30m TPO. unreal. This is when all those longs that initiated and liquidated between Thursday and Today rush to pile on top of shorts getting squeezed. Triple distribution??
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My strategy has evolved a bit, new 🧵 soon..
Quick🗞️on how I use Market Profile:
Market Profile (MP) vs Volume Profile (VP)
MP = time, how much time is spent at a certain price
VP = volume, how much volume trades at a certain price
Primary TF used is 15m
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After a day like today, you have to celebrate with the fam, and withdraw 50% of the profits. Otherwise what’s the point?
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Settings for most used indicators: 🧵
Settings for SVP (session volume profile)
Settings for VMP (SamRecio)
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It is a great morning! I have now funded 2/3 college funds for my boys. One more to go and then I can start thinking about the dream car…
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Today pretty much made my month. Missed the breakout rally but found a couple of high percentage setups the last couple of days that paid. Patience is key in this game.. oh hey - no red says in the big account this month!
Decent month. Taking next week off and rolling out early today. I hope y’all made some money!
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My cousin called me today. She has worked on the nyse floor for 150 years minimum. She said stock market won’t exist after tomorrow.
Few
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Hasn’t this account been balls to the wall bearish over the last 6 months and is all of a sudden bullish?? Hide your wife, hide your kids..
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The negative gamma from these puts at SPX 4500 are going to squeeze this market as they become out of the money and de-hedged as we get closer to expiration. This squeeze could be really strong... like SPX 4550 tomorrow. Consider this a HUGE put wall. I always buy put walls
@mega_ukulele
@palantirbull1
Mega, How does call side skew help determine the Monday pop theory. It worked great!
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Figured I’d share after all my efforts today. Came out flat lol cut tomorrows 4500p position early for a loss the scalped puts for 10-20% profits to make up. I was holding some eod puts that saved me.. pretty poor day when I had the right range and bias.. execution is everything
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@palantirbull1
I used to love that place. In bull markets it’s very fun. In bear markets everyone goes broke 🤣
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When I was a less experienced trader, not like I’m a vet - but I’m not a noob, I used to get so mad about losses. Like even 6 months ago missing a trade or losing would rattle me into over trading or doing something stupid. The sooner you really control your losses and just
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The perfect blowoff top involves several days in a row making new ATHs everyday for > 5 tds, and a min of 5% gain. Show me where that’s happened.. I’m waiting for that. Several days of this balance bs just means BTD. Prove me wrong..
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Best 10 min I’ve seen in a long time. No fighting, running, jumping, knocking, screaming, biting or kicking. They got along for an entire 10 minutes tonight! A groundbreaking revolution!
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bitches
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That leave a mark. the all important level has arrived. A hard rejection and I close everything for a loss, or get some consolidation and acceptance above and I’ll lose a little less.
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I think today marks the low of the month
I really wanted excess down to 43 or so.. didnt get it, not a terrible low, but not great either. Whether we get one more poke lower or not doesn't matter that much, what matters is that shitty high that we're about to smash.
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tomorrow gap up to new ath? that would be some funny shit
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Anyone else seeing 5600 by end of week or is that just me..
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Today was rough for me. It doesn’t happen often but having a plan saved me more money in the end. Once I cut my puts and grabbed longs at 5004, I expected 5020 to trade. It seems it did but it took the long route lol I got to hang out with my wife pretty much all day and only
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What if… this is like the October low and another 5% dip doesn’t come for another 6 months ☠️☠️
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Sad to report, shes gotten too big to sit in my lap while trading..
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My wife just told me to expect 30 kids and 40 adults at our house tomorrow for my 6 year olds birthday party’s. I’m scared… how am I not consulted about this before hand 🤣🤣🤣
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I trade my system and take shots I deem acceptable. I made money today on futures today.. my calls are screwed but that’s why there’s a thing called risk management. Everyone gets it wrong sometime- fade this fade that - don’t follow me please.. also >70% of the time Powell pumps
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@stats_feed
Fun question, I broke a maxilla bone, nose and jaw at the same time playing backyard football with friends Crazy pain for about 20 min until it goes numb, then your just hyper aware of everything. Sounds are more clear, I got tunnel vision. It was kind of strange actually.
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Date night with the wife. Dinner and a walk. Better than just about everything..
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Here are the last 18 triple and multi distribution days I could find. 3/18 times had a trend last in the direction of strength for longer than one trading day - 17/18 had continuation in the direction, 14/18 saw trend change on T+2, 1 saw a trend change on T+3. pretty crazy
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Today resulted in a triple distribution day to the downside ALL the way through the previous balance range... You know what that means for tomorrow 🧐. ST top is clearly in.
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@GideyEZ
@The_Real_Fly
Not too far off though lol “So, Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s whats wrong”
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I learned something today - something tangible that will help my win % and profitability.. That's what the live stream is all about, learning and making money...
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I am so ready to be a bear again.. thinking it may be time. 🤞🤞
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Weekends are the best. I get to join on the weekends rather than serve as a pool cleaner during the week!
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I’ve done my part.. 4th ukulele is on his or her way.. and no I’m not a Mormon
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After coming up short the past couple days, I feel a lot better today.. patience is key, and make sure your losses are smaller than your wins - and you will succeed.
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Flipping bias when you’re wrong will save you a lot of money...
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Posted a quick video on single prints and how to catch trend days. Hope its helpful!
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people on on here acting like the last 30 min ramp was normal lol just totally normal.. I was happy with my short plays on NQ, closed it out near the LOD and missed the entire fucking ramp. That was crazy - a full trend day in like 15 minutes. That's hard to trade imo.
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What a beautiful week.. Forgot the in-laws are coming over and I was just told by my wife to help get ready. I'm done for the day but hopefully we get some good new highs. I made base hits to keep me alive. See you next week!!
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someone is hammering 4325 puts 10 cons at a time every time we hit 4396
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Taking the rest of the week off. When the price action doesn’t fit your eye, why force it? No need. See y’all next week!
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If you want in on discord, send me a dm with your user name please. This will be free and invite only.
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My brethren’s and sistrens, today marks the start of another BTFD run. Don’t know how fast or far but 5460 and 5573 will come quicker than most think..
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One of my favorite set ups. This set up failed on Friday which was one of the reasons why I was holding 4480 calls. Playing an 85% win rate play is not stupid.. Menthor Q daily levels
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Calling it - today will be an indecision candle, tomorrow will be a nice red day.
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threw on some puts for friday and some shorts at 4411 - may the Lord be with me
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Technically, did ES just break out of a two year balance today?
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Am I a dumb bull, yes. Do I want new ATH so Andy will stop with the meme, yes. However, decent sell set up on the weekly here. Gotta keep that head on a swivel. My guess is today is flat as a pancake..
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My brethren’s and sisteren’s… the moment we’ve all been been waiting for…..
Might be the bottom? I’m excited to find out. And I celebrate the longing of a great ES 4148!!
May the greenie weenies forever be in our favor and elevate this market to 4550 (probably marks the top
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What’s the best thing you can do after taking a loss? Play Rummikub or do a Sudoku. Get your brain back into problem solving mode, not problem sulking mode.
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Finally a six figure day
@VValt_Disney
thanks for the motivation and for helping me along the way. Couldn’t have done this without you.
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I’ve found that playing monthly options is not nearly as “sexy” as 0 dte, but I really like the fact that even though I left like 50% of my potion on, it’s not worth $0 🤣 still trying to find my groove with the swing plays.. but I’ve improved a lot.
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First small account play. Do I call out the trades I take for this? Strategy is a bit different until I can play SPX.
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Triple distro day in the books! >80% chance to see a higher high tomorrow in RTH. If this is what I think it is, tomorrow should be a range day with a higher high, followed by a trip down to 4458 on Thursday, then maybe a Friday pump.. That's my plan!
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First day having SPX vs Gamma on a line chart. Pretty neat to see the weakness creep in when gamma crossed into negative territory. To my knowledge, there is no options data service with this feature🤔
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Y’all think I’m playing.. I am loading up puts right now lol if I lose, I lose.
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Thanks for joining if you were able too - I thought it was helpful for me to talk through what I was seeing. Kept me out of trouble for the most part.. Excited to keep it going!
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There are many ways to prepare a Thanksgiving Turkey. Baking them is not one of them in my house.
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Best month ever for me. Took three nice paychecks. Let’s go!!
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2024 Predictions by month: just f'n around but the chart model I am following show's this. Then, at the end of next year I can retweet for clout if it plays out
Jan UP
Feb DOWN
March UP
April DOWN
May DOWN BIG
June UP BIG
July DOWN
August UP BIG
September DOWN
October UP
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I like this better for obvious reason. Gap down Monday, hit the low target then rip. Under this 4177 area is where we spent 2 months this year, so that area is heavily auctioned.
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Well this was a damn good week.. catch you on the flip side home slices
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