fejau
@fejau_inc
Followers
54K
Following
16K
Media
3K
Statuses
16K
Shitposts, macro, crypto. Host @forwardguidance
Canada
Joined May 2015
We're about to experience a sovereign debt crisis caused by the Europe energy crisis, all a capstone on the 100 year fiat expirement. Here's how I think the next 6-8 months go down:
741
7K
25K
As the game theory plays out, our goal is to find the optimal moment to long the fuck out of our favourite crypto ponzis. I see many takes from people who think QE is never coming again but it will, just under other names. Get ready to max long after this coming flush.
172
249
4K
Glad I didn't invest in that cryptocurrency stuff, I heard it's down today
34
174
3K
UK 10 year bond chart got to be one of the craziest things out there right now. Shit is breaking.
89
391
2K
Kinda sucks that economic policy was like 3% of this entire debate…. Really shows where the media is at. 90% of it is rage bait dividing questions on things barely relevant.
67
209
2K
The game theory I've ascribed to this makes me think that the West is too far deep into this mess to give into Putin and would rather print the difference. The saying goes no government ever willingly went broke through austerity. They will always resort to printing.
15
135
2K
bro is just rawdogging inflation huh.
Democratic Vice Presidential pick Tim Walz owns zero stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. He also holds no other securities or private investment, as well as holds zero real estate. He only holds state pensions.
39
80
2K
In conclusion, I think we're at the end of a major sovereign bond bubble and this energy crisis is the catalyst. The Fed will be forced to stimulate or risk full implosion of the monetary system. What will be unique about this time Oil will still be going higher, not lower.
31
158
2K
Putin strongarms Europe by shutting off Energy pipelines, causing a spike in prices. This causes energy prices to skyrocket in Europe which is a major component of CPI - This causes inflation to explode higher.
39
86
2K
As CPI explodes higher, electricity prices get passed onto consumers. Eventually, at the risk of civil unrest/revolution over refusal to pay this, Euro government has two options: . 1. Give into Putin and let him have Ukraine and stop the sanctions to get energy flowing again.
31
81
2K
2. Decide to deploy price caps on energy for consumers and print the difference. To achieve this I believe ECB needs to instill yield curve control to keep sovereign bond yields in tact and avoid fragmentation of EU sovereign bonds.
37
87
2K
Printing the difference through YCC is going to cause DXY to explode higher because 58% of DXY is the Euro. DXY to $150 dollar milkshake theory type shit.
13
83
2K
It’s in trump’s best interest to cause as much uncertainty as possible to bid up bond yields and dollar as high as possible before he begins his term to both use it as a negotiation tool and provide major tailwinds for assets under his presidency.
85
139
2K
This dollar wrecking ball will cause emerging markets to begin potentially defaulting on their debt, forcing them to sell their US bonds to buy US dollars to defend their currencies.
20
91
1K
As EM's sell US bonds to amass dollars to defend their currencies, US bond yields will explode higher causing systemic risks in US markets as everything is priced off US treasuries. Something will break.
7
71
1K
Much better. Market fully cleansed now, not just BTC like last time.
34
94
1K
the level of degeneracy we're about to experience is going to make 2021 look like value investing
59
117
1K
Just put the supplements in the bag brother.
The best traders I know are shorting as much Solana as they possibly can at $230.
39
28
1K
Oh…. Oh…. My.
103
39
1K
If you guys understood how irresponsible and unhinged the macro situation is about to get you wouldn’t be selling the most sensitive to excess liquidity digital assets in the world because the price broke your imaginary technical analysis lines.
49
123
1K
The Fed then has two options to fix this which I believe they will explore both. 1. Swap lines with ECB and BOJ (they launched a standing swap line facility in July 2021 to make this easy.
9
48
1K
The grift in the next 4 years will make SPACs look like value investing
26
73
1K
t bills about to outperform eth LMAO.
ETH is up 4% ytd.
45
59
1K
Larry Fink went on cnbc and was like I’m gonna buy all the bitcoins I can and some people that have logged onto this application everyday since 2017 were like. Nah I’m bearish.
21
71
991
It's important to view the dot plots not as a future forecast of a events, but a psychological tool used to try and talk the market into an outcome it wants today, not in the future. Fed forced itself into cutting this week so is using a hawkish 2025 FFR dot plot forecast to.
43
98
986
Okay, I’ll do a high level 101 of the yen carry trade situation. I don’t trade fx so there’s stuff in here I may not get perfect fyi but should give you the gist. In the 1990s Japan saw a major economic and market boom. Eventually, a mega bubble occurred that led to a major.
73
144
968
They can then also use their new standing repo facility to provide overnight loans to stabilize funding/treasury markets on short duration bonds. (they're making sure the NY fed staff knows how to do this).
NY FED- DESK INTENDS TO CONDUCT SMALL VALUE OVERNIGHT REPO OPERATION WITH PRIMARY DEALERS AND STANDING REPO FACILITY COUNTERPARTIES. NY FED - BID SUBMISSION PROCESS WILL BE CONDUCTED FROM 10:30 AM ET TO 10:45 AM ET ON THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2022.
3
46
906
This allows them to easily lend dollars via central bank reserves to these central banks which will help bring down DXY and stabilize sovereign FX markets.
4
38
902
alright everyone pray that more people in america are unemployed than expected tomorrow so our fartcoin can go up.
56
51
922
Crypto market feels similar to December 2021 when everyone was in denial about the rate hike cycle beginning . but perfectly mirrored to easing. oh sweet midcurvers.
32
70
905
The usage of this swap line facility and repo facility is net stimulative and will cause DXY to come down and markets to stabilize (though I believe everything will be nuking during this time as correlations go to 1 as insties unload risk to get their VaR's in line).
1
37
830
With the BoJ put in place, the Fed fully set for at least a 25bps cut in September, and other Global CB's already cutting, we have now reached vol controller nirvana: a global coordinated easing cycle. When all global central banks ease at once, the rate differentials remain.
26
107
879
Everyone will forget the jawboning in 5 days. Pause in Jan been priced in for a while. No meeting in February. This is max FOMC attention for the next while. Easy financial conditions will continue to drive things once the jawboning gets digested. Same as it ever was.
33
61
889
Gold is living in the future. Now if you degens can stop getting overlevered on perps we can let this thing play out
27
93
875
Market showing its hand how much of the DXY has baked in tariffs fears based on reaction today to headline on gradual tariff implementation. Any sign of reasonableness inauguration onward will send yields and dollar lower.
67
78
884
We’re getting rate cuts into a rebounding economy. I need more gold and bitcoin.
43
61
832
Understand liquidity and you’ll understand everything. It’s literally the only signal I use
46
125
798
US government needs higher inflation to lower debt to gdp, but not too high that it forces the fed reaction function back in pukes markets. The 2% target is done, we live in a 3-5% world now. Welcome to financial repression, it’s why bitcoin was invented. We’re in the end game.
29
107
792
Derisking pre-fomc into a meeting where the hurdle to surprise the market hawkish is incredibly high and sofr curve has already priced in the most hawkish of potential paths in 2025?. Gee I wonder what happens next.
63
63
803
My job was to not let you get fudded out of your bags by shitty macro takes. We made it now bros. I don’t have a lot of edge from here on out until I think the macro turns and it’s time to sell but I’m excited to ride the wave 🫡🫡🫡🔥.
76
30
799
did we just repeat april lol.
IRAN CONCLUDES ACTION UNLESS FURTHER ISRAELI RETALIATION.
60
21
789
Digging more into the perp data:. - OI and funding is back to where we were a couple days ago. This was not the full classic liquidation cascade we often see. You can see this in how many alts barely budged. - This ramp in OI was people opening longs on 100k breakout leading to
41
78
788
all that noise for just another higher low . we're in a trending market you just don't know it yet
34
45
738
Bessent is at the crypto ball?. Holy fuck lol.
14
39
731
And there it is, another clip of USD unloaded by Ministry of Finance in Japan. Wild times we're living in!
19
65
691
Update: Much healthier breakout this time round.
Digging more into the perp data:. - OI and funding is back to where we were a couple days ago. This was not the full classic liquidation cascade we often see. You can see this in how many alts barely budged. - This ramp in OI was people opening longs on 100k breakout leading to
18
40
715
Random prediction for fun this week:. hot CPI print that surprises based on tariff purchases frontrunning in December leads to capitulatory move in long bond yields, 10y peaks at 4.95 leaving all the 5% watchers sidelined and that's the blow off top. let's see!.
45
19
712
All the smartest macro folks I follow very closely think the best analogue to today's economy is the mid-late 1990s. Fascinating confluence.
65
28
706
Oh, you thought you were trading tech? .You thought you were trading discounted cash flows of companies? . Nope. Ever since COVID it's all just been one big trade: Net Liquidity (white line) i.e Fed balance sheet - RRP - TGA. It's . All . One . Trade.
20
92
660
How many times has ct flipped between cycle has topped and generational supercycle this week?.
71
41
700
remember at the beginning of the last easing cycle when gold (white) surged first while bitcoin (red) slowly chopped higher to then catch up a few months later?
31
71
669
Today is a good example of how from the fed trying to obsess over controlling every narrative with their insane jawboning and forward guidance in an attempt to dampen volatility, they instead cluster the volatility and it unwinds in violent fashions like it did today. Not a.
31
44
660
So the thing about the whole "Oh its normal during a BTC run that ETH bleeds while BTC runs itll catch up soon". Is that unlike in 2020 the last dominance run, SOL/BTC (a shorthand view at alt L1's at the time) is no longer correlating with ETH/BTC. As you can see, in 2020 ETH
118
66
650
4 hours nonstop of ct yelling about alt season just for the move to reverse lol.
55
17
635
The thing that people are gonna fuck up now is move the goal posts and say this is bad because less cuts. Nope. Fed will still cut in November but less panicky and more likely 25. We’re in a good news is good news regime cause inflation has moderated and fears of recession took.
38
63
625
what if
73
63
614
Been wondering what’s made crypto so weak. Tons of insiders frontrunning mt gox disbursement announcement makes WAYYY more sense. IMO that probs means that nuke on the announcement was the final pricing in. I continue to view the macro front as quite bullish so I’ve been.
41
79
599
Resilient gdp and no recession paired with monetary easing and inflation that is probably going to not be an issue until later parts of 2025 is going to make for the ideal environment for crypto and gold. I truly believe this.
27
59
609
if only you knew how silly things are about to get. insane new home sales print hahahah . cutting rates into a 6% of GDP fiscal deficit and re-accelerating economy is gonna bite us in the ass very hard in 2026 but im gonna make money in the mean time. own hard assets
29
51
601
Non - US countries are so fucked right now. Wrecking ball season . Own US risk assets (I include crypto in this) or nothing at all
28
32
608
I love how every classic fud since 2014 comes back every bull run.
$3.6 trillion of cryptocurrency assets are, or soon will be, vulnerable to hacking by quantum computers.
26
12
597
My plan for my bags is to sell when the macro looks bad. Hope that helps 👍.
29
21
598
Financial conditions are now nearly as loose as they were during the 2021 frenzy. Keep dancing but make sure you have an eye on the door for when the party ends.
30
41
594
Why would Elon, a major endorser of Trump’s campaign which is very pro crypto, decide to nuke Tesla bitcoin holdings 30 days before election. Significant lack of critical thinking going on here.
101
24
587
i cant. what the fuck.
*TRUMP'S 'CRYPTO ADVISORY COUNCIL' EXPECTED TO SETUP PROMISED BITCOIN RESERVE: REUTERS. Source: DB | Coins: BTC.
19
14
589
Slowdown coming in Q1 right as Fed decides to be hawkish. Risk assets pay the price. Welcome to macro.
US CHICAGO PMI ACTUAL 36.9 (FORECAST 43, PREVIOUS 40.2) $MACRO.
37
28
586
50bps cuts and then a print like this the next day 😂😂😂 silly season
20
35
569
USD Central bank swap lines are the wrong tool for the ongoing global currency crises that are emerging and shows how the Fed is once again fighting the last war, not the emerging one. A thread and thought experiment!
29
114
544
These CT influencers are unserious man. Calling for goblin town and its over a week ago to calling for $1m BTC the next. So important to find your own conviction and not try and export that work to randoms on the internet.
$BTC now being rumored to be pushed forward as a national asset held as treasury reserve as a platform for many politicians . Whether they are successful or not in the first attempt, doesn’t matter because BTC now has an extremely visible asymmetric upside scenario. If.
41
30
549
Also, random point, it’s weird that @RaoulGMI gets so much shit from ct. I was subbed to real vision for years and got into crypto from him in 2018. Learned a lot of macro from him. He’s one of the very few macro folks that faded the recession and was bullish at the bottom. He.
63
11
534
Never forget the monkeys talking about the cycle being over a week ago.
33
35
554
Without fractional reserve banking we would still be living in the Stone Age and productivity growth (one of the key drivers of wellbeing in an economy) would have been a fraction of what it is today. This obsession by some maxis to live in a world without debt is naive at best.
The entire idea of fractional reserve banking needs to die. Banks exist for one purpose only -- as a safe place to store money. The idea of lending out that money is a subterfuge created by bankers to provide them a business model. I don't see lending existing 30 years from.
87
44
549
So after trying to talk hawk to the market and act tough they bring out the most obscenely dovish FOMC member Goolsbee onto CNBC to say some nice things and whipsaw us in the other direction. Are you having fun in this era of excessive forward guidance anon?.
27
27
545
For the first time since March 2023 the 2yr is above the Fed Funds Rate. Market is now beginning to marginally price a hike in the next 2 years.
42
46
539
You can tell how clueless crypto people are by thinking this is news. Holy fuck lmao i can't. Please read the Federal Reserve act if you're gonna have an opinion on the SBR. It's either a congress bill to pass it, or through the ESF via Treasury. My god people.
POWELL: FED NOT ALLOWED TO OWN BITCOIN: BBG.
19
42
539
I’m done man. Ethereum was a mistake. Maybe in 2029 this chart will bottom.
70
7
541
Thanks for flying cabal airlines . Tons of ct influencers missed the goat entry and tried to run it up on this forced version. Many such cases innit @bulltrapper0
52
27
531
The tourists will never understand what we went through when the entire industry imploded and there was just 50.Of us left speculating on racing hamsters
35
43
534