Integrated Kyle e/acc
@KyleSamani
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Managing Partner @multicoincap . Telegram: . Opinions are my own; not a solicitation; not an offer for investment advisory services
Austin, Texas
Joined June 2009
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Pinned Tweet
0/ Today, Multicoin Capital is proud to announce a special contribution to match all donations of SOL tokens to the Sentinel Action Fund (
@sentinelaction
) up to $1M for SOL donations made over the next 10 days.
Let’s talk about the who, what, why and how.
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0/ Why the next bear market will not be like the last one
And in fact, we may not have a bear market at all
Or we may have half a bear market, depending on your perspective
A thread
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0/ Some thoughts on Vision Pro
From someone who was one of the first builders on Google Glass.... 10 years ago!
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The most important theme of 2022 is going to be composability
The next generation of apps are going to leverage a multitude of composable crypto primitives to deliver experiences that were not possible before
My keynote from the 2021 Multicoin Summit:
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0/
@elonmusk
getting a lot of hate these days, both from crypto maxis, and the media
Probably the largest source of hate is "hey he is manipulating markets, this is bad and not fair, what is he doing"
With very high probability, this is the wrong interpretation
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Solana DeFi teams, now is your opportunity to shine
It is always darkest before dawn
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0/ DeFi derivatives
Probably the single most important question in DeFi over the next few years
A thread on how we're thinking about it
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So a number of LPs asked me about IOTA today. My response:
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21/ In summary
1) The next bear market will not look like the last
2) More likely that tech crypto goes through more short-lived 2018 SaaS bear markets (eg May-June 2021)
3) The decoupling is real
4) When BTC gets flipped, things get *really* interesting
{fin}
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0/ We led a $30M round in
@RenderToken
earlier this year
It’s our 2nd large Metaverse investment, after Arweave
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0/ One theory of the metaverse is that the company that controls the social graph, will have the strongest influence on the Metaverse
So I’ve been thinking a lot about how to get the social graph data out of Facebook and Twitter, etc
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EOS
What's the stupidest investment you ever made?
Mine was well before crypto.
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Solana
The next step for crypto is to make payments instant and free globally.
This will take lots of work from all of us, Coinbase included, getting layer 2's integrated, better on-ramps, simpler UX/onboarding, etc.
A magic threshold would be getting the average payment under 1 cent
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People like to say that
@solana
fundamentals have not changed in the last X months
That’s not true
One very important thing has changed
There is now incontrovertible proof that the solana network can run *at scale*:
1) while maintaining ~0 fees for normies
2) without falling
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12/ This is why I expect SOL and ETH to substantially outperform BTC through the next “bear market”
The tech money doesn’t care about macro
They just want to be long the stuff that they think is going to change the world
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.
@APompliano
is right
JP Morgan is trying to create a privatized overlay money system on top of the Fed's USD
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0/
@solana
Breakpoint is here!
There are thousands of people in Lisbon, and everyone wants to get connected to the right people
So here’s a thread on some of those people, and who they are trying to connect with
I think everyone’s DMs are open. Don’t be shy!
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0/ Predicting the future is hard
The most common way to do this is by using data, and extrapolating from the past
This works ok when things are changing in a predictable-ish way
But sometimes things change unpredictability
2022 will be a year of unpredictable changes
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There are going to be a ton of air drops for
@Solana
@solanamobile
Saga owners over the next 12 months
h/t
@kankanivishal
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I don't think I've ever seen an entire category collapse this fast, ever
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In the 1600s, commodity market traders would watch for incoming ships with telescopes, and front-run the market by short selling when they saw ships sitting low in the water, implying that they had more supplies
Awesome
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Hypothesis: biggest mistake tech people make when evaluating financial markets is to think exponentially when the market acts linearly. Biggest mistake finance people make when evaluating tech is to think linearly when tech evolves exponentially
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0/ A thread on decision making (DM)
Both personally, and in the context of investment decisions at Multicoin
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Solana
@TeslaGong
@mishaboar
@DogecoinFdn
Not recently. What matters imo is lowering fees, decreasing block time & increasing block size. A single layer network with exchanges as de facto layer 2 seems like the simplest solution for a medium of exchange.
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This is very exciting... a p2p VPN with distribution to millions of users
Could be one of the biggest breakthroughs in privacy on the internet since the advent of SSL
h/t
@brave
@BrendanEich
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On Saturday, I completed the most difficult physical activity of my life: a 200 mile bike ride
6am start time. Finished around 9:55pm. Start in the dark, finish in the dark.
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We launched Multicoin with ~$2M in 2017
Today north of $3B in AUM
2 people in IR. We don’t outbound. Just inbound
We failed to raise VF2 in 2019
All my soft circled LPs pulled out in Sept 2008. I launched anyway with $5 M. My first trade was Oct 1, 2008. I put 50% in $BKNG at $55 / share - today its $3859. Launched VC in 2010. By 2021 had over $20 B in assets - mostly from returns. Just. Get. Started.
@PittmanRadio
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I gotta say I was pretty skeptical when
@elonmusk
bought Twitter. Like many others, I just wanted him to focus on electric cars and rockets and the like
It's been less than 2 years, and holy shit I'm glad he bought Twitter
Thank you Elon!
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Take as much risk as possible
Don’t stop working out even at 80+ hour work weeks
it’s my 26 birthday and as a gift please give advice you wish you knew at 26
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9/ The train has left the station: all of the tech builders and investors have underwritten tech crypto as having a meaningful probability of reshaping commerce, finance, and the fabric of society at large
And they are comfortable meeting on that and holding for years
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0/ A counterintuitive lesson on fund structures
TLDR - hedge funds are better structures for *long term* investing than venture structures
I say this having run one of each for 3-4 years now
A thread for entrepreneurs and LPs
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I know it sucks rn
But keep chewing glass
It will get better
wagmi
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First paragraph of ATOM 2.0 paper is absolute fire
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Have spoken with various teams around wormhole, exchanges, Stablecoins issuers, etc in the last 24 hours
Remarkable to see everyone - including fiercely direct competitors - come together to resolve the situation as fast as possibly
Wagmi
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3/ What does Musk know?
Crypto is big, and getting bigger, and that he can do something(s) amazing with it
The most probable explanation for his actions therefore is that he is figuring that out right now
Long Musk!
{fin}
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Working on my 2024 predictions rn
@helium
and
@Hivemapper
will be two of the leading torch bearers of the industry by EOY 2024
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1/ Broadly speaking, there are two cohorts of people in crypto
Money crypto
Tech crypto
The zeitgeist of the space was dominated by money crypto people from 2011-2017
Since 2017, tech crypto has come to dominate the zeitgest
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0/ Sushi and super apps. A 🧵
Sushi just turned 1. I think Sushi is little bit lost, and doesn’t know what it wants to be when it grows up
Multicoin owns some SUSHI
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Thoughts on
@THORChain
1) 2nd exploit was not new bug. It was already there
2) it was known to be unaudited. Obv a little irresponsible, but also to be expected
3) Thorchain is probably the most complex crypto thing in the world other than bleeding edge ZKP stuff
Wgmi
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1/ Musk is probably *the single most long term oriented human on the planet*
He is trying to
a) save the planet from humanity's gluttony (Tesla)
b) save the human species from idiosyncratic risk tied to Earth (SpaceX)
Literally no one operates on this timescale
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The future of Ethereum is Coinbase
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0/ The new
@CreamdotFinance
Iron Bank is one of the coolest things I've seen in DeFi in a while
Why?
It actually *creates* value for tokens like YFI and ALPHA
Huh?
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The technical term for this behavior is gaslighting
Oh wow, this is pretty bad from
@RenzoProtocol
1st, a large portion of the tokens are going to investors and team
2nd, looks like they’re trying to skew how bad it looks with the design of the pie chart
Notice the bottom “half” is 62%, whereas the two 2.5%’s appear to be ~20%
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@Jason
@cz_binance
respectfully,
1) these claims are factually incorrect
2) your interpretations are the opposite of what is actually happening
happy to discuss any time!
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2/ So, what is Musk doing in crypto?
I don't know
But
He is almost certainly playing the game at a level that you fail to appreciate
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0/ Thoughts on predictions markets (PM)
TLDR - what matters is regularity
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What are the most interesting Cosmos based chains being built?
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10/ There is a huge amount of capital out there that will never believe in BTC because they don’t believe in owning non-productive assets
There isn’t a single investor in the world that doesn’t believe that software isn’t eating the world
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Serious question
Who in the world thinks it's a good idea to buy ETC in the middle of a 51% attack?
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0/ There's an old saying that fundraising is weird, bc the skills required to be good at fundraising are not the skills required to accel as CEO
I used to believe that
I no longer do
The entirety of the challenge of fundraising can be distilled to a single skill: communication
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How do you think we’re going to render the metaverse?
We’re excited to announce a new technical partnership with
@solana
and
@metaplex
!
The future of the
#Metaverse
is NOW, on the Render Network!
$RNDR
#RNDR
#Solana
#Metaplex
#SolanaBreakpoint
#BreakpointLisbon
@SolanaConf
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I have watched every major keynote by every major tech co over the last ~15 years
And the Meta keynote is by far the best and most important one
January 2007 iPhone keynote will be looked back on as a rounding error
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Biggest problem in Bitcoin ecosystem is fragmentation of standards
BRC20
Inscriptions
Runes
God knows how many L2s
UX is going to rapidly degrade. All ecosystem participants - wallets, indexers, market makers, devs, etc. - will suffer
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The next 100M crypto users aren't going to use seed phrases
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BAYC surpassing punks in market cap is a harbinger of utility layer 1s (ETH, SOL, etc) surpassing BTC
Lindy is nonsense
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Spent roughly 3 hours playing with Apple Vision Pro today. Some thoughts
1) the pass-through fidelity is impressive, but not yet ready for mainstream adoption. Things are still a little too grainy
2) the hand tracking is butter smooth, no matter where you have your hands (in
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As we enter this new crypto bull market, lots of you are going to launch new funds
When we started in 2017, we made all kinds of stupid mistakes
A lot of people helped us. So we are looking to pay it forward
DM if you'd like to chat. Always happy to help new managers
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6/ Tech people by and large don’t care about any of that stuff
They just want to build cool new things
If the price of BTC-USD goes down 50% because of gov actions, there is no real reason why that has to impact what people build, or phase investors who invest in tech crypto
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Multicoin Capital had 0 LUNA or UST exposure
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So, Apple just announced yesterday that they’re allowing devs to go around Apple Pay for in-app purchases
This was probably the single biggest risk to mass market adoption of crypto
And prices didn’t really react
Long your longs with longs. LFG
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For the first time, we decided to share some of our thoughts publicly on areas we're excited for in 2024
Everyone's DMs are open, feel free to reach out!
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11/ Over the next ~5 years, every pool of capital around the world will be buying crypto
100% of them will invest in tech crypto
< 100% of them will invest in money crypto
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19/ Once BTC is flipped, it’s pretty much game over for BTC
A large part of the value prop of BTC is that it’s the largest and most liquid
Once those stop being true, it has even less to offer
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Solana right now is making serious inroads in onboarding web2 devs at the highest rate in the history of crypto
I'm gonna get chastised for saying this but the level of organic developers interest in
@solana
now is absolutely on 🔥now even for a non-dev like me.
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This is bigger than you think
Brave is the most interesting canvas for crypto integration out there
LFG
News from the
@BrendanEich
@aeyakovenko
@SolanaConf
stage:
-
@Solana
integration plans in-browser for Brave's +42M monthly active users
- THEMIS to be built on Solana
- Expansion of $BAT via wrapped $BAT utility into the Solana ecosystem.
Here comes the 🔆, LFG!
$SOL
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Just met with an institutional manager. $30B fund. Min check size $300M. Current crypto allocation: $0
We aren't even close to the top
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We are hiring for investment team!
To apply, please write a thesis on the subject of your choice in crypto. The weirder and more non-consensus, the better. Only requirement is that it's as good as what's on our blog
Please email to
@SpencerApplebau
and
@shayonsengupta
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Excited to announce one of our largest investments ever,
@zama_fhe
, in which we co-led a $73M round along with
@protocollabs
Zama is the world's leading cryptography company focused on FHE
FHE is going to reshape the fabric of computing
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My two favorite sources of alpha
1) Duration
2) Willing to lose 100% of your capital
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the
@jump_firedancer
client will be 200x more efficient in ability to receive and parse transactions in real time
insanity
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Avalanche, Celo, Fantom all announcing LM programs to copy-paste EVM code in the last week
1) All of them pursuing the same strategy is obviously bad for all of them
2) Stifling growth of their own ecosystems
3) Increasing regulatory risk
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Henceforth Solana shall be known as Bitcoin Satoshi’s Vision
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RWA people
please stop calling them RWAs
this framing is value destructive. you are telling the people who are not in crypto that you do not live in the real world, and that you want the real world to come to bizarro crypto world
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0/ Some thoughts on the BTC halvening
TLDR - it is *extremely* bullish
There will probably be lots of volatility +/- 60 days the halvening, but that is not the point of the this thread
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14/ The world actually does not care about non-productive assets
They want productive assets
As they learn about crypto, they are gonna buy the productive things in far more size than the non-productive things
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At BTC Miami in May, I made two bets with
@lawmaster
, each for 1 ETH
1) That ETH will flip BTC by EOY 2021
2) That SOL will flip ETH by EOY 2022
Let the record show that I have paid 1 ETH for losing bet
#1
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If it weren't for ETH, BTC would likely be at ~30% of its current value
The 2017 ICO bubble Drew all the attention to crypto, and those watchers are now allocating to BTC
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Frankendancer on mainnet
Firedancer on testnet
Shipping multi year insanely ambitious projects on schedule
Insanity
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0/ I've been thinking (and tweeting!) about AI over the last 6 months
There are a lot of crypto x AI intersections - far more than what I've outlined in this post
But this post outlines what I think are 4 of the most important
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0/ The single most important question in NFT land is
How do you enable the long tail of creators - think 25M+ around the world - to generate say $50-100k / year in income, so they can self sustain
A thread
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Watching a
@ProjectSerum
UI to see the order book flash on the right and update every 400ms is just magical
It looks and feels *identical* to a CEX, but underneath, it's a censorship resistant DEX
Welcome to the future
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Probably the sector of
@solana
that has been compounding most quietly, and is poised for success is payments
1) NYDFS blessing a few weeks ago
2) outstanding on-chain transfer volumes for USDC and USDT
3) Visa integration
4) shopify integration
5) token extensions about to hit
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