Ben Rabidoux
@BenRabidoux
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Canadian housing/macro/credit...occasionally tweets about fishing. Founder of North Cove Advisors and @EdgeREAnalytics. DMs open. Equal opportunity blocker.
Ontario, Canada
Joined October 2010
What’s the downside to a massive effort to attack fentanyl production in Canada? . Worst case: we have less fentanyl and a trade war that was coming regardless. Best case: we avoid a trade war and have less fentanyl . Can we at least try before lighting the economy on fire?.
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As Brampton, Ont., aims to curb illegal rentals, records show local councillor co-owns non-compliant property.
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Canada's population grew by 1.2 MILLION people in the past year as of Q2. All for thoughtful immigration, but this is an absurd, crazy, irresponsible number.
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CBC casually dropping LMIA fraud into this story. Freeze the entire program except agriculture, overhaul it, put in proper checks and balances, audit prior applications and drop heavy monetary fraud charges on the bad actors. @MarcMillerVM @PierrePoilievre
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Heartbreaking what's happened in Jasper. This was from 2018. You cannot leave vast swaths of standing dead timber and not expect a major fire in time. Our forests are being horribly mismanaged.
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That’s my chart. Glad I can contribute to the discussion.
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US population: ~333 million.Population growth in the past year: 944,000. Canada population: ~39 million.Population growth in the past year: 703,000.
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This crazy chart is now updated to include today's 🇨🇦 GDP release. Another quarterly decline in Canada
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There was never a promise of PR. Take it up with college recruiters and immigration “consultants”. We must not entertain the idea that it would be just to abandon point-based CRS system and give PR to 3 MILLION temporary residents. That is NOT in the best interest of Canadians.
Families in Punjab have borrowed, sold and sacrificed to send their kids to school in Canada. Now Ottawa’s new rule has shattered their Canadian dream.
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Enough fentanyl to kill every Canadian 3x over, only one person arrested, media silent on it. And we pretend Trump is crazy to worry about our border security….
The largest drug bust in Canadian history occurred just weeks ago in Faulkner, BC—allegedly linked to the Mexican Sinaloa cartel. Only one man has been charged. I'll be covering Gaganpreet Randhawa's Thursday Surrey bail hearing as part of my "Low Information Nation" docuseries.
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Canada's runaway temporary resident population hits 3 MILLION last quarter after upward revision to prior quarters. Now account for 7.2% of total population. @MarcMillerVM and @SeanFraserMP were asleep at the wheel. they're now having a hard time regaining control
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Canada’s population grew by 1.3m at peak, nearly 1/3 coming from India. That’s the equivalent of nearly another London, ON from just one country in one year. Call me crazy but maaaaybe we should better screen for bad actors and extremists from ANY country before we do that again.
The violence at the Hindu Sabha Mandir in Brampton this afternoon is completely unacceptable and must be condemned. No one should feel unsafe in their place of worship. Thank you to @PeelPolice for their quick response and for helping to keep our communities safe.
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Canada is a unserious country led by unserious people.
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Expect these protests to spread across the country over the next couple yrs. Unpopular opinion but I dont believe the right to protest should be extended to residents of other countries who are here as guests. Too much leeway for bad actors to stir dissent
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This is stunning. TD should have stuck to doing this stuff in Canada where there's no real enforcement.
BREAKING - SHOCKING - CRIMINAL ORGANIZATION: TD Bank (@TDBank_US) Pleads Guilty to Laundering Millions for Drug Cartels in Colombia: Justice Department Imposes $3 Billion Fine as Bank Employees Become Criminals Themselves, Using ATM Debit Cards to Take Their Cuts and Accept
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Sri Lanka moves to organic fertilizers, collapses domestic agricultural production. Trudeau, listening to the same woke environmentalists who collapsed Sri Lanka, moves to reduce fertilizer use by 30%. To quote @DoombergT, we are governed by dangerously unserious people.
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Whoa! 🇨🇦 population up 865,000 y/y and 360,000 last quarter alone. Let's drop all the political correctness and have a real discussion about this. I have no idea what the "right" number is, but this is a massive amount of growth that probably sets up for a future housing crisis
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This is insane, but hear me out, protesters. There's still a loophole. Crowd-fund $ to buy property, then transfer ownership to numbered company whose beneficial owner is the convoy organizers. Done! It's perfect since the feds WONT FUCKING AUDIT money laundering in real estate.
Oh my fucking goodness: Canada's Deputy Prime Minister says that, as part of the Emergencies Act, they are broadening Canada's "Terrorist Financing" rules so that they cover crowdfunding platforms and cryptocurrencies to the Canadian Freedom Convoy
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More long-overdue tightening. Reunification visas were hard to justify. Avg age of Canadians is 41 yet nearly 70k PRs in 2023 were given to ppl older than that, many coming via reunification. Bringing grandma does not help address Canada’s aging population. Best & brightest only.
#REPORT: Canada will not accept new parent and grandparent permanent residency sponsorship applications until further notice.
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A short thread on why Canada's asylum system is being rampantly abused and why @MarcMillerVM needs to get on top of it. Note that total asylum claims have jumped so far this year. 1/
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These “protests” are getting insane. Canadian citizens have the right to peaceful assembly, but should that right extend to non-citizens? Are we allowing hostile foreign actors sow dissent and cause unrest?.
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Globe and Mail editorial cartoon. Everyone knows it's a serious problem but no meaningful actions taken by the federal government. Why not?. cc @cafreeland @JustinTrudeau @PierrePoilievre @rcmpgrcpolice @FINTRAC_Canada
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BoC cuts by 0.25%. Tiff greeting over-leveraged condo investors after the announcement
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Jail time for immigration consultants and any employer found complicit in this sort of shit!. This is a stain on Canada and a slap in the face for all immigrants who came here legitimately and followed all rules. @PierrePoilievre @adamchamb @MarcMillerVM
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"You've lost your fking minds, government of Canada. You don't understand that you've made it possible to buy $1.5MM homes with fake income documents, and without an effective checking system. there's a greater incentive to commit fraud than ever".-@ronmortgageguy.
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Congrats to @ronmortgageguy, @MortgageProsCan and other industry good guys who were pushing for this measure. Say a prayer for Brampton
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They only started verifying acceptance letters last YEAR 🤦♂️. @MarcMillerVM @SeanFraserMP need to be turfed over this -->. More than 10,000 foreign student acceptance letters may be fake, says top immigration official
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Attorney General says final cost of ArriveCan app impossible to know due to poor project management. Can't track the number of people coming into the country. Can't track expenses on a basic project. Can we please get someone in Ottawa who can run a basic spreadsheet?.
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SHUT THIS PROGRAM DOWN NOW. Fraud is rampant. Find these "recruiters" and jail them for fraud. They have sold out their fellow Canadians.
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Canada's labour force data is even softer than headlines suggest
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Quick Canadian RE sentiment check. Mental gymnastics around negative cash flow are wild. From a landlord FaceBook group
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PEI international student protest leader:. “I own land in Canada…you make me buy land but I cannot come back to my own place to visit?”. I hope this isn’t resonating with policy makers. There is no promise of PR. All can apply, but nothing is guaranteed
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There were more LMIAs issued in Canada since the start of 2023 than new payroll positions created. Can @R_Boissonnault or @MarcMillerVM explain this? . Is there a better answer than rampant fraud in the LMIA program?. @PierrePoilievre @adamchamb
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Canada's population grew by 1.3 million in the past yr. Payroll employment (excluding public admin) was up 76k over the past yr. This is a disaster for Canada's labour market, particularly for lower income/entry level workers. cc @R_Boissonnault @MarcMillerVM @PierrePoilievre.
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It is truly wild that a company can be hired by the government to administer a grant program AND select recipients while simultaneously “helping” to write grant applications and take a cut of any grant received. This is fked up.
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Canada would look very different today had provs/feds not destroyed the integrity of the system and let fraud and abuse run rampant. Growth of 2.3 MILLION in 2 years is insane-->. Once the envy of the world, Canada’s immigration system now lies dismantled
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Record population growth with no oversight as immigration minister, record low apartment vacancies, record rent growth, massive deterioration in housing affordability…
Canadian Housing Minister Sean Fraser is resigning from cabinet and doesn’t plan to run in the next election, a move that comes as Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party languishes in the polls with an election looming in 2025
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Kill the LMIA program right now! It is toxic and rife with fraud. Freeze every single application in progress outside of agriculture until the entire system can be overhauled and cleaned up. It is NOT serving the best interests of Canadians . @PierrePoilievre @MarcMillerVM.
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No functioning 🇨🇦 government for the first 2 months of Trump admin during which time we’ll be facing potentially crippling sanctions and lord knows what else. @theJagmeetSingh is solely responsible for this mess. We could be on our way to the polls already. What a selfish loser.
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Sounds a lot like modern slavery->. “For businesses, a major benefit is stability, as the workers' permits are tied to their employer, meaning they can't easily quit to work for a rival business”. Employers turn more and more to temporary foreign workers
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An immigration system that’s lowering national wealth? Yes, the Liberals did that
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Toronto new single-family home sales fall 96% y/y in September. New condo sales down 89%. Data per BILD/Altus Group.
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Good time to remind everyone that historically the pain for borrowers starts AFTER the first rate cut
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LMIA fraud is so common, people think nothing of openly advertising it. $17k for an LMIA (illegal!) and is working for below minimum wage. Find these employers!
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Imagine growing the non-permanent resident cohort, almost all of whom are renters, by 730,000 in 1 year and then being surprised when we have a rental crisis. If you're a renter in this country, you are actively being screwed. cc @JustinTrudeau @HonAhmedHussen @SeanFraserMP
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A Nova Scotia lawyer who previously served as immigration minister where he oversaw a massive population boom in Canada is now being given the housing file and tasked with improving the acute shortage issues in southern Ontario and BC. The arsonist is now the fire marshal.
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13 bedrooms in 1100 sq ft. "Income-generating". Tell me this would still be a thing if we didn't grow the temp resident cohort by 1.5 million in 2 years.
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This is bullshit @TimHortons.
"Tim Hortons accused of exploiting loopholes to replace 🇨🇦 workers with foreign hires.". 1131% Spike: Huge ⬆️ in foreign workers at Tim Hortons since 2019. 7.7% Jobless: Toronto's high unemployment ignored as locals lose out. LMIA Abuse: Companies using loopholes to undercut 🇨🇦
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Snippets from recent report to Toronto council. City planning department can't find and retain staff. 13% job vacancy rate. One main reason: High cost of housing. Can't make it up.
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Imagine having these thoughts AFTER ramping population growth to 1.2 million in one year, driving apartment vacancies to 20-yr lows and rental growth to 30-year highs. This govt is a menace.
Canada’s immigration planning will now take into account housing, health care and infrastructure, minister says
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🇨🇦 beer and wine sales down 3.3% in Nov and down 7.5% y/y. No, it's not people switching to weed. Cannabis sales were down 6.2% m/m and down 11.8% over the past 3 months. What's going on out there?.
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Protests in Brampton this past weekend demanding extended post-graduate work permits. I truly feel bad for the people who came here in good faith and were misled by recruiters, but I don’t see a reasonable pathway to offering all 2.8 million temp residents extended visas/PRs
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#BREAKING. You’re literally the one person in the country in a position to do something about it.
#BREAKING . The Conservative handouts will continue. Justin Trudeau will keep Pierre Poilievre's $60 billion in taxpayer handouts to corporations. Thanks to Pierre and Justin, it's a good day for Greedy Galen Weston and a bad day for you.
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Immigration has now surpassed climate change as a top concern for voters in Ontario. Bigger concern than taxes and interest rates 👀. Canadians want a return to sensible immigration policies. @MarcMillerVM @PierrePoilievre
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"Harper did it" 🙄
@BenRabidoux Harper gov't spent M$'s in 2014 to double the number of int'l students to Canada by 2022. Trudeau gov't now criticized for the program's success and lack of guardrails in the policy.
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We have 2 colleges in Ontario that, per govt data, have international students as 80% of their total enrollment. EITGHY!. Another 7 have more than 50%. Those colleges get to charge much higher tuition but have no responsibility to provide housing . This is wrong. Plain and simple.
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This is unbelievable. Every Canadian needs to watch this. Every grant program is a grift.
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Federal MP telling me via DM that "high immigration supporting house prices" was one key consideration in today's announcement. Shocked, I tell you.
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Canadian GDP came in hotter than expected in Jan. See if you can spot the industry outlier.
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When will we see the college protests in Canada?.
Iraq is poised to slash the legal age of consent from 18 to to 9, allowing men to marry young children. The proposed legal change also deprives women of rights to divorce, child custody and inheritance.
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Quebec does it right. Break laws, you’re gone. Staying here is not a right for non-citizens—> . St-Laurent man who sexually assaulted several women faces deportation after appeal rejected
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Ffs. The iconic Canadian brands like Tim Hortons and Canadian Tire are the worst offenders.
Canadian Tire says they can't find mechanics locally, so they're bringing in foreign workers instead (LMIA) – in the Metro Vancouver area, which is around 2.6M people. @BenRabidoux
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I pulled no punches in my submission to @globeandmail's annual Canadian economic chart-fest. This is the single biggest policy failure of the past decade. cc @MarcMillerVM @SeanFraserMP @JustinTrudeau @PierrePoilievre
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Cry me a goddam river @CollegesOntario . You cannot enrich yourselves by blowing out local rental markets, causing significant damage to the financial wellbeing of low income Canadians and not expect the feds to come to their senses eventually. Provide accommodations or shut up.
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Canada's population has grown by 1.25 MILLION in the past yr. 800,000 of which have been non-permanent residents (NPRs). I testified before the Standing Committee on Finance back in '21 and warned that NPR growth was major concern back then when it was under 200,000. Deaf ears!
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The premier who oversaw the decimation of affordable housing in BC by turning a blind eye to rampant money laundering while her MLAs were buying up investment properties sees an opportunity here. God help us. @AlderLaneEggs @scoopercooper.
After a lifetime of public service Justin Trudeau has stepped aside as both Leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister of Canada. I want to thank him as a Canadian for his service to the country that he so clearly loves. I wish him and his family well. As a lifelong Liberal.
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Risk happens fast. Going from 4% monthly price gains with insane bidding wars to flat pricing in Toronto creates all sorts of problem.
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Bank of Canada has updated their housing affordability measure as of Q2, and it. is. FUGLY!
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Latest 🇨🇦 population data is absolutely bonkers. I suspect the silent majority of Canadians are both in favor of strong immigration but very concerned with negative externalities associated with THIS level of growth. Is too much of a good thing still a good thing?
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Temporary resident asylum claims made within country continue to surge as feds try to tighten pathways to PR. We're stupid if we think this doesn't reflect rampant abuse of Canada's generosity and compassion. Our immigration system is deeply dishonest & in need of massive reform
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Banger chart here from CIBC and Urbanation. Thoughts and prayers.
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Cdns will hate it, but here's what should be done re taxes on RE. -Lifetime cap on tax-free gains on principal residences. -Raise property taxes but w deduction against income earned domestically. -Cut development charges. -Raise taxes on vacant land that is zoned for development.
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Can we just have a goddam election already? Disfunction is not even the word.
At last report, journalists who are in the FES lockup have not been given the documents as Finance scrambles to figure out what they are going to do. “Unprecedented” doesn’t even come close to what is happening here.
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Absolutely not!. If you incentivize illegal immigration, you’ll get much more of it. This idea needs to be denounced in the strongest possible terms by all parties . @JustinTrudeau @MarcMillerVM @PierrePoilievre @theJagmeetSingh.
Watch as Toronto Deputy Mayor and Spadina-Fort York Councillor Ausma Malik calls for a path to "regularization" for all "undocumented" migrants. This is all a call for citizenship for illegal immigrants, including people ordered deported. Watch and RP #topoli #cdnpoli
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This is a crazy stat. Canada’s immigration system is so beyond broken.
1 in 4 people on welfare in Ontario is an asylum seeker. That alone was costing the Province $500 million per year. The Federal govt opens up the taps and Provinces have to pay for it. And then when it fails Trudeau LPC supporters blame the Province. Everyone suffers in the end
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Countries ruled by the CCP. Cc @TerribleMaps @scoopercooper.@JustinTrudeau @cafreeland @PierrePoilievre
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🇨🇦 GDP comes in softer than expected in Q1. Per capita down 0.7% q/q and diverging even further from US trend
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Terrible Cdn retail sales print. Worst I've seen since early days of COVID. Big drop in core sales. Cdn consumers really starting to feel it.
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This is one heck of a tone change after years of playing the xenophobia card on anyone questioning immigration policy. Housing crisis was obvious for years. Only now that the polls have turned against them are they open to this. Time to go!.
Canadian government won’t rule out changing immigration targets to address housing challenges, Fraser says
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Just when you think Canadians cant possibly be taxed any more, I paid a 3% “honest to goodness fee” tonight, evidently used to maintain the quality of the food and establishment. It was a Chucks Steakhouse 🤦♂️. Won’t be doing that again
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NDP…the party of labour 🙄. To all low-wage workers, @theJagmeetSingh has allowed you to be thrown under the bus.
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1/.This uptick in 🇨🇦 business insolvencies is remarkable. Almost unbelievable. Highest # of filings since 2006 in Jan. Here's the question: With CERB payments due in January, how much of this is due to fake firms that were set up to collect pandemic benefits and are now folding?
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That is madness. Huge LMIA demand amid rapidly rising unemployment = fraud. Once again @MarcMillerVM acted and removed LMIA points towards CRS scores on PR applications only after years of clear abuse and only after the horses were out of the barn. Canadians deserve better.
🚨 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗟𝗠𝗜𝗔 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘀 amidst 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗨𝗻𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁: 2024 Q3 Highlights👇. • Approved LMIA Applications: 𝟮𝟰,𝟭𝟳𝟯.• Approved Positions: 𝟰𝟵,𝟭𝟮𝟭. Top Province for Approved LMIA Positions:.🏆 𝗢𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼. Top 3 Occupations by.
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Me thinking I understand just how badly the Liberals fked up the immigration file and then learning more crazy shit every day
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.@scoopercooper doing his thing. Wild stuff here. "Since 2015, the whistleblower concluded, more than 10 Toronto-area HSBC branches issued at least $500M in loans to diaspora buyers claiming exaggerated incomes or non-existent jobs". = great subscription
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It’s an open secret. I have a working theory that fraud in LMIAs is distorting labour market data. Headline “job growth” but simultaneous huge surge in long-term unemployment. Weird. I think we may be seeing residual “hiring” from economically insensitive actors who sold LMIAs.
I found a business in India selling LMIAs. He guarantees the visa and says he will charge $ after approval. He’s currently hiring for chefs, servers, teachers and lab assistants. Absolute madness. @DanielBordmanOG @TheophanesRex @Bratt_world @ClydeDoSomethin @truckdriverpleb
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If there was a “whites only” rental ad, I would hope it would be called out. I reject the idea that this should be normalized and accepted in certain ethnic communities.
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House prices in Canada have risen so quickly that a 20% correction would only bring them back to September 2020 levels.
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We've got fraudsters and money launderers running amok in Canada, and @CanRevAgency is busy focusing on auditing and disallowing medical travel claims for folks likes my mother in law who they argue should have gotten cancer treatment at a SLIGHTLY closer hospital. Bullshit!.
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