Kyle (3/AC)
@KyleLDavies
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Run it back @oxfunhq @threearrowzcap $OX #3AC
Joined January 2022
I have meditated for three weeks, no Twitter, only prayer. I have seen the future. And it does not include Bitcoin dying. Rise like a phoenix from the ashes, the $BTC bottom is in.
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In Singapore, during recess, all kids over a BMI of 110% government healthy body range must join TAF Club. Trim and Fit. Singapore obesity rate is <9% of adults compared to >40% of Americans.
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Max fear, $BTC 40% off the top, S&P 3% off the top? . When I was on the mountain meditation, this is the kind of generational event we buy blind.
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I’m much much more bullish BTC’s use case as collateral for stable coin payments than BTC for payments directly.
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I can tell some of you have not executed size before. Let me tell you buying $125mil/day of $BTC for 3 months is a lot.
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Indians privately hold an estimated 25,000+ tonnes of gold worth $1.7T (US national reserves are 8,000 tonnes). If $BTC is to be >$1m, one of the top reasons will be Indian crypto adoption.
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Slowly then quickly, every red state will be pro crypto. #Bitcoin as an ideology is just good politics.
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The universe works in mysterious ways. Over the past year, I’ve seen the highest high and lowest low of my life. I know many reading this have as well. Humanity, community, happiness are worth it. Love.
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$ETH scales with rollups and centralized side chains . $AVAX scales with subnets . $NEAR scales with sharding . $SOL scales with hardware.
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Don’t think I’ve ever seen CT this bearish. Don’t think I will ever see so much cope next week when BTC is back in the mid 40’s.
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Burn the bridges. When the opportunity is right, go all in, no road back. Did this at least twice within living memory, founding 3AC with Su and cutting our FX business to focus on crypto. Made >100x on each burning.
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$BTC is a commodity, not a tech stock. In the great race to own natural resources, hard money will be scarce. Fools watch the Nasdaq while they should be looking at oil, global commodity inflation will be what pushes BTC to 6+ digits.
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Change is coming. Big government, big tech, big pharma, big banking collude to their own agenda. People deserve freedom.
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The idea that the Fed is going to raise rates and taper is bollocks.
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The L1 supercycle is upon us. Billions raised by VC’s are pouring into dApp presales and L1 secondaries. Every L1 has a mid9/low10 figure treasury + ecosystem fund. Support for and usage of dApps are exhibiting strong network effects. Not a cycle, but a flywheel.
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The floor, ceiling, and walls for $BTC is $42k. The universe is at equilibrium.
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In the 1970's the Fed hiked rates from 7% to 20% and gold did an 18x. What will #bitcoin do in the 2020's?.
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.@SBF_FTX I know you've got a lot on your plate, but you've had the time to write multiple letters, and even sign up to a CNBC interview. At this point, the bias coming from MSM, in your support, is aptly recognized by most of crypto as staged.
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I have almost never wanted to buy a coffee with crypto, but I have frequently wanted to buy houses with crypto. OTC real estate - crypto, makes sense to me.
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$BTC is not left, not right, but forward. It is just embraced more tightly by the right side of the hug.
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I am confident the center of Asian crypto is firmly in Dubai for the foreseeable future.
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I want to be clear, I do not respect the Federal Reserve. I do not respect them.
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Feel like every other person I speak to is moving or considering relocating to Dubai. Forward thinking nation!.
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Lesson 1: .Flush out the non believers before the real pump.
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All I see is fear . Fear of a fiat nw number one identifies as, fear of cycles prophesied, fear of what the waifu might say. Chads just bid.
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If the money printer slows down, that just means assets go up a bit slower. Brrr to Brr. My bet is that digital assets still generally crush inflation.
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One of the critical bottom signals necessary for any substantial bull run, is VC bros having views on macro.
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Crypto is much higher stakes now. Countries recognize their citizens own a lot, they can't stop it, and governors can win by embracing #bitcoin.
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The decline of fiat and rise of the individual this decade will be tectonic. Old money elites will lose generations of wealth so fast, they will never recover the status of grandad. A new class will reign, those with #BTC, the proud sovereign individuals.
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Took a ten year hiatus off the gym and realized it was time to get fit. It has been about a year of gym/cardio/diet 6 days a week. Feels good man. This guy fks.
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We were all playing poker against the house, while they looked at our cards, and used our money to bet against us.
Wait so Alameda's Dan Friedberg's previous business "Ultimate Poker" was literally looking at clients' hole cards to then steal money from them?.
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When are we gonna pump crypto and blow out the Jump crypto-Nasdaq correlation spread algo?.
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The USD is a bad metric for performance. It’s too easy to beat. Pick a harder benchmark, denominate in it, like S&P or $BTC.
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Here we go. 4 year cycling. Predicable as always. The Supercycle.
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CT engagement picking up again. Smart money retail about to pile into long term strategic crypto asset allocations.
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Children of the future will identify more closely with the online communities they spend most of their time, rather than the people who sleep nearby and eat common food. Cultural identity is changing.
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This is my bitcoin. There are many like it, but this one is mine. My bitcoin is my best friend. It is my life. I must master it as I must master my life. Without me, my bitcoin is useless. Without my bitcoin, I am useless.
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If the Lord does not give them the promised cascading liquidations, where do macrotards chase? 45k? 48k?.
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Leveraged plankton sold to spot whales at the bottom. The nut worst case scenarios are all priced in. Everyone who owns BTC knows exactly why they own it. #LFG.
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I walk into the yacht club. First guy is a property scion, owns no crypto, seems sub 50 IQ. Second is balls deep in alts, perhaps a poor gambler. The third is an oil baron, she’s a savvy investor and is allin BTC. On the way out, she spanks the first guy in front of his mom.
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I wasn’t grinning, I just have big teeth. But I will never apologize for blowing up. We were traders who devoutly believed in up only forever. Still do. Lenders chose to gamble their own low risk clients funds on a high risk thesis. Pointing fingers is for cowards. Remilio
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Grandpa, what was the world like when $LUNA was less than three digits?.
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Very excited to support $LUNA 🌕.
EXCLUSIVE: Luna Foundation Guard raises $1 billion to form bitcoin reserve for UST stablecoin. by @RyanJamesWeeks .
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Immigrants = Entrepreneurs. The more immigrants, the more jobs will be created.
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The most understood and most hated bull run in the history of crypto commodities.
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Mad respect for @bitfinex . Some of you may not remember how dominant they were or realize how good they are. Wronged by hackers, plagued by fudders, on a long redemption arc to justice.
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I don’t care which crypto tribe, I want to see crypto winners hold crypto long term. If the end game is to sell to fiat, it’s all a fugazi. A crypto denominated individual is truth, integrity, longevity.
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Three years ago no crypto investor watched the stock market, commodities, or geopolitics that closely. Crypto is now on the world’s stage.
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Think I allocated more venture capital in the past 6 months than the previous 10 years lol.
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Memecoins may exhibit a Pareto distribution, but stablecoins are winner take all based on liquidity. There will be distribution only by significant differentiation. And for the holy grail, the decentralized stablecoin, the winner will be $UST $LUNA.
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Capitulation flows coming through. Those with cash twap. Those with coins survive. Love long and prosper.
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Got a lot of new friends last night. What’s the best way to grow $LUNA and $UST?.
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Somehow the boomers got to ETH, a couple even discovered SOL. Is there a boomer Facebook Messenger group we can tell them about the other L1’s?.
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The youth have no interest in paying for a bankrupt welfare state. Same as every generation before them, they want and deserve freedom to succeed. The only acceptable solution to a debt inflation spiral is a new incorruptible system. #Bitcoin.
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S&P is 6% off the highs. If I sneeze, we're at ATH's. How you not bullish anon?.
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Dear Macrofriends, if S&P hits ATH, are we calling for 69k $BTC as well or no?.
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Everyone is convinced the macro environment has changed investing and is sitting on cash earning -10% real rates with no plan of what to buy. Whoopty freakin doo.
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Could name a couple dozen people who made 9figs with us last cycle and a handful who cracked 10figs. Some sold and are still up a lot, others like us didn’t. I am so proud. Let’s do it again.
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Users win when they have free choice of scalability. I choose them all. $AVAX $LUNA $NEAR $SOL.
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If I still had 10b, the first thing I'd do is buy FTX and switch it back on. The playbook's clear. Couple tweaks - close Alameda, run the investment side more like 3AC, slash the amphetamine budget. Otherwise it'd be the same best in class user first product. Run it back turbo.
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While I’m in favor of no limits, it makes much more sense to have an age cap than a floor for accredited investors. What if they are too old to understand new tech.
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Favorite part of the Lex Fridman / Saylor podcast was when Saylor says, "let me put on my bitcoin hat." My man, what else you wearing?.
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If we rally to 60k, 2017 PTSD experts will know that they were right. If we rally over ATH’s, they will simply return to their anxiety caves ready to beartard the next local bottom.
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I expect the world to become more geographically nationalist over the next decade. Resist this. Join global communities. Embrace new ideas. Stay free.
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SBF can try to argue he was a child playing in an unregulated offshore sandbox. But Barry was a full grown man who architected the entire highly regulated lending daisy chain from his left to right pocket. It’s going to get messy af.
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In 2018 there was forced selling of ETH as ICO’s raised tons and were liquidating. In 2022 the Nasdaq had a 3 sigma correction with the Fed spooking rates + QT and Putin threatening WW3 in Ukraine. These are not the same.
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If only you could buy a significant minority stake in a country, join the board, and fix it.
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It is profitable to be early and to be right. 1) VC’s are structured only to be early. If they are wrong about passing a deal, they are frequently incapable of buying on the secondary market and thus are forever wrong.
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I took several courses in high school that were college level. In college, I took literally the same course - down to the same textbook and aced them. Wtf was I doing.
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$BTC relentless spot bidding and there are muggles calling for a dcb, LOL.
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My biggest lesson among many:. Never trust, always verify . 5/n.
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BTC backed stable coin payments is the most battle tested sustainable business in crypto. Tether, Genesis, Blockfi, many others built multi-billion $ businesses on this tried and true model.
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When Do launches his next project, I'm blind max bidding. 3AC lost a half billy on his last one, will make it all back on this one. That's the beauty of capitalism.
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An underappreciated virtue of college is the mixing of peoples. For the first time, many children befriend others with different cultures, socioeconomic backgrounds, and ambitions. If college is to be replaced, do people retreat to their walled gardens of same think?.
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The alt coin recovery will be K shaped, but the fall will be down shaped.
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2023 Predictions. 1) SBF pleads guilty and ~100 ppl are indicted. He serves no days in jail this year. 2) Genesis and Grayscale face class actions. The SEC brings a criminal case against DCG for improprieties between affiliated subsidiaries.
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Timing the market is a skill unto itself, called trading. For those who build, there is no need to burden oneself with market timing. Build and release. Follow your alpha.
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Russia feels like a pivotal moment. How far will they embrace crypto? Will China follow? Should I be watching oil correlations? I have a lot to meditate on.
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