Every time we see an inverted yield curve paired with a flattening Fed funds rate, the U.S. economy is heading into a recession. When the Fed starts cutting rates and the yield curve flips positive, we're on the brink of a recession and a major market crash. This market currently has an 85% correlation to the summer of 2007. This time is no different.

Everyone’s waiting for Fed cuts—but they’re missing the key triggers. The Fed won’t move unless Core PCE drops below 2.6% or unemployment surges past 4.3% toward 5%. Until then, policy remains tight, and stocks face a headwind. Full breakdown 👉

Noted 📝

@unusual_whales Unless the definition of a store of value has changed, anything that can drop 80% doesn’t maintain its value. If the definition now applies only to very long time horizons, then sure—but you wouldn’t keep 100% of your liquid savings in Bitcoin.

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The next CPI print is likely to come in hot. This could mark the top before a move lower in March. The market isn’t priced for it. Here’s what I’m watching and how to prepare 👉

Canada is 25X the size of California but has roughly the same population—and it’s entirely dependent on the U.S. If the U.S. severed ties, Canada’s economy would be in shambles within months. Canada’s military: 65K personnel (5% the size of the U.S.) U.S. military: 1.3M personnel (2,000% larger than Canada’s). In a real conflict, Canada wouldn’t be a player—it would be a spectator. This isn’t opinion. It’s math. I do not think this is going to happen nor do I want it to happen, but under the right sequence of events, it’s definitely possible.

@VirtualDaveyD @unusual_whales 😂 How tough do you feel hiding behind a fake account?

@NYJets2017 I am sorry you are having a bad day. I hope your situation improves.

@margat04721048 I agree to a certain point but the market is going to react based on the data we have available to us today 👊

@NYJets2017 And I’ll say it again next month 🤫

@OliverC1980 And I’ll say it again next month 🤫

@UdallMelvin Given the market is driven off of sentiment, narratives matter 👊

@beal_trevor I’m just making a thesis based on conditions. 👊

@WeirderRieces 👍

@OliverC1980 💯

@makak0x Thanks! 👊

@rndo_calrisian Appreciate you

@GauzJack2517 💯

@__naivetrader__ Appreciate it 👊