Ben Kizemchuk
@BenKizemchuk
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Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor at Wellington-Altus. Tweets are not investment advice. DM with your financial planning and investment questions.
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Joined September 2011
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A new credit cycle on the back of 6% deficit spending puts us in league with late 1940s, early 80s, post-gfc. Another economic boom ahead?
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@BilboBuybacks
@kurtsaltrichter
Rules changed in 2019 relaxing hardship withdrawal requirements.
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@fejau_inc
Well said. Would add that beveridge curve is only apparent in hindsight, and that in realtime its very hard to determine where the elbow actually curves.
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Behold the Canadian immigration spike that also resulted in rising unemployment and real GDP growth.
No recession
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@BenRabidoux
Thanks Ben, my post wasn't meant to contra you. Just adding some perspective to others in the replies. There's a growing anti public-sector feeling these days in Canada that I believe is mis-placed. Many of these pub jobs are health and education, critical to our future success
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@wbmosler
USA automotive sales up 6% y/y
It sounds like she's extrapolating Stellantis sales down 15% y/y and inventory issue which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone paying attention.
Meanwhile GM sales +4%, Ford +10%.
DiMartino Booth has been talking about recession since 2021.......
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Econ bear argument now boils down to people aren't desperate enough to file, and somehow that *lack* of desperation is a sign of an impending recession?
Some thoughts on jobless claims:
I think there's a strong possibility that claims are being suppressed vs prior cycles and thus overstating labor market strength. A lot of this is due to efforts by the states themselves since 2009. A few points.
Unemployment insurance used to
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When debt/GDP>100%, inflation will gravitate to the weighted average coupon on gov debt.
1% increase in WAC = 1% more money injected into econ, assuming tax revenue and population remain constant.
When debt>GDP, WAC effectively sets the baseline for money creation.
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There's a lot of negative framing around the rise in public sector employment.
Much of that growth is in healthcare—a sector where more jobs is a good thing for society.
Gov-led growth remains the thematic driver of today's economy, and that's ok.
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"Hard landing" with loans and leases turning higher... lol
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Not that you need another consumption indicator after that strong retail sales print, but here you go......
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@wbmosler
A thread on positive turn in lending 👇
A new credit cycle on the back of 6% deficit spending puts us in league with late 1940s, early 80s, post-gfc. Another economic boom ahead?
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"Job Losers as a Percent of Total Unemployment" shows unemployment is rising not because people are getting fired, but because people are *choosing* to leave jobs and the number of job seekers in increasing. Both signs of a normal and growing economy.
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@McClellanOsc
@MikeWShell
@mark_ungewitter
@mnkahn
@RyanDetrick
@SethCL
Zweig published ZBT in 1986, presumably optimized on data available to that point.
It's reasonable to assume those threshold parameters have changed after 38 yrs of out of sample data.
If "close enough" doesn't work now, the signal was likely over-optimized in the first place.
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Interesting chart plotting SLO Credit Accessibility vs Unemployment Rate, note inverted left axis
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@choffstein
1) Everyone is looking at the same *diffusion* indices
2) People automatically associate deflation with recession
3) People not understanding the massive global fiscal intervention from 2020-2021 is still working its way through economies
4) Fiscal dominates Monetary
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@nfergus
The historical examples you cite operated currency systems backed by precious metals.
Debt service physically emptied the treasuries of those metals, leaving less for defense spending.
Sovereign issuers of fiat don’t have that problem.
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August FINRA margin balances still no suggestion of euphoria, far from it in fact
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Honestly this was so predictable, and yet vehemently denied as even possible by so many.
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Federal government current tax receipts still growing y/y reflecting econ growth
Not recessionary
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There's a lot of negative framing around the rise in public sector employment.
Much of that growth is in healthcare—a sector where more jobs is a good thing for society.
Gov-led growth remains the thematic driver of today's economy, and that's ok.
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What looks like a “recession” is a mid cycle moderation after massive fiscal spend with some demographic change spin on the ball.
Not that hard to figure out folks.
And if you get stuck just remember kalecki levy source of profits ;)
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Generational level of pessimism driven by algos
lol, YouTube algorithm is literally telling me "if you made a video called 'WHAT'S COMING IS WORSE THAN A RECESSION' it would go viral"
in case you wonder why there's a vibecession...
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Today's rising unemployment rate is driven by shifts in the labor force by immigration, much like the late 1960s and 70s when more women entered the workforce. It's not about job loss—it's about a changing composition of who’s participating.
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Retiring Boomers are finally closing a huge number of net unprofitable small businesses, improving productivity and structurally changing *who* is demanding labour (fiscal dominance favours big biz).
At the same time labour force is changing with immigration.
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@profplum99
@fleckcap
@mntcreep
@dampedspring
idk. the worst of 9/11 comp was -15%, which is rather commonplace in terms of bad declines.
also, recall 1914 was liquidity issue to pay for war, resolved by selling a gold-backed currency to obtain gold/money. under fiat deficit spend, u get a printing press.
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By the time continued claims goes negative y/y it will already be obvious via other econ data
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Break Away Momentum will trigger today assuming equities don't fall apart
@WalterDeemer
@RyanDetrick
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Energy-backed currency is inherently pro-cyclical, restricting supply in downturns, thereby impeding recovery.
Fiat in a trust-based system is designed *for* recovery.
Maybe what we really need is to solve the trust problem and not the currency?
The thermodynamics of industrial capitalism demands energy to keep growing.
But our economy isn't setup to be an energy-producing machine, it’s a money printing machine, money backed by nothing.
Fiat currency and its implications have been a disaster for the human species 🧵
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Why are overtime hours increasing if we're in a recession?
Because we're not in a recession!!
h/t
@WildernessStoic
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@profplum99
@TgMacro
He's right though.
Nothing like this has every happened before. Everyone's mental model is confined by 1980-2020.
It is a new paradigm to consider, ongoing deficit spend + passive/RE inelasticity = major upside potential.
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As claims trend lower, the Fed’s window to justify a rate cut for employment reasons is closing. Soon, they’ll have to acknowledge that the punch bowl of higher rates = spending has fueled the economy—and it’s time to take it away.
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"Job Losers as a Percent of Total Unemployment" shows unemployment is rising not because people are getting fired, but because people are *choosing* to leave jobs and the number of job seekers in increasing. Both signs of a normal and growing economy.
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Now imagine this employment report gives reason to a Fed pause (or even hike??), which would effectively just keep shoveling money into discretionary spending growth by top two income quintiles.
Unreal.
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Canada mortgage loans appear to have troughed y/y and now working towards an upturn.
Appears a Canadian econ catastrophe has once again been averted
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Philly delivery time index tends to lead inflation.
Yet to see if this is CPI normalizing or if CPI will rise in response.
Hunch is this does not bode well for a rate cut.
However, it does not appear the econ needs a rate cut to maintain healthy growth.
Not that you need another consumption indicator after that strong retail sales print, but here you go......
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Walgreens, CVS, Rite Aid…
These are not consumer spending / retail slowdown.
They are casualties of insurers and PBMs eating their lunch.
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Econ survey data is the Fed's own memes reflecting back upon itself now taken as fact.
It is totally meaningless, delphic babble.
Every recession has always been "two quarters" away.
The real econ is the 6% deficit spend, now being joined by credit growth.
@BickerinBrattle
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@INArteCarloDoss
Where was this tweet mid-May when GDPNow was running at +4%?
Maybe a good idea not to put too much faith into an unreliable ISM?
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Narrator: The actual price of lumber did not, in fact, collapse.
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@fkronawitter1
On background... somewhere there exists a paper concluding Philly's Current Delivery Time is one of the more reliable leading indicators of CPI.
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Keep it simple:
S&P500 Daily avg ror when VIX <20: 0.11%, 57% +ve
S&P500 Daily avg ror when VIX >20: -0.08%, 48% +ve
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Today's 2023 Consumer Expenditures report shows higher income quintiles account for nearly all the spending growth. Same as ever, no recession until that declines.
Also, how did lowest quint entertainment spend increase so much during a "recession"?
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And all the rando anon reddit and X accounts finally get to say they're right? Feels like a long shot to me.
Gov can and will keep printing until morale improves either way. Their tools are not like our tools
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In terms of generational bull markets, it looks like we're just getting started
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Does anyone remember in 2019 when this was called a "hot" labor market?
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Now the question is will Canada see that huge 1975-style lift in real GDP growth as immigrants produce work?
Looks to me like we're on the verge of something great here
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@BobEUnlimited
If anything, that prevailing deep pessimism installs a generational "pain trade" bias upwards
We'll see where sentiment goes from here
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@McClellanOsc
Lumber contract is not a great indicator of anything due to serious liquidity issues and a reformulation of the contract a few year ago.
This is a better lumber series tracking the prices that producers receive for goods, rather than the prices consumers pay.
and it's fine.
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You won’t understand the source of today’s North American unemployment until you understand the source of Australia’s structurally higher unemployment for decades — immigration.
Real GDP growth the whole way through. Productivity gains as well.
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C&I Loans likely go positive in July y/y
Bank credit rising
It's a new credit cycle
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Nice revision :)
Seeing as how Atlanta Fed is beating BEA at it's own GDP game, this bodes well for the actual data.
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Canada CPI is likely to increase with the rail shutdown as supply chains disrupted.
Whether BoC sees this "inflation" as a reason to pause cuts or continue them remains to be seen....
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Growth rates of continuing and initial claims both continue trending lower, as is characteristic of economies recovering from a slowdown or recession
The thing that's really interesting... is both of these 1985 and 1995 periods saw similar growth rates of initial claims to just-about-recessionary-but-not-quite levels... before declining.
Just like we're seeing today.
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What if the expected "AI productivity boom" is more about the share of experienced workers than technology?
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A few gems from Hyman Minsky's "Global Consequences of Financial Deregulation" 1986
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A new credit cycle on the back of 6% deficit spending puts us in league with late 1940s, early 80s, post-gfc. Another economic boom ahead?
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If gig work is responsible for the rise in EINs and business formation, then why are gig workers not filing NAICS code under "Transportation and Warehousing"?
Why are business applications growing in nearly every sector but transportation?
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Today feels a bit like Christmas 2018.
And just as many presents on the way for patient investors
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These people aren't lining up for "jobs".
They're lining up for skills training at career colleges, with job placement programs.
They need skills before they can work. This is not a recession.
It is an indication of the productivity boom to come once they acquire those skills.
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Millennial household formation spending
+
Boomer discretionary spending
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@Andercot
Energy-backed currency is inherently pro-cyclical, restricting supply in downturns, thereby impeding recovery.
Fiat in a trust-based system is designed *for* recovery.
Maybe what we really need is to solve the trust problem and not the currency?
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It seems that nearly everywhere you look, we're dealing with generational levels of pessimism in spite of hard data.
Why?
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$MAR Marriott hotels does not sound like business travel is slowing. Leisure travel overseas does not sound like a consumer that's cutting back
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Personally not big on m2 as an indicator on anything but if you were macro bear crying over it in 2021-22 you should be singing praises over it now... and yet crickets
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1995: Delinquency rate rising after 7 hikes in 1 year. No recession.
2024: Been there done that... next
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That window 👇 is now closed.
To prevent inflation, Fed will need to acknowledge their current understanding of the stimulative effects of rate policy is flawed and is working in the opposite direction.
That's unlikely to happen, and so off we go into neverland.
As claims trend lower, the Fed’s window to justify a rate cut for employment reasons is closing. Soon, they’ll have to acknowledge that the punch bowl of higher rates = spending has fueled the economy—and it’s time to take it away.
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@profplum99
Yes, both entirely reasonable and congruent with historical experience domestic and abroad. Though I disagree with the term "unsustainable" as political meme.
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If a fintwit account has over +50k followers, then you can consider it is the retail consensus opinion.
It may sound and feel and espouse to be non-consensus to the consensus, but that's the point.
It is the beauty pageant.
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There are some shades of 1985 in the current post-COVID19 economic recovery, imo.
An interesting tidbit on employment cycle 👇
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Top income quint a clear beneficiary of higher interest rates
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Notice much of the regular seasonality trades aren't working anymore. Presidential cycle too. Opex becoming meaningless.
Market just wants to go up.
My guess is sell Rosh Hashanah buy Yom Kippur won't work either.
The result of fiscal flow + inelastic market.
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Re: private credit growth
"Non-bank lending and the transmission of monetary policy"
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ADT5 triggered yesterday >70
from Wayne Whaley's Planes Trains and Automobiles
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New Paper on Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt
Fiscal transfers can "lower short-run fiscal multipliers but sustain aggregate consumption for longer"
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Total Net Worth Held by the Bottom 50%
Q1 2024 +6%
Not typical of recession.
More like new credit cycle building
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@McClellanOsc
Further, if you want to look at housing input costs vis-a-vis recession, you might want to reference net inputs to residential construction instead of just lumber.
Again, fine.
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