TradeButWhy
@tradebutwhy
Followers
13,737
Following
198
Media
919
Statuses
7,651
Former online poker pro turned crypto trader
Joined March 2018
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
महात्मा गांधी
• 133799 Tweets
からくりサーカス
• 94176 Tweets
WONWOO
• 86853 Tweets
ケンタッキー
• 85736 Tweets
ニンテンドーミュージアム
• 69065 Tweets
リネット
• 54007 Tweets
#swallows
• 48132 Tweets
原神コラボ
• 34475 Tweets
フォーエバーヤング
• 32494 Tweets
BTS NUNEW 1ST CONCERT EP2
• 27651 Tweets
OFF THE MASK COMING SOON
• 26527 Tweets
青木選手
• 25907 Tweets
FAYEYOKO BTS 1ST FANMEET
• 23583 Tweets
青木さん
• 18376 Tweets
ラムジェット
• 15351 Tweets
Alcaraz
• 14185 Tweets
ジャパンダートクラシック
• 13933 Tweets
Burberry Art Space
• 13527 Tweets
TORE
• 13246 Tweets
サンライズジパング
• 12429 Tweets
#ミラクル9
• 11746 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
The mathematical risk/reward of selling here is horrible.
The emotional risk/reward of selling here could be huge.
Let me explain... /1
141
750
4K
Ran Neuner going "holy shit" after drawing that trendline is literally the embodiment of the crypto trader meme video lmao
“Technical analysis” in its worst form
157
305
2K
The biggest risk in crypto right now is that many people assume this very thing.
Have had several normie friends text me about how they want to take advantage of "the cycle" this time.
One heard about Bitcoin on the radio.
One told me he plans to put $1000 in memecoins.
One
This is all gonna get so much more ridiculous if the $69k breakout plays out anything like $20k for $BTC
26
18
279
114
51
1K
Agree with
@cobie
and think most of this was simply the echo bubble everyone was talking about a while ago
28
65
930
But don't underestimate the stress a multi-year bear market brings, and how much mental & financial pain & suffering you may still have to endure.
If you're depending on your portfolio, I'd argue the emotional r/r may be more important to you than the mathematical one.
/10
27
34
641
So, mathematically, selling here is kind of stupid. You've probably already lost 50-70% since the top, and at best you avoid another equal drawdown. There's no asymmetry left. You are a late seller.
To make things even worse, the potential long term upside is still massive.
/4
9
34
569
I have a very strong feeling of "my job here is done" after my last 50k btc buys, somehow I think the easy money paradigm in crypto is over
Not saying there won't be opportunities anymore but I think of 2017-2021 as parallel to the poker boom 2007-2010 where there was such a
35
45
563
On the other hand, if you're young/single, have a couple $10k-$100k sitting in crypto but also have a good job, it's not really worth it to start selling now. It's not life-changing money & you'd probably be better off just buying more every month trying to win big long term.
/8
3
21
507
The point is not that "maybe this is the top", it's that we we may be later in the cycle than we think.
It can both be true we are in the last innings, and also still double from here.
You need to be planning to decrease risk from here on out, not add to it or rotate elsewhere.
37
18
514
I just realized how much I learned about “macro” in 2022 and how it literally helped jack shit navigating the market
I probably would’ve done better if I was as dumb as I was in 2018
20
20
422
Because the long term asymmetry if crypto wins is larger than what you risk losing, and you don't really need it anyway - it doesn't affect your life. Only your mind.
This space could easily 100x long term if it succeeds.
/9
2
14
384
The Woenigsegg WWGT 2008 is the latest and final addition to my garage. Only 28 exist in the entire metaverse & it's not for sale.
However, I have 6 cars now and my garage only fits 5.
To celebrate I will give away 1 to someone who follows me & retweets this. LFG
@WilderWorld
96
379
363
The reason this cycle is different is because everyone was anticipating it to be the same
7
39
357
Good trades have asymmetry: the reward if you win should be many multiples of what you risk losing.
For example, buying ETH at $2k if you think it's going to $20k is great - a R/R of 1:9 - assuming you never sell at a loss. You win 9 times what you risk losing.
/2
5
13
334
I tried to find a compelling project below $100m cap and this is the one I'm most excited about.
mStable $MTA
✅ DeFi
✅ $75m market cap
✅ revenue generating & governance
✅ liquidity pools
✅ staking
✅ backed by 3AC, Alameda & DeFiance
But what is it? 👉 /1
19
48
334
Vice versa, selling Bitcoin at $40k because you think it's going to $20k, but also buying back at $60k if you realize you were wrong - is horrible. The R/R is 1:1.
This means you need to be right more than 50% of the time to make it profitable, but there is no way to win big.
/3
2
9
325
That being said, we are human beings with lives that cost money. The number in your portfolio tracker going up and down is real.
The emotional risk/reward is important. If you lose another 50% or more, how would that impact your life? How much does it change?
/5
4
5
297
The bigger your responsibilities, the bigger your portfolio, and the less other income you have - the more you might want to consider selling late. It buys you safety and peace of mind. That's arguably worth a lot more than missing out on some potential gains.
/7
3
5
288
This phenomenon is especially tricky because each cycle teaches you something that traps you in the next
2017-2019 "the btc rotation"
This cycle there was a constant seesaw between btc and alts as a category to bid. The game was timing when each was over, so naturally you learn
The definition of insanity is repeatedly trying to long ETHBTC when longing SOLBTC (or SOLETH) is the much better trade in a bullish environment
Over the first 6-7 years of ETH's life there was a lot of uncertainty and lack of education around $ETH. There were a lot of Bitcoin
136
178
1K
20
34
277
Ethereum 2017: the internet of money should not cost more than 5 cents per transaction
Ethereum 2023: ethereum is b2b and not meant to serve individual users
35
29
279
If your fund went down because were massively overlevered in literal ponzis on the most crucial directional pivot in the entire crypto cycle, I don’t think you can claim the “most succesful fund” title.
You had one job - managing risk - and you literally failed at it.
@ledgerstatus
I’m a trader running the most successful fund in crypto. My job is to take risk and invest. If 2 top 10 coins go to zero, rest down 80%+, and one of our largest exchanges uses our own funds leaking our positions to liquidate the final leg, it is going to be hard to stay afloat.
265
18
256
20
14
279
Do you have a stable income, or do you live off your portfolio? Do you live in your mom's basement, or do you have a family? What about your debts?
Is your portfolio less than what you make in a year, or is it worth 10 times that?
/6
1
4
267
Losing more money might make you a lot unhappier and stressed out, relative to the extra happiness and joy more wealth brings.
/6
1
6
250
Majority of bitcoin maxis are basically 1st cycle shitcoin traders that lost too much of their stack, decided to never buy anything but bitcoin ever again, and stopped learning anything new since
18
22
254
Does anyone else feel like after the whole FTX collapse nothing really seems all that big of a deal anymore
17
9
240
Imagine thinking you "missed" the SOL pump because it went higher a couple days in a row already
Think bigger
14
42
210
People really need to stop thinking in terms of “this has never happened to Bitcoin before”
10 red weeks
closing below 200wma
bear market below old high
monthly rsi <45
…
The sample size is meaningless and the world looks completely different. There can always be a first.
11
23
215
I'd attribute 80% of my wealth in crypto to two things:
1) Wealth concentration, I'm usually all in 1 coin.
2) Going into cash when you feel the cycle is over, even if you're down 60% already.
I'd attribute 80% of my wealth in crypto to two things:
1) Knowing what I want to buy in advanced.
2) Being patient enough to have sidelined capital so that I can bid heavy when others can't.
Don't need to catch the exact bottom or top.
Just ignore froth.
7
5
97
7
23
194
A bull market moves in stages. It begins with smart money flowing to value, and it ends with total retail degeneracy. "Risk on" is a spectrum.
141
16
182
Think of risk on/off as having 5 different gears. Around the beginning of the cycle you want to start in 1st gear and add to it until you're fully allocated in gear 5.
As things get more stupid, financial opportunity goes down and risk of financial ruin goes up, so you want to
@tradebutwhy
Whats wrong with rotating when you feel a trade has played out or a bag is underperforming? Strike while the iron is hot no?
0
0
0
11
22
183
Oil down
Gas down
DXY potential reversal
ES/NQ bouncing off support
Panic dump immediately recovered
ETHBTC about to break multi year range
Are we about to pump?
21
16
164
It continues to amaze me how fast the selloffs are this cycle. Corrections that used to take weeks or months now literally happen in hours or days. This makes a multi-year bear cycle very unlikely.
In 2017 it often took weeks for the market to correct 30% and move coins from the impatient to the patient. Nowadays it happens in mere hours instead.
I assume it's due to leverage in the system which makes selloffs more severe, as one dump triggers the liquidation of the next.
0
2
24
9
28
157
Made a "Must Read" list to cut down on Twitter and it works like a charm.
It includes only my favorites:
@cburniske
@zhusu
@AviFelman
@lightcrypto
@QwQiao
@austerity_sucks
@KyleSamani
@hasufl
@GiganticRebirth
@cobie
@john_j_brown
@mgnr_io
@SplitCapital
@HighStakesCap
@Beetcoin
5
13
166
Most traders analyze the market in order to predict prices. Predicting prices has little to do with successful trading.
What is important is determining when the risk is overwhelmingly in your favor and then controlling that risk.
6
25
161
Reminds me of my old poker coach teaching me all these game theory optimal moves, but then when I'd watch him play he did all these weird unorthodox exploitative and seemingly crazy things.
He told me: "Do as I say, not as I do"
"You don't want to be blown out during a supercycle"
@zhusu
on
@UpOnlyTV
with
@cobie
and
@ledgerstatus
99
118
1K
7
10
154
Reappearance of volatility is largely a function of market compression and not a fresh bull paradigm. Before long we will get bored again, and I believe we still have years to go through some form of time-based capitulation.
Markets don't work in blueprints, but to visualize:
16
16
140
We've had almost 2 years of bear including...
- macro fud
- luna death spiral
- 3ac/celcius/blockfi/ftx/dcg/genesis blowup
- banking collapse
- busd attack
- eth staking fud
- sec suing binance
...and ETHBTC still didn't break down lower. What makes you think it suddenly will?
12
16
140
This 9-month bottom formation in Bitcoin looks like one of the cleanest and easiest identifiable setups since the $3k bottom in 2019. Next few weeks and months should be very fun. My bets are (still) on $45k.
8
11
135
SOL underperformed most alts for 2yrs straight as it was ridiculed due to chain issues, inverse SBF effect and nasty forced selling.
We are at the beginning of a massive mean reversion in this regard & I expect it stay the fastest horse as it simply catches up on relative gains.
3
21
133
I think a reasonable but very unexpected outcome would be to make a smallish new high (say $75-90k ish) followed by a couple quarters of disappointment.
Not a prediction, but given everyone's crazy targets, it wouldn't surprise me at all.
Study gold 2020.
18
4
129
Remember this? Everyone ridiculed him for ringing the alarm bell. Thousands of posts about how the “Big Short generation” was glorfying bears and focusing on the wrong side of the trade.
Burry was called crazy for being right once again.
15
9
128
Balaji's bet is so retarded it's nothing more than a Bitcoin marketing ploy.
1) Other guys can just hedge 1BTC and stand to lose $27k at worst.
2) He's missing out on ~$72m in opportunity cost by not buying $2m of BTC today instead.
3) If Balaji wins, $2m is worth nothing.
Balaji is putting up a $2M bet that Bitcoin will be north of $1M in 90 days.
363
250
3K
10
10
120
8 Reasons to buy $EOS
1)
@block_one_
has more than 140k BTC in their treasury, currently worth about $7 billion dollars. EOS market cap is only $4 billion, the same amount they raised during their 2017 ICO - the biggest coin offering in history by far.
Anyone want to buy $BTC at a 47% discount to current prices? Here's how you can do it.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but $EOS might actually be the best risk/reward in digital assets right now due to their massive
#Bitcoin
holdings.
Thread time 👇
127
140
758
7
46
110
Most of us here have retarded level risk appetite which would get you killed in an instant in any other market, but somehow we get to relive a dotcom sized bubble every 4 years in totally predictable fashion
3
6
119
If you hold here, know that you could:
- suffer another -50% drawdown
- never see some of your coins recover
If you sell here, know that you could:
- be selling in the last 1/3rd of the downtrend
- avoid temporary downside to then buy back higher
8
20
110
Is there any chart at all that looks good vs ETH right now? Can not find a single one
Bullish ETH dominance
9
7
103
At the very start of a bear, people constantly fomo into longs on bounces, thinking the bottom may be in. They are conditioned to take risk.
At the very start of a bull, people constantly panic into shorts on drops, thinking the top may be in. They are conditioned to derisk.
4
10
108
If you put in 1/3rd of your net worth in bitcoin here you lose 13% if we go to $10k and double your net worth if we go to all time highs
Pretty solid asymmetric bet
9
5
106
The ETHBTC crash had absolutely nothing to do with the re-org and was completely within expectations given general market direction and market structure
10
6
106
Do Kwon's ego getting out of hand. Strong "pride comes before the fall" vibes every time I see him parading.
12
7
105
To find the bottom in a capitulation event, forget about things like RSI, oscillators, divergences, moving averages, funding rates, etc. Even support levels.
Turn everything off except for naked price action and volume and watch the hysteria all day. /1
5
23
102
Idk who this friend is but first he swapped all his btc for eth at peak euphoria and then dumped his crypto at the picobottom
Doesn’t seem all that trustworthy to me
9
2
102
@WilderWorld
This is the car I'm giving away for free. A Whevrolet Wova WW 1966. The same model got sold for 0.63ETH on OpenSea already, currently about $2700 worth.
Still allowing people to follow & retweet for a little while, I'll announce the winner later this week!
@WilderWorld
$WILD
25
82
94
1
0
95
Choosing violence today.
Here's what I've been thinking for the past couple months:
Tradfi and politicians backing crypto is not a sign the herd is coming, but that they're already there. We've been pumping on criticism for over a decade and now we're an ad on tv.
When I look
21
5
92
@justinsuntron
Thousands of people have lost everything, several committed suicide, some may go to jail, and you want to start it all over again?
5
0
86
hot take: the death of ethbtc party is potentially real
this chart looks so aids we should seriously entertain the possibility it's never running above its range highs again and loses its relevancy over the years to come as the benchmark for risk appetite
18
3
91
Capital preservation is the most underappreciated strategy in all of crypto twitter
4
9
91
Basically he just paid $2m to get us all talking about dollar hyperinflation.
12
4
87
People suddenly shilling $STX is a follow-up of the Bitcoin NFT hype. It’s been around forever and used to be called Blockstack. Saw a presentation about it in 2018 in Berlin. Why did (almost) nobody care about it before? Be careful buying into the story, it’s all narratives.
10
0
86
@Crypto_McKenna
He had it coming
Do Kwon's ego getting out of hand. Strong "pride comes before the fall" vibes every time I see him parading.
12
7
105
3
8
84
The masculine urge to use your feed as a countersignal after spending 7 years curating it for alpha
3
3
87
@cburniske
I personally have zero faith in my capability of picking winners other than Bitcoin
My main worry with others is the idea at some point they might stop acting as a number-goes-up-perpetually once the hype dies down, and maybe in the long run its price action skews towards more
5
2
87
Patience, we could be in a bear/depression/recovery paradigm for easily two more years. Move slow.
If you zoom out to quarterly candles it kinda looks like Q1 is only the first down quarter of many more to come
5
4
35
5
9
86
ELI5: Open Interest is the total value of open short positions + open long positions. The higher OI, the more speculation is happening in the market through leverage. During
#Bitcoin
's run from $6k to $10k, Bitmex Open Interest grew to an all time high of $1.1 billion. (1/n)
5
20
83
I remember thinking it sounded a little crazy when
@cburniske
was talking on the unchained podcast with cobie about how he was expecting full blown bull euphoria sometime in 2023, and it's only February
“One of the deadliest animals in nature, half a ton in weight, a terrible ornamental, indomitable character, power, muscle, speed, and genius.
A goring thrust of 4,000 kilos, capable of twisting a steel door, destroying a vehicle, and sending your net worth straight to new ATHs”
122
267
2K
6
9
78
@DegenSpartan
visualizing your gameplan, imo it makes no sense at all
probability <5%
by 2030, maybe
7
5
82
I honestly believe the biggest reason why $ZEC has always done so poorly is because it had triple to double digit yearly inflation for all these years.
It's finally about to move into single digit territory.
7
8
83
alt/btc and alt/eth charts are one of the most underappreciated tools for anticipating price action
they can bring a lot of context into certain trends and include lots of hints about when and where to expect acceleration or struggle
12
12
82
Online poker 2006-2014
Crypto trading 2017-2025
think about how lucky we are to be very passionate about something that just so happens to be one of the most effective ways to make a ton of money
32
38
513
11
2
82
Continually going against the grain in a global sell-off is a good way to blow up the entire company. There's a reason why "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" is one of the most famous market wisdoms.
Celsius has topped up the vault further:
-Liquidation price: 16.8k
-23.9k wBTC locked in vault
keeps doubling down
122
127
910
3
9
78
@Hank_xbt
The risk being that we may be closer to the end of the cycle than we think
It's easier to think of it more in time than in price, because it's definitely true we could also still double from here
It's not a top call, it's a wake up call
6
1
76
At first I thought market caps were a bit of a meme like FDV but on the other hand it perfectly explains why some coins are being crushed just because of inflationary pressures while simultaneously being accumulated without its price going up
The perfect example being FIL,
5
4
77
Three people that shaped me as a trader:
1) Brian Shannon (
@alphatrends
)
His book "Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes" teaches you to understand market structure & underlying emotions and dynamics of its participants. Too many just trade lines.
WHY does price move?
2
16
75
My proudest move since the covid crash. Prepared to ride it 25% lower if for some reason it gets even worse.
I don't think we're going straight back into bull mode at all. My best guess is bitcoin will trade again in the 45-70k range for a long time and bore everyone to death
4
2
76
There is no way I'm considering selling here with how massive the monthly bullish engulfing is we just printed
6
2
70
@CardanoDan
@PeterLBrandt
My favorite quote from Peter after 3 years of following his feed:
"The biggest lesson I have learned in 43 yrs of trading: No matter how sure I am about where a market will go, in reality I have no clue"
1
2
73
"Everyone's a genius in a bull market"
Hits different when you see all the expert traders, analysts, fund managers, whales & OGs in your feed being wrong for months on end.
We're all just talking our book and fueling our own narratives.
4
7
74
@Route2FI
The tendency to become extremely obsessed with a single topic, not wanting to go to sleep and waking up earlier than you usually would, just because of how excited you are to start studying it again
3
0
73
@aditya_baradwaj
Rarely read entire threads but this was fun, keep em coming. Kinda reads like a tweet sized Bad Blood. Extra points for the personal pics in between.
1
0
70
"Poker players are great traders!"
Back in 2014 when I quit playing poker and was looking for a job, I wrote this in my resume:
"I have been a successful professional poker player since 2007. It has been my main occupation since and demonstrates I am a self-motivated... /1
5
13
68
SOL trades like it’ll dump 30% some time soon leaving people thinking that was it and then it breaks ath a month later
8
2
68
@HLensss
He didn't write that. His friend did. Since he doesn’t know any details, he didn't feel he should edit it. And because he doesn’t know any details, it's no use asking him what it means. If you've read the preceding tweet, you know as much as he does.
1
0
68
People who started trading in 2020-2021 and made a ton of money recklessly buying fibonacci retracements and triangles now start realizing they aren't the geniuses they thought they were
2
9
64